Ukrainians have the most positive attitude toward Germany, the UK, Norway, and France, while Hungary, China, Iraq, and Serbia are among the countries with the worst ratings. This is evidenced by the results of a study conducted by Active Group and the Experts Club analytical center at the end of August.
“We conducted a representative survey of 800 respondents at the end of August, taking into account gender, age, and region of residence. The margin of error does not exceed 3.5%. This is not the first study of this type, but this time we selected 50 countries based on economic criteria – we asked about the countries with which Ukraine trades the most,” said sociologist and founder of Active Group Andriy Yeremenko at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Tuesday.
According to him, the study showed that public opinion is clearly divided between Western countries and countries outside the West.
“Ukrainians most often associate the achievement of peace with the European Union – 42% of respondents believe this. The United States is supported by almost 26% of respondents, and the United Kingdom by 13%. Other large countries, such as China, India, and Brazil, are not really considered to be contributing to a peaceful settlement in Ukraine,” Yeremenko emphasized.
Alexander Pozniy, director of the research company Active Group, added that in economic terms, Ukraine’s key partners are China, Poland, Germany, Turkey, and the United States.
“At the same time, attitudes toward them vary greatly. For example, more than 76% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude toward Germany, while only 12% have a positive attitude toward China, and 40% have a negative attitude. The case of Hungary is even more critical, with 16% having a positive attitude and 55% having a negative attitude,” he said.
Maksym Urakyn, founder of Experts Club and deputy director general of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, drew attention to economic imbalances in Ukraine’s trade with its leading partners.
“In the first half of 2025, Ukraine’s foreign trade deficit amounted to $18.5 billion, while in 2024 it was $12.4 billion. In other words, we have a significant deterioration. In particular, the negative balance exceeded $7 billion in trade with China alone, $2 billion with Germany, over $1 billion with Poland, and about $2 billion with the United States,” the expert emphasized.
He clarified that Ukraine remains a powerful exporter of agricultural products—grains, oilseeds, metals—while imports from the EU and China consist mainly of machinery, equipment, transport, electronics, and chemicals.
“This once again confirms the need for profound structural changes in the economy and diversification of foreign economic relations. We cannot continue to depend on a narrow circle of suppliers,” Urakin noted.
At the same time, according to the expert, sociological data demonstrate a certain paradox.
“The most economically advantageous partners for us are Egypt, Spain, Moldova, Algeria, Lebanon, and Iraq. But Ukrainians’ attitude toward most of these countries is neutral or even negative. This indicates that society forms its assessments not on the basis of economic benefits, but mainly on the basis of political statements or events,” he added.
Urakin concluded that this discrepancy between the economy and public opinion could have long-term consequences for Ukraine’s foreign policy.
“The representative offices of foreign countries that are Ukraine’s trading partners should pay more attention to working with Ukrainian society, holding cultural events, supporting humanitarian projects, and forming a positive image. Otherwise, we will continue to have a situation where the country is an important trading partner, but at the same time is perceived negatively by the majority of citizens,” emphasized the founder of Experts Club.
Learn more about the study
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/press-conference/1103619.html
ACTIVE GROUP, EXPERTS CLUB, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, Pozniy, PUBLIC OPINION, SOCIOLOGY, SURVEY, URAKIN, Єременко
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of April 2025.
The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE).
Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
The first four months of 2025 were marked by weak but still positive economic growth for Ukraine. According to the NBU’s estimates, real GDP grew by about +0.5% year-on-year, and the State Statistics Service’s preliminary calculations later revised the dynamics to about +0.9% year-on-year and approximately +0.7% quarter-on-quarter. In the context of full-scale war, constant threats to infrastructure and logistics, a shortage of long-term capital, and limited investment programs, this primarily means maintaining the functionality of the economic system.
“Half a percent or even a percent of growth is not about acceleration, but about endurance. We are seeing a revival of domestic demand in trade, logistics, and certain high-tech niches. But this is essentially a recovery “on the spot”: without a massive investment impulse, without an expansion of value-added exports, without accessible long-term resources, banks and businesses will not be able to scale up. We need to move from survival to development — through investment, industrial projects, and an export ecosystem,” emphasizes Maksim Urakin.
Inflationary pressure is slowly easing. Annual inflation in April was estimated at around 13.1% y/y after 14.6% in March; the National Bank kept its key rate at 15.5%, combining inflation targeting with currency market stabilization.
“Monetary policy in 2025 is about balance. If we tighten too much, we will stifle business activity and lending; if we loosen too much, we will get a new wave of inflation and pressure on the exchange rate. The NBU’s task is not simply to “hold” the rate, but to synchronize with fiscal policy, IMF programs, and the pace of external revenues so that every hryvnia of reserves works toward recovery rather than plugging operational holes,” the expert notes.
Foreign trade remains a weak link. In January–April 2025, exports of goods were estimated at about $13.31 billion, imports at about $24.82 billion, and the negative balance at about $11.51 billion. Structurally, imports are made up of energy carriers, equipment, transport, and chemicals, while exports continue to depend on raw materials and semi-finished products.
“This is not a situational but a structural deficit. As long as we import energy-intensive goods and technological components and export raw materials, the risk to the balance of payments will not disappear. The solution lies in creating production chains within the country, localizing components, advancing the development of logistics and port infrastructure, insuring military risks, and insuring export credits. We need a policy of export industrial transformation, not just “VAT refunds,” emphasizes Maksim Urakin.
International reserves remain a positive buffer, reaching a historic high of about $46.7 billion on May 1, 2025. The growth was ensured by inflows from partners and a reduction in net interventions by the NBU.
“Reserves of over $40 billion are a safety net, but they are not the country’s wealth. Reserves are a credit of trust that must be converted into industrial modernization. If we dissolve this resource in consumption and imports, it will run out, and structural problems will remain. If we direct it towards financing exports, investment insurance, infrastructure, and technology, we will get a multiplier and productivity growth,” the economist emphasizes.
The debt burden also remains high: the total public and guaranteed debt as of April 30, 2025, was estimated at about UAH 7.48 trillion (equivalent to almost $180 billion). This supports budget stability “here and now,” but makes coordination with international programs, debt restructuring, and the launch of projects that generate foreign exchange earnings critically important.
“Debt is not the enemy when it works for development. Our test of maturity is to convert debt resources into productive investments rather than consumption. We need transparent project pipelines: from feasibility studies to long-term money under state guarantees, from export insurance to industrial parks and clusters. This is the only way we will break the inertia of import dependence,” concludes the founder of Experts Club.
Global economy
At the start of the second quarter of 2025, the world is moving in a mode of moderate growth with increased uncertainty. In its April WEO, the IMF estimated global GDP growth in 2025 at around 2.8% with inflation slowly subsiding but uneven demand geography. In the US, real GDP in the first quarter, based on annualized methodology, declined by approximately 0.3% q/q due to “re-imports” and weaker government spending, while core PCE inflation in April remained at around 2.2% y/y, allowing the Fed to maintain a cautious stance.
China maintained around +5.3% y/y in the first quarter, but weakness in real estate and consumer caution limit the prospects for acceleration.
The eurozone, according to preliminary estimates at the end of April, added around +0.4% q/q (+1.2% y/y), and the EU around +0.3% q/q, showing the first signs of emerging from prolonged stagnation. The UK was a positive exception among the G7, with approximately +0.7% q/q in the first quarter. Turkey reported strong growth of around +7.4% y/y amid extremely high inflation of around 70% y/y in April, forcing the central bank to maintain a tight policy. India remains the leader among the major economies with around +7.4% y/y at the beginning of the year, with moderate CPI inflation of around 3.3% in April.
Brazil posted around +0.8% q/q (+2.6% y/y) in the first quarter, but IPCA inflation rose to around 5.5% y/y, limiting the scope for rapid policy easing.
The global picture is a mosaic of different speeds and different risks. The US is technically having a weak quarter, but domestic demand is still holding up; Europe is showing a smooth recovery without a breakthrough; China is on track for growth but needs a new model of domestic demand; India is the flagship of dynamism and innovation; Turkey has paid for its momentum with inflation; Latin America is balancing between regulation and stimulation. For Ukraine, it is not only the figures of its partners that are important, but also their policies: where they buy more steel and food, where they build logistics and energy infrastructure, where opportunities open up for suppliers of engineering products. Our task is to predict not past but future demand and occupy a niche before someone else does. This means export risk insurance, fast customs corridors, long-term money for modernization, cluster specialization, and, most importantly, discipline in execution. Without this, we will remain a country of imports and large reserves that are melting away. With this, we can become a country of exports and large projects that work,” summarizes Maksim Urakin.
Key conclusions
In summary, at the beginning of the second quarter, the Ukrainian economy is in a phase of sustained equilibrium: modest growth, slowing inflation, and record reserves are counterbalanced by a deep trade gap and high debt burden. The solution lies in accelerating structural changes: investment in industry and logistics, high value-added exports, coordination with international programs, and transforming debt resources into a driver of productivity. As Maksim Urakin emphasizes, “the window of opportunity for transformation is already open — the only question is whether we will be able to pass through it quickly enough.”
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1101077.html
Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to the country’s statistics agency. Analysts polled by Trading Economics had expected a more moderate decline of 0.6%. Compared to the previous quarter, Canadian GDP fell by 0.4%.
According to revised data, in the first quarter, the Canadian economy fell by 2% year-on-year but rose by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. Canadian exports fell by 7.5% in April-June, while imports fell by 1.3%.
Meanwhile, consumer spending rose by 1.1% and government spending by 1.8%.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center made a video analysis of the prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies. For more details, see the video — https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=F4IOLdLuVbYmEh5P
The Experts Club Information and Analytical Center analyzed updated data on Ukraine’s foreign trade volumes for the first half of 2025, published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The analysis is based on official customs statistics and covers 49 of Ukraine’s main trading partners from all continents. The study revealed key trends in foreign economic relations that demonstrate the depth of the country’s international integration.
China remains Ukraine’s largest trading partner, with a total trade volume of nearly US$9 billion. This is more than three times higher than the figures for any individual European country. Poland ranks second with a result of over US$6 billion, demonstrating its stable role as the main European hub for Ukrainian exports and imports. Germany ranks third with a volume of US$4.28 billion.
Turkey ($4.25 billion) and the US ($2.86 billion) also made it into the top five, reflecting the broad geography of Ukraine’s trade relations.
European countries traditionally play a leading role in Ukraine’s foreign trade. Among them, in addition to Poland and Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania are worth noting — all of them are among the top 10 partners. High indicators testify not only to the volume of trade, but also to the stability of logistics and production chains in the region.
This also confirms the gradual reformatting of Ukraine’s foreign trade orientation towards EU markets, particularly after the introduction of a duty-free regime, accession to the single customs space, and reorientation from traditional post-Soviet markets.
Among Asian countries, China remains the undisputed leader, retaining its strategic importance as a market for raw materials and a source of industrial imports. Turkey, although part of the Eurasian space, is actively strengthening its position in trade thanks to its flexible policy and developed logistics through the Black Sea.
Among other Asian players, the Republic of Korea, Japan, and India are notable for their presence, gradually increasing trade volumes with Ukraine, especially in the high-tech and pharmaceutical segments.
The United States remains Ukraine’s most important partner in the Western Hemisphere. Despite its geographical distance, the US is among the top five trading partners with a volume of over $2.85 billion. This testifies to deep economic interaction that complements political and defense partnerships.
Brazil and Mexico are also represented in the overall ranking, demonstrating growth in trade volumes, primarily in the agricultural and industrial goods segments.
They are increasingly appearing in Ukraine’s trade balance. In particular, Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya show stable demand for Ukrainian grain, metallurgical products, and machine-building products. At the same time, the potential of African markets for Ukrainian exports remains significant and can be realized under conditions of expanded logistics routes and political stability.
Top 10 trading partners of Ukraine in January–June 2025
No. Country Trade volume (USD million)
1 China 8,996
2 Poland 6,043
3 Germany 4,279
4 Turkey 4,249
5 United States 2,859
6 Italy 2,384
7 Czech Republic 1,641
8 Bulgaria 1,539
9 Hungary 1,526
10 Romania 1,499
“The latest foreign trade data demonstrate not only the geographical diversification of Ukraine’s partners, but also a clear focus on integration into the European and global markets. Despite the difficult security situation, Ukrainian business continues to expand into international economic chains, especially in the fields of agricultural products, metallurgy, and machine building. Significant growth in trade with EU countries and the US, as well as strong cooperation with China and Turkey, show that Ukraine has not lost its ability to be an active player in the global market,” says Maxim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and candidate of economic sciences.
Data for the first half of 2025 indicate that Ukraine’s foreign economic relations remain geographically diverse. The EU remains a reliable economic partner, China retains its position as the No. 1 global player, and North American and Asian countries are strengthening their roles. Africa is a promising direction that requires strategic attention.
Analyse, ANALYTICS, ECONOMICS, EXPERTS CLUB, Handel, TRADE, URACIN, URAKIN, WIRTSCHAFT
Ukraine’s foreign trade deficit in goods in January-June 2025 increased by 48.9% compared to the same period in 2024, to $18.512 billion from $12.430 billion, the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) reported on Thursday.
According to its data, exports of goods from Ukraine during the specified period compared to January-June 2024 decreased by 4.2% to $20.045 billion, while imports increased by 15.6% to $38.557 billion.
Gosstat specified that in June, compared to May of this year, seasonally adjusted export volumes decreased by 5.6% to $3.321 billion, while imports increased by 2.8% to $7.186 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in June 2025 was negative at $3.865 billion, while in the previous month it was also negative at $3.465 billion.
The export-to-import coverage ratio for the first six months of 2025 was 0.52 (in January-June 2024, it was 0.63).
The State Statistics Service specified that foreign trade operations were conducted with partners from 221 countries around the world.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center made a video analysis of the prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies. For more details, see the video — https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=F4IOLdLuVbYmEh5P
The eurozone economy grew by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous three months and by 1.4% year-on-year, according to revised data from the EU statistics office (Eurostat). The figures were in line with previous estimates and analysts’ expectations.
In January-March, the eurozone’s GDP grew faster, by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% year-on-year.
Ranking of eurozone countries by GDP growth in Q2 (quarter-on-quarter)
Overall, the EU economy grew by 0.2% in the second quarter and 1.5% year-on-year.
Among the largest economies in the eurozone, Germany and Italy showed a moderate decline, while France and Spain showed significant growth. The largest increase was recorded in Romania, and the largest decline was in Ireland.
This is the second estimate of the change in eurozone GDP out of three; Eurostat will present the final data on September 5.
Earlier, the information and analytical center Experts Club made a video analysis of the prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies. For more details, see the video — https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=F4IOLdLuVbYmEh5P
