According to Dw.com, German law enforcement authorities detained a 33-year-old Ukrainian citizen suspected of gathering information about a defense contractor in Bavaria to prepare for possible sabotage.
As reported on August 6 by the Munich Public Prosecutor’s Office and the Bavarian State Criminal Police Office, the man was detained on August 2 in the federal state of Thuringia with the assistance of local police. The following day, a Munich district court issued an arrest warrant, after which the suspect was placed in a pretrial detention center in Bavaria.
According to the investigation, in June 2026, the man allegedly photographed the premises of a defense contractor in southern Germany and transmitted the images to his client. German law enforcement officials suspect that this material could have been used to prepare acts of sabotage.
The suspect is considered a so-called “low-level agent.” German security agencies use this term to describe individuals whom foreign intelligence services may recruit to carry out specific, straightforward tasks, such as photographing facilities, conducting surveillance, or gathering publicly available information.
The prosecutor’s office has not disclosed which country’s intelligence service may have recruited the man. The name of the defense contractor is also being withheld due to the ongoing investigation.
In Germany, suspicion of espionage aimed at preparing acts of sabotage carries criminal liability. The investigation is currently ongoing, and the detainee’s guilt has not been established by a court.
German security agencies have previously warned of an increase in attempts by foreign intelligence services to recruit operatives via social media and messaging apps. Defense companies, military facilities, and transportation and energy infrastructure were cited as potential targets of such operations. At the same time, law enforcement officials have not yet officially linked the new arrest to a specific country or other investigations.
Net migration to Germany fell to 235,000 people in 2025, compared with 663,000 in 2023, according to a study by the German Economic Institute (IW) published on July 28, 2026. Excluding the pandemic period, this is the lowest figure since 2010. Experts at the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center attribute the decline to several factors: a decrease in the number of refugees, the departure of workers from Central and Eastern European countries, a decline in migration from the Western Balkans, and an increase in emigration by German citizens themselves.
The largest net inflow from a single country in 2025 came from Ukrainian citizens, amounting to 89,000 people. A year earlier, the figure was 116,000. Ukrainians have a special status because they are admitted to Germany mainly under the EU’s temporary protection mechanism rather than through the standard asylum procedure. Further developments will depend primarily on the course of the war and the conditions of Ukrainians’ stay in Germany.
By the end of 2025, approximately 1.41 million Ukrainian citizens were listed in Germany’s Central Register of Foreigners. They became the second-largest foreign group after Turkish citizens.
The number of initial asylum applications fell from 329,000 in 2023 to 113,000 in 2025.
The inflow from Syria declined particularly sharply: the number of initial applications fell from 103,000 to 23,000. Over the same period, the number of applicants from Afghanistan decreased from 51,000 to 24,000, while the number from Turkey fell from 61,000 to 12,000.
At the end of 2025, the largest groups of people registered in Germany as being in need of protection remained citizens of Ukraine, at approximately 1.164 million; Syria, at 669,000; and Afghanistan, at 321,000.
IW links the decline in Syrian migration primarily to the change in the situation in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in 2024, as well as to the tightening of German and EU migration policies.
Another important change was the reversal of migration from the new EU member states.
In 2023, Germany recorded a net inflow of approximately 42,000 citizens from these countries. In 2024, 35,000 more people left Germany than arrived, while in 2025 the net outflow reached 45,000 people.
This group includes, in particular, citizens of Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Croatia, and other countries that joined the EU from 2004 onward. Economists explain migrants’ return by the narrowing gap in wages and living standards, growing demand for workers in their own countries, and the overall ageing of the population of Central and Eastern Europe.
At the end of 2025, approximately 904,000 Romanian citizens and 840,000 Polish citizens were registered in Germany. Over the year, the number of Polish citizens declined by approximately 25,000, while the total number of EU citizens fell by 75,000.
In recent years, citizens of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia have been actively recruited into the German labour market, including under special rules for the Western Balkans. However, their net migration has been steadily declining since 2022. In 2025, it amounted to approximately 39,000 people. IW warns that the potential for further recruitment of workers from the Balkans is also limited: the populations of most countries in the region are shrinking, while their own labour markets are facing staff shortages.
Against the backdrop of the overall decline, there are also opposing trends. Net migration of Vietnamese citizens increased from 10,000 people in 2023 to 19,000 in 2025.
At the same time, the number of residence permits issued to citizens of non-European countries for employment purposes increased by 33,000, or 13.6%, between 2023 and 2025. The number of permits related to education also rose by 33,000, or 15.3%. Thus, the inflow of students and skilled workers is currently declining significantly more slowly than humanitarian and intra-European migration.
The net outflow of German citizens increased from 74,000 people in 2023 to 97,000 in 2025. IW notes that negative migration among German citizens occurs regularly. However, growth of approximately 30% over two years may be an alarming signal, especially if qualified specialists are leaving the country.
At the same time, part of the statistics may relate to previously naturalised migrants who return to their countries of origin after obtaining German citizenship. It is difficult to assess the structure of this outflow precisely because the final destination country is not recorded for many of those leaving.
According to the Central Register of Foreigners, approximately 14.07 million foreign nationals were living in Germany at the end of 2025.
The largest groups were:
Approximately 5 million foreigners, or 35%, were citizens of EU member states. Another 4.6 million held the citizenship of other European countries, while approximately 4.5 million represented countries in Asia, Africa, the Americas, and other regions.
If not only foreign citizens but also migrants who obtained German citizenship and their direct descendants are taken into account, Germany had approximately 21.8 million people with an immigration history in 2025, representing 26.3% of the population. The largest groups by country of birth were people from Poland and Turkey, at approximately 1.5 million each; Ukraine, at 1.3 million; and Russia and Syria, at approximately 1 million each.
The decline in migration is occurring simultaneously with the mass retirement of the baby-boomer generation. According to a separate IW forecast, by 2036 the gap between older workers leaving the labour market and young people reaching working age could reach 4.3 million people. Economists consider a return to a mass inflow of workers from Eastern Europe unlikely. Germany will have to recruit specialists and workers with medium and lower levels of formal qualifications more actively from Asia, Africa, Latin America, and other regions.
IW proposes accelerating visa procedures, reducing the tax and social burden on workers, and extending simplified labour migration mechanisms similar to the existing rules for the Western Balkans to new countries. Thus, this is not about the complete cessation of migration but about a change in its structure. Germany is receiving fewer refugees and workers from neighbouring European countries, while the economy’s need for foreign labour continues to grow because of the ageing population.
According to experts.news, a new heat wave is sweeping across the Balkans and a significant portion of the Danube basin. From July 31 to August 6, temperatures in several countries in the region will reach 35–40 degrees, which will exacerbate the drought and worsen conditions on the Danube, where water levels have already dropped to long-term lows and, in some places, record lows.
The highest temperatures are forecast for Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, and Hungary. In Belgrade, Novi Sad, Zagreb, Podgorica, Tirana, Skopje, and Budapest, temperatures are expected to reach 37–40 degrees. In Sarajevo, temperatures will reach 35–37 degrees.
In Bulgaria and Romania, the heat will initially be less intense, but by August 4–5, temperatures in Bucharest are expected to reach 36–37 degrees. In Moldova, temperatures will rise from 30 degrees on July 30 to 37 degrees on August 4–5. In the Odesa region and the Ukrainian part of the Danube Delta, temperatures are expected to range from 27–32 degrees, but nighttime temperatures in early August may reach 24 degrees.
The situation in the upper part of the basin also remains challenging. In Vienna, temperatures are forecast to reach up to 39 degrees on July 31, and up to 38–39 degrees on August 3–4. In Budapest, temperatures from July 31 through August 5 will mostly range from 38–40 degrees. Isolated thunderstorms in Austria may cause a temporary rise in water levels, but the prolonged heat wave will prevent the accumulated precipitation deficit from being quickly offset.
On the Danube, Sava, and Tisa rivers in Serbia, water levels are below the low navigational marks. In Croatia and Serbia, shallowing has already led to the formation of large sandbars, small vessels running aground, and old sunken ships resurfacing, posing an additional danger to navigation.
Due to insufficient depth, barges and tankers are utilizing only 30–40% of their carrying capacity in certain sections. In July, Serbia received only about 25% of its planned volume of imported fuel via the Danube. Production at Serbia’s largest hydroelectric power plant, “Džerdap-1,” has fallen to about one-third of its usual level.
In Romania, the inflow of water into the Danube has dropped to approximately 1,650 cubic meters per second, compared to an average July figure of about 4,750 cubic meters. Low water levels have led to the shutdown of both power units at the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant, which uses water from the Danube for cooling. In Hungary, restrictions have affected the Paks Nuclear Power Plant.
In the Bulgarian-Romanian section, navigation has been restricted near the islands of Belene, Vardim, and Batyn. Vessels are forced to wait for passage clearance and reduce their cargo loads. At the end of July, a passenger motor ship also ran aground on the Danube, despite the restrictions on draft that were in effect.
Analysis of the Impacts on the Ten Danube Countries
In Germany and Austria, low outflow from the upper reaches means a reduction in the volume of water flowing downstream. Short-term downpours may cause localized rises in water levels, but sustained rainfall throughout the upper and middle basins is necessary for a stable recovery.
For Slovakia and Hungary, the main risks are related to restrictions on barge loading, a decline in river tourism, disruptions in the supply of fuel and raw materials, and strain on energy infrastructure. In Budapest, the Danube’s water level fell below previous lows, and tourist cruises on certain routes were suspended.
Croatia and Serbia are already feeling the direct impact of low water levels on the transport of fuel, industrial raw materials, and agricultural cargo, as well as on port operations. Sandbars and sunken vessels that have risen closer to the surface pose an additional hazard.
For Bulgaria and Romania, low water levels mean reduced vessel draft, queues at narrow sections, suspended ferry crossings, rising grain transportation costs, and risks to the energy sector. Romania is a key link in the route between Ukrainian Danube ports and Constanța, so delays are spreading throughout the entire Lower Danube corridor.
Moldova has a short outlet to the Danube via the port of Giurgiulești. It is located on the river’s maritime section and has greater depth than many inland ports, making it less directly vulnerable to the shallowing of the middle Danube. However, Moldovan cargo depends on the stable operation of the lower reaches of the river, the Romanian canals, and access to the Black Sea. Delays and rising freight rates on this route could increase the cost of the country’s imports and exports.
For Ukraine, the lower Danube is particularly important due to the operations of the ports of Reni, Izmail, and Ust-Dunaysk. Critically low water levels are already limiting the normal loading of barges and delaying the fulfillment of contracts. As of July 20, the cost of transportation from Reni and Izmail to Constanta has risen to approximately $28 per metric ton, and some vessels are losing 30–60% of their cargo capacity.
The continued heat through August 6 will intensify evaporation and maintain pressure on the Danube’s water regime. Even with local rains, any improvement will most likely be temporary, as the water shortage is affecting the entire basin—from Germany and Austria to Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine.
For shippers, the most likely consequences will be a further reduction in barge loading capacity, the use of more vessels to transport the same volume, rising freight rates, delays in the delivery of fuel, grain, and industrial raw materials, as well as the partial rerouting of cargo to rail and road transport.
A significant improvement in the situation is possible only after a prolonged period of rainfall in the Alps, Germany, Austria, Slovakia, and other parts of the basin.
GERMANY, HEAT, low water levels in the Danube, TRANSPORTATION, UKRAINE
Germany’s GDP rose by 0.2% in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, according to the Federal Statistical Office, which released preliminary data. The consensus forecast by experts, as cited by Trading Economics, had predicted growth of 0.1%.
Germany’s year-over-year economic growth was 0.9%, while experts had expected growth of 0.6%.
In the first quarter, Germany’s GDP increased by 0.4% compared to the previous three months and by 0.7% on an annual basis. The data for January–March were revised upward; previously, growth of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, had been reported.
According to preliminary data, exports in April–June rose compared to the first quarter, while consumer and government spending remained weak, and business investment declined.
Final data on Germany’s second-quarter GDP growth will be released on August 25.
The largest suppliers of beer to China in the first half of 2026 were Germany ($53.2 million), the Netherlands ($45.8 million), and Spain ($41.5 million), according to data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) of the People’s Republic of China.
From January through June, China imported beer from 54 countries, while exporting its own beer to more than 100 countries worldwide.
The volume of tractor imports to Ukraine in January–June 2026 totaled $434.7 million, up 3.2% from the same period in 2025 ($421 million), according to statistics from the State Customs Service.
According to the published statistics, tractor imports in June rose by 14.4% compared to June of last year and by 11% compared to May of this year, reaching $72.7 million.
From January through June 2026, tractors were imported primarily from Germany (19.4%, or $84.3 million), China (19.16%, or $83.3 million), and the United States (nearly 18.4%, or $79.9 million), whereas last year the United States was the leader ($79.71 million), China was second ($73.8 million), and Germany ranked third ($73.1 million).
According to statistics from the State Customs Service, tractor exports totaled $4.93 million in the first half of the year, mostly to Belgium (25.3%), while last year’s exports amounted to $2.93 million, with the majority of shipments going to Romania (38%).
As previously reported, tractor imports into Ukraine in 2025 totaled $845.7 million, a 7.9% increase over the 2024 figure; the main suppliers were the United States ($179.7 million), Germany ($145 million), and China ($142.8 million).
Exports totaled $6.6 million, compared to $5.4 million in 2024, with the majority going to Romania, Belgium, and Germany.
