Export of agricultural products from Ukraine in the context of the Russian military invasion could reach 5 million tons per month due to increased shipments through the unblocked Black Sea ports, but an estimate of 3.5-4.5 million tons per month looks more realistic.
As reported on the website of the consulting agency Ukragroconsult on Monday, the current 2022/23 marketing year (MY, July-June) will be non-standard due to the absence of traditional seasonal export peaks that occur as the harvest progresses.
“If you look at monthly exports from the beginning of 2018/19 MY, then seasonality is clearly visible. Conventionally, Ukrainian grain exports can be divided into three stages (waves): the wheat-barley wave (begins in July-August), the first corn wave (begins in September-August). October) and the second corn wave (begins in February-March, when the supply of corn from South America disappears from the world market),” the agency said in a statement.
According to him, there will be no significant export peaks this season due to significant leftovers from last season’s harvest ready for export, but a gradual increase in shipments will be noticeable as the work of seaports normalizes.
“Current shipments from Odessa ports are still undergoing a test period, market participants are still evaluating further prospects, so it is too early to say with confidence that Ukraine will be able to fully realize its grain export potential, but exports in August may already show a significant increase,” explains ” Ukragroconsult”.
As reported, since the beginning of 2022/2023 MY, Ukraine has exported 2.98 million tons of grain crops, including 1.94 million tons of corn (65% of the total supply), 783 thousand tons of wheat (26%) and 257 thousand tons of barley (8.8%).
In addition, in July 2022, Ukraine exported 2.66 million tons of grain and oilseeds and agricultural products for export by all modes of transport, which is 22.7% more than in June.
Since the beginning of the 2022/2023 marketing year (MR, July-June), Ukraine has exported 2.98 million tons of grain crops, including 1.94 million tons of corn (65% of the total supply), 783 thousand tons of wheat ( 26%) and 257 thousand tons of barley (8.8%).
As reported on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on Friday, the pace of grain exports since the beginning of the current financial year was 2.06 times lower than the indicators of the same period last year (from July 1 to August 19, 2021, 6.12 million tons were exported) .
At the same time, according to the agency, for the period of August 11-19, 770 thousand tons of grain crops were delivered to foreign markets (96.2 thousand tons per day), while in the previous period of August 5-11 – 340 thousand tons of grain crops ( 48.6 thousand tons per day), for July 27-August 5 – 640 thousand tons of grain crops (71.1 thousand tons per day), and for July 15-27 – 627 thousand tons of grain crops (52.25 thousand tons per day). Thus, the average daily rate of export for the reporting period doubled compared to the previous period and reached the maximum value since the beginning of the MR.
For comparison, in eight days (August 11-19), the country supplied the volume of grain crops to foreign markets, similar to the volume of 28 days in April (April 1-28, 2022), when their export amounted to 763,000 tons. This is due to the effect of the Istanbul grain agreements, which opened the export of agricultural crops from three Ukrainian seaports – only on August 1-15, they sent 21 dry cargo ships with 563 thousand tons of agricultural products to foreign markets.
In general, from the beginning of the 2022/2023 FY and until August 19, 2022, Ukraine exported 783 thousand tons of wheat (3.7 times less compared to the same date of the 2021/2022 FY), 257 thousand tons of barley (eight times less) and 7.4 thousand tons of flour (2.55 times less). However, the rate of corn export exceeded last year’s volumes – 1.94 million tons of corn were exported, which is 67.8% more than the indicators of the 2021/2022 financial year.
As reported, in 2021/2022, Ukraine exported 48.51 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, which is 8.4% higher than the indicators of the previous MR, despite the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation and difficulties in exporting agricultural products due to the blockade of Ukrainian seaports. 18.74 million tons of wheat (12.6% more than the indicators of 2020/2021 MR), 23.54 million tons of corn (+1.9%), 5.75 million tons of barley (+35.9%) were delivered to foreign markets ), 70.9 thousand tons of flour (-44.1%).
In 2020/2021, the country exported 44.72 million tons of cereals and legumes: 16.64 million tons of wheat, 23.08 million tons of corn, 4.23 million tons of barley, 126.9 thousand tons of flour and 18.4 thousand tons of flour tons of rye.
In 2019/2020, the Republic of Ukraine exported 56.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that the implementation of the grain initiative to export Ukrainian grain made it possible to reduce the severity of the food crisis.
“It is very important that the grain export initiative yields results. Since the beginning of its implementation, 16 vessels with grain for seven countries on three continents have already left Ukrainian ports. This is Europe, Asia, Africa,” he said in a traditional video message on Saturday.
According to him, “almost half a million tons of agricultural products are on board: corn, wheat, sunflower oil, soybeans and other goods that are absolutely necessary on the world market.”
“This has already made it possible to reduce the acuteness of the food crisis, gave some hope for peace to the countries that consume our agricultural products. And in the future, it can help to completely remove the food crisis from the global agenda,” he said.
Of course, the president noted, “if the partners ensure the implementation of the safe part of the initiative and prevent Russian provocations and terror at sea or against our ports.”
Zelensky noted that “the first ship has already arrived for loading under the UN World Food Program – this is the supply of grain, in particular, for Ethiopia, where the situation with hunger is especially severe. Now the vessel is being prepared for departure from the Yuzhny port.
According to him, “in less than two weeks, our three ports – Odessa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny – managed to export such a volume that is equal to all agricultural exports by road in July and more than two-thirds of exports by rail over the past month” .
“These are jobs for our people, these are the funds that are needed for our sowing next year, and this is our state budget revenues. Increasing economic activity is an indispensable element on the path to victory,” the president said.
The international research company Corteva Agriscience has established export supply chains for corn seeds from Ukraine to the EU, and in the context of the Russian military invasion plans to increase its exports to European countries by 16 times by the end of the year compared to last year.
According to a press release from the company, as of early August, it has already shipped 3,000 tonnes of corn seeds grown at its seed complex in Poltava region to the European Union.
The company clarified that, for security reasons, it suspended the operation of the seed plant immediately after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but at the initiative of the employees themselves, after some time, resumed the operation of the enterprise. The launch of its work made it possible to provide Ukrainian farmers with seed material that is critical for the sowing campaign.
Corteva, in the context of Russian aggression, also for security reasons, refused to supply seeds of Ukrainian production by land to the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia, but expanded logistics to the EU as much as possible.
“On the production lines of the Corteva plant in Ukraine, high standards of seed production have been introduced, which allow us to produce goods that meet all the quality criteria adopted in the EU. Seeds are controlled by many indicators at all stages of production – from field to bag, and meet the maximum requirements of both Ukrainian, and foreign farmers choosing Corteva genetics,” the company said.
Earlier, in April, the company decided to leave the Russian market due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
Corteva Agriscience is a global agricultural company. It offers farmers comprehensive solutions to maximize yields and profitability. It has more than 150 research facilities and more than 65 active ingredients in the portfolio.
Foreign trade turnover by the most important positions in Jan-May 2022 (export)
SSC of Ukraine
Production of sunflower seeds in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, September-August) is projected at 9.4 million tonnes, which is 42.6% less than the previous MY (16.4 million tonnes), while their exports will decrease by approximately 41.2%, to 1 million tonnes from 1.7 million tonnes.
Such data were announced by Stepan Kapshuk, Director General of the Ukroliyaprom Association, during the online conference “Ukrainian oilseed market: optimistic or pessimistic forecast” on Thursday.
Thus, this MY is expected to reduce production of sunflower seeds to the lowest value in ten years, which is even lower than in 2013/2014 MY with 11.5 million tonnes. This decrease is caused by the Russian military invasion into Ukraine, the temporary occupation of part of its territory, and logistical problems associated with Russian aggression.
The head of the association stressed that in 2022/2023 MY, oilseed exports are expected to decrease by 10.6%, to 5.1 million tonnes from 5.71 million tonnes in 2021/2022 MY, including sunflower seeds 41.2%, to 1 million tonnes, and rapeseed by 4%, to 2.6 million tonnes from 2.71 million tonnes. However, soybean exports are expected to grow by 15.3%, to 1.5 million tonnes from 1.3 million tonnes in 2021/2022 MY.
According to Kapshuk, in general, in 2022/2023 MY, production of oilseeds in Ukraine is projected at the level of 14.86 million tonnes, of which, in addition to indicated 9.4 million tonnes of sunflower seeds, 2.87 million tonnes account for rapeseed, and 2.59 million tonnes for soybeans.
At the same time, it is expected that in Ukraine 95.7% of produced sunflower seeds – 9.0 million tonnes, 38% of soybeans – 1 million tonnes, and 7% of rapeseed – 200,000 tonnes will be processed in 2022/2023 MY.
According to the Director General of Ukroliyaprom, in 2022/2023 MY, Ukraine will produce 4.0 million tonnes of sunflower oil, while 4.2 million tonnes will be exported, of which part will be sent from transitional stocks left over from the previous period. These figures are lower than those of MY 2021/2022 with 5.2 million tonnes of oil produced and 4.3 million tonnes of exports, and are comparable to the indicators of MY 2013/2014 (production – 4.6 million tonnes, export – 4.19 million tonnnes).
