The transition to a regime of managed exchange rate flexibility has not yet affected housing prices in the primary market, but it may change the behavior of potential buyers, and the rise in the dollar in the future may affect construction costs, according to Ukrainian developers interviewed by Interfax-Ukraine.
“We do not expect any sharp price fluctuations in the primary market. Pegging to the current US dollar exchange rate is a standard practice among developers. That is, in case of a significant depreciation of the hryvnia against the dollar, prices for square meters in the national currency equivalent will indeed increase. However, we do not see any reasons for this at the moment,” Anna Laevska, Commercial Director of Intergal-Bud, told the agency.
According to her, in the short term, the cost per square meter will be mainly influenced by the dynamics of real demand and the cost of construction.
At the same time, the rise in the dollar may lead to higher prices for contractors’ services and construction materials, said Dmytro Novikov, marketing director of City One Development.
“At present, we do not see any prerequisites for a rapid rise in prices in the primary real estate market. Even if the dollar rises in value, there will be no significant changes in the primary market in the near future. But it may have an impact in the future: if the cost of construction materials, which are directly tied to the currency, rises, the cost of construction will certainly increase,” he said.
Daria Bedia, Marketing Director of DIM Group, expressed a similar opinion.
“The pricing policy in the primary market is always closely linked to exchange rate fluctuations, as a large percentage of contractor services and the cost of construction materials, for example, are tied to the US currency. If the exchange rate rises significantly, it will create an additional burden on the cost of construction, which will push the price up,” the expert said.
At the same time, the rhetoric about the “rise in prices” against the background of a flexible exchange rate is nothing more than a marketing ploy and an attempt to persuade buyers to buy, she noted.
“There will be no rapid growth in this case, taking into account the constraining factors,” Bedia believes.
In case of a dollar appreciation, developers will be able to slow down the growth of costs only with the help of previously purchased stock of building materials, said Irina Mikhaleva, marketing director of Alliance Novobud.
“We can say for sure that with the further growth of the dollar, the cost of primary materials will also increase, primarily in hryvnia equivalent. The cost of construction will also increase, as manufacturers and suppliers of services and building materials will raise prices. The only way to slow down the growth of costs may be the stocks of building materials that were purchased earlier and are now at the disposal of builders,” she said.
Ms. Mikhaleva noted that the market reaction can be predicted only if the dollar gradually rises, without sharp jumps.
For their part, KAN Development believes that even a sharp fluctuation in the exchange rate will have a minor impact on the housing market.
“Even a sharp fluctuation in the exchange rate, if it affects the cost of real estate, will not significantly affect the housing market. If the hryvnia drops by 10%, it will strengthen later. Government mortgage programs will not be suspended and will continue to be issued in hryvnia. As for new housing, developers will continue to adjust to the market price in dollars. So far, we do not see any factors that could sharply collapse the hryvnia,” the developer commented.
According to the Kovalska Group’s press office, the transition to exchange rate flexibility may have an indirect impact on demand and may slow down the pace of recovery in the real estate market amid a general decline in purchasing power.
“For example, buyers who have savings in another currency and are ready to buy today may postpone their purchase decisions until the exchange rate is “better”, and buyers who are considering purchasing under government and partner programs such as eOselya, preferential mortgages, etc. may go to the secondary market in search of cheaper housing due to “uncertainty”,” the developer noted.
Susanna Karakhanyan, Head of Sales at Greenville Group, also spoke about the likelihood of changing the behavior of potential buyers.
“For those who are now thinking about buying a home, a window of opportunity is opening to invest before the exchange rate gains speed and starts to grow after the commercial one. This situation is likely to accelerate investors who are ready to pay the full price immediately,” the expert told the agency.
In addition, the situation has become unpredictable for those who planned to take out a long installment plan to buy a home.
“While the NBU exchange rate was unchanged for more than a year, investors could clearly calculate their payments. Now the situation will be unpredictable. Therefore, developers will try to take control of the situation: for example, to fix the exchange rate for a certain period in order not to lose a buyer and demonstrate loyalty,” Karakhanyan said.
As reported, on October 3, the National Bank of Ukraine switched to a regime of managed exchange rate flexibility.
Romanian authorities are introducing new rules for housing and food subsidies for Ukrainian refugees starting from May: now the money will be received only by those who have found a job, the EFE news agency reported.
In addition, those citizens of Ukraine whose children go to school in Romania will be able to count on the subsidies.
Under the new rules, the state will no longer pay housing costs to landlords who house refugees, and tenants will receive subsidies directly. Refugee camps will receive subsidies from the state as before. Details of these rules will be made public at a later date, the agency notes.
EFE explains that Bucharest has taken such measures against the background of a significant labor shortage in Romania. More than 3.8 million Ukrainians arrived in the country since February 2022, but the vast majority went to other European countries. According to Romanian authorities, about 110,000 Ukrainian refugees currently remain in the country, but less than 10 percent of them have a work contract.
Housing prices in the European Union fell by 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022, writes the Financial Times citing the EU statistical service Eurostat.
Housing became cheaper during the quarter for the first time since 2015. Prices fell in 15 of the 27 EU countries amid tightening standards and rising lending costs.
Denmark (6.5 percent) and Germany (5 percent) recorded the largest price declines.
“In the coming quarters, we expect further deterioration in the price dynamics in the housing market,” the newspaper quotes the words of economist Ani Heimann of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Over time, a lack of investment by construction companies will limit supply and stabilize prices, Heimann believes.
Data on the state of the market in some countries suggest that in early 2023, housing continues to get cheaper, said FT. For example, in the Netherlands, its value decreased by 1.5% in January-February.
The Ministry of Development of Communities and Territories of Ukraine has updated indirect housing construction cost indicators by region for the first time since the war, the ministry’s press service said, citing Deputy Minister Natalia Kozlovskaya.
The corresponding order Minregion signed on November 17, 2022.
Previously, since February 24, 2022, due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation, state statistics agencies suspended publication of statistical information needed to calculate the indirect cost of construction.
Given the importance and the need to address this issue, according to Kozlovska, the Ministry of Regional Development initiated a change in the procedure for determining and applying the indirect cost of housing construction by regions of Ukraine, which allowed to restore the process.
“During martial law to calculate the indirect cost of construction, the indicators calculated as of January 1, 2022, adjusted for the consumer price index provided by the State Statistics Committee,” – explained the deputy minister.
The updated figures are calculated as of October 1, 2022 and are published on the website of the Ministry.
The indirect indicators of housing construction costs by regions are used to determine the amount of public investment directed to the construction of housing for citizens in need of better housing conditions and state support in accordance with legislative acts of Ukraine, to determine the share of public investment in the construction of such housing and the amount of soft loans granted to certain categories of citizens to address housing issues.
The 12th stage of selection of recipients of preferential mortgage loans for internally displaced persons (IDPs) at the expense of a grant from the German lending institution KfW was held at the State Youth Housing Assistance Fund (Gosmolodzhile), the press service of the Ministry of Regional Development reported.
As a result, 500 winners will receive housing loans on favorable terms.
“Thanks to the German government for systematic support at such a difficult time for Ukraine. After all, the housing program is being implemented under an agreement on financial cooperation between the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the government of the Federal Republic of Germany. Therefore, another 500 families from internally displaced persons have the opportunity to receive a soft loan to purchase housing “, – Natalya Kozlovskaya, Deputy Minister for the Development of Communities and Territories, is quoted in a press release.
The selection of the winners of the program “Housing for internally displaced persons” was carried out using a random number generator using software (RandomPicker.com service).
Under the terms of the program, loans to IDPs will be provided for up to 20 years at 3% per annum, based on the standard housing area (21 sq. m of total area per person and an additional 10.5 sq. m per family).
As reported, on September 20, the State Youth Ministry held the 11th stage of selection of participants in the “Housing for internally displaced persons” program. 500 winners were selected.
To date, based on the results of the selections, 411 mortgage loans have been issued for a total of UAH 515.6 million.
29,961 applications have been registered in the open register of candidates for obtaining a loan under this program.
The program “Housing for internally displaced persons” is being implemented by the State Youth and the Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories.
The project is funded by a EUR25.5 million grant from the German government provided under an intergovernmental agreement through KfW.
Lending objects can be an apartment in a multi-apartment residential building or a single-apartment residential building, put into operation no more than 50 years ago or reconstructed later – 25 years ago.
You can register for participation in the program through the Diya public services portal or at the regional departments of the State Youth Housing.
At the time of the start of the program, there were about 1.5 million IDPs in Ukraine, of which about 120,000 used the digital certificate of an migrant in the Diya application.
The number of applicants for apartment rental in Kyiv in September for the first time during the full-scale war exceeded pre-war figures, the press service of the LUN new buildings portal reported.
According to data from the apartment rental app Bird, as of September 20, the number of applicants for apartments rental has reached 120% of the pre-war level. A month ago, in mid-August, demand reached the February level, and in July it was 90%.
According to the press service of LUN, in September, housing prices halted growth compared to the previous month. The median price for renting a one-room apartment in Kyiv fixed at UAH 9,000 in September, which is the same as in August. In July, the figure was UAH 8,000, while at the end of February, the median price for renting one-room apartments was UAH 13,000 per month.
The median price for renting two-room apartments in September slightly decreased compared to August – from UAH 15,000 to UAH 14,000. In July this figure was UAH 12,500, before the war – UAH 21,600.
At the same time, the median price for renting three-room apartments decreased from UAH 24,900 in August to UAH 20,200 in September, which is the same as in July. Until February 24, such housing cost UAH 46,100.
