The escalation of the trade war between the US and Europe is jeopardizing commercial relations worth approximately $9.5 trillion a year, including bilateral trade and investment, according to a report by the American Chamber of Commerce in the EU (AmCham EU). AmCham EU, which represents American companies operating in Europe, notes that the imposed import duties could negatively affect not only the volume of trade in the goods covered by them, but also harm transatlantic investments, which are much higher.
The volume of bilateral trade in goods between the US and Europe, including the UK, reached a record $1.3 trillion in 2024, and the volume of trade in services amounted to more than $750 billion, the Chamber of Commerce reported.
At the same time, according to its estimates, sales of European companies’ subsidiaries in the United States exceeded $3.5 trillion, and branches of American companies in Europe – $4 trillion.
“The damage to trade flows in goods is quite large,” said Malte Lohan, head of AmCham EU. – “The main risk is that all this will begin to affect other ties as well.
US President Donald Trump, speaking about US-European trade relations, mainly focuses on trade in goods, The Wall Street Journal reports. He has repeatedly expressed concern about the high US trade deficit with the EU, which amounted to $235.6 billion last year.
Trump has already imposed 25% duties on steel and aluminum supplies to the United States, particularly from Europe. He is also threatening to impose similar duties on imports of European cars, pharmaceuticals, and a number of other goods in response to tax and regulatory measures in Europe.
Last week, Trump also promised to impose 200% tariffs on European alcoholic beverages in response to the European Union’s decision to increase duties on imports of American whiskey to 50%. Alcohol producers in both the United States and Europe have already stated that the trade war will cause deep damage to the industry. The introduction of 200% duties will effectively close the US market to European wine producers.
The consequences of mutual threats and retaliatory measures could be even more severe, warns Dan Hamilton, a researcher at Johns Hopkins University and one of the authors of the AmCham EU report. The EU could retaliate against Washington by imposing taxes on American services, in which the United States has a trade surplus.
According to a report by the Chamber of Commerce, Europe receives more direct U.S. investment than other regions of the world combined. Meanwhile, European companies account for almost two-thirds of all direct investment in the United States.
The imposition of tariffs could make it more difficult for European companies to send components manufactured in the region to their own facilities in the United States, while retaliatory tariffs from the EU or another Washington trading partner could make it more difficult to export the final product from the United States, Hamilton said. Political uncertainty may cause companies to refrain from transatlantic investments.
“The ripple effect of the conflict in the trade sphere will not be limited to trade,” the expert emphasizes.
In 2024, Metinvest Mining and Metallurgical Group significantly increased its total exports and sales of iron ore to more than 12 million tons and significantly reduced production costs, Metinvest CEO Yuriy Ryzhenkov said in an interview with Forbes Ukraine.
“We have fully returned to the operational efficiency improvement program. For example, we have reconfigured our business process to use our own raw materials. And by most indicators, I mean technical, technological, and production ones, we have returned to the best results of 2020-2021,” the CEO stated.
According to him, the main disadvantage is the electricity outage and problems with its import. Another problem is the increase in tariffs for the services of natural monopolists, primarily the increase in electricity transportation tariffs and logistics. In addition, the aggressor’s offensive towards Pokrovsk. As a result, the group was forced to suspend the mine’s operations due to the inability to ensure electricity supply and safety factors for employees.
“We were preparing for this and diversified our supply chain for the same coal – we contracted as much as we could from other companies and shipped it for Ukraine’s needs from our plant in the US. We will definitely not stop steel production because of the temporary shutdown of the Pokrovsk mine. But it will have a serious impact on the company’s economy. Instead of supplying coal via the nearest logistics route, from Pokrovsk to Zaporizhzhia and Kamianske, we will now have to buy coal all over the world, and the logistics component will have a significant impact on our production costs. In general, up to 10% of the cost of coal,” said the CEO.
Answering a question about Donald Trump’s economic policy and expectations for the consequences for the global economy, Ryzhenkov explained that “it is not really known which initiatives of Donald Trump are serious and which are working to raise rates or invite to a dialogue.”
“We see tumultuous actions that make waves in the entire global economy, currencies, and so on. How will it all end? When a major power like the United States turns to protectionism, it is a serious problem for the global economy and, by the way, for the United States itself. It’s just that they will feel the consequences later – in three to four years,” the top manager predicts.
In turn, he noted that Metinvest’s deliveries to the US are insignificant – not even within the margin of error: “The largest share is pig iron, which is not subject to duty, and I think this will not change – it is the raw material for the American economy.”
Speaking about staffing issues, the CEO said that more than 20% of the group’s employees, or 30% of those liable for military service, are currently mobilized. Ryzhenkov believes that we need a normal, well-thought-out reservation system that will allow us to work. Reservations are not a privilege for business, as some say, but an integral part of preserving the economic basis of the state’s defense capability. If the economy does not work, Ukraine will lose the war, despite the support of the West.
As for the export strategy, it has not changed much compared to the period before the full-scale war.
“There are our key markets – Ukraine, the EU countries, where we supplied more than 50% of our products before the full-scale invasion. And then there are all the others, the so-called balance markets, which are characterized by a more opportunistic approach to supply. When it’s profitable for us, we go there, and when it’s not profitable, we don’t go there,” the CEO stated.
The Group’s key markets for iron ore are the EU countries. And the company has expanded them, entering Scandinavia and the Nordic countries. What we cannot sell in the EU due to limited consumption volumes is sold to Southeast Asia: China, South Korea, and so on, said the company’s CEO.
“The main thing we have focused on is the production of iron ore with a higher iron content, which is now in demand. We have already mastered its production at our joint venture, Pivdennyi GOK. Before the full-scale invasion, we did it at our Central GOK,” explained the CEO.
Regarding the forecast – what factors will have the greatest impact on exports in 2025 and what are the potential critical risks – Ryzhenkov divides them into several blocks. The first is to maintain the competitiveness of Ukrainian producers in foreign markets. This requires that state-owned monopolies do not create additional tariff pressure on operating businesses.
The second is maintaining access to foreign markets (it is important to preserve the liberalization of steel trade with the EU, the US, and the UK) and strengthening sanctions against the Russian metals and mining industry, which continues to sell slabs and pig iron to the EU because of the position of certain countries.
The third is a consistent environmental and industrial policy of the state on eco-modernization and decarbonization. Ukraine needs a delay in the CBA because of the war. And confirming the criticality of booking and engaging veterans in the workforce will remain a relevant factor because of the risk of losing qualified personnel.
“As for new challenges, it is access to financing for modernization and green transition projects in the mining and metals sector, as well as ensuring stable demand for Ukrainian steel in the domestic market. But these topics are post-war, and we can talk about them separately when peace comes,” the expert believes.
Speaking about the energy independence of Metinvest’s enterprises, the CEO said that the group has its own generation, about 45-50 MW, which provides the most critical processes – about 10% of the company’s energy consumption. Another 40 MW of gas-fired generation is under construction, which will be commissioned in 2025, and solar panels are also being installed.
Regarding investments, the CEO emphasized that due to security risks, the company cannot invest in Ukraine as before. There were serious investment plans in Mariupol, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, and Kamianske. Nevertheless, in 2024, the total investment volume reached about $670 million at the group’s sites in Ukraine. This includes both OPEX and CAPEX. As soon as the company is able to attract financing, there will be plans for large projects.
This year, we also have many plans, for example, a tailings pulp thickening project at Northern GOK and the repair of blast furnace No. 9 at Kametstal are being implemented at our own expense. The volume of investments in these projects in Ukraine alone is about $50 million.
Investment plans abroad include the largest project for the coming years – the construction of a green steel plant in Italy. The estimated cost of the joint project is EUR 2.5 billion.
Among other potential acquisitions, the company is interested in Eastern and Southern Europe – regions where it is possible to create synergies with the group’s existing business processes and Ukrainian assets. The company may take part in a tender for the sale of the Polish plant Huta Chestochowa, which once belonged to the Industrial Union of Donbass.
“In Ukraine, we have a $8 billion strategy for the green modernization of Ukrainian enterprises for 7-10 years. We are ready to launch this strategy as soon as the war is over and Ukraine receives security guarantees,” Ryzhenkov added.
“Metinvest is a vertically integrated group of steel and mining companies. The group’s enterprises are mainly located in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro regions. The main shareholders of the holding are SCM Group (71.24%) and Smart Holding (23.76%), which jointly manage it.
Metinvest Holding LLC is the management company of Metinvest Group.
Europe should be prepared for a possible increase in tariffs on imports of goods to the United States, as promised by President Donald Trump, said European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. The fact that Trump has not yet signed a decree to impose additional duties on all imports was “a very sensible approach, as total tariffs will not necessarily lead to the expected results,” Lagarde said in an interview with CNBC in Davos.
In her opinion, the new US tariffs will be more “selective and focused”.
“We in Europe need to prepare and wait in advance to see what will happen in order to respond to it,” Lagarde added.
At the same time, the ECB President noted that the regulator is “not too concerned” about external risks to inflation.
In response to a journalist’s question about the possible consequences of a new wave of inflation in the United States, Lagarde said that “accelerating inflation in the United States will be a problem for the United States, and that is where the main effects will be felt first.”
The ECB has cut rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024, with the key deposit rate now at 3%. Economists expect four rate cuts of 25 bps each in 2025. Earlier, the Experts Club think tank, Brian Mefford and Maxim Urakin, released a video analysis on what changes are expected in US domestic and foreign policy under Trump, the video is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtu.be/W2elNY1xczM?si=MM-QjSqGce4Tlq6T
Electricity exports to Europe in November decreased by 31% compared to October and were almost four times lower than imports, according to DiXi Group, a Ukrainian think tank in the areas of politics, energy and security, citing Energy Map.
“Last month, electricity exports fell by 31% to 41.9 thousand MWh,” DiXi Group said in a Facebook post.
According to it, 30% or 12.7 thousand MWh went to Slovakia, another 23% (9.4 thousand MWh) to Hungary. 19% (8.1 thousand MWh and 7.8 thousand MWh) went to Moldova and Romania. 9% (3.9 thousand MWh) went to Poland.
According to DiXi’s information, imports amounted to 162.4 thousand MWh, which is 11% less than in October and almost four times more than exports.
DiXi explained that exports fell in the second half of last month, while imports increased due to Russia’s massive attacks on energy infrastructure on November 17 and 28, which led to a shortage in the power system.
As reported, according to D.Trading, in November-2024, Ukraine remained a net importer of electricity, and its imports amounted to 165 million kWh, which is 9% lower than in October.
As DiXi reported earlier, in October-2024, Ukraine exported 60.7 thousand MWh instead of 0.7 thousand MWh in September.
Despite the overall shortage of electricity caused by 11 massive Russian attacks on the power system this year, at certain hours, in particular, during the active operation of renewable energy generation, as well as at night, Ukraine has a surplus, which allows for exports. An alternative to exports is, in particular, a forced limitation of electricity production from renewable energy sources, which should be compensated by NPC Ukrenergo. Due to the surplus, other types of generation should also reduce their capacity.
Metinvest Mining and Metallurgical Group is ready to invest in Europe and expand its presence in the market, including steel production, and is currently in the process of mergers and acquisitions of some European steel assets, said Alexander Vodovez, Chief Executive Officer of the Group, at the European Business Summit in Brussels.
“We are negotiating with several European companies to come to Ukraine. We are currently in the process of merging and acquiring some European steel assets, as we have a huge resource base and want to use it properly,” said the top manager.
According to the head of Metinvest’s CEO’s office, before the war, the group employed about 120,000 people and accounted for about 5% of Ukraine’s GDP. But with the start of the full-scale invasion, the company lost almost 50% of its enterprises, particularly in Mariupol and Avdiivka. Today, Metinvest employs about 60,000 people in Ukraine, Italy, the United States, Bulgaria and the United Kingdom. About 9,000 of the company’s employees serve in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and about 1,000 employees have been killed. The group’s enterprises operate under the threat of shelling, with some facilities located just 10 km from the frontline.
Vodoviz emphasized the importance of entering the EU market, especially as Ukraine fights Russian aggression.
“Ukraine has the largest resource base on the European continent. And we can offer Europe access to these resources. In return, we want access to European technologies and the financial system to implement projects both in Ukraine and in the EU. But we do not need free money – we are ready to compete. We are ready to be part of the economic society of Europe and want this accession process to be completed as soon as possible,” stated the head of Metinvest’s CEO’s office.
At the same time, he clarified that the main obstacle for Ukraine on its way to European integration is the war: “We cannot simply turn a blind eye to the war, but our government has a homework assignment – to go through all the procedures for joining the European Union: monitoring, enforcement of laws, etc.” The top manager emphasized that Ukraine’s European integration will help ensure the strategic autonomy of the European steel industry from Russia.
Plastic production in Europe in 2023 decreased by 8.3%, according to the industry organization Plastics Europe. According to its managing director, Virginia Janssens, the decline was stronger than expected.
At the same time, global plastic production grew by 3.4%, in particular due to the scale-up of production in China and the United States. According to S&P Global, China accounted for 60% of the growth in petrochemical capacity last year.
The share of European suppliers in the global market will decline to 12% in 2023 from 28% in 2006. In addition, due to declining demand, the volume of mechanical plastic recycling in Europe last year fell for the first time since 2018, Plastics Europe noted. This is the most common recycling method in the region.
In October, the industry organization Plastics Recyclers Europe pointed out the alarming nature of the downward trend in the European plastic recycling market, which is why many companies are leaving it. Among other things, the market is under pressure from an oversupply of virgin plastic outside Europe.
Businesses are also dissatisfied with European legislation aimed at achieving ambitious climate goals. According to the companies, it is “stifling growth,” the FT writes. American ExxonMobil (SPB: XOM) and Saudi Arabia’s SABIC this year announced their intention to close petrochemical plants in Europe. LyondellBasell, Versalis, and Trinseo are also going to close their sites or revise their plans for them.
