The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts that gas imports will rise to $2.9 billion in 2025 due to Russia’s destruction of gas infrastructure, which will be partially financed by international partners.
“In the forecast period, production will gradually recover, but it will be insufficient to fully cover the domestic needs of the economy, including industry, housing and communal services, and households,” the National Bank said in its Inflation Report for April 2025.
The regulator expects gas procurement needs to gradually decline in 2026 to about $1.1 billion and fall to $0.4 billion in 2027.
“The continuing electricity deficit and losses in the gas production industry will hamper GDP recovery over the forecast horizon and increase the dependence of the energy and industrial sectors of the economy on imports, which will generate corresponding price risks that may be passed on to consumer prices,” the NBU added.
It is noted that significant risks of further destruction of energy infrastructure remain, and their realization could further dampen GDP growth and increase inflationary pressures. At the same time, the possibility of a faster recovery of the electricity or gas infrastructure or the introduction of new capacities remains a positive factor for the forecast.
As reported, during three years of full-scale invasion, Russia has carried out more than 30 massive complex attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities, causing billions of dollars in damage.
According to the former head of the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator (OGTSU), Serhiy Makogon, given the volume of its own production, Ukraine will need to import 5.5-6.3 billion cubic meters of gas by the start of the heating season on November 1, 2025, which will require approximately $2.5-3 billion. According to his estimates, by the start of the next heating season, it is necessary to have at least 9 billion cubic meters of reserves (excluding buffer gas) in underground gas storage facilities, as this year’s experience has shown that starting the season with lower reserves is extremely risky, since by the end of the season reserves fell to approximately 0.68 billion cubic meters.
In turn, Dmitry Abramovich, a member of the board and commercial director of the Naftogaz group, said at the end of March that Ukraine needs to import 4.5-4.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas by November 1 this year.
Since the beginning of this year, Naftogaz has contracted 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas: 800 million cubic meters were urgently imported at the beginning of the year, 400 million cubic meters will arrive in the country in preparation for next winter, and another 300 million cubic meters of LNG were purchased by Naftogaz from Poland’s ORLEN. The company is also negotiating with the government and international financial institutions to attract EUR 1 billion in financing to purchase more than 2 billion cubic meters of gas.
According to Makogon, guaranteed gas import capacity is approximately 50 million cubic meters per day, so it will take three months to import 4.6 billion cubic meters of gas and four months to import 5.6-6.3 billion cubic meters, assuming 100% capacity utilization, which is commercially difficult to achieve.
Thus, he believes that in order to import the necessary volumes by November 1, it is necessary to start importing significant volumes of gas as early as May.
In January-March 2025, imports of copper and copper products to Ukraine increased by 10.5% compared to the same period in 2024 to $46.42 million.
Exports of copper products increased by 17.7% to $21.35 million.
In March, imports amounted to $16.14 million, while exports amounted to $7.05 million.
For the whole of 2024, copper imports remained stable ($140.8 million), while exports increased by 22.4% to $88.24 million.
Copper is widely used in electrical engineering, pipe manufacturing, alloys, medicine and other industries.
Ukraine reduced imports of nickel and nickel products by 49.3% to $3.9 million in January-March 2025.
In March, imports amounted to $1.92 million.
Exports of nickel products tripled to $361 thousand compared to $94 thousand last year, including $328 thousand in March.
In 2024, imports increased by 73.7% to $26.73 million, while exports rose to $602 thousand (+13%).
Nickel is used in the production of stainless steel and for nickel plating. Nickel is also used in the production of batteries, powder metallurgy, and chemicals.
Naftogaz Group has contracted 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas since the beginning of the year: 800 million cubic meters were urgently imported at the beginning of the year, 400 million cubic meters will be delivered to Ukraine in preparation for the next winter, and another 300 million cubic meters of LNG were purchased by Naftogaz from Polish ORLEN.
“During the first quarter, Naftogaz managed to attract about EUR 430 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Government of the Kingdom of Norway, which will soon be used to purchase 1 billion cubic meters of imported natural gas,” said Roman Chumak, acting Chairman of the Board of Naftogaz of Ukraine. Roman Chumak, quoted by the group’s press service in a message on the Telegram channel.
According to him, the company is also negotiating with the government and international financial institutions to raise funding in the amount of EUR 1 billion to purchase more than 2 billion cubic meters of gas.
As reported with reference to the former head of the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator (GTSOU), Serhiy Makohon, Ukraine, given its own production volumes, needs to import 5.5-6.3 bcm of gas by the start of the heating season on November 1, 2025, which will require approximately $2.5-3 billion. According to his estimates, by the beginning of the next heating season, it is necessary to have at least 9 bcm of reserves in the UGS facilities (without buffer gas), as this year’s experience has shown that starting the season with lower reserves is extremely risky.
In his turn, Dmytro Abramovich, a member of the Board and Commercial Director of Naftogaz Group, said in late March that Ukraine needs to import 4.5-4.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas by November 1 this year.
According to Makohon, the guaranteed capacity for gas imports is approximately 50 million cubic meters per day, so it will take three months to import 4.6 billion cubic meters of gas, and 5.6-6.3 billion cubic meters in 4 months, and this is at 100% utilization, which is commercially difficult to achieve.
Thus, he believes that in order to import the necessary volumes by November 1, it is necessary to start importing significant volumes of gas in May.
In January-March 2025, imports of aluminum and aluminum products increased by 18.5% to $116.75 million, including $42.16 million in March.
Exports during this period increased by 35.5% to $31.7 million ($11.74 million in March). At the end of 2024, imports amounted to $446 million (+21.7%), while exports amounted to $124.4 million (+27.4%).
Aluminum is widely used as a structural material. The main advantages of aluminum are its lightness, stamping resistance, corrosion resistance, high thermal conductivity, and non-toxicity of its compounds. In particular, these properties have made aluminum extremely popular in the production of cookware, aluminum foil in the food industry, and packaging. The first three properties have made aluminum the main raw material in the aviation and aerospace industries (recently it has been replaced by composite materials, primarily carbon fiber). After the construction and production of packaging, such as aluminum cans and foil, the energy sector is the largest consumer of the metal.
The Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade (ICIT) imposed a final anti-dumping duty of 35.7% on imports of household matches to Ukraine on April 16.
According to the ICIT’s announcement in the Uryadovyi Kurier newspaper on Friday, the decision will enter into force 30 days after the date of publication of the announcement.
The ICIT reminds that the anti-dumping investigation was initiated by the decision of April 12 against imports of matches from India and Pakistan at the complaint of Ukrainian Match Factory LLC, which has a share of more than 50% in the total production of matches in Ukraine.
At the same time, it was found that during the investigation period (April 1, 2023 – March 31, 2024), imports of matches from India were carried out at dumping prices, while there were no imports from Pakistan.
The ICIT found that during the study period (January 1, 2021 – March 31, 2024), the volume of dumped imports decreased by 47.3% in absolute terms, while increasing by 27.8% in relation to the total production of the product in Ukraine and by 26.4% in relation to consumption.
In addition, the national producer’s production volumes decreased by 58.7%, the level of production capacity utilization by 58.7%, domestic sales by 58.1%, financial result from domestic sales in dollar terms by 229.4%, in hryvnia terms by 275.3%, and profitability from domestic sales by 390.4%, which was negative.
The number of production workers also decreased by 2.4%, wages by 32.1%, labor productivity by 57.7%, investment by 100%, and warehouse balances increased by 134.1%.
The Commission found that the Republic of India has a significant export potential, which indicates the likelihood of a significant increase in the volume of dumped imports of matches from this country in the future.
The anti-dumping measures are applied to matches, except for pyrotechnic products of heading 3604, classified under code 3605 00 00 00 according to the Ukrainian Classification of Goods for Foreign Economic Activity.
Ukrainian Match Factory LLC was founded in 1995, with production facilities located in Rivne region. The design capacity of the factory is 630 million boxes of matches per year. The products are supplied to all regions of Ukraine and abroad.
According to opendatabot, in 2024, the factory suffered a loss of almost UAH 26 million (3% more than a year earlier), while net income increased by 9.7% to UAH 175.2 million. At the same time, in 2022, it had a profit of UAH 38 million and revenue of UAH 373.5 million.
The founder of the company is listed as British Paxstone Limited, and the ultimate beneficiary is Maria Fursina from Kyiv.
