Structure of export of services in Ukraine in 2019 (graphically)
The situation with coronavirus should not considerably influence the Ukrainian grain export, as the demand for agricultural products depends on number of the population, which is growing, and it is less elastic than the demand for fuel, consumer goods or tourism services, acting Director General of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) Serhiy Ivaschenko has said.
According to him, since the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in China, Ukraine has not yet felt on its part the decline in demand for cereals.
“However, it should be remembered that certain logistic restrictions, such as a ban on entering ports for ships that visited regions where coronavirus disease is detected, or credit restrictions due to the collapse of economies, can negatively affect international trade,” he told Interfax-Ukraine.
Ivaschenko said that such physical and financial limits could well have a negative impact on the dynamics of Ukrainian agricultural exports.
“At present, oil and fuel producers are experiencing a drop in demand and prices amid expectations of a decrease in transportation. A slowdown in a large economy such as China will certainly have a negative impact on other economies. If effective methods of combating coronavirus are not found in the near future, then the consequences for all the economies of the world will be very negative – an economic crisis may begin,” he said.
At the same time, the expert added that a drop in international trade will lead to an increase in product stocks and lower prices for it in the domestic market of Ukraine, as well as a drop in export revenue and national budget revenues.
The enterprises of Ukroboronprom concern exported $908 million worth of arms and services abroad in 2019, which is 19% more than a year earlier, said Aivaras Abromavicius, the head of the Ukroboronprom state concern. “Last year, our companies exported arms and services worth $908 million. This is a 19% increase over the previous year,” the head of the concern said on the Real Politics program on Ukraine 24 TV channel on Sunday.
Abromavicius added that Ukraine is not one of the ten largest arms exporters, while U.S. and Russian exports are ten times greater than domestic, but assured that Ukroboronprom’s foreign supply will also increase in 2020.
“We see that in 2020 export growth is planned to reach 30%. And this is a very important figure, especially in anticipation of a slowdown in industrial production growth, which is taking place not only in our country, but throughout the world,” said the head of Ukroboronprom.
Main trade partners of Ukraine in % from total volume (export from Ukraine to other countries) in Jan-Nov 2019
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in February revised upwards the forecast for export of corn from Ukraine in the 2019/2020 agricultural year (July-June) by 0.5 million tonnes compared with the January forecast, to 31 million tonnes, and the corn harvest – by 0.3 million tonnes, to 35.8 million tonnes.
According to the February report posted on the USDA website, the forecast for production and export of Ukrainian wheat remained at the January level – 29 million tonnes and 20.5 million tonnes respectively.
USDA in February did not change the forecast for production and export of Ukrainian barley leaving it at 9.5 million tonnes and 5 million tonnes respectively.
In general, grain forecast for the 2019/2020a agri-year was revised upwards by 0.39 million tonnes, to 75.43 million tonnes and exports – by 0.53 million tonnes, to 56.6 million tonnes.
Ukraine since the beginning of the marketing year 2019/2020 (MY, July-June) and as of January 27, 2020 had exported 35.03 million tonnes of grain and legumes, which is 28.8% more than on the same date last MY.
According to the information and analytical portal of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine, to date, the country has exported 15.61 million tonnes of wheat, 15.11 million tonnes of corn, and 3.85 million tonnes of barley.
As of January 27 this year, 216,300 tonnes of flour has been also exported.
As reported, Ukraine in the 2018/2019 MY exported a record 50.4 million tonnes of grain, legumes and flour, which is 23% more than in the previous MY.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in January raised its forecast for grain exports for the 2019/2020 MY by 1.2 million tonnes compared with the October forecast, to 56.14 million tonnes due to indicators for corn and wheat.
