The eurozone’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 0.1% compared to the previous three months, according to a report by the European Union’s statistical office, which presented revised data. Previously, it was reported that GDP remained unchanged. Experts on average expected the previous estimate to be confirmed, according to Trading Economics.
In annual terms, the eurozone economy grew by 0.9%, the fastest pace since the beginning of 2023. The dynamics of this indicator coincided with the previous estimate and the consensus forecast of analysts.
In the third quarter, eurozone GDP increased by 0.4% compared to the previous three months and by 0.9% in annual terms.
In October-December, Germany’s economy declined by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, France’s by 0.1%, Spain’s by 0.8%, and Italy’s GDP remained unchanged.
In annual terms, Germany’s GDP also decreased by 0.2%, France’s by 0.7%, Spain’s by 3.5%, and Italy’s by 0.5%.
In the fourth quarter, the EU economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous three months and by 1.1% in annual terms.
This is the second estimate of GDP dynamics for the fourth quarter out of three. The third estimate will be published on March 7. According to preliminary data, in 2024, the euro area’s GDP grew by 0.7%, and the EU’s by 0.9%.
Experts Club Analytical Center and Maksim Urakin released earlier video analysis about the economy of Ukraine and the world – https://youtu.be/LT0sE3ymMnQ?si=b_tVU8Zeg_-xZVEo.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/vvp-yevrozony-v-iv-kvartali-zris-na-01/
Ukraine’s total public debt in 2024 rose to a new all-time high: by $22.74 billion, or 14.3%, to $166.06 billion in dollar terms, and by UAH 1 trillion 461.3 billion, or 26.5%, to UAH 6 trillion 980.9 billion in hryvnia terms, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
According to the data, the direct public debt increased by 16.5% in dollars to $159.20 billion, or UAH 6 trillion 692.4 billion, and accounted for 95.9% of the total public and publicly guaranteed debt.
In 2024, Ukraine’s total external public debt increased by 18.1%, or by $18.38 billion, to $114.88 billion, while the total internal public debt increased by 16.7%, or by UAH 276.0 billion, to UAH 1 trillion 863.1 billion.
As a result, the share of total external public debt increased from 70.0% to 72.3% over the year.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the share of liabilities in euros at the end of 2024 increased to 33.01%, in US dollars to 26.81%, in SDRs to 11.39%, in Canadian dollars to 2.83%, in British pounds to 0.11%, while in hryvnia it decreased to 25.33% and in yen to 0.51%.
The agency also clarified that 65.01% of the state debt has a fixed interest rate, while 11.39% is tied to the IMF rate, 12.66% to SOFR, 3.80% to EURIBOR, 0.51% to TORF and 0.10% to SONIA.
The rate for another 2.08% of government debt is tied to the consumer price index, and 4.17% to the NBU discount rate. These are government bonds from the NBU’s portfolio. The newest of these were the securities linked to the key policy rate, which the NBU bought as part of the issue financing of the 2022 budget.
Finally, 0.27% of the state debt has a rate linked to the Ukrainian index of rates on retail deposits, which is used in portfolio guarantee programs.
The Ministry of Finance previously noted that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to a sharp increase in the ratio of public debt to GDP – from 43.3% at the end of 2021 to 79.4% at the end of 2023.
As reported, Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt increased by $13.4 billion in 2022 and by $33.9 billion in 2023.
The IMF, as part of the sixth review of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program with Ukraine last December, improved its forecast for public debt growth due to higher GDP growth and lower deficits: to 92.2% of GDP by the end of 2024 and to 104.3% by the end of 2025, while in October it estimated it at 95.6% of GDP and 106.6% of GDP, respectively.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis on the state of debt in the world, see more details on the YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.4% in December 2024 compared to December 2023, and by 3.2% for the whole of 2024, but its growth to 3.7% is not excluded, depending on the contribution of the public sector, according to experts of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
“Russian shelling of industrial and energy infrastructure and the offensive of Russian forces at the frontline had a negative impact on the industrial development indicators in December. According to IER estimates, electricity production decreased by 5.2% in December (compared to December 2023 – IF-U),” the IER states in the Monthly Economic Monitoring.
At the same time, real gross value added (GVA) in the extractive industry probably remained close to the previous year’s figure due to higher production of natural gas and iron ore, which continued to offset the decline in coal production.
It is noted that stable demand and logistical export opportunities contributed to the development of metallurgy (in particular, exports of finished metallurgical products continued to grow).
The machine building industry grew due to defense procurement and export growth. As a result, according to the IER, real GVA in manufacturing increased by 4.2% in December compared to December 2023.
Due to higher budget expenditures, the growth rate of GVA in construction grew faster in the fourth quarter than in the third.
As for GVA in livestock, it is declining. This applies to milk production, the number of cattle, etc. Corn harvesting continued, but at a slower pace. According to IER estimates, real GVA in agriculture declined by 3.7% yoy in December.
At the same time, central fiscal expenditures in December were record high, although complete data on the state budget are not yet available.
“Therefore, we may not have fully taken into account the impact of government spending on the performance of the public sector and the sectors of the economy that received additional funds from the budget. This may mean that our estimate of real GDP in December may be too pessimistic,” the IER said.
The Institute also added that for a more accurate assessment of the results for 2024, there is a lack of updated quarterly GDP structure for 2023, as the State Statistics Service has revised the annual figures quite significantly.
Speaking about the results of December, the IER notes that Ukraine has increased electricity imports by 2.6 times compared to December last year – to more than 430 thousand MWh.
In addition, as of January 1, 2025, the transit of Russian gas to Europe was terminated due to the expiration of the Agreement on Cooperation between the Ukrainian GTS Operator LLC and Gazprom.
In 2024, Ukraine’s seaports handled 97.2 million tons of cargo (+57% compared to the previous year), Ukrzaliznytsia transported 174.9 million tons of cargo in 2024 (+18%), and exports by road amounted to more than 10 million tons (+5%).
In December 2024, exports fell due to a decrease in stocks of agricultural products, while imports of machinery and equipment exceeded pre-war levels in dollar terms.
“In December, inflation accelerated once again in annual terms, this time to 12% compared to December 2023. The price increase in 2024 primarily reflected higher costs for producers and retailers, a poorer harvest this year, and likely some recovery in trade margins amid recovering consumer demand. The most significant increase was in food prices,” the IER emphasizes.
It is expected that in 2025, the largest funding will come from the ERA mechanism, which provides a total of $50 billion in assistance from the G7. Part of this aid will be used for military spending, so funding for non-defense needs will be lower.
According to the National Bank of Serbia (NBS), the country’s economy has achieved impressive results in 2024, becoming one of the most stable and fastest growing in Europe. The expected GDP growth is 3.8%, which is significantly higher than the European average. This was made possible by a prudent monetary policy, investment initiatives, and the successful recovery of key sectors of the economy after the global crises of recent years.
One of the most significant events of the year was the assignment of an investment credit rating to Serbia. This status strengthens the confidence of international investors in the country, opening access to more favorable financial conditions and attracting large investments. Experts emphasize that this step is an important incentive for further economic growth.
An important economic achievement was the successful reduction of inflation to the target range of 3% ± 1.5%, which was achieved in May 2024. Since then, the inflation rate has remained stable, which demonstrates the high efficiency of the measures taken by the National Bank.
Throughout the year , Serbia demonstrated the stability of the dinar against the euro. This not only strengthens the confidence of the population and business, but also attracts the attention of foreign companies that view Serbia as a reliable economic partner.
The Serbian government continues to actively support small and medium-sized businesses by introducing preferential lending terms and subsidy programs. In 2024, significant funds were also allocated for the development of infrastructure, agriculture, and the IT sector, which created new jobs and improved the business environment.
The economic achievements of 2024 have strengthened Serbia’s position as one of the leaders among Europe’s emerging economies. New challenges and goals lie ahead, including further reducing inflation, developing export potential, and improving the quality of life. The country’s leadership is confident that the increased pace of reforms will allow the country to maintain its positive momentum in the coming years.
These results are proof of the resilience of the Serbian economy and its ability to adapt to modern challenges, which strengthens the country’s position in the international arena.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2023, according to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service (Ukrstat). According to the statistics agency, seasonally adjusted real GDP increased by 0.2% in the period under review compared to the previous quarter.
As reported, in late October, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its economic growth forecast for 2024 from 3.7% to 4%, and for 2025 from 4.1% to 4.3%. At the same time, the NBU downgraded its inflation forecast for 2024 from 8.5% to 9.7%, and for 2025 from 6.6% to 6.9%.
The Ministry of Economy expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 3.9% in 2024, with inflation at 9.5%. According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 5.3% in 2023 after a 28.8% decline in 2022.
In the first quarter of 2024, real GDP grew by 6.5%, and in the second quarter – by 3.7%.
The National Bank of Ukraine has estimated the growth of Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2024 at 4% compared to the same period last year, while previously it had forecast it at 3.1%.
“The harvesting of late crops started earlier than last year and continues, which supported the agricultural performance in the third quarter. Stable operation of the sea corridor and loose fiscal policy also supported economic activity,” the NBU said in its Inflation Report published on its website.
The NBU noted that such a revision of the economic dynamics assessment in the third quarter made it possible to raise the GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.7% to 4%.
It is specified that at the end of the third quarter, the harvested area of late crops was 81% higher than last year, and the harvest volume was 68% higher, the volume of cargo transshipment for export in seaports increased 2.1 times in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2023, and the volume of rail freight increased by 15%.
“As in previous quarters, investment demand made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter. In particular, it was supported by public capital investment in defense and related projects, such as weapons production, as well as disaster relief spending,” the NBU added.
He also emphasized the growth of private sector investment due to further improvement in the financial results of enterprises and their significant needs for energy-autonomous equipment given the difficult situation in the energy sector.
Explaining the slowdown in growth to 2.4% in the fourth quarter, the NBU cited earlier harvesting of late grains and oilseeds and their significantly lower yields compared to last year as one of the reasons for the negative contribution of agriculture to real GDP.
As for 2025, the NBU has improved its growth forecast for the first quarter from 1.8% to 2.3%, and for the second quarter from 2.8% to 3.4%, expecting growth to accelerate to 4.6% in the third quarter and 6.3% in the fourth quarter, whereas previously it had estimated growth of 5.1-5.9% for the second half of the year.
As a result, the overall GDP growth forecast for next year has been improved from 4.1% to 4.3%, and in nominal terms by UAH 100 billion to UAH 8.72 trillion, while this year’s estimate of nominal GDP was raised by UAH 40 billion to UAH 7.63 trillion.
“In the future, Ukraine’s real GDP growth will accelerate (to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026). This will be facilitated by maintaining a loose fiscal policy, revival of domestic demand, which will be supported by wage growth, increased harvests and stable external demand, as well as investments in recovery, in particular in the energy sector,” the NBU said.
At the same time, he emphasized that economic growth will be constrained by a shortage of labor, security risks, migration processes, and the slow normalization of economic conditions.
In the updated report, the NBU retained three key risks to the forecast (with a strong impact and a probability of 25-50%): a longer duration and intensity of the war, higher budgetary needs, and a greater energy deficit due to further damage to the energy infrastructure.
Among the negative risks with a high probability (25-50%), the NBU added the potential pass-through to prices of higher interest rates or additional taxes, although the NBU assesses its impact as moderate.
The impact of the risk of more intense and prolonged blocking of cargo traffic across the border with certain EU countries remains weak in the updated Inflation Report, with the probability decreasing to less than 15%.
The NBU added increased emigration to the risk of rising geopolitical tensions with a moderate impact and a probability of 15-25%.
In addition, the probability of a positive risk, i.e. the rapid restoration of damaged energy infrastructure, has been reduced from 15-25% to less than 15%.
“The balance of risks in the baseline forecast is shifted towards increased price pressure,” the NBU said.
As reported, Ukraine’s GDP, according to the State Statistics Service, grew by 5.3% in 2023 after a 28.8% decline in 2022, including 4.7% growth in the fourth quarter of last year. In the first quarter of this year, the State Statistics Service estimated GDP growth at 6.5%, and in the second quarter – at 3.7%.
