UBS analysts expect copper prices to rise next year due to reduced supply amid ongoing mine disruptions.
In addition, the rise will be supported by high long-term demand associated with the transition to clean energy and increased investment in this area, the bank said in a statement.
UBS raised its copper price forecast for the end of the first quarter of 2026 by $750 to $11,500 per ton. Expectations for June and September were raised by $1,000 to $12,000 and $12,500 per ton, respectively. Experts also set a target level for December next year at $13,000 per ton.
Analysts now believe that the copper deficit in the global market this year will be about 230,000 tons, compared to the previously expected 53,000 tons, and in 2026 – 407,000 tons, compared to 87,000 tons. In their opinion, declining inventories and ongoing supply risks will keep the market tight.
Disruptions at mines this year, including production problems at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slower recovery of production in Chile, and recurring protests in Peru, highlight structural supply constraints that are likely to persist until 2026, the bank said in a statement.
Freeport-McMoRan said it plans to resume production at the Grasberg copper and gold mine by July after operations were suspended two months ago due to a fatal accident.
UBS lowered its forecast for refined copper production growth to 1.2% in 2025 and 2.2% next year, citing deteriorating ore quality and operational problems. Analysts expect global demand for the metal to increase by 2.8% both this year and next due to the development of renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, investments in power grids, and data centers.
The bank’s experts believe that any price decline will be short-lived and recommend maintaining long positions in copper.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video dedicated to global copper production and leading producing countries – https://youtube.com/shorts/_h8iU50z8C0?si=a-XkgGEfeUxseQNa
In October 2025, Ukrainian metallurgical companies increased steel production by 7.3% compared to October 2024, from 604,000 tons to 648,000 tons, but reduced it by 5.9% compared to September 2025 (689 thousand tons), according to data from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel).
According to the association’s report, Ukraine ranked 21st among 70 steel-producing countries in October.
In January-October 2025, Ukrainian steel companies produced 6.172 million tons of steel, which is 4.9% less than in the same period of 2024 (6.487 million tons). Ukraine ranks 22nd in the world in terms of this indicator.
In 2024, Ukraine produced 7.575 million tons of steel, increasing production by 21.6% compared to 2023 (6.228 million tons) and ranked 20th among 71 countries. In 2023, steel production in the country decreased by 0.6% compared to 2022, to 6.228 million tons, and Ukraine ranked 22nd in the global ranking.
At the end of 2022, Ukraine produced 6.263 million tons of steel, which is 70.7% less than in 2021, and ranked 23rd among 64 countries covered by Worldsteel.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video analysis of the world’s leading steel producers from 2001 to 2024 – https://youtube.com/shorts/VgUU9MEMosE?si=c5yD04gmNtJoFblB
Mexico’s economy contracted by 0.3% in the third quarter relative to the previous three months, according to final data from the country’s statistics office. The estimate matched preliminary data. Analysts on average also did not expect a revision, Trading Economics reported.
The downturn in the economy is being recorded for the first time since the fourth quarter of last year. Mexico’s GDP grew 0.6% in the second quarter.
Mexico’s economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.1% in the third quarter. A contraction of 0.2% was previously reported.
The Experts Club analytical center has previously made a video analysis and forecast on the macroeconomy of Ukraine and major countries of the world.
https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=1StxlkcIzQlpF0_q
ECONOMY, economy macroeconomy, EXPERTS CLUB, MACROECONOMY, MAXIM URAKIN
The Experts Club analytical center analyzed Albania’s economy for the first 10 months of 2025 and presented its analysis and forecast. Based on the results of the first ten months of 2025, Albania continues to have one of the highest growth rates in Europe, with low inflation, stable currency reserves, and continued growth in tourism, but it faces a slowdown in industrial output and an expanding trade deficit.
According to IMF mission estimates and national statistics, Albania’s real GDP grew by approximately 3.4–3.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, which is comparable to 2024 figures and above the European average. The main drivers of growth remain the service sector, construction, and tourism: foreign tourists alone spent around €2.1 billion in the country in the first six months, which is 7–8% more than a year earlier.
International institutions expect the economy to grow by around 3.4-3.7% by the end of the year: after its autumn mission, the IMF raised its forecast to 3.5% for 2025, while the World Bank and the EBRD also expect growth of over 3%.
Inflation in the country remains low and close to the target level. According to the IMF and national statistics, annual consumer price inflation in 2025 is around 2–2.3%.
The labor market situation is improving moderately. The unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2025 fell to 8.5%, which is significantly below the historical average (around 14%).
Industry remains the most vulnerable sector. According to estimates by research centers and statistics, industrial production in Albania in the first quarter of 2025 declined by approximately 2.1% compared to the same period in 2024, while in the second quarter the decline slowed to around 0.5%. Manufacturing output in June 2025 was 0.9% lower than a year ago. This reflects the problems of traditional export industries, primarily textiles and clothing, which are under pressure due to the strengthening of the national currency and demographic outflow.
The external sector remains a weak spot in the macroeconomy. According to Albanian think tanks and INSTAT, the trade deficit in goods widened to about 25.3% of GDP in the first half of 2025, despite high tourism revenues. Remittances from migrants grew by about 5% to €1.2 billion, remaining an important source of external revenue, while foreign direct investment stabilized at around €1.1 billion over the same period.
At the same time, external stability appears comfortable. According to Trading Economics, Albania’s international reserves reached $7.3 billion in September 2025. In its final Article IV statement, the IMF explicitly notes “strong reserves, declining public debt, and one of the highest growth rates in Europe” as a basis for further reforms and deeper integration with the EU.
China is deploying a large fleet of civilian cargo ships and ferries in exercises off its coast, rehearsing scenarios for a possible landing in Taiwan, according to a Reuters investigation based on satellite images and ship tracking data.
According to Reuters, in the summer of 2025, at least 12 civilian vessels — six car ferries and six deck cargo ships — took part in landing maneuvers on a beach near the town of Jieshen in Guangdong province. Satellite images captured the unloading of hundreds of military vehicles directly on the coast via ramps, without the use of port infrastructure.
Experts interviewed by the agency note that the civilian fleet could be a key element in a possible operation against Taiwan: according to current estimates, the PLA Navy and Marine Corps currently have enough of their own landing ships and boats to transport approximately 20,000 troops with equipment. The investigation indicates that the use of civilian vessels is part of a broader “shadow fleet” strategy, which allows the PRC to dramatically increase its landing and transport capabilities while simultaneously complicating the situation for the US Navy.
The investigation indicates that the use of civilian vessels is part of a broader “shadow fleet” strategy that allows the PRC to dramatically increase its landing and transport capabilities while making it more difficult for intelligence to assess the scale of preparations. According to Reuters, more than 100 civilian vessels have been tracked that are involved in military exercises or belong to companies that regularly participate in such maneuvers.
The article cites assessments by former Taiwanese Armed Forces Commander Li Shimin and other military experts who call the rehearsal of landings involving the civilian fleet a “significant step” toward the formation of real invasion plans. At the same time, Taiwanese officials point to the vulnerability of such ships to anti-ship and portable missiles and view the demonstrative exercises as part of a “cognitive war” aimed at putting psychological pressure on Taipei and its partners.
Reuters emphasizes that, despite the build-up of capabilities, it remains unclear whether the PLA is ready for a real amphibious operation across the Taiwan Strait: the scale of the invasion is difficult to conceal, and weather conditions, the island’s coastal terrain, and the potential response of the US and its allies make such a scenario extremely risky.
Reference from Experts Club: Comparison of the military capabilities of China and Taiwan (estimates for 2025)
According to open estimates (GlobalFirepower, Taiwan Ministry of Defense, budget data): Number of active military personnel
China: approximately 2.0–2.1 million (active PLA personnel).
Taiwan: nearly 230,000.
Ratio: approximately 8–9 to 1 in favor of China.
Reserves and mobilization resources
China: approximately 510,000 reservists + large paramilitary formations.
Taiwan: approximately 2.3 million reservists with a significantly smaller population, relying on mass reserves.
Air Force (general aviation)
China: about 3,300 aircraft, including about 1,200 fighters.
Taiwan: about 760 aircraft, about 280–300 fighters.
Fighter ratio: about 4–5 to 1 in favor of China.
Navy (combat ships)
China: about 750 ships and boats, including 3 aircraft carriers, dozens of destroyers and frigates, and over 60 submarines.
Taiwan: about 100 ships and boats, no aircraft carriers, with a limited number of destroyers, frigates, and submarines.
Ratio of fleet units: approximately 7–8 to 1 in favor of China, with an even more significant gap in total tonnage.
Defense budgets (2025)
China: approximately $245–270 billion per year according to official data.
Taiwan: approximately $20–21 billion (about 2.45% of GDP).
Ratio: China spends more than 10 times more on defense than Taiwan.
These figures are estimates based on open sources, but they generally reflect China’s significant quantitative advantage, while Taiwan focuses on technological saturation, defense doctrines, and alliances with the US and other partners.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/kytaj-zadiyuye-czyvilni-sudna-v-navchannyah-po-tajvanyu-zmi/
A talent visa is a special residence and work permit designed to attract foreign professionals with exceptional skills or achievements. It is used by countries to strengthen their scientific, cultural, technological, sporting, or business sectors. In the context of growing competition for talent and capital, such programs are becoming part of economic and innovation promotion strategies, helping countries become “talent magnets.”
Professionals in science, technology, business, education, or sports, entrepreneurs and start-ups, investors with a plan to create jobs, as well as creative professionals — artists, musicians, actors, designers, and fashion designers — can apply for a talent visa. Often, graduates of prestigious universities, students with outstanding academic achievements, and public figures fall into the “talent” category. Higher education is not always required: it is more important to have evidence of achievements — publications, participation in conferences, mentions in the media, and letters of recommendation.
In different countries, the visa program for talents has its own name and different requirements. In the US, it is called O-1A or O-1B and is intended for people recognized in the arts, sciences, sports, business, or cinema. The visa is issued for three years with the possibility of extension, and approval is given by the US Citizenship and Immigration Services.
France has a Passeport Talent program that covers investors, professionals, artists, scientists, and athletes. Recently, the income requirements have been reduced to €39,500 per year. Those who have obtained a visa can live and work in France with their families for up to four years, with the possibility of extension.
The UK offers a Global Talent Visa, which allows you to live for up to five years, bring family members, and does not require a high level of English. Confirmation of merit by a relevant British organization is required. Germany has a pan-European program called the Blue Card, which is designed for highly skilled professionals from countries outside the European Union with a university degree or at least three years of work experience and an invitation from a German employer.
Canada uses the Global Talent Stream program, which is aimed at specialists in critical technology sectors. Candidates must have a job offer from a Canadian company and confirm their qualifications. In Australia, a similar program is called the National Innovation Visa. It is aimed at attracting foreigners with outstanding abilities, but the visa application process is long and expensive.
In New Zealand, the talent visa is intended for representatives of the arts, culture, and sports. It is valid for up to 30 months, after which you can apply for a residence permit. In Thailand, the talent visa is part of the Smart Visa program, designed for professionals in science and technology. A minimum one-year contract with an income of at least 100,000 baht per month is required.
The United Arab Emirates has a Golden Visa program that provides professionals, artists, medical professionals, and investors with a five- or ten-year residence permit. Hong Kong has a Top Talent Pass Scheme program designed for wealthy professionals or graduates of prestigious universities. In China, high-level specialists can obtain an R visa for up to ten years. Malaysia has a Residence Pass Talent program for skilled workers with at least five years of experience.
In September 2025, South Korea launched a new K-Star program for leading global experts in science and technology. It provides a fast track to permanent residence and will be fully operational in 2026.
Serbia also has a simplified talent visa option. To obtain it, you only need to confirm your diploma, pay a fee of about €95, and wait up to 90 days. The visa is issued for one year with the possibility of extension and subsequent transition to permanent residence. Language skills are not required.
Experts note that such programs have become a strategic tool for attracting knowledge and capital. Each of them is part of the formula “talent – innovation – economic growth.” Despite similar goals, the requirements vary significantly: in some cases, the process is strict and multi-stage, while in others, it is a fairly simple procedure for confirming competencies. The successful implementation of such programs strengthens the country’s reputation as a center of attraction for talent and investment.
However, it is important to remember the risks. Without transparent selection and integration mechanisms, such visas can become a burden on social and migration systems rather than a driver of development. For Ukraine, such initiatives open up opportunities for professional growth and entry into global markets, and for host countries, they are a way to strengthen their innovative potential.
Overall, Experts Club experts believe that the future of the global economy largely depends on how effectively countries can compete for human capital. Talent visa programs are becoming one of the main tools in this new “battle for minds.”
