Germany’s central bank does not expect the country’s GDP to grow in April-June 2025 after an unexpected rise in the first quarter. The economy has “probably stagnated” and the underlying trend is still characterized as “generally weak,” according to the Bundesbank’s monthly report.
The central bank warned that the introduction of 30% import duties recently announced by US President Donald Trump would create a “significant risk of economic decline.”
“In the short term, Germany’s export industry will face additional obstacles in the form of US tariff policy,” the Bundesbank said in a report.
Germany’s economy grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous three months. The GDP growth rate was the highest since the third quarter of 2022. However, this increase is largely due to attempts by businesses and exporters to get ahead of US duties.
Preliminary data on the dynamics of Germany’s GDP in the second quarter will be published on July 30.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center made a video analysis of the prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies, see more in the video – https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=F4IOLdLuVbYmEh5P
Support is lowest in France, Spain and Poland, while 21% back authoritarian rule under certain circumstances
Only half of young people in France and Spain believe that democracy is the best form of government, with support even lower among their Polish counterparts, a study has found.
A majority from Europe’s generation Z – 57% – prefer democracy to any other form of government. Rates of support varied significantly, however, reaching just 48% in Poland and only about 51-52% in Spain and France, with Germany highest at 71%.
More than one in five – 21% – would favour authoritarian rule under certain, unspecified circumstances. This was highest in Italy at 24% and lowest in Germany with 15%. In France, Spain and Poland the figure was 23%.
Nearly one in 10 across the nations said they did not care whether their government was democratic or not, while another 14% did not know or did not answer.
Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University, who worked on the study, said: “Among people who see themselves as politically to the right of centre and feel economically disadvantaged, their support of democracy sinks to just one in three.
“Democracy is under pressure, from within and without.”
The study was carried out in April and May. More than 6,700 people between the ages of 16 and 26 in Britain, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Greece and Poland responded to the ninth annual survey by the YouGov institute for the Tui Foundation, which funds projects dedicated to youth in Europe.
Forty-eight per cent worry that the democratic system in their own country is endangered, including 61% in Germany, where the economy – Europe’s biggest – is ailing and the far right has made significant inroads, fuelled in part by increased backing from young voters.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House, the rise of China, and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine have shifted power away from Europe in the respondents’ perception, with just 42% counting the EU among the top three global players.
Despite – or perhaps because of – Brexit, the figure was highest among Britons at 50%. Of those surveyed in the UK, 73% wanted a return to the EU, while nearly half of young Europeans (47%) sought stronger ties between the EU and Britain.
The US was seen by 83% as part of the power trio, followed by China with 75% and Russia on 57%.
Rising polarisation is also driving young Europeans to the ideological fringes along with their elders, but a notable gender divide has emerged in the process.
Nearly one in five – 19% – described themselves as politically right of centre, up from 14% in 2021, while 33% called themselves centrists, 32% as leftist and 16% without any designation.
Women in Germany, France and Italy identified as progressive in higher numbers than four years ago, while young men in Poland and Greece have grown more conservative in the same period.
Support for tougher restrictions on migration has grown across the board since 2021, to 38% from 26%.
Most young Europeans expressed hope in the EU’s potential, and two in three overwhelmingly supported their country remaining in the bloc if it still was. But 39% described the EU as not particularly democratic and just 6% said their own national governments worked well, with little need for significant changes.
More than half – 53% – felt the EU was too focused on details and trivial matters. They would like the bloc to tackle the high cost of living, bolster defence against external threats and create better conditions for companies to improve the economy.
Elke Hlawatschek, the head of the Tui Foundation, said: “The European project, which has brought us peace, freedom of movement and economic progress for decades, is seen as unwieldy.”
Greek people see the strongest need for fundamental overhaul of their political system and are most sceptical about the EU, which Faas described as rooted in enduring trauma of the eurozone debt crisis that drove their country’s economy to the brink.
Despite stronger support for climate protection among young Europeans, just one in three said it should take priority over economic growth. The figure has slipped from 44% in 2021.
BREXIT, EUROPE, EUROPEAN UNION, FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY, NEWS, Young people
Former State Secretary for Financial Affairs and experienced diplomat Heiko Thoms will become Germany’s ambassador to Ukraine, replacing Martin Eger, who will now head the Federal Intelligence Service, Die Welt reported on Tuesday.
“Former State Secretary for Financial Affairs Heiko Thoms will represent Germany as ambassador to Ukraine in the future… The cabinet is expected to approve the appointment on Wednesday,” the publication said on its website.
Until this year’s government change, Thoms was State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Finance.
He will replace Martin Eger, who will become the new head of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND). Eger also received Foreign Minister Johann Wazewsky during his visit to Ukraine this week.
According to reports, the 57-year-old Toms is an experienced diplomat. From 2020 to 2023, he was Germany’s ambassador to Brazil, and before that, he was deputy head of the German mission to NATO.
Economic experts predict a further decline in inflation in Germany in the second half of 2025. The main factors contributing to this are:
Lower energy prices
Stronger euro
Slower wage growth
Lower external demand due to trade tensions
Thus, inflation in Germany in January-May 2025 shows a steady downward trend, approaching the ECB’s target level. This creates the conditions for monetary policy easing and supports expectations of economic stability in the second half of the year.
Impact on monetary policy
The slowdown in inflation in Germany and other eurozone countries is strengthening expectations of interest rate cuts by the ECB. In May 2025, inflation in the eurozone stood at 2.1%, in line with the ECB‘s target.
The ECB is expected to decide at its meeting on June 4–5, 2025, to lower its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.0%. This will be the eighth rate cut since June 2024, when it stood at 4.0%.
At the beginning of 2025, the German labor market is showing resilience despite economic challenges, including slowing GDP growth and structural changes in industry. However, problems such as a shortage of skilled workers, demographic changes, and difficulties with integrating migrants remain.
Key indicators at the beginning of 2025
Total employment: According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, the number of people in employment in March 2025 was around 45.8 million, 0.1% less than in March 2024.
Unemployment rate: In March 2025, the unemployment rate was 3.7%, up 0.2 percentage points compared to the same month of the previous year.
Average working week: Despite high employment, the average number of hours worked per employee fell to a record low (excluding the pandemic year of 2020), raising concerns about labor productivity.
Professions in demand
In 2025, there will continue to be high demand in Germany for specialists in the following fields:
Medicine: doctors, nurses, pharmacists.
Information technology: software developers, cybersecurity specialists, data analysts.
Construction: engineers, architects, skilled workers.
Education: teachers, especially in primary schools and technical subjects.
Care sector: social workers, caregivers, especially in the context of an aging population.
The shortage of personnel in these sectors is due to both demographic changes and an insufficient influx of qualified specialists.
Migration plays a key role in maintaining Germany’s labor force:
Number of foreign workers: As of 2024, the number of foreign workers in Germany stood at 6.3 million, almost twice as many as ten years ago.
Main migrant groups:
Ukraine: Since the start of the conflict in 2022, Germany has taken in a significant number of Ukrainian refugees, many of whom are integrating into the labor market.
Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan: These migrant groups are actively participating in the economy, especially in sectors with labor shortages.
Integration challenges: Despite integration efforts, migrants face challenges including recognition of qualifications, language barriers, and limited access to educational programs.
Average wage
Average wage: In 2025, the average gross wage in Germany is around €4,200 per month.
Minimum wage: From 2025, the minimum hourly rate has been increased to €12.82.
Sectoral differences:
IT and technology: high wages reflecting a shortage of skilled workers.
Medicine: salaries vary depending on specialization and region.
Construction and care: salaries remain competitive, especially given the shortage of labor.
Forecasts and challenges
Germany faces a number of structural challenges in the labor market:
An aging population: According to forecasts, around 4.8 million baby boomers will retire by 2035, exacerbating the labor shortage.
Reduction in working hours: The average number of hours worked per employee is declining, which could have a negative impact on overall productivity.
Integration of migrants: Additional measures are needed to effectively integrate migrants into the labor market, including recognition of qualifications and language support.
In response to these challenges, the German government is implementing programs to attract skilled workers from abroad, improve working conditions, and promote employment among women and older workers.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/analysis-of-the-german-labor-market-at-the-beginning-of-2025-by-relocation/
The Ukrainian brand Smakuli (Lviv) — gluten-free cookies and snacks — is now available in German Rewe supermarkets, according to the Amal Berlin portal.
“We initially built our portfolio in Ukraine and have already implemented international quality and safety standards FSSC 22000, as well as AOECS certification, which certifies that allergens are carefully controlled in production. But that wasn’t enough – the process of entering the German market took almost 11 months,” the publication quotes Ruslana Rymarska, founder of the Smakuli brand and head of the Ukrainian Food Manufacturers Alliance (UFMA).
The Ukrainian company gained the opportunity to be represented in the Rewe network as part of the Startup Lounge project, which offers small businesses and startups the opportunity to introduce their products to the network.
According to Rymarska, work is currently underway to enter the Dutch and Swedish markets.
