According to Interfax-Ukraine, Ukraine’s economy showed the first signs of emerging from a recession in the first half of 2026, however, the high foreign trade deficit, inflationary pressures, and the dependence of public finances on international aid remain key macroeconomic risks, according to the latest issue of “Economic Monitoring.”
As noted by Maksym Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, after real GDP fell by 0.6% year-over-year in the first quarter, the economy returned to growth in April–June.
In the second quarter, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by 0.4% compared with the same period last year and by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter. At the same time, the National Bank’s forecast projected growth of the Ukrainian economy at only 1.3% for the full year of 2026.
“Positive factors in the first half of the year included the resumption of at least minimal GDP growth, the return of international reserves to above $50 billion, stability in the foreign exchange market, more consistent international financing, and the adaptability of Ukrainian businesses. The main risks remain the war, the state of the energy sector, high production costs, a labor shortage, weak commodity exports, and a growing trade imbalance. Ukraine has a significant supply of external liquidity, but it cannot replace domestic economic growth,” Urakin noted.
Consumer inflation slowed to 7.2% in June, while core inflation accelerated to 8.1%. The NBU’s discount rate remained at 15%.
At the same time, after four months of decline, Ukraine’s international reserves increased by 12.1% in June—to $51.27 billion. The NBU’s foreign exchange interventions remained substantial.
Foreign trade remains one of the main structural risks to the Ukrainian economy. From January through June 2026, merchandise imports totaled approximately $49.3 billion, while exports amounted to about $21 billion. Thus, the merchandise trade deficit reached approximately $28.3 billion.
Public finances also remain under significant strain. Revenues to the General Fund of the state budget for the first half of the year totaled nearly 1.9 trillion UAH, while expenditures amounted to approximately 2.23 trillion UAH.
Approximately 1.4 trillion UAH, or about 63% of all General Fund expenditures, was allocated to the security and defense sector. The volume of international grants totaled 569.6 billion hryvnia.
According to Urakin, one of the main objectives of economic policy should be to transform significant imports of equipment, international funding, and defense spending into a foundation for creating new domestic production capacity.
“The next phase of economic policy should consist not only of maintaining financial stability, but also of transforming imported equipment, international funds, and defense spending into new production assets. The foundation for long-term development should be energy self-sufficiency, the defense-industrial complex, agricultural processing, machine building, production localization, logistics, digital technologies, and exports of high-value-added products,” says the founder of Experts Club.
At the same time, the first half of the year revealed significant differences between the world’s largest economies and emerging markets.
The Chinese economy grew by 4.7% in the first six months of 2026, while India posted a growth rate of about 7.8% in April–June.
Turkey continued to combine economic growth with extremely high inflation. In the second quarter, its GDP increased by 2.3% year-over-year and by 1.1% compared to the previous quarter, while annual inflation in June remained near 32%.
Brazil showed more moderate growth: its GDP in the second quarter increased by 2% year-over-year and by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter. In the first half of the year, the country’s economy grew by 1.9%, and annual inflation in June slowed to 4.64%.
“Key emerging economies ended the first half of the year with very different growth patterns. China grew by 4.7%, but its second quarter was weaker than the first, and domestic consumption lags significantly behind industrial output and exports. India continues to grow by nearly 8%, driven by the size of its domestic market and investment. Turkey remains an example of how inflation exceeding 30% limits the quality of economic growth, while Brazil is showing more moderate growth with gradual control of inflation. For Ukraine, the main conclusion remains the same: long-term growth requires its own industrial, technological, and export base,” Urakin emphasized.
In his assessment, the first half of the year confirmed the viability of Ukraine’s macrofinancial stabilization model, but at the same time revealed its limitations.
“The return of GDP to modest growth and the replenishment of reserves are positive signs; however, the $28.3 billion merchandise trade deficit, high underlying inflationary pressures, and the budget’s dependence on external financing reveal the limits of this model. Only by developing its own production and export base will Ukraine be able to transition from an economy of wartime stabilization to a model of sustainable postwar growth,” concluded Maksym Urakin.
“Economic Monitoring” is a monthly analytical and statistical publication led by Maksym Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics. The publication analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world’s leading economies, as well as trends in GDP, inflation, public finances, international reserves, foreign trade, and key risks to economic development.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.1% in the third quarter, 4.2% in the fourth quarter, and 5.2% in the first quarter of next year, according to an updated quarterly forecast published by the National Bank in its April “Inflation Report” on its website.
“The easing of fiscal policy and a significant economic boost resulting from the allocation of part of external financing to the localization of arms production, as well as larger harvests than last year, crops will contribute to a revival of economic activity in the second half of the year,” noted the NBU, which overall revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward to 1.8% from 1.3% in its April “Inflation Report.”
At that time, the National Bank expected GDP to grow by 1.9% in the third quarter of this year, by 1.7% in the fourth quarter, and by 4.7% in the first quarter of next year.
The NBU now expects the consolidated budget deficit (excluding grants in revenue) to rise to 35.2% of GDP by the end of 2026, compared with 24.7% of GDP last year, whereas as recently as April it had forecast a decrease in this figure to 19.2% of GDP.
According to the report, in the second quarter of this year, budget expenditures rose by 32.7% compared to the second quarter of last year—an increase of 0.45 trillion UAH, to 1.81 trillion UAH—while in the first quarter, they remained at last year’s level of 1.25 trillion UAH.
The National Bank emphasized that the fiscal stimulus offsets the negative impact of shelling, which the National Bank estimates at 0.9 percentage points.
According to a preliminary estimate by the State Statistics Service, following a 0.6% decline in the first quarter of this year, GDP increased by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2026, whereas the National Bank had expected growth of 1.7% in its April forecast.
The NBU explained that more substantial economic growth is being hampered by the consequences of Russia’s intensified attacks on logistics infrastructure—particularly the blockage of ports—as well as on the energy sector and business facilities. The decline also deepened significantly in the construction sector (to 7.5% in the second quarter) against the backdrop of a high base of comparison from last year, a shortage of skilled workers, and shifts in the structure of demand amid war and energy shocks: activity shifted away from large residential projects toward private housing and infrastructure restoration.
The National Bank also confirmed its growth forecast for 2027 at 2.8%, but revised its expectations for quarterly growth: while in April it had projected a 2.5% increase in GDP for the second quarter of next year, 2.0% in the third quarter, and 2.5% in the fourth, these figures now stand at 4.3%, 2.4%, and 0.2%, respectively.
The NBU attributes the acceleration of the recovery in the coming years to increased investment in the expansion of production capacity—particularly in the defense industry—further increases in crop yields, gradual stabilization in the energy sector, and sustained consumer demand.
“Accommodative fiscal policy will lead to a positive GDP gap in 2026–2027,” the Inflation Report also notes.
The forecast for the consolidated budget deficit for next year has been raised from 17.7% of GDP to 25.6% of GDP, and for 2028—from 10.9% of GDP to 14.6% of GDP.
According to the report, the downward revision of the GDP growth forecast for 2028 from 3.7% to 3.0% is due to more substantial fiscal consolidation.
As previously reported, according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 1.8% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% decline in 2022—the first year of full-scale Russian aggression.
The Experts Club analytical center has presented a new short video dedicated to changes in the composition of the world’s 20 largest economies by gross domestic product calculated at purchasing power parity. The analysis shows a gradual shift in the center of the global economy from North America and Western Europe toward Asia, as well as the strengthening of large developing countries with large populations and growing domestic markets.
According to Experts Club calculations based on the International Monetary Fund’s April World Economic Outlook database, China remains the world’s largest economy by GDP at PPP in 2026. Its figure is estimated at $44.3 trillion in international dollars. The United States ranks second with $32.4 trillion, followed by India in third place with $18.9 trillion. Russia ranks fourth at about $7.5 trillion, Japan fifth at $7.3 trillion, and Germany sixth at $6.4 trillion. They are followed by Indonesia, Brazil, France and the United Kingdom. The second ten of the world’s largest economies includes Türkiye, Italy, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Nigeria and Taiwan.
The figures cited are IMF estimates for 2026 rather than final annual results. The full World Economic Outlook database was published in April 2026 and contains statistical data and forecasts through 2031.
At the beginning of the 1990s, the structure of the global economy looked significantly different. In 1992, the United States ranked first, Japan second and Germany third. China was only in sixth place, India ninth and Indonesia 14th. By 2026, China had risen to first place, India to third and Indonesia to seventh. South Korea moved from 18th place in 1992 to 14th, while Türkiye moved from 15th to 11th.
The growth of Asian countries is associated with population growth, urbanization, expansion of industrial production, infrastructure development and the formation of large domestic consumer markets. China’s rise has been particularly notable. In 1992, its economy at PPP was almost five times smaller than that of the United States, whereas today China’s figure is roughly one-third higher than the U.S. figure. India has also significantly narrowed the gap with the world’s largest economies. Its GDP at PPP in 2026 is almost three times that of Japan or Germany.
Western European countries remain widely represented among the world’s largest economies, but their relative positions are gradually declining. Germany moved from third place in 1992 to sixth in 2026. Italy fell from fifth to 12th, France from seventh to ninth, and the United Kingdom from eighth to tenth. The Netherlands, which was among the top 20 in the early 1990s, subsequently dropped out. Australia has also periodically ranked among the top 20 but is currently outside it.
This trend does not mean an absolute contraction of European economies. Their GDP continues to grow, but the economies of Asia, the Middle East and individual African countries are expanding faster. GDP at PPP additionally strengthens the positions of developing countries because it takes differences in domestic prices into account. One international dollar is intended to represent a comparable amount of goods and services across different economies, regardless of the market exchange rate of the national currency.
One of the important trends of recent decades has been the strengthening of major African countries. Egypt ranks 18th in the IMF’s 2026 estimate with GDP at PPP of about $2.57 trillion, while Nigeria ranks 19th with $2.42 trillion. Their presence in the top 20 is primarily related to the size of their populations and domestic markets. At the same time, high aggregate GDP does not automatically mean a high standard of living for citizens. To assess living standards, GDP at PPP per capita, labor productivity, the structure of the economy, income distribution and the quality of public services must be considered separately.
Following the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine remained among the world’s 20 largest economies by GDP at PPP for some time. According to Experts Club calculations based on the IMF’s historical data series, Ukraine ranked 17th in 1992 with about $433 billion in international dollars. In 1993, it ranked 19th, while in 1994 it fell to 23rd place and finally left the top 20.
In 2000, Ukraine ranked approximately 35th, in 2010 it was 31st, and on the eve of the full-scale war, in 2021, it ranked around 34th. Following the sharp contraction of the economy in 2022, Ukraine fell to 47th place. The World Bank estimated the decline in Ukraine’s real GDP in 2022 at approximately 29%. In subsequent years, the economy partially recovered. According to the IMF estimate, Ukraine ranked approximately 46th in 2025 and may rise to 44th place in 2026. Ukraine’s GDP at PPP in 2026 is estimated at approximately $724.5 billion in international dollars. This is about 0.33% of the global economy. Ukraine is positioned between Chile and Austria, ahead of Peru, the Czech Republic, Iraq and Norway.
“Ukraine’s departure from the top 20 did not occur in recent years, but back in the first half of the 1990s. Since then, the world has changed significantly: China, India, Indonesia, Türkiye and other developing countries expanded their industries, infrastructure and domestic consumption, while Ukraine went through prolonged structural crises, population loss and insufficient investment,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center.
According to him, the full-scale war further widened the gap between Ukraine and the world’s largest economies due to the destruction of enterprises, energy facilities and transport infrastructure, as well as the reduction in labor resources. As of the end of 2025, direct damage to Ukraine was estimated at more than $195 billion, while recovery and reconstruction needs for the next decade were estimated at nearly $588 billion.
The world’s 20th-largest economy, Taiwan, has GDP at PPP of about $2.27 trillion. This is more than three times Ukraine’s figure. Therefore, Ukraine cannot return to the top 20 through short-term post-war recovery alone. This will require sustained productivity growth, increased investment, the return of part of the population, development of the manufacturing industry and expansion of exports of high value-added products.
“The main conclusion from the ranking lies not in the country’s position itself, but in the speed of its movement relative to other countries. Even growth of several percent per year may be insufficient if competitors are growing faster. Ukraine needs a model of accelerated development designed for at least two decades,” Urakin emphasized.
Experts Club notes that GDP at PPP rankings make it possible to assess the scale of national economies and their role in global production, but they should not be used as the sole indicator of economic success. The United States, for example, trails China in aggregate GDP at PPP but significantly outpaces it in GDP per capita, financial market development and the value of high-tech companies.
The main global trend remains the gradual shift of economic weight toward Asia and the countries of the Global South. In the coming decades, this process will be supported by demographic growth, urbanization and the expansion of the middle class in India, Indonesia, Africa and other developing regions.
Germany’s GDP rose by 0.2% in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, according to the Federal Statistical Office, which released preliminary data. The consensus forecast by experts, as cited by Trading Economics, had predicted growth of 0.1%.
Germany’s year-over-year economic growth was 0.9%, while experts had expected growth of 0.6%.
In the first quarter, Germany’s GDP increased by 0.4% compared to the previous three months and by 0.7% on an annual basis. The data for January–March were revised upward; previously, growth of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, had been reported.
According to preliminary data, exports in April–June rose compared to the first quarter, while consumer and government spending remained weak, and business investment declined.
Final data on Germany’s second-quarter GDP growth will be released on August 25.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in May of this year compared to May 2025, marking the third consecutive month of growth following 0.9% in April and March, according to estimates published by the Ministry of Economy and Environment.
“In May 2026, for the third consecutive month following the most difficult winter since the start of Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, the economy continued its recovery (…), which made it possible to make up for the shortfall accumulated since the beginning of the year and, by the end of the first five months of 2026, return to the zero mark compared to the corresponding period of 2025,” the ministry’s report states.
According to these data, in January–May 2026, compared to January–May 2025, growth was observed in most sectors, particularly in domestic trade—thanks to the sector’s high flexibility and adaptability to changes and rising wages; the extractive industry—driven by oil and gas production against the backdrop of a low statistical base in 2025 due to damage to production infrastructure; in agriculture—specifically in the livestock sector (poultry farming); in the manufacturing sector—thanks to steady growth in the production of defense-related goods, products needed for the energy sector’s recovery, and food products.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economy noted that electricity supply and transportation remain the most affected and vulnerable sectors due to military risks.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.6% from 2.4%, the figure on which the 2026 state budget was based when it was approved late last year. Under an optimistic scenario, which assumes the war will end by 2027, GDP growth next year will be 4.5%, while under a less optimistic scenario, it will be 1.3%.
In April, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8%, but left its forecast for next year at 2.8%.
The ICU Investment Group has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 to less than 1% (0.8% expected) compared to its previous estimate in December of 1.2%.
“Weak economic growth will be the new norm in the coming years unless the security situation improves significantly,” according to ICU’s updated macroeconomic forecast.
ICU noted that private household consumption and government investment in military projects remain the main pillars of the economy, however, the strength of these components will gradually weaken, so the investment company lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current year from 1.2% in the December macro forecast to 0.8% in the June update.
According to the company’s press release, GDP contraction in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated at 0.5%, which is slightly below most estimates; ICU believes that growth potential in the medium term remains quite limited.
According to the press release, analysts have downgraded the inflation forecast for 2026 to 9–10%, compared to previous expectations of around 7%. This trend is attributed to the primary and secondary effects of the crisis in the Middle East and the war in Iran on global consumer prices.
ICU considers the current tightness of monetary policy sufficient to offset temporary inflationary pressures, so the probability of an NBU policy rate hike by year-end is estimated at no more than 50% (the rate forecast for 2026 is 15%).
Due to a significant increase in imbalances in the foreign exchange market and a rise in the NBU’s currency sales interventions to $18.1 billion over the first five months of this year (compared to $14.3 billion during the same period last year), the investment group expects the pace of the hryvnia’s depreciation to accelerate. For the full year, the increase in interventions compared to last year’s figure could amount to $6–7 billion, and their total volume could approach $42–43 billion, leading to a revision of the exchange rate forecast for the end of 2026 to 45.8 UAH/$1 compared to the previous 45.0 UAH/$1.
At the same time, the budget deficit in 2026 (projected at 21% of GDP excluding grants) will be fully covered by foreign aid, allowing the Ministry of Finance to reduce domestic debt for the first time since the start of the full-scale war. Approval of the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan (USL) will enable the NBU to maintain international reserves at $60 billion by year-end.
According to the updated table of macroeconomic indicators, ICU also forecasts nominal GDP of $229 billion, a current account deficit of 18% of GDP, and an increase in public debt to 107% of GDP by the end of 2026. The baseline assumption of the forecast is that security risks will not change fundamentally in the medium term: a peace agreement will not be signed, but the enemy will not make any new territorial gains either.
As reported, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8% in April, but kept it at 2.8% for next year, and expects it to accelerate to 3.7% in 2028. Regarding inflation, the NBU revised its forecast for 2026 downward in April from 7.5% to 9.4%, and for 2027 from 6% to 6.5%, and expects it to decrease to 5% as early as 2028.
The government’s forecast, incorporated into the 2026 state budget, currently projects 2.4% growth, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev has announced plans to revise it downward.
The EBRD, in turn, has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 2.2%; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2026, while the World Bank forecasts growth of 1.2%.
