Most residents of Romania would support the unification of the country with the Republic of Moldova in the event of a referendum, according to the information and analytical center Experts Club, citing a nationwide January survey by the Romanian Center for Urban and Regional Sociology (CURS).
According to the study, in a hypothetical vote on the reunification of Moldova with Romania—publicly supported by Moldovan President Maia Sandu—56% of respondents said they would vote “in favor,” 37% “against,” and another 7% were undecided.
The survey was conducted from January 14 to 23, 2026, using the CATI method (telephone interviews) on a sample of 1,067 adult residents of Romania. The stated maximum margin of error is ±3% with a 95% confidence level.
In the event of a hypothetical unification of Romania and Moldova within Moldova’s internationally recognized borders (that is, including the territory of Transnistria), the united country would have:
a population of about 22 million people (18.91 million in Romania plus 3.0 million in Moldova, according to UN estimates),
an area of about 272.1 thousand square kilometers (238,298 sq. km + 33,847 sq. km),
a nominal GDP of about $423 billion, according to IMF estimates for 2025 (Romania $403.4 billion plus Moldova $19.5 billion).
In comparison with pan-European rankings, this would correspond to approximately 10th place in Europe by population (above Kazakhstan and below Poland), 11th place by area (between Italy and the United Kingdom), and around 15th place by nominal GDP (between Denmark and the Czech Republic).
The Moldovan government has extended temporary protection for displaced persons from Ukraine until March 1, 2027, with the country switching from automatic renewal to renewal upon application from 2026. Online applications must be submitted between February 1 and April 30, 2026, with a processing time of up to 90 days. The authorities also indicate that temporary protection may be revoked if the person is absent from Moldova for more than 45 days in total.
The Experts Club Information and Analytical Center also provides key terms for extension in other jurisdictions.
1) European Union. EU countries have agreed to extend the temporary protection mechanism for Ukrainians until March 4, 2027 (previously until March 4, 2026).
2) Switzerland. The Federal Council has extended the S protection status until at least March 4, 2027.
3) United Kingdom. The Ukraine Permission Extension (UPE) scheme is in effect, allowing individuals with valid Ukrainian migration status in the UK to apply for an additional 18 months of stay; the scheme is open from February 4, 2025.
4) United States. The US Department of Homeland Security has extended TPS status for Ukraine: the current extension period is valid until October 19, 2026 (an 18-month extension, counting from April 20, 2025).
5) Canada. For some Ukrainians and their family members who have applied for family reunification and are awaiting a decision on permanent status, measures have been introduced to support legal residence, including the possibility to apply for documents and permits from within Canada, with a deadline of March 31, 2027.
6) Norway. The authorities have decided to extend the collective protection scheme for another year; according to the UDI, the extension for most holders of such permits will take place automatically after the current term expires.
Experts Club notes that the differences between countries are most often related not to the principle of protection itself, but to administration: some countries apply automatic extension, while others apply extension upon application (as in Moldova from 2026), as well as requirements for actual presence and document renewal.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of September 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators
During the first nine months of 2025, Ukraine operated in a “managed economy” mode, maintaining its adaptability to wartime restrictions, but the pace of recovery remained moderate and the investment momentum insufficient. The NBU’s baseline forecasts in the summer of 2025 included a target for real GDP growth in 2025 of 2.1%, which set the framework for business and financial sector expectations for the second half of the year.
“Based on the results for January–September 2025, Ukraine’s economy is showing its ability to maintain basic activity under military restrictions. The recovery is continuing, but its pace remains moderate and is largely based on consumption and external financing. According to market observations, investment activity is mainly focused on restoration and replacement rather than capacity expansion. The key task for the coming quarters is to increase the share of long-term projects in the energy, logistics, processing, and technology sectors,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Inflation dynamics in September were more subdued than during the peak periods of the year. According to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices rose by 0.3% m/m in September 2025, by 6.3% since the beginning of the year, and annual inflation (September 2025 to September 2024) was 11.9%. Core inflation was higher on a monthly basis: +1.3% m/m, and on an annual basis: 11.0% y/y.
Monetary policy remained tight and aimed at keeping expectations in check: on September 11, 2025, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%. At the same time, the NBU’s inflation report laid out the logic of maintaining the rate at 15.5% until the fourth quarter of 2025 as part of a disinflationary trajectory and exchange rate stability.
“Inflation dynamics in 2025 will be determined not only by monetary factors, but also by supply factors—harvests, logistics, energy constraints, and the import component of costs. In these conditions, keeping the discount rate high serves to contain inflation expectations and reduce pressure on the currency market. At the same time, monetary measures must be complemented by government policies that stimulate competition and supply in the domestic market. Without this, inflation risks will remain sensitive to price and logistics shocks,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Foreign trade remained one of the key sources of macro risks. According to the State Statistics Service, in January–July 2025, exports of goods amounted to $23.31 billion (96.5% of the corresponding period in 2024), while imports amounted to $45.94 billion (116.9%). The negative balance amounted to $22.63 billion, reflecting the structural gap between import demand (energy, equipment, critical goods) and export opportunities.
International reserves remained a compensator for military risks and trade imbalances. According to the NBU, as of October 1, 2025, international reserves amounted to $46.52 billion, having increased in September; the NBU also noted that this amount corresponded to the financing of 5.1 months of future imports.
The debt burden remained high. According to data publicly cited with reference to the Ministry of Finance, as of September 30, 2025, the state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 8,024.1 billion (equivalent to $194.2 billion); of which external debt amounted to UAH 6,063.2 billion and domestic debt amounted to UAH 1,960.9 billion.
Global economy
In 2025, the global economy continued on a moderate growth trajectory, but at different speeds across regions and with increased sensitivity to trade and financial risks. According to the July update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, global growth in 2025 was estimated at 3.0% and in 2026 at 3.1%, explained by a combination of financial conditions and trade lead-through effects.
World Bank materials emphasized that the outlook remains fragile due to increased trade barriers and high uncertainty; in the baseline scenario, after a slowdown, growth was expected to pick up to around 2.5% in 2026–2027.
“The global economy in 2025 is growing moderately and unevenly across regions, with financial conditions and trade risks remaining key variables. The US is supporting part of global demand, but dependence on the cost of money and the consumption cycle remains. The European economy is recovering slowly, while China is showing growth driven by industry and exports, with uneven domestic demand. For Ukraine, this means the need to focus on competitive niches and systematic support for exports with higher added value, rather than waiting for favorable external conditions,” said Maksim Urakin.
According to the BEA’s third estimate, real US GDP grew by 3.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter of 2025, while a decline was recorded in the first quarter. Among the key growth factors, the BEA cited a reduction in imports (which are deducted from GDP calculations) and an increase in consumer spending, partially offset by weaker investment and export dynamics.
According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in the eurozone and 0.2% q/q in the EU in Q2 2025, indicating a very moderate recovery in economic activity.
According to preliminary estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, GDP grew by 5.3% y/y in the first half of 2025 and by 5.2% y/y in the second quarter, meaning that the economy maintained a pace of “above 5%” on an annualized basis.
According to an official government press release (PIB), India’s real GDP in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (April-June 2025) grew by 7.8% y/y, confirming one of the highest growth rates among major economies.
TurkStat reported that in the second quarter of 2025, Turkey’s GDP grew by 4.8% y/y, which formally meant an acceleration in annual growth, although the structure of demand and foreign trade conditions remained important for assessing sustainability.
“The main external risks in 2025 are related to trade restrictions, changes in regulatory regimes, energy costs, and logistical constraints. In such conditions, countries with high productivity and a diversified export structure gain an advantage in the competition for capital and markets. It is advisable for Ukraine to develop risk management tools for exporters, expand its sales geography, and increase the predictability of rules for investors. This reduces dependence on short-term fluctuations in external markets and increases the stability of the balance of payments,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Conclusions
January–September 2025 is a period of relative macrofinancial manageability for Ukraine: inflation slowed to 11.9% y/y in September, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%, and international reserves rose to $46.52 billion as of October 1. At the same time, the trade imbalance and high debt burden continue to pose medium-term risks, which can be addressed not by “stabilization” but by structural changes—investment, productivity, processing, and exports with higher added value.
“In the medium term, the key areas are the development of processing, the localization of supply chains where economically feasible, and the expansion of exports of higher value-added products. At the same time, it is important to maintain the predictability of monetary and fiscal decisions and ensure transparent conditions for private capital. In the absence of such steps, macro stability will remain primarily a function of external financing. If these steps are taken, they can become the basis for a longer investment cycle and a more sustainable economic structure,” concluded Maksim Urakin.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/osnovni-ekonomichni-indykatory-ukrayiny-ta-svitu-vid-experts-club-2/
The gold market entered a phase of rapid acceleration in January 2026, with prices repeatedly hitting historic highs during the month and, for the first time ever, firmly settling above $5,000 per troy ounce. On January 26, the spot price rose to $5,110.50, with growth since the beginning of 2026 estimated at approximately 18%.
A key feature of the current movement is that it formed in “stages” on the wave of news triggers and demand for defensive assets. In the middle of the month, gold hit a record high of around $4,641 amid a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of a softening of Fed policy. Then, on January 19, gold and silver rewrote their highs after a surge in the flight to safety amid discussions about Greenland and tariff signals from the US. By January 23, gold had risen to around $4,988, and on January 26, the market crossed the psychological threshold of $5,000 and accelerated to $5,110.
The fundamental drivers of the January rally are as follows:
1) Politics and geopolitics. Investors are paying a higher risk premium due to foreign policy and trade signals from the US administration, as well as general market nervousness. Reuters directly links the surge in gold to growing demand for a “safe haven” amid volatility and geopolitical factors.
2) Currencies and interest rates. The weakening of the dollar and expectations of lower interest rates supported gold as a non-yielding asset (an alternative to bonds), especially against the backdrop of expectations of the Fed’s decisions at the end of January.
3) Central banks. Purchases by regulators remain high: the World Gold Council estimated net purchases by central banks at 45 tons in November, with total purchases for January-November at 297 tons.
4) Investment flows and “new” large buyers. Demand from atypical players is emerging in the market: for example, Tether reported purchasing about 27 tons of gold in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Possible scenarios for the near future look diverse.
The market is focused on US macro statistics and the trajectory of Fed policy: any signals of tighter rates could trigger a correction after rapid growth. At the same time, the “rally continues” scenario remains in place if the risk premium remains high and demand from central banks remains stable. Against this backdrop, investment houses are already raising their targets: Reuters reported that Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $5,400 per ounce and expects central banks to continue making significant purchases.
The baseline scenario for the market in the near future is high volatility with a continuing upward trend: January’s rapid growth increases the likelihood of pullbacks “on the news” and profit-taking, but structural factors (diversification of reserves, geopolitical risks, demand for hedging) still appear to be stronger.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video on gold production by the world’s leading economies from 1975 to 2024 – https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=BT8LW70pzdJThvqN
https://expertsclub.eu/rynok-zolota-v-sichni-2026-uvijshov-u-fazu-rizkogo-pryskorennya-experts-club/
The spot price of platinum exceeded $2,900 per troy ounce for the first time during trading on Monday amid growing demand for safe-haven assets due to fears of another US government shutdown.
As of 14:28 GMT, platinum was trading at around $2,888 per ounce after hitting a record high above $2,900.
The precious metals market is also being supported by expectations related to the financing of US federal agencies: the federal government is expected to run out of funds on January 31, and investors are assessing the risk that Congress will not approve a new financing package before that date.
Platinum is one of the key industrial metals: it is widely used in catalytic systems to reduce harmful emissions (including in the automotive industry), in petrochemicals and the chemical industry as a catalyst, as well as in the manufacture of electronics and in certain types of hydrogen technologies where corrosion-resistant and high-temperature materials are required.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video analysis of the production of platinum group metals by the world’s leading manufacturers for the period 1971-2024, – https://youtube.com/shorts/vj4mBkJVxrg?si=pPTU6_l0t9-iCBb4
The spot price of gold exceeded $5,000 per troy ounce for the first time on Monday amid growing demand for safe-haven assets. As of 8:02 a.m., the spot price of gold rose 1.8% to $5,078.54 per ounce, reaching $5,093.05 per ounce during the session.
The price is supported by fears of another US government shutdown and the weakening of the dollar: the DXY index, which reflects the dynamics of the US currency against six major world currencies, is down 0.5%.
Since the beginning of the year, gold has risen in price by 15.5%.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in its video on YouTube channel — https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=BywddHO-JFWFqUFA
