The decline in the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year will slow down to 19% from 35% and 30.8%, respectively, in the fourth and third quarters of 2022, such is the forecast of the National Bank Ukraine has published the Inflation Report on its website.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded its forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 to 1% from 8%, which it expected in September last year, according to the updated Regional Economic Prospects published on Thursday.
Losses in annual GDP growth in 2023 will amount to 1.9 percentage points (p.p.), taking into account the positive effect of 0.5 p.p. due to the use of generators by businesses, and in 2024 losses will decrease to 0.6 p.p. thanks to the gradual recovery of the system, according to the baseline scenario of the macroeconomic forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in 2022 increased by 2.3 times compared to 2021 – to $11.125 billion from $4.771 billion, the State Statistics Service reported on Tuesday.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in January 2022 accelerated to 0.8% from 0.7% in December and November, which, however, is significantly lower than 2.5% in October and 1.9% in September. According to it, in January last year, inflation was 1.3%, so in annual terms, in January 2023, it decreased to 26% from 26.6%.
As of February 15, foreign aid accounted for 68.8% of the sources of financing the state budget deficit since the beginning of this year, Head of the Verkhovna Rada budget committee Roksolana Pidlasa told Interfax-Ukraine.
The majority of members of the monetary policy committee of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) at a meeting on January 25 noted that they consider the base key policy rate forecast to be realistic with it remaining at the level of up to 25% until at least the first quarter of 2024, the NBU website reported.
In January, Ukraine exported 25% less agricultural products through the grain corridor than in December due to the deliberate actions of Russian inspectors to delay vessels in the Bosphorus.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in January-September 2022 decreased by 56.5% compared to the same period in 2021, to UAH 66.3 billion, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
The fall in real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2022 is estimated at 30.4% [±2%], which is better than preliminary forecasts, the Economy Ministry said. After falling by about 30% in 2022, the Ukrainian economy may lose from zero to 5% this year if the hot phase of the war continues until the third quarter, but next year its growth will exceed 10%, founder and head of Dragon Capital investment company Tomas Fiala gave such a macro forecast.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will worsen the forecast estimate of real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2023 from 4% to 1-3.3%, while inflation by the end of the year will slow down growth to 19-21%, bankers polled by Interfax-Ukraine believe.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its forecast for the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 to 0.3% from 4% in the previous forecast, which is largely due to the extension of the base scenario with a full-scale war for another six months – until the beginning of 2024.
The Ministry of Economy confirms the forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 by 3.2%, despite the worsening of its forecast by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) from 4% to 0.3% this week, First Deputy Minister Denys Kudin has said.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2022 grew 2.3-fold compared to the same period in 2021, to $8.524 billion from $3.635 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
Inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 27.5% in December, but remained below the October forecast of the National Bank (30%), according to the macroeconomic and monetary review published by the NBU.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine in December 2022 remained at the level of November – 0.7% compared to 2.5% in October, 1.9% in September and 1.1% in August, returning to July level, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported.
State budget expenditures to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the form of the purchase of military equipment, weapons, ammunition, defense products, and personal protective equipment in December amounted to UAH 38 billion (11.5% of all expenditures) compared to 18.4 UAH billion in November (7%) and UAH 35.9 billion in October (16.1%).
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, the grain harvest in Ukraine in 2023 will be about 49.5 million tonnes, which is better than the estimate of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) at 46 million tonnes, First Deputy Minister Denys Kudin told.
PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
On February 23, the Ukrainian-Polish art project “War through the Prism of Art” was presented in Kiev at the press center of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
Art plays an important role in highlighting the horrors of the war and in overcoming its consequences, so the presentation of Ukrainian works in the European scientific and cultural space is very important, said Professor of Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, Honorary Restorer of Ukraine Yulia Ivashko.
“In March, a conference will be held at the University of Lodz where the role of the artist and art in covering the war in Ukraine and its post-war reconstruction will be discussed. In addition, exhibitions of works by Ukrainian photographer and defender Sergey Belinsky have already been held in the Czech Opava and Ostrava, and in the near future an exhibition will open in Polish Poznan,” Iwashko said at a press conference in the Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Thursday.
According to her, the tragedy of the war in Ukraine forced everyone to reconsider their system of values.
“Now we Ukrainians are changing the world, and in such projects it is very important to feel a sense of elbow of our European friends, so to speak,” she stressed.
The head of the press service of the 28th separate mechanized brigade of the AFU named after the Knights of the Winter Campaign Sergey Belinsky, who is the author of the works presented at the exhibition, thanked Polish colleagues for their support and stressed that the art project was started since the first days of the war and gradually became not only artistic, but also scientific.
“This is not only an exhibition of photographic works, but also a record of the devastation in the south of our country. In addition to the photo exhibition itself, we have already published two books with photos, descriptions and stories,” said S. Belinsky.
Head of the press service of the 28th separate mechanized brigade of the AFU named after the Knights of the Winter Campaign Sergey Bilinsky, who is the author of the works presented at the exhibition, thanked Polish colleagues for their support and stressed that the art project was started since the first days of the war and gradually became not only artistic, but also scientific.
“This is not only an exhibition of photographic works, but also a record of the devastation in the south of our country. In addition to the photo exhibition itself, we have already published two books with photos, descriptions and stories,” said S. Bilinsky.
According to Anastasia Urakina, an architect and young scholar, a graduate student at the Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, war and the risks associated with it can lead to various psychological traumas, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and others. That is why the art project “War through the prism of art” together with the Kyiv think tank “Experts Club” are conducting a course of psychological rehabilitation and art therapy for people of all walks of life – children, disabled people, the elderly and others.
“The groups will be led by professional psychologists and artists, and the classes will be held at the Kyiv-based think tank Experts Club. There will also be art therapy classes and exhibitions of works by Ukrainian artists,” emphasized Urakina.
ART, ART_THERAPY, BELINSKY, EXPERTS CLUB, KNUBA, UNIVERSITY OF LODZ, ІВАШКО, ПАВЛОВСЬКА, УРАКІНА
Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 will amount to 3.4% instead of 4.1% expected in April, and economic growth in 2022 is projected at 3.6% instead of 3.7%, such a consensus forecast was posted by the Ministry of Economy on its website.
The direct public debt of Ukraine by the end of 2021 will be cut to 56.9% of GDP, and by 2024 to 47%, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said, presenting a strategy for managing public debt until 2030 at a government meeting on Thursday.
The ICU Group has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 2.9% from 5.2% in the spring forecast, Head of ICU Macroeconomic Research Vitaliy Vavryschuk has said.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 2.7% compared to the same period in 2020, the State Statistics Service reported such an updated estimate, while earlier it estimated growth in mid-November at 2.4%.
Alfa Bank (Kyiv) expects real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2022 by 3.4% after its projected growth of 3% over 2021 and a slowdown in the average annual inflation in 2022 to 8.6%, which is 0. 8 percentage points below the expected average annual inflation rate in 2021 (9.4%). Oxford Economics has worsened expectations of real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2022 to 2.8% compared to 3.4% in the November forecast, by the end of 2021 it expects the country’s economy to grow by 3.1% of GDP, as follows from materials of the December forecast, which are available to Interfax-Ukraine.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-October 2021 decreased by 27.7% compared to January-October 2020 – to $2.565 billion from $3.547 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine on an annual basis in November 2021 slowed to 10.3% from 10.9% in October and from 11% in September.
The total public debt of Ukraine in November increased by 1.64% in US dollars and amounted to $94.15 billion, as well as by 4.92% in hryvnia – to UAH 2.558 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance, published on Wednesday.
Industrial production in Ukraine in November 2021 increased by 0.4% versus November 2020, which is worse than an increase of 1.4% in October, but better than a decline of 0.7% in September, the State Statistics Service said.
Real wages in Ukraine increased by 8% in November 2021 year-over-year, and compared to October of this year, the growth was 0.9%.
Ukraine in 2021 has a record harvest of grain, legumes and oilseeds of 106 million tonnes: cereals and legumes – 84 million tonnes and oilseeds – 22.6 million tonnes, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Roman Leschenko said on Facebook. Ukraine since the beginning of the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of December 29 had exported 31.57 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 21.1% more than the indicators for the same date of the previous MY.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in November 2021 decreased by 2.7% compared to November 2020.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin.
Previously Experts Business Club created a video summary dedicated to macroeconomics. Full video watch here
The Experts Club continues a series of programs dedicated to the macroeconomics of Ukraine. The new issue analyzes the preliminary results of 2021.
“We create such analytical videos in order to increase the level of knowledge of the population in the field of economics and for easy visualization of a huge number of figures. Such content, of course, is not a “mass market,” but we do not strive for it either. We focus on a thinking and searching audience,” founder of the Experts Club project Maksim Urakin said.
The issue analyzes the change in the number of the population of Ukraine, the current unemployment rates, presents the labor market in the regional context. In addition, GDP indicators are given, the main trade partners of the country are named, trends and plans for the payment of Ukraine’s internal and external debt, as well as indicators of retail and inflation, are analyzed.
The video contains a large number of author’s charts, histograms, which conveniently illustrate the main macroeconomic trends.
The Experts Club is dedicated to political science, economics, science, futurology, contains expert opinions and analysis of the topics discussed.
This video is available for viewing at the link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUs6fF–F-c
You can subscribe to the channel at the Experts Club – YouTube link
On December 30, 2021, as a result of the annual work of Ukrainian winemakers and relevant associations, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine held the ” Great Tasting of Ukrainian Wines.”
Event organizers:
– Ukrsadvinprom public union
– the Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers (http://www.sommelier.in.ua/spip.php?rubrique28)
– the Association of Craft Wine Producers
– the Association of Cavistes of Ukraine
– the Experts Club
The purpose of the event: popularization of wines of Ukraine by presenting the range of sparkling and still wines, both from well-known large producers and from small (craft) winemakers.
The presentation was attended by:
– Roman Leschenko – Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine
-Volodymyr Pechko- head of Ukrsadvinprom
– Natalia Blahopoluchna – President of the Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers and the Association of Cavistes of Ukraine
-Svitlana Tsybak – President of the Association of Craft Wine Producers of Ukraine
– Heads and representatives of the departments of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy
– Representatives of wine producers and specialized organizations
20 producers presented their wines for tasting:
• Prince Trubetskoi Winery
• Oreanda
• Villa Krim
• Koblevo
• Chizay
• Beykush Winery
• Guliev Wines
• Frumushika-Nova
• Driukivski Wines
• Babchuk Winery
• Narovylo
• Gigineishvili Wine House
• Villa Tinta
• Sadyba Sterkh
• Slivino
• Bohdan’s Winery
• Grapes Odesa
• Don Alejandro
• Kalyus Winery
• Stakhovsky Winery
The presented samples (there were more than 50 of them) were from different grape varieties, such as the international group of varieties – Chardonnay, Riesling, Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinot Noir, and local grape varieties – Sukholymansky, Chersegi, Saperavi, Odesa Black.
Brut category sparkling wines (white and rosé) were in the aperitif part of the presentation, and then white, rosé, orange and red dry wines from different regions of Ukraine amazed everyone with their quality, namely, from Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zakarpattia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Khmelnytsky, Vinnytsia.
In his welcoming speech, Minister of Agrarian Policy Roman Leschenko stressed the importance of abolishing the excise tax on dry wines from January 1, 2022, which will promote domestic wines and facilitate the work of winemakers, and thanked everyone for organizing such an important event and congratulated the audience on the coming year 2022!
Let’s go to the New Year with Ukrainian wine!
Interfax-Ukraine News Agency is an information partner of this event and other events of Ukrsadvinprom.
Special partner of the event – company Sophienwald, hand-made glasses from Austria.
BLAHOPOLUCHNA, CAVISTE, EXPERTS CLUB, LESCHENKO ROMAN, SOMMELIER, TASTING, TSYBAK, UKRSADVINPROM, URAKIN, ПЕЧКО
