The fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2021 compared with the same period in 2020 accelerated to 2% from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020, the State Statistics Service said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) plans to achieve an increase in the volume of net bank loans to business entities and individuals in relation to GDP at the level of 22% in 2024, which is 8.1 percentage points more than as of 2020 (13.9%).
The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine worsened expectations of real GDP growth in the updated macro forecast from 4.6% to 4.1% in 2021, from 4.3% to 3.8% in 2022, ex-Minister Ihor Petrashko said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-March 2021 expanded by 1.4% compared to January-March 2020, to $1.315 billion from $1.296 billion.
Consumer prices in Ukraine at the end of April 2021 year-over-year slowed down from 8.5% to 8.4% at the end of March.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) plans to achieve an increase in the volume of net bank loans to business entities and individuals in relation to GDP at the level of 22% in 2024, which is 8.1 percentage points more than as of 2020 (13.9%).
The balances on the government’s foreign currency Single Treasury Account (STA) as of May 5, 2021 amounted to $1.6 billion, head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Bohdan Danylyshyn said.
The total public debt of Ukraine in April 2021 increased by 1.29% in U.S. dollars to $91.33 billion and by 0.8% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.534 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
Prices in the Ukrainian industry in April 2021 grew by 1.2%, while in March – by 1.6%, in February – by 7.8%, in January – by 5.2%.
Industrial production in Ukraine in April 2021 increased by 13% compared to April 2020, while in March the growth was 2.1%, in February and January – a fall of 4.6% and 4%, respectively.
The retail trade turnover of Ukraine in April 2021 compared to the same month in 2020 in comparable prices increased 34.3%, while in March it grew by 13.1%.
On Tuesday, June 15, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal will take part in the “Ukraine 30. Economy without oligarchs” All-Ukrainian Forum, which will be held in Kyiv on June 14 to June 16.
According to the forum’s program, the opening of the Ukraine 30. Economy without oligarchs All-Ukrainian Forum is scheduled for Monday, June 14, with the participation of Prime Minister Shmyhal at 10:30.
On Tuesday, June 15, President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak at 10:30, and Prime Minister Shmyhal will speak at 10:40.
On Wednesday, June 16, the third day of the forum will be opened by Head of the State Property Fund Dmytro Sennychenko.
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B’ with a stable outlook, the agency said on its website.
Ukraine intends to increase the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) by 2025 to $15 billion per year, while at the end of 2020 their outflow amounted to $420 million, and in 2021 the National Bank predicts a recovery in FDI inflows at the level of $3 billion.
Ukraine in 2020 climbed from 80th to 63rd place in the Social Progress Index among 163 countries with score of 73.38 points versus 66.97 in 2019, according to the index data.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its inflation forecast from 7% to 8% in 2021, expecting inflation to return to the 5% target in H1 2022.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-February 2021 decreased by 55.3% compared to January-February 2020, to $ 256.5 million from $ 573.2 million, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in March 2021 accelerated year-over-year to 8.5% from 7.5% in February, from 6.1% in January and from 5% in December 2020.
The total public debt of Ukraine in March 2021 decreased in hryvnia by UAH 38.68 billion, to UAH 2.514 trillion, in dollars – by $ 1.24 billion, to $ 90.17 billion, the Ministry of Finance said.
Prices in the Ukrainian industry in March 2021 increased by 1.6%, while in February – by 7.8%, in January – by 5.2%, the State Statistics Service reported.
Industrial production in Ukraine in March 2021 increased by 2.1% compared to March 2020, which was the first month of the introduction of quarantine due to COVID-19, and the growth adjusted for the effect of calendar days was 2.4%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukraine since the beginning of the 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of April 30, 2021 had exported 38.92 million tonnes of grains and legumes, which is 22.9% less than on the same date of the previous MY.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine in January-March 2021 reduce transportation of goods by 3.6% compared to the same period in 2020, to 135.3 million tonnes.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in January-March 2021 decreased by 12.8% compared to the same period in 2020.
Retail turnover in Ukraine in 2020 increased by 12.7% compared to 2019, which is associated with significant growth in the e-commerce segment and high domestic demand.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine should fiscal deficit will need to return to pre-pandemic levels as soon as the economy recovers and the pandemic dissipates, IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine Goesta Ljungman told Interfax-Ukraine.
“Once the pandemic dissipates and the economy recovers, the fiscal deficit will need to return to pre-pandemic levels. This is important to instill confidence in Ukraine’s economy and reduce Ukraine’s borrowing needs,” he said.
Ljungman said that a strong fiscal position also gives Ukraine room to provide fiscal stimulus in the case of a future downturn.
“So the question should not be if Ukraine should reduce the fiscal deficit, but when. And in order to do so, there needs to be already a good plan for how that would happen, including through well-designed tax measures,” Ljungman said.
The Ministry of Economy estimates the drop in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2020 at 4.2%, which is associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, Minister of Economy Ihor Petrashko has said while discussing the economic strategy until 2030.
The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture has improved its estimate of the contraction of the Ukrainian economy in October-December to 1%, while at the end of last year the ministry expected the economy to fall by 3% in the fourth quarter.
MPs of Ukraine should use all opportunities to create the basis for economic growth next year, First Deputy Head of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction and leader of the eponymous party Oleksandr Korniyenko has said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) plans to increase the share of mortgage from the current 0.7% to 2% of GDP by 2024, NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko has said.
The price of Ukraine’s VRIs (value recovery instruments) may rise by up to 140-170% thanks to the recovery of the Ukrainian economy compared to the current market price of 113%, analysts at Deutsche Bank believe.
The fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 slowed down to 0.7% from 3.5% in the third quarter and 11.4% in the second quarter, the State Statistics Service has said.
After a 4.1% decline last year, Ukraine’s economy will grow by 4.2% this year, with inflation rising from 5% to 7.2%, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast of the Concorde Capital investment company, forwarded to Interfax-Ukraine.
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B’ with a stable outlook, the agency said on its website.
Exports of goods from Ukraine in January 2021 amounted to $3.93 billion, which is $270 million, or 5.6% less than in the same period in 2020 and is associated with a decrease in exports of corn, wheat, soybeans and meal, Deputy Economy Minister, Trade Representative Taras Kachka said on Facebook on Tuesday.
In 2020, Ukraine doubled its export of goods to China compared to 2019, to $7.1 billion with imports from China at $8.3 billion, while imports from the Russian Federation decreased 35%, to $2.7 billion with exports being $4.5 billion, Deputy Minister of Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture, Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka has said.
Ukraine in 2020 imported 531,400 vehicles worth more than $ 4.2 billion, including 486,300 passenger cars for almost $ 3.5 billion, Ukrautoprom reported.
Inflation in 2021 will warm the economy, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal has said.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in January 2021 accelerated year-over-year to 6.1% from 5% in December and 3.8% in November, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said on Tuesday.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), after keeping the refinancing rate at 6% per annum for nine months, on March 4 will increase it by 0.5 percentage points (p.p.), to 6.5%, most bankers interviewed by the Interfax-Ukraine agency are inclined to this opinion.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2021, according to preliminary data, fell to $28.821 billion (equivalent), which is $279 million less than at the beginning of January this year, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has said.
The total public debt of Ukraine in January 2021 expanded by 0.53% in U.S. dollars, to $90.74 billion and by 0.25% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.558 trillion, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
Prices in Ukrainian industry in January 2021 compared to January 2020 grew by 17.6%, the State Statistics Service said on Wednesday.
Industrial production in Ukraine in January 2021, which was subject to stricter quarantine, fell by 4% compared to the pre-COVID-19 January 2020, and adjusted to the effect of calendar days the decline was even smaller – 2.7%, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The transport companies of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO area) in January 2021 reduced carriage of goods by 2.2% compared to January 2020, to 42.8 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukrainian transport companiestransported 187.1 million people in January 2021, which is 44.7% less than in the same period in 2020, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January 2021 at comparable prices increased by 3.5% compared to January 2020, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) could grow by 4.3% in 2021, according to the economic forecast of the German Economic Team (GET) and the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.
“In 2021, we expect a recovery of the economy thanks to the growth of private consumption in relation to demand and increased production in industry, transport, as well as in agriculture in relation to supply. This will be facilitated by the recovery of the economy in partner countries and an increase in trade flows,” the experts said.
At the same time, they note the uncertainty about the future situation with the pandemic, cooperation with the IMF and political risks as early elections.
At the same time, the experts said that quarantine restrictions could last until the end of spring, and cooperation with the IMF would be unblocked, and the funds could be received in April-June, as well as in the second half of 2021.
The analysts also expect inflation to slightly exceed the National Bank’s target range in the short term.
