The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Ukraine will be one of Europe’s fastest-growing economies in 2027–2031, according to a Euronews analysis based on data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. The primary source of the data is the IMF’s World Economic Outlook database, which publishes country-specific forecasts, including real GDP growth figures through 2031.
According to Euronews’ calculations, the IMF expects Ukraine’s economy to grow at an average annual rate of 3.8% from 2027 to 2031. The strongest year in the forecast period is expected to be 2028, when growth could reach about 4.2%. Based on this indicator, Ukraine ranks among the top five European economies expected to grow more than twice as fast as the eurozone.
In the list of Europe’s fastest-growing economies, Ukraine is ranked after Malta and Kosovo. Further down the list are Serbia, with an average annual growth rate of 3.52%, and Moldova, with a forecast of about 3.5%. By comparison, according to the IMF, the eurozone economy is projected to grow by an average of 1.2% per year from 2027 to 2031, while the EU economy as a whole is expected to grow by approximately 1.4%.
The key factor driving Ukraine’s growth is cited as the post-war recovery of its economy and infrastructure. Euronews notes that the IMF’s forecast is effectively a recovery scenario: it assumes a gradual de-escalation of the war and the launch of large-scale investments in reconstruction. According to the report, the estimated cost of reconstruction is approaching $600 billion.
At the same time, the outlook for Ukraine remains one of the most uncertain in Europe. In its June 12, 2026, report on Ukraine, the IMF explicitly noted that the country’s prospects remain “extremely uncertain,” as the war continues to inflict severe damage on the population and the economy. The IMF also indicated that Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 could slow to 1.0–1.6% due to the consequences of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and external shocks.
It is precisely this difference between the short-term and medium-term outlooks that is the key element of the forecast. In 2026, the Ukrainian economy remains under pressure from military risks, infrastructure damage, fiscal expenditures, labor shortages, and high dependence on external financing. However, in 2027–2031, provided the security situation improves, recovery could become the main source of growth.
For Ukraine, this forecast implies that the country could become one of Europe’s most dynamic economies—not through typical cyclical growth, but through the effects of post-war reconstruction, investments in infrastructure, construction, energy, logistics, industry, and integration with the EU market.
However, this scenario depends directly on security, international aid, the sustainability of public finances, the pace of reforms, and the ability to attract private capital.
Without a reduction in military risks, growth could turn out to be significantly lower: Euronews notes that under the IMF’s adverse scenario—assuming intense hostilities continue—Ukraine’s growth in 2027 could be only about 1%.
Thus, in the IMF’s projections, Ukraine appears to be one of Europe’s most promising economies for the 2027–2031 period, but this potential remains closely tied to the end of the war, the scale of reconstruction, and the country’s ability to translate international support into long-term economic growth.
In the “Medium- and Long-Term Market” section of the UEB, trading continued for July, August, and November 2026. In total, eight companies placed bids to buy or sell natural gas: Ukrnafta, GPK Naftogaz Trading, MTM Concern, the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator, Ukrzaliznytsia, and others. In total, 11,530 thousand cubic meters of natural gas—July 2026 volumes in the GTS and UGS facilities—were sold in this section.
On the UEB’s short-term natural gas market, participants submitted bids on the intraday market and the “day-ahead” market. A total of 86 trades were concluded, with a combined volume of 1,622 thousand cubic meters.
Last week, the European market once again began to price in a risk premium, though without returning to June’s peaks. The M+1 gas contract briefly reached its highest level since the signing of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, with the Winter 26 and Summer 27 contracts following a similar trajectory. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while having improved somewhat, remains significantly below pre-war levels: in the six months leading up to the war, an average of just under 90 tankers passed through the strait each month. Following last weekend’s strikes, LNG transit was close to zero. Gas storage in Europe remains one of the most closely monitored fundamental factors. As of July 2, the current storage fill rate stood at 49.2%, compared to a five-year average of approximately 62%.
Natural gas imports from Europe ranged from 0.8 to 1.6 million cubic meters per day.
Ukrainian energy officials, together with European partners, have already inspected eight decommissioned combined heat and power plants in Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Austria, Croatia, and the Netherlands with the aim of potentially supplying the surplus equipment to Ukraine, said Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister for Energy.
According to him, equipment from European power facilities is already being used to strengthen the resilience of Ukraine’s power grid. The Ministry of Energy has carried out 199 shipments of equipment, which is now in operation at energy facilities in the Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Dnipropetrovsk, and other regions.
Lithuania has made the largest contribution to this effort. Through the Lithuanian energy company AB Ignitis Gamyba, Ukraine received 152 shipments of equipment. Another 41 shipments were delivered to Ukraine thanks to cooperation with the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant.
Germany is also providing support to Ukraine. Thanks to RWE Power AG, six shipments of equipment were delivered as part of the first phase of cooperation to companies in central and western Ukraine, Kyiv, and Kharkiv.
A separate initiative is currently underway with Latvia. According to Shmyhal, Ukraine is actively working to relocate equipment from the Riga CHPP-2.
“The facilities of interest to Ukrainian companies have already been identified. The amount and source of funds required to dismantle the relevant equipment have also been determined,” the First Deputy Prime Minister said.
For Ukraine, the supply of equipment from European thermal power plants is of critical importance amid Russia’s ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure. This involves not only replacing damaged components but also creating an additional reserve for the heating season, restoring generation and distribution capacity, and enhancing the resilience of regional power systems.
The practice of transferring equipment from decommissioned European power plants allows for a faster response to some of Ukraine’s energy needs, as many components are already physically available and can be adapted for use at Ukrainian facilities. At the same time, such deliveries require technical inspections, dismantling, logistics, financing, and coordination among Ukrainian companies, European operators, and government agencies.
Since the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine has regularly received energy equipment from EU countries, international organizations, and private companies. This equipment is used to repair damaged power plants, substations, thermal facilities, grids, and critical infrastructure.
European airports and airlines have called on the European Commission to urgently intervene in the launch of the new Entry/Exit System (EES). In an open letter, ACI EUROPE, Airlines for Europe, and IATA stated that the system’s implementation has reached a “critical point” and is already causing serious disruptions at airports.
The EES is a new digital system for controlling the Schengen Area’s external borders for citizens of non-EU countries. It replaces passport stamps and records entry, exit, or refusal of entry. When crossing the border, the system collects passport data, a facial photo, fingerprints, and the date and location of the border crossing. The system became fully operational on April 10, 2026, following a phased rollout that began in October 2025.
The problem is that, in practice, biometric registration takes longer than expected. According to ACI EUROPE, A4E, and IATA, since the full launch of the EES, wait times at border control during peak periods have already reached five hours. This leads to flight delays, missed connections, strain on staff, and situations where passengers are stranded at the border while planes depart without being fully occupied.
Industry organizations warn that the situation could worsen in July and August: European airports are expecting approximately 40 million more passengers than in the previous two months. The risk applies not only to the largest hubs but also to smaller airports in popular tourist destinations, where border infrastructure is physically unable to handle the flow of passengers.
The aviation industry is asking the European Commission to allow Schengen Area countries to fully or partially suspend the EES in July and August if passenger traffic exceeds border control capacity. Starting in September, it is proposed to establish a permanent flexibility mechanism to temporarily disable the EES in exceptional situations and revert to standard checks in accordance with the Schengen Code, including passport stamps.
Airports and airlines are not calling for the abolition of border controls. They recognize the importance of the EES for security but believe the system must operate without disrupting transportation logistics or the tourist season. Among the unresolved issues, they cite a shortage of border guards, instability of the IT platform, the unreadiness of self-service kiosks and ABC gates, as well as the poor performance of the pre-registration app.
The EES was intended to make EU borders more digital and secure, but in the summer of 2026, it became an additional source of delays. If the European Commission does not grant airports greater flexibility, the tourist season could face long lines, missed flights, and a reputational blow to European tourism.
A number of countries in Southern and Western Europe have seen a sharp rise in temperatures to nearly 40 degrees, leading to widespread warnings, transportation disruptions, and strain on infrastructure and ecosystems, according to Reuters.
Spain, France, and Italy have been the hardest-hit countries due to the heat wave in Europe, where air temperatures are approaching 40 degrees. The extreme weather conditions have led to the issuance of elevated danger alerts, disruptions to transportation—particularly rail service—and increased strain on infrastructure and emergency services.
“The heat surge on June 21—the day of the summer solstice in the Northern Hemisphere and typically the start of the three hottest months of the year—has raised concerns about the early and prolonged onset of extreme conditions,” the report states.
In Spain, the AEMET weather service issued red and orange warnings, forecasting temperatures of 39–40 degrees across most of the Iberian Peninsula and Mallorca. The heat is expected to last at least until midweek.
In France, due to overheating of the infrastructure, the railway operator SNCF canceled 71 intercity trains. A total of 3,500 employees have been deployed for monitoring and emergency response, with an additional 2,000 staff members on standby.
“The spike in temperatures is caused by a mass of hot air moving northward from the Sahara, intensified by a strong anticyclonic system known as the ‘African anticyclone.’ Meteorologists note that this system creates a so-called ‘heat dome,’ which traps hot air over Western and Central Europe and allows temperatures to rise day after day,” the agency’s report states.
In Germany, where temperatures reached 38 degrees, thunderstorms and power outages were reported during mass events in Berlin.
Meanwhile, in Belgium, wildlife centers are reporting an overload of injured animals, mainly young birds, with about 150 having been brought in over the past few days.
According to Serbian Economist, North Macedonian President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova stated that the European Union needs to revise its methodology for accession negotiations, as the current format, in her words, should not be based on the principle of “shut up and listen.”
Siljanovska-Davkova emphasized that North Macedonia does not accept such an approach to dialogue with the EU. According to her, the negotiation process should be based on equality, respect, and clear criteria, rather than on political demands that go beyond the classic conditions for accession.
The criticism came amid a protracted deadlock in North Macedonia’s European integration. The country received candidate status back in 2005, but its path to the EU was blocked for many years, first by a dispute with Greece over the country’s name, and then by disagreements with Bulgaria regarding history, language, and the rights of the Bulgarian minority.
Following the 2018 Prespa Agreement, the country changed its name from Macedonia to North Macedonia, which paved the way for NATO accession and was intended to accelerate European integration. However, the negotiation process later stalled again due to demands related to the inclusion of Bulgarians in the country’s constitution.
In 2022, the EU agreed on the so-called French proposal, which was intended to lift the Bulgarian veto and unblock the negotiations. However, in Skopje, this formula sparked heated political controversy: some political forces believe that bilateral historical and identity issues should not become part of European criteria.
Siljanovska-Davkova has previously criticized the EU’s approach, stating that enlargement must return to the Copenhagen criteria, the principles of meritocracy, reforms, and the rule of law, rather than depend on additional bilateral requirements.
Formally, the country remains on the European path; however, without constitutional changes and a political compromise with Bulgaria, the opening and advancement of negotiation chapters remain complicated.
Currently, the official candidate countries for EU membership are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Kosovo is viewed by the EU as a potential candidate, but its status is complicated by the fact that five EU member states do not recognize Kosovo’s independence.
Turkey’s history shows that candidate status alone does not guarantee accession.
Turkey applied for membership in the then-European Economic Community as far back as 1987, received candidate status in 1999, and accession negotiations began in 2005.
However, Turkey’s negotiations with the EU have effectively reached an impasse and have not progressed for many years. The main reasons are the EU’s concerns regarding the state of democracy, human rights, the rule of law, and media freedom, as well as political disagreements with certain EU member states. While Turkey formally remains a candidate country, its EU membership is not considered a realistic scenario in the near future.
For North Macedonia and other candidate countries, the Turkish example serves as a reminder that the accession process can take decades. Therefore, Skopje is pushing for a more predictable and politically balanced methodology, under which progress toward the EU would depend primarily on reforms rather than on new bilateral blockages.
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