Europe should be prepared for a possible increase in tariffs on imports of goods to the United States, as promised by President Donald Trump, said European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. The fact that Trump has not yet signed a decree to impose additional duties on all imports was “a very sensible approach, as total tariffs will not necessarily lead to the expected results,” Lagarde said in an interview with CNBC in Davos.
In her opinion, the new US tariffs will be more “selective and focused”.
“We in Europe need to prepare and wait in advance to see what will happen in order to respond to it,” Lagarde added.
At the same time, the ECB President noted that the regulator is “not too concerned” about external risks to inflation.
In response to a journalist’s question about the possible consequences of a new wave of inflation in the United States, Lagarde said that “accelerating inflation in the United States will be a problem for the United States, and that is where the main effects will be felt first.”
The ECB has cut rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024, with the key deposit rate now at 3%. Economists expect four rate cuts of 25 bps each in 2025. Earlier, the Experts Club think tank, Brian Mefford and Maxim Urakin, released a video analysis on what changes are expected in US domestic and foreign policy under Trump, the video is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtu.be/W2elNY1xczM?si=MM-QjSqGce4Tlq6T
US President Donald Trump has lifted the moratorium on the issuance of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export licenses imposed by his predecessor Joe Biden. The US Department of Energy reported that it is returning to the normal regime of reviewing export applications in accordance with Trump’s order.
“The Department has been instructed to resume reviewing applications for the export of US LNG to countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the United States. The proper review of export applications is required by law and must be carried out accordingly,” the Energy Ministry said in a statement.
In December, the agency published the results of a study on LNG exports and set February 18 as the deadline for public comments on it. Now the Ministry of Energy has decided to extend the comment period until March 20, 2025.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank, Brian Mefford and Maxim Urakin, released a video analysis on what changes are expected to occur in US domestic and foreign policy under Trump, the video is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtu.be/W2elNY1xczM?si=MM-QjSqGce4Tlq6T
EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORT, GAS, LICENSE, MORATORIUM, TRUMP, URAKIN, Меффорд
On the first day of his presidency, Trump intends to sign executive orders, including reinstating the death penalty at the federal level in the United States, which was abolished by Biden, and declaring a state of emergency on the southern border, representatives of the new administration told Reuters.
“Even before Trump was set to take office, his aides detailed a series of executive orders he would sign immediately, including 10 on border security and immigration, his top priority,” Reuters reported on Monday.
It is reported that on the first day, Trump will also declare a state of emergency on the southern border, send troops to the region and reinstate the policy that forces asylum seekers to wait in Mexico for a hearing in a US court. Will require that official U.S. documents, including passports, indicate the gender assigned to citizens at birth. Pardon 1,500 people involved in the Capitol storming case.
“On his first day, which also happens to be Martin Luther King Jr. Day, he will also sign an executive order ending diversity, equality and inclusion initiatives in the federal government, officials said,” the agency noted.
In the midst of the ceremony, Trump is expected to begin “signing his first executive orders, many of which are likely to face legal challenges.”
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank, Brian Mefford and Maxim Urakin, released a video analysis of what changes await US domestic and foreign policy under Trump, the video is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtu.be/W2elNY1xczM?si=MM-QjSqGce4Tlq6T
At the end of 2024, the Serbian labor market showed stability with a gradual increase in employment. The unemployment rate decreased to 9.2%, down from 10.1% in 2023. Economic recovery from the pandemic and the inflow of investments in key sectors are contributing to job creation, but the country still faces a shortage of skilled labor.
The key characteristics of the labor market in Serbia are:
1) The employed population is about 2.9 million.
2) The main employment sectors are:
3)Average salary level:
4) The most demanded professions are:
IT specialists;
Engineers;
Medical personnel;
Workers in the construction and agricultural sectors.
The role of migrants in the Serbian labor market
Migrants play an important role in the Serbian economy, especially in sectors where there is a labor shortage. In 2024, the number of registered foreign workers exceeded 120,000, including citizens of Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Russia and China.
Main migrant groups and their roles:
Regularities:
Challenges of the labor market with regard to migration
Experts predict that Serbia will maintain a high share of migrant workers in the labor market, especially in construction, agriculture, and IT. Key factors:
Serbia’s labor market in 2024 is developing against the backdrop of an influx of foreign workers, including a significant share of Ukrainians. This allows the country to address the problem of staff shortages in key sectors. However, Serbia’s further growth will require not only attracting migrants, but also improving working conditions and incentivizing local workers.
The ruling coalition in Romania has decided on the date of the new presidential elections, which will be held in Romania on May 4 and May 18, Reuters reports, citing sources in the Liberal Party of Romania.
According to the coalition parties, they have agreed to support a single presidential candidate to prevent the far-right from winning, and today their candidate is Crin Antonescu, the former leader of the Liberals, but experts suggest that another candidate from the ruling coalition may be nominated.
According to Politico, despite the cancellation of the results of the previous elections, pro-Russian candidate Kelin Georgescu remains popular in Romania, as evidenced by a poll conducted by Digi 24 at the request of Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, who also plans to run for president of Romania as an independent candidate in the re-election. The poll showed that at least 40 percent of Romanians plan to vote for Dănăsca, Dan told Digi24, without specifying how many people were interviewed.
On Wednesday, Elena Lascone, the leader of the liberal progressive party “Union for the Salvation of Romania”, which came in second in the previous elections with 19.18% of the vote, promised to run again.
As reported, in December 2024, the Romanian Supreme Court overturned the results of the first round of the November 24 presidential election due to allegations of foreign interference after the victory of pro-Russian candidate Kelin Georgescu.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video about the most important elections in the world, the video is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=zWf7UqPASklCy5nr
The analysis of key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for January-September 2024 is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In January-September 2024, Ukraine’s economy showed a slight growth. According to the Ministry of Economy, real GDP growth in July was 2.7% in annualized terms, which is better than June’s 1.1%, but worse than May’s 3.7%. In the third quarter of 2024, growth may exceed the previously forecasted 3.1%.
“The Ukrainian economy continues to move forward despite the difficult challenges caused by the war and external economic factors. Our key task remains to maintain stable growth and attract investment in strategic sectors of the economy,” – said Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
However, rising inflation remains a challenge for the economy. In September, annual inflation reached 8.6%, accelerating from 7.5% in August. Consumer prices increased by 1.5% month-on-month, after 0.6% in August and zero in July. The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its inflation forecast for 2024, increasing it from 8.5% to 9.7%.
“Inflation remains one of the key challenges. High price growth rates significantly reduce the purchasing power of the population, which creates additional risks for the economy,” Urakin emphasized.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods increased by 5.9% over the first nine months of the year and reached $20.382 billion, indicating high imports and insufficient export growth.
“The increase in the negative trade balance signals the need to revise export support strategies. Only by developing the competitiveness of national production can we achieve balanced economic growth,” Urakin said.
Ukraine’s state budget revenues in September dropped to UAH 122.9 billion after a sharp increase in August to UAH 387.4 billion, driven by grants from the US and EU. This underscores the importance of external assistance to support the budget in times of war.
Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 8.1% in September, reaching $38.9 billion. The main reason for this was a decline in international revenues amid debt repayments.
Global economic situation
The International Monetary Fund maintained its forecast for global economic growth at 3.2% in 2024. At the same time, the US economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter amid a 3.7% increase in consumer spending. The European Union’s economy shows more modest results: the growth forecast for 2024 has been lowered to 0.9%, and in the Eurozone – to 0.8%.
“The global economy is facing a number of challenges, including a slowdown in China and high interest rates. However, the key problem remains the persistent price pressure and geopolitical instability,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
The Chinese economy grew by 4.6% in the third quarter, but the growth forecast for 2024 was lowered to 4.8%. India continues to show stable growth at 7%, and Brazil has improved its performance to 3%.
“The global economy is now balancing between recovery and new risks. Forecasts for the coming years depend on the resolution of geopolitical conflicts and the ability of global leaders to stabilize the economy,” added Maksim Urakin.
The economic indicators of Ukraine and the world for the first nine months of 2024 show a contradictory picture. GDP growth and positive signals from global markets are combined with inflationary risks and an imbalance in foreign trade. The global economy is also under pressure from numerous uncertainties.
“It is important for Ukraine to focus on structural reforms that stimulate export growth and attract foreign investment. Only through the sustainable development of key industries can long-term economic stability be ensured,” – summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current economic trends in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grE5wjPaItI
