Germany’s central bank does not expect the country’s GDP to grow in April-June 2025 after an unexpected rise in the first quarter. The economy has “probably stagnated” and the underlying trend is still characterized as “generally weak,” according to the Bundesbank’s monthly report.
The central bank warned that the introduction of 30% import duties recently announced by US President Donald Trump would create a “significant risk of economic decline.”
“In the short term, Germany’s export industry will face additional obstacles in the form of US tariff policy,” the Bundesbank said in a report.
Germany’s economy grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous three months. The GDP growth rate was the highest since the third quarter of 2022. However, this increase is largely due to attempts by businesses and exporters to get ahead of US duties.
Preliminary data on the dynamics of Germany’s GDP in the second quarter will be published on July 30.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center made a video analysis of the prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies, see more in the video – https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=F4IOLdLuVbYmEh5P
Over the past few decades, poultry farming has become the most dynamic and widespread type of animal husbandry in the world. Chickens, the main link in this industry, have gone far beyond traditional subsistence farming and have become the main source of animal protein for billions of people. Experts Club analysts have studied global changes in chicken breeding between 1990 and 2023, recording unprecedented growth and structural transformations in the industry.
“Poultry farming has become a symbol of the new consumer economy: fast production, low cost, adaptability to global demand. That is why chicken is replacing other types of meat around the world,” said Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
In the early 1990s, the total number of chickens in the world was estimated at 10 billion (in thousands of heads). Even then, this figure exceeded the number of any other type of farm animal. However, the real leap forward took place in 2000–2020. By 2023, the total number of chickens in the world exceeded 29 billion, i.e., it almost tripled in three decades. This means that there are approximately 3.6 chickens per person on the planet, considering the total world population of over 8 billion.
This explosive growth can be explained by several key factors. First and foremost is economic efficiency. Chicken is the cheapest meat to produce, requiring significantly less feed, water, and time to raise than pork or beef. In the context of global urbanization, rising incomes, and changing eating habits, chicken has become a “universal” product: it is consumed equally in the US, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Egypt.
In addition to economics, religious and cultural factors are equally important. Unlike pork and beef, which are restricted in consumption due to religious prohibitions in Islam, Judaism, and Hinduism, chicken is acceptable in almost all traditions.
This makes it a globally universal source of protein. “Chicken is a compromise protein. It is acceptable everywhere, inexpensive, quick to process, and that is why it has become the standard of the 21st century,” Urakin emphasized. Technical innovations play an equally important role.
From the 1990s to the 2020s, the poultry industry has undergone a technological revolution: automated incubators, genetically improved broilers, controlled growing conditions, biosecurity, and strict quality monitoring have become the norm in large agricultural countries. This has significantly increased the industry’s productivity. On average, the cycle of raising a broiler to market size has been reduced from 70 to 42 days.
Geographically, the largest chicken producers are China, the US, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Russia. At the same time, African countries are experiencing rapid growth in domestic production, focused on both food security and reducing dependence on imports.
However, the growth dynamics of the livestock population also carries risks. The increasing density of chicken farming creates an increased epidemiological burden, which is particularly evident in the form of outbreaks of avian influenza. In addition, critics point to animal welfare issues, excessive use of antibiotics, and methane emissions from poultry farms.
“Modern poultry farming must find a balance between productivity and society’s ethical requirements. This is a new challenge that the industry has not faced before,” said Maksim Urakin.
In the coming years, further growth in chicken consumption is expected, particularly in low-income countries, as well as an expansion of exports from Brazil, Thailand, and Ukraine. However, alternative proteins — plant-based and cell-based products already entering the market — may pose increasing competition to poultry farming.
For a more detailed overview of trends in poultry farming and graphs showing changes in livestock numbers, see the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel.
agroanalytics, chickens, EXPERTS CLUB, global livestock farming, poultry farming, МАКСИМ УРАКИН
Brazil’s Ministry of Finance has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025, but expects the economic upturn to slow down as a result of the country’s central bank’s tight monetary policy.
The GDP growth forecast for the current year has been raised to 2.5% from the 2.4% expected in May, and for 2026 it has been lowered to 2.4% from 2.5%.
The forecasts do not take into account the consequences of Washington’s introduction of 50% tariffs on all imports from Brazil, the Ministry of Finance notes. Earlier, US President Donald Trump announced that these tariffs would take effect on August 1.
“The tariffs are unlikely to have a significant impact on GDP growth in 2025, although certain industries may suffer quite severely,” the Ministry of Finance said in a statement.
In the first quarter of this year, Brazil’s GDP increased by 1.4% compared to the previous three months, the highest in three quarters. GDP growth in annual terms was 2.9%.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center made a video analysis of the prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies. For more details, see the video at https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=F4IOLdLuVbYmEh5P
In the first half of 2025, the Ukrainian economy demonstrates fragile but positive growth, despite the difficult external environment and high dependence on international financial support. This is stated in an analytical review published by the Experts Club information and analytical center on YouTube.
“We are seeing a cautious but still positive signal: Ukraine’s economy is growing, albeit very slowly. The National Bank forecasts GDP growth of 2.5-3.1% in 2025. This is above the survival line, but not enough for a full recovery,” said Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of Experts Club.
“Inflation remains at 12-13%, which continues to reduce the purchasing power of the population. Despite the NBU’s moderate monetary policy, the pressure on households remains,” the economist explained.
The situation in foreign trade also remains alarming. In May 2025, the trade deficit in goods and services reached $4.1 billion. Imports amounted to $7 billion, while exports were only $3.4 billion. Trade in services also has a negative balance – $1.8 billion against $1.3 billion.
“The structure of exports shows changes. Supplies of pharmaceuticals, wood and live animals are growing, but grain exports have fallen by almost a quarter. And this is even before the loss of possible EUR 3.5 billion in revenues due to the end of EU customs privileges,” emphasizes Urakin.
At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves have increased – as of June 1, they amounted to $44.54 billion. This is more than at the end of 2024, although it is 4.6% less than in April. But the public debt, according to Urakin, remains critically high – $179.2 billion (about 94% of GDP), of which more than $134 billion are external liabilities.
“The reserves are currently sufficient to stabilize the exchange rate and payments. But this is a resource that cannot be exhausted indefinitely. Ukraine remains critically dependent on international assistance – from the IMF, the EU and other partners,” he emphasized.
The global economy, according to the IMF and the World Bank, is expected to show the slowest growth in the last decade in 2025, at 2.3-2.8%. Inflationary pressures, trade disputes, and geopolitical instability are limiting the potential for global recovery. The Bank for International Settlements describes the situation as a “turning point” due to protectionism, declining productivity, and demographic risks.
The United States recorded its first decline in GDP since 2022, down 0.5% year-on-year in the first quarter. The main reasons are weakening consumer demand and declining exports. However, the Atlanta Fed predicts a recovery – 2.5% growth in the second quarter. PCE inflation is 3.1%, core inflation is 2.6%, and the Fed’s key policy rate remains at 5.25-5.5%.
In China, the economy grew by 5.4% in the first quarter. However, the official PMI in June remained below the 50 mark (49.7), indicating instability in the industry. Meanwhile, the private Caixin PMI exceeded 50 for the first time in several months.
The Eurozone is showing signs of stabilization: in the first quarter, GDP grew by 0.6% y-o-y, inflation in June was exactly 2%, i.e. within the ECB’s target. Manufacturing indices are also improving. Germany is still feeling the effects of the last recession. The GDP growth forecast is only 0.3-0.4%, although the manufacturing PMI has exceeded 50 for the first time since 2022. Retail trade, however, remains weak.
The UK surprised with positive dynamics – 0.7% growth in the first quarter, the highest among the G7. Inflation in May was 3.4%, with the Bank of England’s key policy rate at 4.25%.
India continues to lead the way in terms of growth – 7.4% in the first quarter. Inflation was only 2.82%. The central bank cut its key policy rate to 5.5% in response to lower inflationary pressures.
Brazil is expected to grow at 2.1-2.4%, but inflation in May was 5.32%. This forced the regulator to maintain the high Selic rate of 15%.
Japan is showing the first signs of recovery. The PMI in industry reached 50.1, and the composite PMI – 51.4. Inflation in services is 3.3%, and the Bank of Japan may raise rates as early as 2026.
“The global economy is in a turning point. The US and Europe are stagnating, while China is recovering cautiously. Germany and the UK are showing weak but stable growth. India remains the engine of global development. For Ukraine, the main thing is not to lose momentum, maintain access to international financing and adapt to the new conditions of global trade,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
The material was prepared based on the analytical review by Experts Club. Watch the video for more details at the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQsH3lUvMKo&t
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Experts Club has analyzed the brick market in Ukraine and made a number of conclusions and forecasts. The brick market in Ukraine is gradually recovering from the destruction and recession caused by the full-scale war in 2022. In 2024, there was an increase in construction activity, especially in the residential and infrastructure construction segment, which provoked an increase in demand for bricks.
At the end of 2024, the market showed an increase in capacity by 18.5%. In the first half of 2024, production reached ~249 million bricks, up 20.4% compared to the same period in 2023. The annual production volume in 2024 was estimated at 500-520 million bricks, and in 2025 – 535-555 million bricks with a forecast growth of 7%.
The largest Ukrainian producers are concentrated in the central and western regions of the country. Due to the hostilities in 2022-2023, refractory brick factories in the east, such as Bilokamianske and Zymohirske, were destroyed or decommissioned.
However, a large part of traditional brick production managed to maintain or resume operations by 2024.
Imports.
Due to the destruction of production facilities and rising demand, Ukraine is increasing its brick imports. The main supplier countries are: Poland
Imported products are mainly sent to the western and central regions and are used in high-budget construction and decoration.
Market shares: imports vs. domestic production
Based on estimates for 2025:
This makes it possible to compensate for the shortage in some regions and support construction during the reconstruction period.
Prices.
Experts Club ‘s forecasts are as follows:
Brick factories operating in the government-controlled areas
There are more than 30 brick factories operating in the government-controlled areas, including ceramic, silicate and clinker. Among the largest are:
Currently, the products of these plants cover more than 70% of domestic demand for bricks in construction.
Major brick importers to Ukraine
To compensate for the deficit and ensure high quality in some market segments (refractory, clinker, facing), Ukraine imports products from
In 2024, the Ukrainian brick market entered a phase of active recovery. Domestic production provides the bulk of the output, but the share of imports remains significant and is growing. Restoration of the destroyed infrastructure, support from the government and international funds will continue to stimulate the market, and prices will stabilize closer to 2026.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/rynok-czegly-v-ukrayini-v-2024-2025-rokah-korotkyj-oglyad-vid-experts-club/
Ukraine is preparing to announce a tender for the development of the Dobra lithium deposit, which could become the first project within the framework of cooperation with the US, according to the head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak.
“Ukraine is preparing to announce a tender for the development of the Dobra lithium deposit in the Kirovohrad region. This could be the first project within the framework of cooperation with the US. I am glad to see that the process is moving forward and that the results of our meetings in Washington a week ago are turning into concrete actions,” Yermak wrote on Telegram on Wednesday.
For more details on the prospects for rare earth element mining in Ukraine, see the video from the Experts Club analytical center – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHeBfpywpQc&t
