The analysis of key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for January-September 2024 is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In January-September 2024, Ukraine’s economy showed a slight growth. According to the Ministry of Economy, real GDP growth in July was 2.7% in annualized terms, which is better than June’s 1.1%, but worse than May’s 3.7%. In the third quarter of 2024, growth may exceed the previously forecasted 3.1%.
“The Ukrainian economy continues to move forward despite the difficult challenges caused by the war and external economic factors. Our key task remains to maintain stable growth and attract investment in strategic sectors of the economy,” – said Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
However, rising inflation remains a challenge for the economy. In September, annual inflation reached 8.6%, accelerating from 7.5% in August. Consumer prices increased by 1.5% month-on-month, after 0.6% in August and zero in July. The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its inflation forecast for 2024, increasing it from 8.5% to 9.7%.
“Inflation remains one of the key challenges. High price growth rates significantly reduce the purchasing power of the population, which creates additional risks for the economy,” Urakin emphasized.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods increased by 5.9% over the first nine months of the year and reached $20.382 billion, indicating high imports and insufficient export growth.
“The increase in the negative trade balance signals the need to revise export support strategies. Only by developing the competitiveness of national production can we achieve balanced economic growth,” Urakin said.
Ukraine’s state budget revenues in September dropped to UAH 122.9 billion after a sharp increase in August to UAH 387.4 billion, driven by grants from the US and EU. This underscores the importance of external assistance to support the budget in times of war.
Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 8.1% in September, reaching $38.9 billion. The main reason for this was a decline in international revenues amid debt repayments.
Global economic situation
The International Monetary Fund maintained its forecast for global economic growth at 3.2% in 2024. At the same time, the US economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter amid a 3.7% increase in consumer spending. The European Union’s economy shows more modest results: the growth forecast for 2024 has been lowered to 0.9%, and in the Eurozone – to 0.8%.
“The global economy is facing a number of challenges, including a slowdown in China and high interest rates. However, the key problem remains the persistent price pressure and geopolitical instability,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
The Chinese economy grew by 4.6% in the third quarter, but the growth forecast for 2024 was lowered to 4.8%. India continues to show stable growth at 7%, and Brazil has improved its performance to 3%.
“The global economy is now balancing between recovery and new risks. Forecasts for the coming years depend on the resolution of geopolitical conflicts and the ability of global leaders to stabilize the economy,” added Maksim Urakin.
The economic indicators of Ukraine and the world for the first nine months of 2024 show a contradictory picture. GDP growth and positive signals from global markets are combined with inflationary risks and an imbalance in foreign trade. The global economy is also under pressure from numerous uncertainties.
“It is important for Ukraine to focus on structural reforms that stimulate export growth and attract foreign investment. Only through the sustainable development of key industries can long-term economic stability be ensured,” – summarized Maksim Urakin.
On Monday, members of the Bundestag passed a vote of no confidence in the government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Bavarian Radio reports.
“The chancellor put up a confidence vote in the Bundestag and lost it as planned. This means that the president will dissolve the parliament, and elections will be held in February,” the radio station notes.
394 MPs expressed no confidence in Scholz’s government, 207 supported the government, and 116 abstained.
Scholz himself had previously called for such a vote, as European media reported that it would allow him to hold early elections. Now, Scholz is expected to ask German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve the Bundestag. If the parliament is dissolved, elections in Germany must be held within 60 days from the date of dissolution.
Earlier, Scholz, who heads the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), agreed with opposition parties on plans to hold early elections on February 23, 2025.
In November, the ruling coalition in Germany collapsed due to disagreements over Scholz’s economic policy.
At the same time, German parties are already preparing for early elections. The SPD leadership has decided to re-nominate Scholz as a candidate for chancellor. This decision still has to be approved by the party congress on January 11, 2025, but German media noted that this is just a formality. So far, the CDU leader Friedrich Merz, German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck from the Union 90/Greens party, and the head of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party Alice Weidel have also been considered candidates for the chancellorship.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video review of the most important elections in the world – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=k5LDANC7lkpbK0Nh
Maksim Urakin, Founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, PhD in Economics, shared his observations on key indicators and risks for the Ukrainian and global economies as of November 2024.
Macroeconomic situation in Ukraine
According to Maksim Urakin, Ukraine’s economy continues to show slow growth.
“According to the National Bank, in October 2024, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 1.3% compared to October last year. This is worse than the September figures, but significantly better than the data for the summer months. However, there are negative trends in agriculture. This year’s harvest was significantly lower than last year’s, which hit the agricultural sector, one of the key drivers of the economy,” said Maksim Urakin.
The expert also pointed to a sharp deterioration in the foreign trade balance.
“The deficit of foreign trade in goods increased by almost 6% over the first nine months, reaching a frightening $20 billion. The main reasons for this were the growth of energy imports and the lack of labor at export-oriented enterprises,” Urakin added.
According to the expert, Ukraine’s national debt is also a cause for great concern.
“As of October 2024, the debt is already 6.4 trillion hryvnias, or about $155 billion. At the same time, international reserves have decreased by more than $2 billion and amount to $36 billion,” Urakin emphasized.
Global economy: challenges and prospects
At the global level, the key risks are associated with the growing debt burden.
“Global public debt already exceeds $100 trillion, which is 93% of global GDP. In the coming years, this figure will continue to grow, which puts additional pressure on the budgets of most countries,” Urakin said.
The economies of developed countries, according to the expert, show heterogeneous dynamics. The United States is showing steady growth, with its GDP increasing by almost 3% in the third quarter. At the same time, the eurozone economy is actually stagnating, and Germany has faced zero dynamics, the economist said.
At the same time, China continues to play a key role in the global economy. “In the third quarter, China’s GDP growth remained at 5%, but the pace slowed due to geopolitical tensions and internal problems, particularly in the construction sector,” said Maksim Urakin.
Looking to the future
Maksim Urakin expressed cautious optimism about the long-term prospects.
“The global economy is facing many challenges, including inflation, geopolitical conflicts and protectionism. However, despite all the difficulties, there are reasons to believe that growth will continue at least within moderate limits,” he concluded.
The expert also called for more active international coordination to overcome economic challenges.
“Stability requires joint efforts, and only through dialogue and cooperation will we be able to minimize risks,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grE5wjPaItI
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
This article provides a comprehensive overview of key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for the period from January to August 2024. The analytics are based on data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN. Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club think tank and Director of Business Development and Marketing, analyzed the main economic trends. The article focuses on GDP, inflation, foreign trade, Ukraine’s public debt, and global economic processes.
Ukraine’s economy: growth dynamics
In the first eight months of 2024, the Ukrainian economy showed a steady recovery. Real GDP grew by 3.7% in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2023, and in July the growth rate accelerated to 4.4%. According to Maxim Urakin, these results are largely due to the early harvest.
“Ukraine’s economic recovery is an encouraging signal. At the same time, the growing negative foreign trade balance is a challenge that requires strengthening domestic production and increasing exports,” emphasizes Maksym Urakin.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s foreign trade deficit increased by 6.5% to $17.613 billion due to a decline in exports amid an increase in imports. At the same time, international reserves reached a record $42.33 billion, which indicates confidence on the part of international partners.
Inflation and debt
Inflation in Ukraine rose to 7.5% in August, higher than in July (5.4%) and June (4.8%). Month-on-month, prices in August increased by 0.6% compared to July.
Ukraine’s public debt increased by $1.1 billion in dollar terms in the second quarter of 2024. At the same time, the weighted average debt service rate decreased to 5.6% per annum, which is a positive signal for financial stability.
“Efficient debt management, including lower interest rates, opens up new opportunities for strategic investments,” said Maksym Urakin.
Global economy: challenges and opportunities
The International Monetary Fund forecasts global economic growth of 3.2% in 2024. The main drivers remain China and India, whose economies are expected to grow by 5% and 7%, respectively. At the same time, the European economy is showing more modest results: GDP growth in the eurozone is expected to reach 0.9%.
“It is important for Ukraine to seize the opportunity and consolidate its position in the EU markets, ensuring the competitiveness of its goods,” emphasizes Maksym Urakin.
Interestingly, the forecast for oil prices foresees an increase in 2024 but a decline in 2025, which is important for the economies of developing countries.
Conclusions.
Ukraine’s economic performance shows growth, but is accompanied by challenges, such as inflation and a foreign trade deficit. At the same time, the global economy faces risks, including inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions.
“Ukraine needs to create a favorable investment climate and strengthen its export capabilities to ensure long-term stability,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1028834.html
On November 15, 2024, the press center of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency hosted a press conference on “Social Responsibility Practices in Time of War” dedicated to the specifics of Ukrainian business during the war period. The event brought together representatives of leading companies and experts who shared their own cases, innovative practices and visions of the future.
Olena Plakhova, Director of Reputation Management and Marketing at Nova Poshta, emphasized that business in Ukraine is now performing much more than traditional functions and often takes on some of the responsibilities of the state.
“This happens not because of coercion, but because businesses realize their responsibility to society. It is important to rethink the social contract – we not only expect help from the state, but also actively engage in solving urgent problems. For example, the Humanitarian Mail of Ukraine program, which started in 2014, now supports more than 2,000 recipient foundations by providing free delivery of humanitarian aid,” she said.
“Not only did we quickly organize our work, but we also supported local communities and supplied military checkpoints. Our warehouse in Makariv was destroyed, but we found the resources to resume the supply of medicines. It was a unique experience when we had to negotiate logistics corridors and make decisions quickly. In the future, it is important for us to help the victims and participate in the restoration of medical infrastructure, as this is a key part of our mission,” said Yevheniia Piddubna, Corporate Communications Director, Farmak JSC.
In his turn, Oleksandr Sosis, beneficiary of Alliance Bank, noted that the war has changed the emphasis of the company’s social responsibility.
“Previously, our programs were mainly related to employee support, but now the focus has shifted to external initiatives. One example is our Good Deeds Forum, which has become a platform for supporting volunteers. Many of them have become leaders of public initiatives that are now working even more effectively than some government agencies,” he emphasized.
Sergiy Shevchenko, KSG Agro’s press service representative, spoke about the agricultural holding’s activities in the frontline region.
“We have adapted our operations to the war conditions, increased salaries for our employees and strengthened security at our facilities. One of the key areas was ensuring food safety: we increased the number of pigs at our complex in Kherson region from 500 to 20 thousand. This is an important contribution to the stability of the region and support for local communities,” said the farmer.
Maksym Urakin, Director of Development and Marketing at Interfax-Ukraine and founder of the Experts Club think tank, emphasized the importance of helping civilians and creating communication projects in times of war.
“Our project “Find Your Loved Ones” has become a lifesaver for many civilians who have lost contact with their families due to the war. We have combined the efforts of the media and volunteers to search for missing people and have achieved significant results. We also help volunteer initiatives by organizing press conferences, providing information support and supplying mobile hospitals for civilians,” he said.
According to the expert, the Ukrainian economy is showing significant growth despite the challenges.
“In the first nine months of 2024, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year. The results of the metallurgical sector are particularly impressive, as it increased production of steel and rolled products by 22-28% during this period. The agricultural sector also showed a significant increase due to the early harvest of late crops,” said Maxim Urakin.
According to him, Ukrainian business continues to adapt to the war by moving production to safer regions or even abroad.
“Medium-sized businesses are forced to actively migrate across Ukraine and integrate into the European economy – more than 200 companies have opened production facilities in the EU,” Urakin added.
But there are also negative trends. The expert emphasized the need to improve trust in government institutions, as according to an April survey by Active Group and Experts Club, 57% of citizens do not trust government agencies, and 62% do not trust law enforcement agencies.
The event also featured the presentation of the book Unbreakable Business by Oleksandr Holizdra and Serhiy Shevchenko, which tells unique stories about the resilience of Ukrainian companies during the war period. The publication has become a symbol of the entrepreneurial spirit that inspires us to move towards victory.
BANK_ALLIANCE, BUSINESS, EXPERTS CLUB, FARMAK, INTERFAX-UKRAINE, KSG_AGRO, PLAKHOVA, URAKIN, ГОЛІЗДРА, НОВА_ПОШТА, ПІДДУБНА, СОСІС
The current President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, won the second round of the presidential election held on November 3. According to preliminary data published on the website of the Central Election Commission, she received 55.41% of the vote, while her opponent, former Prosecutor General of Moldova Alexandru Stoianoglo, received 44.59% of the vote.
As of Monday morning, 99.86% of the voting protocols have been counted. Votes from three polling stations in the United States have not been counted.
According to these data, 1,679,293 Moldovan citizens took part in the elections, which is 54.31% of the voters on the voting lists. Sandu received 930,512 votes, while Stoianoglo received 748,781 votes.
Stoianoglo, who ran as a candidate of the opposition Socialist Party, conceded defeat on Sunday evening, thanking voters for their support.
At the same time, Sandu lost the election in Moldova, gaining 48.81% of the vote against Stoianoglo’s 51.19%. In the Gagauz autonomy, Stoianonglo (a Gagauz by nationality) won 97% of the vote, with almost 80% of the residents of the Transnistrian region who took part in the elections also voting for him. More than 26 thousand voters cast their ballots at 30 polling stations open to residents of the left bank of the Nistru River on the right bank.
Sandu won the election with a large margin thanks to the vote abroad. A total of 328,877 voters cast their ballots at 231 polling stations abroad, which is more than 20% of the total number of voters. This is an absolute record of participation in elections by Moldovan citizens abroad. Sandu received more than 270 thousand votes at polling stations abroad, almost 83% of those who voted.
Sandu pledged to “be a president for all”. She said this at a briefing on Monday night, when it became clear that she had won.
“Dear Moldovans, I am grateful to each of you who came to the polls. I heard your voice: those who supported me and those who voted for Mr. Stoianoglo. I pledge to be president for all of you. No one will lose in our choice of a decent future. We may hold different points of view, speak different languages, but we all want peace, understanding and a decent life for our children. This is my main goal for Moldova in the coming years. We need to unite the society,” Sandu said.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank presented an analytical material on the most important elections in the world in 2024, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=eGb95W02MgF6KzXU
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
