Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for January-March 2024 amounted to 4.5% (+/- 1%) from 3.6% (+/- 1%) at the end of January-February.
Growth accelerated to 4.6% (+/- 1%) in March from 3.9% (+/- 1%) in February and 3.5% (+/- 1%) in January this year, according to an estimate released on the website of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.
“In March 2024, the trend of recovery growth continued, supported by the stable operation of the Ukrainian maritime corridor (stimulated activity in rail transport, metallurgy and metal ore mining), increased production capacity in the extractive industry, intensified production of mineral fertilizers, increased demand for construction materials, taking place against the backdrop of improved business sentiment … and revival of consumer activity …,” the Ministry of Economy pointed out.
The Ministry added that in March, almost all aggregated economic activities formed a positive contribution to the total GDP. Thus, exports of products of agricultural production and mining and metallurgical complex were provided by the Ukrainian Sea Corridor; and investment demand generated by the budget, as well as the increase in production capacity in the extractive industry formed a positive contribution of production types.
At the same time, it is pointed out that the dynamics of electricity production slowed down significantly in the context of significant rocket attacks in late March, which led to serious damage to energy infrastructure and will require a significant period of time and resources to restore it.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine on April 25 worsened its forecast for the country’s GDP growth this year from 3.6% to 3% after 5.3% last year.
When approving the draft state budget for the second reading in early November 2023, the government forecasted GDP growth of 4.6% this year.
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club youtube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, UKRAINE, УРАКІНА
The National Bank of Ukraine has raised its forecast of international reserves to $43.4 billion at the end of this year from $40.4 billion and to $44.3 billion at the end of next year from $42.1 billion.
“Compared to the previous forecast, the risk of insufficient international financing this year has significantly weakened, but the risks of rhythmicity of its receipt remain,” the NBU said in a press release on Thursday.
The central bank reminded that in March, about $9 billion was received from international partners, which allowed to increase international reserves to almost $44 billion.
In addition, in recent days, Ukraine has received positive news from the United States about the approval of a military and financial assistance package, and another tranche of EUR 1.5 billion has been received from the EU.
“In view of this, Ukraine can count on $38 billion of external budgetary assistance this year,” the NBU said.
According to its updated forecast, the estimate of the current account deficit this year has been downgraded from $16.9 billion to $20.2 billion, but next year it has been improved from $19.8 billion to $18.2 billion.
For more details on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world, GDP of major countries and other economic topics, please see one of the video analyzes of the Experts club think tank – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=Ymo-FlMFNGfLLdK-
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EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, international reserve, MACROECONOMICS, NATIONAL BANK
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) year-on-year growth in March 2024 was 4.9%, compared to 5.0% in February and 5.2% in January, according to the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IEPC) Monthly Economic Monitor.
“Businesses faced restrictions on electricity supply as a result of Russian shelling of energy facilities. This has held back GDP growth. In April, we also expect GDP growth to slow down due to problems with access to electricity due to massive generation destruction,” said Alexandra Betlij, a leading researcher at the IEI.
The institute estimates that real gross value added (GVA) growth in the processing industry, slowed to almost 11% in March, down from 17% in January, while real GVA in electricity generation declined by 2% and is expected to fall further in April.
It is pointed out that real GVA in transportation continued to grow by more than 20%. Growth was also maintained in construction, particularly due to the construction of budget-financed fortifications, while growth in trade slowed to 4.6%.
Among the main macroeconomic trends last month, IED experts additionally highlighted the increase in transportation by Ukrzaliznytsia and through the Ukrainian Sea Corridor, which contributes to the development of a number of sectors of the economy, record external financing in the amount of $9 bln, a decrease in inflation to 3.2% and the discount rate to 14.5%, as well as the weakening of the hryvnia to 39 UAH/$1 on the background of restrained interventions by the NBU
It is also noted that the value of merchandise exports fell sharply in March this year compared to March last year amid continued decline in grain and iron ore prices.
As reported, after Ukraine’s GDP growth of 5.3% in 2023, the National Bank expects it to slow down this year to 3.6%, while the government – to 4.6%. According to the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth for January-February this year amounted to 3.6%, while the NBU in January forecast it in the first quarter at 7.1%.
The Estonian Ministry of Finance expects zero growth of the country’s economy at the end of the current year.
According to the forecast published by the Ministry, the reduction in external demand in the second half of last year was stronger than expected, and the expected turn to economic recovery did not take place. This will have the consequence of the lack of growth in the current year.
The Ministry of Economy notes that last year, the exchange of goods contracted globally, driven by the cooling of the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions. In developed countries and Europe, this was compounded by the rapid rise in interest rates, which was launched to curb inflation, and the deterioration in capital- and energy-intensive activities due to the energy crisis.
Nevertheless, according to the Ministry’s assessment, the factors restraining the development of the Estonian economy have been receding in recent years: price growth has slowed down, wage growth has continued, interest rates have gradually decreased, and there is no high unemployment.
The Estonian Ministry of Finance prepares a financial and economic forecast twice a year, in spring and summer.
Estonia’s GDP in 2023 has decreased by 3.1%. At the end of March 2024, the Bank of Estonia gave a forecast that the country’s GDP decline would slow down to “minus” 0.6% this year and the economy would grow by 3.2% in 2025.
Earlier Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s largest economies has changed over the past decades, more video analysis is available here –
https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3
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ECONOMIC GROWTH, ESTONIA, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, URAKIN
Ukraine’s international reserves in March, according to preliminary estimates of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), increased by 18%, or $6.7 billion – to $43 billion 762.7 million.
“Such dynamics is due to significant (more than $9 billion) volumes of receipts from international partners, which exceeded the net sale of currency by the National Bank and the country’s debt payments in foreign currency,” the NBU website explained on Friday.
In addition, the National Bank noted that $9.32 billion was transferred to foreign currency accounts of the Cabinet of Ministers in March, while $363.5 million was paid for servicing and repayment of the state debt.
As the regulator noted, Ukraine also paid $728.5m to the International Monetary Fund.
Among other factors determining the volume of reserves, the NBU named operations on the foreign exchange market: in March, the regulator’s net sale of foreign currency amounted to $1.79bn, which is 18.5% more than in the previous month.
According to balance sheet data, the NBU sold $1.81 bln on the foreign exchange market and bought $25.9 mln in reserves.
The central bank also indicated that the current volume of reserves was positively affected by the revaluation of the value of financial instruments, adding $266.3 million.
“The current volume of international reserves provides funding for 5.8 months of future imports,” the regulator stated.
As reported, the NBU in January reduced the forecast of Ukraine’s international reserves at the end of 2024 to $40.4 billion from $44.7 billion and to $42.1 billion from $45 billion at the end of 2025. Earlier, Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, International reserves of Ukraine, MACROECONOMICS, NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE, NBU, URAKIN
China’s economy grew by about 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, Bank of China forecasts.
Domestic consumption grew stronger than expected. Manufacturing investment increased, production is also recovering steadily, and the trend of industrial upgrading and transformation is evident, according to the bank’s report cited by Xinhua news agency.
A positive factor for Chinese exports was the increase in global demand and improved sentiment in global trade.
Bank of China analysts expect that the second quarter will see an improvement in China’s service sector, resulting in an acceleration of the country’s GDP growth to 5.1%. This will also be facilitated by the authorities’ actions aimed at maintaining significant investment in infrastructure through the use of a wide range of policy instruments.
Earlier Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3
Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Bank of China Economy of China, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN
