Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter of 2024, while in the first quarter of this year the same indicator was 0.9%, according to the State Statistics Service.
According to its data, compared to the previous quarter, taking into account seasonal factors, real GDP increased by 0.2%.
As reported, in July, the NBU once again lowered its expectations for Ukraine’s economic growth this year to 2.1% from 3.1% in its April macroeconomic forecast, while the Ministry of Economy and the government maintain their forecast of 2.7%.
The National Bank of Ukraine estimated real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 at 1.1% compared to the same period last year, while previously forecasting it at 1.6%. According to its updated forecast, real GDP growth in the third quarter of this year has been revised down to 2.4% from 3.5%, and in the fourth quarter to 3.5% from 5.9%.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 2.9% in 2024 from 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% decline in 2022, the first year of full-scale Russian aggression. In the fourth quarter of last year, GDP fell by 0.1% after growing by 2.2% in the third quarter, 4.0% in the second quarter, and 6.8% in the first quarter.
The NBU forecasts GDP growth of 2.3% for next year, while the government forecasts 2.4%.
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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its economic growth forecast for developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region in 2025 to 4.7% from the 4.9% expected in April.
The GDP growth estimate for next year has been lowered to 4.6% from 4.7%.
“The downward revision reflects expectations of weaker exports amid higher US import tariffs and global trade uncertainty, as well as weaker domestic demand,” the ADB said in a report.
The outlook for the Asia-Pacific region could be further undermined by escalating US tariffs and trade tensions, experts say. Other risks include conflicts and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt global supply chains and lead to higher energy prices, as well as a more serious than expected deterioration in China’s real estate market.
“The economic outlook has deteriorated amid rising risks and global uncertainty,” said Albert Park, chief economist at the ADB. “Economies in the region should continue to strengthen their fundamentals and promote open trade and regional integration to support investment, employment, and growth.”
Inflation in developing Asia-Pacific countries is projected to continue slowing amid lower oil prices and high agricultural production, which will ease pressure on food prices. The ADB forecasts inflation at 2% this year and 2.1% in 2026, compared with April estimates of 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively.
The bank’s analysts still expect China’s GDP to grow by 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% next year. Inflation this year is expected to be 0.2% (in April it was predicted to be 0.4%), and in 2026 – 0.4% (0.7%).
South Korea’s economy will grow by 0.8% this year, while previously a 1.5% increase was expected. The growth estimate for 2026 has been lowered to 1.6% from 1.9%.
India’s GDP is forecast to grow by 6.5% this year and 6.7% next year. The previous forecast predicted growth of 6.7% and 6.8%, respectively.
The ADB still expects Indonesia’s economy to grow by 5% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026.
The ADB was established in 1966. Its shareholders are 69 countries, 49 of which are located in the Asian region.
The bank considers 46 of these countries to be developing Asian countries.
Germany’s central bank does not expect the country’s GDP to grow in April-June 2025 after an unexpected rise in the first quarter. The economy has “probably stagnated” and the underlying trend is still characterized as “generally weak,” according to the Bundesbank’s monthly report.
The central bank warned that the introduction of 30% import duties recently announced by US President Donald Trump would create a “significant risk of economic decline.”
“In the short term, Germany’s export industry will face additional obstacles in the form of US tariff policy,” the Bundesbank said in a report.
Germany’s economy grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous three months. The GDP growth rate was the highest since the third quarter of 2022. However, this increase is largely due to attempts by businesses and exporters to get ahead of US duties.
Preliminary data on the dynamics of Germany’s GDP in the second quarter will be published on July 30.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center made a video analysis of the prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies, see more in the video – https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=F4IOLdLuVbYmEh5P
Brazil’s Ministry of Finance has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025, but expects the economic upturn to slow down as a result of the country’s central bank’s tight monetary policy.
The GDP growth forecast for the current year has been raised to 2.5% from the 2.4% expected in May, and for 2026 it has been lowered to 2.4% from 2.5%.
The forecasts do not take into account the consequences of Washington’s introduction of 50% tariffs on all imports from Brazil, the Ministry of Finance notes. Earlier, US President Donald Trump announced that these tariffs would take effect on August 1.
“The tariffs are unlikely to have a significant impact on GDP growth in 2025, although certain industries may suffer quite severely,” the Ministry of Finance said in a statement.
In the first quarter of this year, Brazil’s GDP increased by 1.4% compared to the previous three months, the highest in three quarters. GDP growth in annual terms was 2.9%.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center made a video analysis of the prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies. For more details, see the video at https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=F4IOLdLuVbYmEh5P
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.1% in May 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, according to the Monthly Economic Monitor of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
“The State Statistics Service has begun to publish data on industry more quickly, which allows us to assess the state of the Ukrainian economy more accurately. The new data show that growth rates remain low, although certain positive signals are already emerging,” according to the results of the study published on the IER website on Thursday.
According to the IER, real gross value added (GVA) growth in the manufacturing industry accelerated to 2.4% in May compared to 2024, up from 1.4% in April after a decline in March. This indicator was supported by more stable domestic demand.
In addition, companies faced fewer problems with access to electricity in May. According to the IER’s estimates, real GVA in electricity grew by 3% year-on-year in April and 4.8% in May. The decline in the extractive industry slowed to 10.4% (compared to 2024) in May due to a slight recovery in gas production and an increase in the extraction of construction raw materials.
According to the State Statistics Service, retail trade turnover grew by 4.8% in the first quarter. Data on wholesale trade has not yet been released, but the IER assumes that it continued to decline slightly due to the ongoing transition to direct sales and reduced use of warehouses due to shelling by the Russian army. Therefore, real GDP growth in trade in April and May is estimated at 2% year-on-year, although wages continue to rise rapidly.
Real GVA in agriculture declined by 2.4% year-on-year in May, which is close to April’s figures. This reflects a decline in livestock production by households, which was not offset by a slight increase in production by enterprises.
The IER estimates that real GVA in transport declined by 6.4% in May compared to the previous year. The slowdown in rail freight transport continued, and the impact of the suspension of gas transit persisted, although growth was observed in other transport sub-sectors.
In the first five months of 2025, Ukrzaliznytsia transported 22.2 million tons of cargo to ports. In particular, 12.7 million tons of grain were transported, of which 11.4 million tons were for export (to ports and the western border). This figure is 30% lower than in January-May 2024.
“The decline in rail transport reflects a seasonal trend in lower grain sales in anticipation of the new harvest,” the IER explains.
In addition, electricity imports rose by 3.6% in May compared to April, to 198,000 MWh. Most of the electricity was supplied from Hungary (40%). Electricity exports in May fell by 41% compared to April, to 93,000 MWh.
As for gas, the IER warns of the threat of a shortage if not all production capacities are restored after the Russian shelling. Currently, the shortage is estimated at approximately EUR 1 billion. As of mid-May, 6.14 billion cubic meters of gas had been accumulated in underground storage facilities (UGS).
As noted, the May level of UGS filling was the lowest in the last 11 years. Last month, 11.7 TWh, or more than 1.1 billion cubic meters, of gas was sent to UGS, which is 49% more than in May last year. Of this, about 500 million cubic meters came from abroad, while a year ago such inflows were close to zero.
“This indicates that the injection of Ukrainian-produced gas into storage facilities in May was not much lower than last year’s figure. The average daily injection rate in May was 376 GWh, or approximately 36 million cubic meters, and in the first 16 days of June, it rose to 463 GWh, or 45 million cubic meters,” the IER said.
International rating agency Fitch Ratings predicts that Ukraine’s current account deficit will increase this year to 14.5% of GDP from 7.2% of GDP in 2024 and 5.3% in 2023, reflecting high gas and steel imports and lower remittances from Ukrainian refugees, as well as high defense imports and exports of goods, which are 38% below pre-war levels.
Inflation is forecast to average 12.3% in 2025, before slowing to 6.5% in 2026 as base effects and monetary policy transmission gain traction.
Fitch also lowered its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine for 2025 from 2.9% to 2.5% due to challenges related to ongoing labor market tensions, damage caused by attacks on gas infrastructure, and the closure of Pokrovskugol due to hostilities.
