In March, Ukraine increased electricity exports by 131% to 76.3 thousand MWh, while imports increased by 11% to 272.3 thousand MWh, Ukrainian energy and climate think tank DiXi Group reported citing Energy map.
According to its information, half of electricity exports went to Hungary – 38.1 thousand MWh. Another 17.8 thousand MWh, which amounted to 23% of total exports, went to Moldova, 11.1 thousand MWh (15%) to Romania, 8.4 thousand MWh (11%) to Slovakia, and 1 thousand MWh (1%) to Poland.
At the same time, it is noted that compared to March-2024, exports fell by half – then it amounted to 154.1 thousand MWh.
According to DiXi Group experts, out of 272.3 thousand MWh of imports, the largest share came from Hungary – 113.8 thousand MWh (42%). Another 52.7 thousand MWh (19%) came from Slovakia, 48.1 thousand MWh (18%) from Poland, 44.6 thousand MWh (16%) from Romania, and 13.2 thousand MWh (5%) from Moldova.
Compared to March 2014, when imports amounted to 168.3 thousand MWh, its figures in March 2015 increased by 1.6 times.
The increase in purchases was recorded from almost all available directions (from 4% to 480%), except for Slovakia – the volume of imports from this country decreased by 28%.
In total, in March, the volume of imports was almost 4 times higher than exports, DiXi Group notes.
As reported, in February 2025, Ukraine increased electricity imports by 33% to 244.2 thousand MWh compared to January and reduced exports by 61% to 33.1 thousand MWh.
As of April 4, Ukraine exported 33.017 mln tonnes of grains and pulses since the beginning of the 2024-2025 marketing year, of which 232 thsd tonnes were shipped this month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported citing the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of April 5 last year, the total shipments amounted to 36.028 mln tonnes.
In terms of crops, since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has exported 13.254 million tons of wheat (141 thousand tons in April), 2.206 million tons of barley (0), 10.8 thousand tons of rye (0), and 17.061 million tons of corn (90 thousand tons).
The total export of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of April 4 is estimated at 54.1 thsd tonnes (in April – 0.7 thsd tonnes), including 50.2 thsd tonnes of wheat (0.6 thsd tonnes).
In March 2025, Ukraine exported goods worth $3.62 billion, which is 4.5% more than in March last year ($3.46 billion) and 18% more than in February this year, Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka said.
“Despite the decline in exports in the first two months of the year, we managed to achieve positive dynamics in March. A significant increase in exports in March compared to February this year was made possible by an increase in the supply of agricultural products, iron ore and metallurgical products,” the press service of the Ministry of Economy quoted him as saying on its website on Tuesday.
According to preliminary data, in the first quarter of 2025, exports of goods reached almost $9.9 billion, the Ministry noted, while last year it exceeded $10 billion. The Ministry’s release does not provide information on imports of goods in March and their dynamics.
“Despite the decline in the physical weight of Ukrainian exports, their monetary value is increasing. In March last year, we exported almost 11.9 million tons, and in March this year – 9.98 million tons. Thus, the share of goods with higher added value is gradually increasing, which means that the Ukrainian processing industry is successfully overcoming obstacles in its development as a result of the war and entering foreign markets,” Kachka emphasized.
He clarified that compared to February of this year, the physical volume of exports in March increased by 15.9%.
According to the trade representative, exports of cast iron in March this year increased by more than 13.4 times (by $110 million) compared to February, sunflower seeds – by 11.5 times (by $15.9 million), oil cake – by 80.3% (by $35.8 million), sunflower oil – by 39.2% (by $141.6 million).
Kachka added that in March, exports by sea increased by 24.7% in monetary terms and 17% in weight compared to February this year, while exports by rail increased by 16.8% in monetary terms and 15.1% in weight.
According to the Ministry of Economy, in March Ukraine exported the following by value: corn ($514.4 million or 2.4 million tons); sunflower, safflower, or cottonseed oil ($503 million or 441 thousand tons); wheat ($25.5 million or 1.2 million tons). t); wheat ($253.9 million or 1.1 million tons); iron ore and concentrates ($238.4 million or 2.9 million tons); soybeans ($150.2 million or 369.2 thousand tons); insulated wires ($124.6 million or 6.5 thousand tons) and pig iron ($118.9 million or 300.9 thousand tons).
Ukrainian producers exported most of their goods to Poland ($407.7 million), Turkey ($294.3 million), Italy ($231.8 million), Germany ($196.3 million), China ($189.4 million), and Spain ($185.7 million).
The European Union remains Ukraine’s key trading partner. In March, Ukraine exported $2.04 billion worth of goods to the EU, or 6.1% more than in February.
In March, Ukraine exported 1.1 million tons of wheat, which is one of the highest monthly figures of the current season, in April, the volume of supplies may be slightly lower, but still remain at a high level, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
“For April, 850 thousand tons of wheat have already been contracted, and the total monthly exports may reach 1 million tons. Despite the general stagnation of demand in the European market, Ukrainian grain is finding its buyers, particularly in Egypt,” analysts said.
However, according to experts, the situation is less optimistic from the price point of view. The main export destinations for Ukrainian wheat – Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands – remain passive in terms of new purchases, and the reintroduction of duties on Ukrainian grain to the EU in June may further complicate access to the European market.
“There is no positive news for the wheat price so far. The stock market has been sinking in recent weeks, and we see a serious gap between the physical market and stock exchange quotes. While the FOB price in Ukraine is currently $60 per ton higher than in Chicago, by June-July the markets usually synchronize. This means that the Ukrainian physical price may sink, especially as the new harvest approaches,” Pusk commented.
According to analysts, the conditional average price for wheat of the 2nd class of the new harvest for July is forecasted at $190-200 per ton on a CPT-port basis, while currently this figure is fixed at $210-215. The potential decline could be up to $20 per ton.
“If you have the opportunity, you should not rush to sell. Historically, in July-August, the market is saturated with wheat from all major exporting countries – Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and the US – and even with a deficit balance, the price usually falls. At the same time, the seasonal model shows that from October to December, the price may rise to $220-235 per ton on a CPT-port basis. Therefore, if the financial cushion allows, it is worth considering postponing sales,” the analysts added.
They stated that flour mills are currently offering the best prices on the domestic market – 10500-11000 UAH/ton for 2-3 grade wheat.
“Given the sluggish export demand, this may be a more profitable solution for farmers,” Pusk believes.
In March 2025, Ukraine exported 5.4 million tons of agricultural products, which is 9.8% more than the same indicator of the previous month, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).
All groups of goods showed growth compared to the previous month, but the largest increase was in oilseed processing products, namely oilcake and oil, whose exports increased by 42% and 29%, respectively, analysts said.
According to their information, in February 2025, the structure of agricultural exports was dominated by cereals, which were supplied to foreign markets in the amount of 3.6 mln tons, which is 5% more than a month earlier. At the same time, corn accounted for 66% of exports, wheat – 31%, and barley – 2%.
At the same time, in March 2025, the export volumes of oilseeds increased by 4% to 433.6 thsd tonnes (soybean – 85%, rapeseed – 7% and sunflower – 6%), and by 29% of vegetable oils – to 495.6 thsd tonnes. tons (sunflower oil – 89% and soybean oil – 11%), by 11% of cake after extraction of vegetable oils – to 493.5 thousand tons (sunflower oil – 70%, soybean oil – 30%), by 11% of other agricultural products – to 363.2 thousand tons.
The total volume of foreign trade in dairy products in February 2025 amounted to $45.6 million, which is 8.5% more than in January 2025 ($42.0 million) and 16.4% lower than in December 2024 ($54.5 million), according to the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEP).
According to the report, dairy exports in February 2025 amounted to $24.2 million and increased by 25% compared to January 2025 ($19.3 million) and by 51% compared to December 2024 ($16.0 million).
“Such significant export volumes have not been recorded since October-2022,” the analysts emphasized.
According to them, the value structure of exports was formed as follows: 36% milk and condensed cream, 30% butter, 20% cheese.
At the same time, in February 2025, compared to February 2024, the value structure of exports changed slightly: the share of butter and milk fats increased (from 13% to 30%), while the share of cheeses of all kinds decreased (from 28% to 20%) and milk and cream not condensed (from 10% to 6%).
At the same time, imports continued to decline and became the lowest in the last six months: in February 2025, they amounted to $21.4 million, which is 6% lower than in January 2025 ($22.7 million) and 44% lower than in December 2024 ($38.5 million).
In addition, in February 2025, compared to February 2024, there were changes in the value structure of imports: the share of cheese increased (from 68.2% to 83.4%) against a significant decrease in the share of butter (from 16.5% to 2.4%). The share of cheese (83.4%) reached its highest level in recent years.
The balance of exports and imports in February 2025 was positive: $2.8 million, compared to -$3.4 million in January 2025 and -$22.6 million in December 2014.
In February 2025, exports in value terms exceeded imports by 13% (in January 2025 – 0.85 times, in December 2024 – 0.41 times).
