The European Union is facing a serious crisis in the supply of critical materials after the decision of the Chinese government to impose new export restrictions on rare-earth magnets and raw materials for their production, reports Politico.
As noted, Beijing’s decision in early October has escalated the trade standoff with the United States and created risks for European industry, which is almost entirely dependent on imports of such elements from China.
“A crisis in the supply of critical raw materials is no longer a remote risk. It is already on our doorstep,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told MEPs on the eve of the EU summit.
She emphasized the need for “decisive and urgent action” to ensure faster and more reliable supplies of critical materials “both within Europe itself and from trusted partners.”
European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said the EU was not interested in escalating tensions, but emphasized the need to resolve the situation quickly. “However, this situation casts a shadow on our relations. Therefore, a quick solution is essential,” he said.
Šefčovič said China and the EU will “strengthen contacts at all levels” to discuss the restrictions. Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao is due to arrive in Brussels for consultations in the coming days.
“The European Union is also holding talks with the G7 countries on an agreed response to the crisis ahead of a ministerial meeting to be held October 30-31 in Canada,” the report said.
Earlier, the information and analytical center Experts Club analyzed the global market of rare earth metals of the world and Ukraine, the video is available here -.
https://youtu.be/UHeBfpywpQc?si=0L-2nSUrLlIbqVZ5?si=Fk6Oi_13NKpEW81K
CHINA, EUROPEAN UNION, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORT, rare earth elements
In September, the Chinese economy showed higher-than-expected growth rates in industry and retail trade, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand and business activity.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, industrial production grew by 6.5% year-on-year, the highest rate since June. In August, growth was 5.2%, and analysts had expected a slowdown to 5%.
The largest contributors were:
manufacturing — +7.3%,
mining — +6.4%,
oil and gas — +8.9%,
automobile production — +16%,
computers and telecommunications equipment — +11.3%.
Growth was recorded in 36 of 41 sectors of the economy. Overall, industrial production increased by 6.2% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period last year.
Retail sales in September grew by 3% year-on-year. This is slightly less than in August (3.4%), but still better than analysts’ forecasts (2.9%).
The largest increases were in sales of food products (+6.3%), jewelry (+9.7%), and clothing (+4.7%). Car sales rose by 1.6%, while petroleum product sales fell by 7.1%.
Since the beginning of the year, retail turnover has reached 36.6 trillion yuan (about $5.1 trillion), which is 4.5% more than a year earlier.
Investments in fixed assets as a whole declined slightly, by 0.5%, mainly due to a decline in the construction sector (-13.9%). At the same time, investments in infrastructure and manufacturing grew by 1.1% and 4%, respectively.
The unemployment rate in September fell to 5.2% from 5.3% a month earlier.
Experts from the Experts Club analytical center note that the Chinese economy remains stable despite the slowdown in global demand and difficulties in the real estate sector.
Reference: Experts Club.
For several years now, China has ranked first in the world in terms of economic size, calculated in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), ahead of the US and the EU. This confirms its status as the largest industrial and consumer center on the planet.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of June 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Ukraine ended the first half of 2025 in a state of moderate but fragile stabilization. After a “flat” start to the year and a weak first quarter, which the NBU assessed as a period of subdued activity, in April-June the economy maintained positive momentum primarily due to domestic consumption and sectors that adapted to military logistics. In its April decision, the NBU kept the policy rate at 15.5%, emphasizing the need to support currency stability and reduce inflation expectations; in its July decision, the regulator confirmed this level, which anchored rates for hryvnia instruments.
Inflation slowed significantly: in June, the annual rate fell to 14.3% y/y (from 15.9% in May), reflecting a combination of tighter monetary policy, currency stability, and price adjustments for certain food groups; the monthly rate was +0.8%. This is the first significant “dip” in annual inflation below 15% this year.
Foreign trade remains the main source of imbalances. In January–May, exports of goods amounted to about $16.95 billion, imports to $31.54 billion, and the negative balance deepened to $14.6 billion (+49% y/y). The key drivers of imports were energy, machinery, and chemicals; exports were structurally biased toward food and raw materials.
Against the backdrop of the trade gap, international reserves remained an important buffer. As of July 1, 2025, they reached $45.1 billion (+1.2% in June) thanks to large inflows from partners (in particular, the EU, Canada, and the World Bank), which exceeded FX interventions and debt payments. This is a historically high level for Ukraine and a critical safety margin for the currency market.
“Current growth is supported by consumption and official financing; without the launch of an investment cycle, it will remain low and unsustainable. International reserves are a stabilization tool, not a source of development; the effect will only appear after they are converted into value-added projects. The trade deficit, in turn, is structural in nature: it should be addressed through logistics, energy modernization, and localization of production, not just exchange rate decisions,” said Maksim Urakin.
The debt burden has increased. As of June 30, 2025, the total public and publicly guaranteed debt was estimated at approximately $184.8 billion (equivalent to UAH 7.697 trillion), adding nearly $3.9 billion in a month. External liabilities structurally prevail, which increases dependence on official financing.
International support remained systemic. On June 30, the IMF completed the eighth review of the EFF program and approved further financing (total payments under the program exceeded $10 billion), while confirming Ukraine’s fulfillment of key criteria and continuation of structural reforms.
“The second quarter showed that the economy has learned to operate in a mode of constant shocks — we see the resilience of small and medium-sized businesses, the flexibility of logistics, and the rapid reorientation of exporters. But the fundamentals remain unchanged: the investment cycle has not been launched, and the trade deficit is structural; it will not disappear without a targeted industrial policy and incentives for localizing production. The discount rate of 15.5% is a compromise between the price of money and currency stability; it works as long as official financing enters the country. If we want to get out of “survival mode,” we need long-term money to restore energy, logistics hubs, and high-tech production. Reserves of over $45 billion are not a reason to relax, but a window of opportunity that must be converted into value-added projects, otherwise exchange rate stability will remain expensive and temporary,” Maksim Urakin emphasized:
Global economy
The world moved unevenly in the first half of 2025. After a technical contraction in the first quarter (-0.5% SAAR, -0.1% q/q), the US entered the second quarter with a recovery in demand: by the end of June, there were already signs of easing price pressure on the PCE index (≈2.5% y/y in May) and stabilization of household spending. Later official estimates show a significant rebound in the second quarter, but as of June 30, the key picture was “cold” demand amid high interest rates.
The eurozone showed a contrast: after a strong Q1 (+0.6% q/q), momentum moderated in April–June; preliminary estimates show Q2 added +0.1% q/q. The factors were weak external conditions, a correction in industry, and cautious consumers, despite easing inflation. The UK remained a positive exception among the G7: +0.7% q/q in Q1 and +0.3% q/q in Q2, although inflation accelerated to 3.6% y/y in June, slowing down the pace of monetary policy easing.
China maintained a pace close to its official target: GDP +5.2% y/y in Q2 (after +5.4% in Q1), but inflation remained sluggish — June CPI +0.1% y/y, reflecting weak domestic consumption and pressure from real estate. Exports and industrial production drove growth, but the question of the sustainability of domestic demand remained open.
Turkey grew by 2.0% y/y in Q1; inflation in June fell to ≈35% y/y, demonstrating the effect of protracted disinflation despite high rates and a cool business cycle.
India remained the most dynamic major economy: in Q4 of fiscal year 2024/25, real GDP grew by 7.4% y/y, and by 6.5% for the year as a whole; inflation in June came close to ≈2% y/y (according to MoSPI publications), creating room for cautious policy easing going forward.
Brazil added +1.4% q/q (2.9% y/y) in Q1 on the back of strong agriculture; the IPCA in June was 5.35% y/y (+0.24% m/m), remaining above the central bank’s target and forcing monetary authorities to act cautiously.
“Global growth in the first half of 2025 is a mosaic of different speeds. The US is balancing between tight rates and the desire not to ”overbrake” demand, Europe is slowly emerging from stagnation, China is holding the bar thanks to exports, but domestic demand has not yet recovered. For Ukraine, this means one simple thing: we should not expect external demand to pull us out of the doldrums on its own. We need targeted industrial programs, support for high value-added exports, and a transparent import substitution policy where it makes economic sense. Then, even amid global turbulence, we will be able to turn record reserves and international support into a long investment cycle and a new economic structure,” Maxim Urakhin concluded.
At the end of June 2025, Ukraine’s economy remains in a state of controlled equilibrium: inflation is slowing, reserves are at historic levels, and monetary policy is predictable. At the same time, a deep trade deficit, high debt burden, and weak investment flows remain key risks that require immediate responses — from tax and customs policy to incentives for localizing production and restoring critical infrastructure.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1113998.html
Against the backdrop of rapid growth in international gold prices, residents of a number of Asian countries really did rush to buy bullion — and in the first half of the day, stores sometimes closed by noon. Vietnamese people in a number of cities lined up at dawn when legislation finally abolished the state monopoly on gold trading.
Meanwhile, the price of gold has already surpassed $4,300 per ounce and continues to hit historic highs.
Growing expectations of a Fed interest rate cut and tensions in US-China relations have pushed investors toward “safe havens” — gold has become a safe asset. Against the backdrop of inflationary pressure and market volatility, the precious metal is once again in the spotlight for investors.
In Australia, at the peak of gold price growth, areas and rivers traditionally used by amateur gold miners (washing gold in river streams) are once again attracting attention. Some people are earning hundreds of dollars in just a few hours. This phenomenon is being covered by the media as a “gold renaissance” not only in the corporate sector, but also among mass investors.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in its video on YouTube channel — https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=YuRnDiu7jtfUPBR9
Global demand for steel in 2025 will remain at the previous year’s level — about 1.748 billion tons, after a 1.6% decline in 2024. These figures are given in the short-term forecast of the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) — Short Range Outlook (SRO).
In 2026, according to experts, demand will grow by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, driven by recovery in Europe, India, and the rapidly developing countries of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
According to Worldsteel’s forecast, in the CIS countries, including Ukraine, demand for steel will decline by 5.2% in 2025, to 56.1 million tons, and by another 1.7% in 2026, to 55.2 million tons.
At the same time, India will retain its status as the world’s fastest-growing steel market, with growth of around 9% annually in 2025-2026. Already next year, steel consumption in India will be almost 75 million tons higher than in 2020.
In developing countries (excluding China), demand for steel will increase by 3.4% in 2025 and by 4.7% in 2026, driven by active economic development in ASEAN countries, as well as in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
In Africa, steel consumption is growing by an average of 5.5% annually, reaching 41 million tons in 2025 — the highest level in the last decade. Growth is driven by investments in construction and improved macroeconomic indicators.
Andriy Ozeychuk, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Ukrainian Steel Construction Center and Director of Rauta, commented on the market situation and prospects for the Ukrainian steel sector.
“The Ukrainian steel market in 2025–2026 will be shaped by the recovery of domestic demand in construction and machine building, as well as the growth of exports of metal structures to the EU. We predict that demand for steel in Ukraine may grow by 6-8% in 2026 due to infrastructure and industrial recovery projects,” Ozeychuk said.
According to him, the steel construction sector will be the driver of this growth:
“The use of metal structures will accelerate the restoration of logistics, industrial, and infrastructure facilities.”
Ozeychuk also stressed that the launch of joint programs with European partners in the field of “green” metallurgy, where Ukraine already has its first pilot initiatives for the production of steel with a low carbon footprint, could give the industry an additional boost.
According to the forecast, demand for steel in the EU+UK region will increase by 1.3% in 2025 and by 3.2% in 2026. This reflects the impact of increased investment in infrastructure and defense amid lower inflation and improved household incomes.
In the US, Worldsteel expects steel consumption to increase by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026. The main drivers of growth will be government spending on infrastructure, a revival in housing construction, and private investment.
In China, steel demand will continue to decline, by approximately 2% in 2025, due to the prolonged downturn in the real estate market. In 2026, the rate of decline will slow to 1% as the construction sector is expected to bottom out.
Worldsteel warns that a more challenging global trade environment and financial pressure on local authorities could further limit infrastructure investment and reduce demand.
According to Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chief economist of the Spanish Steel Manufacturers Association (UNESID) and chairman of the Worldsteel Economic Committee, the organization is “cautiously optimistic” about the market outlook:
“Despite trade disputes and uncertainty, we believe that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and show moderate growth in 2026,” the expert said.
He added that this will be facilitated by the resilience of the global economy, growth in infrastructure investment, and easing financial conditions. At the same time, the sector continues to be pressured by high costs, trade barriers, and geopolitical risks.
Worldsteel’s forecast emphasizes that the decline in demand in China is offset by strong growth in India and developing countries, where a new center of global steel production is emerging.
In addition, the protective measures introduced by the European Union — reducing duty-free import quotas and increasing customs duties to 50% — may change the balance between EU producers and exporters from Asia and Eastern Europe.
For more information on the largest steel producers and global industry trends, see the Experts Club video analysis review available on YouTube: Experts Club — Leaders of the global steel industry 1990–2024
CHINA, EU, EXPERTS CLUB, global economy, INDIA, OZEYCHUK, RAUTA, USA, World Steel, WORLDSTEEL
According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in 2024 Ukraine ranked 9th in the world in wheat production, producing about 23.4 million tons of grain. This information is presented in a new study by Experts Club, based on FAOSTAT statistics and the video “Wheat Production by Country (1991–2024)”.
The top three wheat producers remain traditionally stable:
China — 136 million tons,
India — 113.9 million tons,
Russia — 81.6 million tons.
These three countries account for nearly half of global wheat production and play a crucial role in the world’s agricultural system.
They are followed by:
United States — 53.6 million tons,
France — 35.9 million tons,
Canada — 35.9 million tons,
Australia — 34.1 million tons,
Pakistan — 31.4 million tons,
Ukraine — 23.4 million tons,
Germany — 21.5 million tons.
The second ten producers are opened by Turkey (19 million tons) and Kazakhstan (18.6 million tons), with Italy (6.9 million tons) closing the list.
The Experts Club video analysis demonstrates significant structural changes in global wheat production over the past three decades. The video covers the period from 1991 to 2024. During this time, China and India have almost doubled their production thanks to increased yields and consistent government support for the agricultural sector.
Russia and Ukraine, after a sharp decline in the 1990s, made a remarkable recovery: in the early 1990s, Ukraine produced around 15 million tons, while by 2024 the volume had increased to 23–24 million tons — despite war-related risks and export restrictions.
Kazakhstan, traditionally focused on exports, has maintained its position, supplying grain to Central Asia and parts of China.
Despite military actions and damage to part of its infrastructure, Ukraine remains one of the world’s leading wheat exporters. The main factors behind this are high yields in southern and central regions, improved logistics through Danube ports, and export routes via Romania and Bulgaria.
According to FAO, in 2024 Ukraine exported about 17 million tons of wheat, keeping the country among the three largest global grain suppliers, along with Russia and the United States.
Experts from Experts Club note that growth in production across Asia and CIS countries compensates for declining yields in Europe and North America, which are affected by droughts and climate change. At the same time, Turkey, Iran, and Egypt are strengthening their roles as regional centers of processing and import.
Global markets expect wheat prices to stabilize within the range of 230–250 USD per ton, provided there are no new geopolitical shocks.
“Ukraine’s position in the TOP-10 global wheat producers is a testament to the resilience of its agricultural sector, even during wartime. With the expansion of domestic processing, Ukraine can reach 25–27 million tons of production in the coming years and strengthen its place among the world’s top five exporters.
At the same time, the grain market is becoming increasingly technology-driven: digitalization of agribusiness, precision farming, and climate-resilient wheat varieties will determine leadership in the next decade,” said Maksym Urakin, co-founder of the analytical center Experts Club.
Ukraine remains one of the few countries where the agricultural sector accounts for about 40% of foreign currency earnings. In 2024, wheat ranked second in export volume after corn, and revenues from grain sales exceeded 6 billion USD.
According to Experts Club forecasts, if the pace of infrastructure recovery continues and weather conditions remain favorable, Ukraine’s wheat production may reach 25 million tons in 2025, and exports could exceed 18 million tons.
The study was prepared by the analytical center Experts Club based on data from FAOSTAT, USDA, and IGC.
The video analysis “Wheat Production by Country 1991–2024” is available on the Experts Club Ukraine YouTube channel.
AGRICULTURE, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORT, FAO, GLOBAL PRODUCTION, UKRAINE, WHEAT
