Global demand for steel in 2025 will remain at the previous year’s level — about 1.748 billion tons, after a 1.6% decline in 2024. These figures are given in the short-term forecast of the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) — Short Range Outlook (SRO).
In 2026, according to experts, demand will grow by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, driven by recovery in Europe, India, and the rapidly developing countries of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
According to Worldsteel’s forecast, in the CIS countries, including Ukraine, demand for steel will decline by 5.2% in 2025, to 56.1 million tons, and by another 1.7% in 2026, to 55.2 million tons.
At the same time, India will retain its status as the world’s fastest-growing steel market, with growth of around 9% annually in 2025-2026. Already next year, steel consumption in India will be almost 75 million tons higher than in 2020.
In developing countries (excluding China), demand for steel will increase by 3.4% in 2025 and by 4.7% in 2026, driven by active economic development in ASEAN countries, as well as in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
In Africa, steel consumption is growing by an average of 5.5% annually, reaching 41 million tons in 2025 — the highest level in the last decade. Growth is driven by investments in construction and improved macroeconomic indicators.
Andriy Ozeychuk, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Ukrainian Steel Construction Center and Director of Rauta, commented on the market situation and prospects for the Ukrainian steel sector.
“The Ukrainian steel market in 2025–2026 will be shaped by the recovery of domestic demand in construction and machine building, as well as the growth of exports of metal structures to the EU. We predict that demand for steel in Ukraine may grow by 6-8% in 2026 due to infrastructure and industrial recovery projects,” Ozeychuk said.
According to him, the steel construction sector will be the driver of this growth:
“The use of metal structures will accelerate the restoration of logistics, industrial, and infrastructure facilities.”
Ozeychuk also stressed that the launch of joint programs with European partners in the field of “green” metallurgy, where Ukraine already has its first pilot initiatives for the production of steel with a low carbon footprint, could give the industry an additional boost.
According to the forecast, demand for steel in the EU+UK region will increase by 1.3% in 2025 and by 3.2% in 2026. This reflects the impact of increased investment in infrastructure and defense amid lower inflation and improved household incomes.
In the US, Worldsteel expects steel consumption to increase by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026. The main drivers of growth will be government spending on infrastructure, a revival in housing construction, and private investment.
In China, steel demand will continue to decline, by approximately 2% in 2025, due to the prolonged downturn in the real estate market. In 2026, the rate of decline will slow to 1% as the construction sector is expected to bottom out.
Worldsteel warns that a more challenging global trade environment and financial pressure on local authorities could further limit infrastructure investment and reduce demand.
According to Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chief economist of the Spanish Steel Manufacturers Association (UNESID) and chairman of the Worldsteel Economic Committee, the organization is “cautiously optimistic” about the market outlook:
“Despite trade disputes and uncertainty, we believe that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and show moderate growth in 2026,” the expert said.
He added that this will be facilitated by the resilience of the global economy, growth in infrastructure investment, and easing financial conditions. At the same time, the sector continues to be pressured by high costs, trade barriers, and geopolitical risks.
Worldsteel’s forecast emphasizes that the decline in demand in China is offset by strong growth in India and developing countries, where a new center of global steel production is emerging.
In addition, the protective measures introduced by the European Union — reducing duty-free import quotas and increasing customs duties to 50% — may change the balance between EU producers and exporters from Asia and Eastern Europe.
For more information on the largest steel producers and global industry trends, see the Experts Club video analysis review available on YouTube: Experts Club — Leaders of the global steel industry 1990–2024
CHINA, EU, EXPERTS CLUB, global economy, INDIA, OZEYCHUK, RAUTA, USA, World Steel, WORLDSTEEL
According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in 2024 Ukraine ranked 9th in the world in wheat production, producing about 23.4 million tons of grain. This information is presented in a new study by Experts Club, based on FAOSTAT statistics and the video “Wheat Production by Country (1991–2024)”.
The top three wheat producers remain traditionally stable:
China — 136 million tons,
India — 113.9 million tons,
Russia — 81.6 million tons.
These three countries account for nearly half of global wheat production and play a crucial role in the world’s agricultural system.
They are followed by:
United States — 53.6 million tons,
France — 35.9 million tons,
Canada — 35.9 million tons,
Australia — 34.1 million tons,
Pakistan — 31.4 million tons,
Ukraine — 23.4 million tons,
Germany — 21.5 million tons.
The second ten producers are opened by Turkey (19 million tons) and Kazakhstan (18.6 million tons), with Italy (6.9 million tons) closing the list.
The Experts Club video analysis demonstrates significant structural changes in global wheat production over the past three decades. The video covers the period from 1991 to 2024. During this time, China and India have almost doubled their production thanks to increased yields and consistent government support for the agricultural sector.
Russia and Ukraine, after a sharp decline in the 1990s, made a remarkable recovery: in the early 1990s, Ukraine produced around 15 million tons, while by 2024 the volume had increased to 23–24 million tons — despite war-related risks and export restrictions.
Kazakhstan, traditionally focused on exports, has maintained its position, supplying grain to Central Asia and parts of China.
Despite military actions and damage to part of its infrastructure, Ukraine remains one of the world’s leading wheat exporters. The main factors behind this are high yields in southern and central regions, improved logistics through Danube ports, and export routes via Romania and Bulgaria.
According to FAO, in 2024 Ukraine exported about 17 million tons of wheat, keeping the country among the three largest global grain suppliers, along with Russia and the United States.
Experts from Experts Club note that growth in production across Asia and CIS countries compensates for declining yields in Europe and North America, which are affected by droughts and climate change. At the same time, Turkey, Iran, and Egypt are strengthening their roles as regional centers of processing and import.
Global markets expect wheat prices to stabilize within the range of 230–250 USD per ton, provided there are no new geopolitical shocks.
“Ukraine’s position in the TOP-10 global wheat producers is a testament to the resilience of its agricultural sector, even during wartime. With the expansion of domestic processing, Ukraine can reach 25–27 million tons of production in the coming years and strengthen its place among the world’s top five exporters.
At the same time, the grain market is becoming increasingly technology-driven: digitalization of agribusiness, precision farming, and climate-resilient wheat varieties will determine leadership in the next decade,” said Maksym Urakin, co-founder of the analytical center Experts Club.
Ukraine remains one of the few countries where the agricultural sector accounts for about 40% of foreign currency earnings. In 2024, wheat ranked second in export volume after corn, and revenues from grain sales exceeded 6 billion USD.
According to Experts Club forecasts, if the pace of infrastructure recovery continues and weather conditions remain favorable, Ukraine’s wheat production may reach 25 million tons in 2025, and exports could exceed 18 million tons.
The study was prepared by the analytical center Experts Club based on data from FAOSTAT, USDA, and IGC.
The video analysis “Wheat Production by Country 1991–2024” is available on the Experts Club Ukraine YouTube channel.
AGRICULTURE, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORT, FAO, GLOBAL PRODUCTION, UKRAINE, WHEAT
The spot price of gold hit a new record high on Monday. As of 9:34 a.m., it stands at $4068.74 per ounce, which is 1.3% higher than the previous session’s close. Earlier in trading, the spot price of gold rose to $4078.24 per ounce, marking an all-time high. Gold futures on the Comex exchange are up 2.2%, reaching $4087.4 per ounce.
The precious metal is supported by rising tensions between the United States and China, as well as expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the possibility of significantly increasing import tariffs on Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s tightened export controls on rare earth metals. He also said he saw no point in meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, on Sunday, Trump stated that Washington wants to help Beijing rather than harm it and suggested that he might still meet with Xi later this fall.
In addition, traders expect two more rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year. According to futures market pricing, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the U.S. central bank at its next meeting on October 28–29 is estimated at 95.7%. Investors in the derivatives market also expect another similar cut in December.
Earlier, the analytical center Experts Club released an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in a video on its YouTube channel — https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=9YBue5CS6dz-tA6_
The rapid growth in the price of gold continues on global markets: December futures prices on the Comex exchange rose to $3,965 per troy ounce on Monday
Against the backdrop of rising gold prices, other precious metals are also becoming more expensive.
Platinum added about 0.8%, rising to $1,085 per ounce, on expectations of reduced supply from South Africa.
Silver strengthened by 1.2%, reaching $32.7 per ounce, following the general increase in interest in precious metals.
According to experts, if political uncertainty in the US and the EU persists, gold could consolidate above the $4,000 mark, with silver and platinum continuing to rise moderately in its wake.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in its video on YouTube channel – https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=9YBue5CS6dz-tA6_
The price of gold continues to rise rapidly on global markets: December futures on the Comex exchange rose to $3,965 per troy ounce on Monday, a new historic high. Since the beginning of the year, gold has risen in price by almost one and a half times.
The main drivers of growth were increased demand for safe-haven assets and political instability in the US and Europe.
In Washington, federal agencies have been shut down for six days now, as Congress has been unable to approve a temporary budget. Against this backdrop, investors are pulling their money out of stocks and bonds and putting it into gold, which they see as a safer bet in times of crisis.
Adding to the nervousness is the political crisis in France: Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned after criticism of the composition of the new cabinet, causing another surge of volatility in European markets.
“We see both fundamental and situational factors for a further rally in gold. If current conditions persist, the price could reach $4,200 per ounce by the end of the year,” UBS analysts predict.
According to experts, if political uncertainty in the US and the EU persists, gold could consolidate above the $4,000 mark.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in its video on YouTube — https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=9YBue5CS6dz-tA6_
The Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine has completed the state certification of higher education institutions and scientific institutions in the fields of agricultural, veterinary, and social sciences using a new method of assessing scientific effectiveness, according to Vladimir Khaustov, an expert at the Experts Club information and analytical center and scientific secretary of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in a blog posted on the Interfax-Ukraine news agency website.
According to him, for the first time, not only institutions as a whole were evaluated, but also individual scientific departments — a step that should “truly support the strongest teams and stimulate real competition in Ukrainian science.”
“Without funding for science, there is no future. We are rich not because we have money, but because we fund science,” Khaustov recalled, quoting Ronald Reagan.
He noted that the new certification methodology “is not perfect, but necessary.” Among the positive changes, the expert mentioned the division by scientific fields and the attempt to introduce quantitative indicators. However, according to him, the consolidation of scientific groups (for example, combining all social sciences — economics, history, sociology — into one category) creates methodological distortions.
“The formula should take into account the specifics of the disciplines, and the weighting coefficients should be differentiated. Now, much of it has been reduced to arithmetic, which does not reflect the real contribution of scientists,” the expert emphasized.
Among the problems, Khaustov highlighted excessive bureaucracy in filling out reports and the lack of data automation:
“All indicators are entered manually, although publications and patents are already in the DNTB and UkrNOIVI databases. We proposed creating an automated system called ”Science of Ukraine,“ which would collect data itself, but so far everything is done manually.”
He also drew attention to the imbalance between the evaluation of domestic and foreign publications, as well as the underestimation of national grants and scientific achievements.
“Three hryvnia of Ukrainian funding is equivalent to one hryvnia of foreign funding. And seven out of eleven indicators relate to publications abroad. This distorts the real picture and devalues national achievements,” he said.
According to the expert, the methodology needs to be refined to take into account the specifics of the industry and the real working conditions of Ukrainian researchers.
“Science is not a formula or a table. It is people, ideas, and the future of the country,” concluded Volodymyr Khaustov.
The full version of the expert’s video is available on the Experts Club channel:
Experts Club is an independent platform for analytical videos and research. The center regularly publishes expert reviews on economics, science, and business, bringing together the opinions of leading analysts, scientists, and business representatives.
