The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for January-July 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center and Director of Business Development and Marketing, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. Key aspects such as the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends are considered.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In the first eight months of 2024, Ukraine’s economy demonstrated steady positive dynamics amid recovery from the crisis. The National Bank of Ukraine estimated real GDP growth in the second quarter at 3.7% compared to the same period last year, which is in line with the April forecast. In July, this figure accelerated to 4.4% (compared to 3.1% in June and 3.5% in May), which was the result of an earlier and faster harvest.
“Ukraine’s economic successes in 2024 show that the country is beginning to overcome the consequences of the crisis. However, against the background of these indicators, it is important to take into account the growth of the negative foreign trade balance. This is a signal of the need to strengthen domestic production and increase export potential to avoid imbalances in the future,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the State Statistics Service, the negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-August 2024 increased by 6.5% compared to the same period last year and amounted to $17.613 billion. The main reason for the increase was a slowdown in export growth amid accelerated imports. At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves grew by 13.7%, reaching $42.33 billion, thanks to the attraction of long-term concessional financing from international partners.
“The growth of reserves to record levels is an important signal of confidence from international partners. However, it is important to realize that inflation remains a challenge. In August, inflation was 7.5% year-on-year after 5.4% in July and 4.8% in June. High inflation can significantly reduce the purchasing power of the population,” Urakin emphasized.
Inflation in August was 0.6% compared to July, when the price level remained unchanged. At the same time, the August price increase contrasts with the figures for the same month last year, when there was a 1.4% decline.
Ukraine’s public debt also changed in the second quarter of 2024. The total amount of state and state-guaranteed debt in hryvnia equivalent increased by UAH 243.7 billion, and in dollar equivalent by $1.1 billion. At the same time, the weighted average debt service rate decreased from 6.24% to 5.6% per annum, which indicates an increase in the efficiency of debt management.
“Effective public debt management, including lowering the interest rates on loans, is an important step for Ukraine’s financial stability. This allows the country to focus on strategic investments in infrastructure and social development,” the expert added.
Global economy
At the global level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) left unchanged its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 at 3.2%, but improved its expectations for 2025 to 3.3%. The main drivers of global growth remain emerging market countries, including China and India, whose economies are expected to grow by 5% and 7% respectively.
“The global economy continues to move forward, but faces key challenges, including inflation and high interest rates. Interestingly, the IMF has adjusted its expectations for oil prices – they are expected to rise slightly in 2024, but decline in 2025. This underscores the importance of the stability of commodity markets for developing countries,” said Maxim Urakin.
The European economy shows more modest results. According to IMF forecasts, the Eurozone’s GDP will grow by only 0.9% in 2024, while Germany’s economy will grow by only 0.2%.
“Europe is facing many challenges – from the energy crisis to the slowdown in industrial growth. For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to strengthen its position in trade relations with the EU by exporting competitive goods and services,” the expert emphasized.
Conclusion.
The economic indicators of Ukraine and the world in January-August 2024 show mixed results. Steady GDP growth and strengthened reserves are accompanied by inflationary risks and a negative trade balance. The global economy, while moving forward, is being held back by inflation and geopolitical factors.
“It is crucial for Ukraine to focus on creating an attractive investment climate, increasing labor productivity and developing export opportunities. This will be the key to sustainable economic growth and financial stability in the future,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
Maksym Urakin, Head of the Economic Monitoring project, PhD in Economics
More detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency “Economic Monitoring”.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1028834.html
The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for the first half of 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine, Ukraine’s real GDP growth rate slowed to 3.5% in May 2024, compared to 4.3% in April and 4.8% in March. This decline is mainly due to a drop in electricity generation, which affected the industrial sector and led to a decrease in production in the machine building and metallurgy sectors. At the same time, exports and demand in the construction industry supported positive economic growth.
“In June 2024, Ukraine’s public debt increased by UAH 200 billion, and inflation accelerated to 2.2%, which is generally in line with the NBU’s target range,” Maksym Urakin emphasized.
Global economy
The World Bank forecasts global economic growth of 2.6% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 2.4%. In 2025-2026, the growth rate is expected to further increase to 2.7%. For developing countries, the average annual GDP growth in 2024-2025 is projected at 4%, slightly lower than in 2023.
“In low-income countries, growth will accelerate to 5% in 2024, compared to 3.8% in 2023. For developed countries, growth is expected to reach 1.5% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025,” said the founder of Experts Club.
Maksym Urakin summarized that despite the decline in food and energy prices, core inflation will remain high in the medium and long term.
Ukraine’s foreign trade
In January-June 2024, Ukraine’s foreign trade balance in goods deteriorated by 24.4% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching a negative value of $13.606 billion. Merchandise exports increased by 0.3% to $19.589 billion, while imports increased by 9% to $33.205 billion. The main export items include agricultural products, metals, and machinery, while the main imports are energy and chemicals.
Conclusion.
The Ukrainian economy and the global economy are facing uncertainty. It is important to monitor changes in macroeconomic indicators to assess the prospects for further development and adaptation to new economic conditions.
Trends in the global and Ukrainian economies can be tracked via the Experts Club information and analytical channel – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club think tank and Director of Development and Commerce at Interfax-Ukraine, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the Center’s founder, Maksim Urakin, gross domestic product growth in May 2024 compared to May last year was approximately 3.7%.
“This figure is lower than the April and March levels, which amounted to 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively, due primarily to a drop in electricity generation. At the same time, the positive value of GDP change is related to exports and demand in the construction industry, as well as the recovery in metallurgy and machine building,” Urakin said.
Also, according to Urakin, the total public debt of Ukraine, after reaching a new historical high in April, decreased by $0.53 billion (0.3%) in May and amounted to $150.99 billion. Inflation in Ukraine increased to 0.6% in May compared to 0.2% in April in annualized terms, which is generally in line with the NBU’s target range.
Global economy
Maksim Urakin cited the World Bank’s (WB) forecast, according to which the global economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2024 (the earlier forecast assumed growth of 2.4%), and up to 2.7% in 2025-2026.
“In emerging economies, the average annual GDP growth rate in 2024-2025 is expected to reach 4%, which is slightly lower than last year. Growth in low-income countries will accelerate to 5% in 2024 compared to 3.8% in 2023. At the same time, developed countries are expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024 and by 1.7% in 2025,” the expert emphasized.
He also added that the growth prospects of the world’s poorest countries remain ambiguous.
“They face a heavy debt burden, reduced trade opportunities and other factors that negatively affect their economies. These countries need to find ways to stimulate private investment, reduce public debt, and improve education, healthcare, and basic infrastructure,” Urakin said.
According to the founder of the Experts Club, although food and energy prices have declined in all regions of the world, core inflation will remain high in the medium and long term.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-May 2024 increased 1.2 times compared to the same period of 2023 – to $10.716 billion from $8.882 billion, the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) said on Monday.
According to its data, exports of goods from Ukraine for the period increased by 1.7% to $16.832 billion compared to January-May 2023, while imports increased by 8.3% to $27.548 billion.
State Statistics Committee specified that in May compared to April this year, seasonally adjusted exports decreased by 1.3% to $3.442bn, while imports decreased by 3.9% to $6.089bn.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in May-2024 was negative at $2.647bn, while in the previous month it was also negative at $2.850bn.
The export-import coverage ratio for the first five months of 2024 amounted to 0.61 (0.65 in January-May 2023).
State Statistics specified that foreign trade operations were conducted with partners from 220 countries.
Earlier, the analytical center Experts Club and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3.
Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate slowed to 3.5% in May from 4.2% in April and 4.8% in March as a result of significant damage to electricity generation by Russian attacks, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IEPC) said in its Monthly Economic Monitor.
“Due to the damage to electricity generation, restrictions on business electricity supply have been applied. The IED estimates that the growth rate in the processing industry has slowed to 5% from 11%. At the same time, easier logistics supported the sector’s growth. We are talking, in particular, about machine building and metallurgy,” the IED noted.
According to the institute’s estimates, real gross value added (GVA) growth in the extractive industry increased by 2% due to fairly stable production of gas, iron ore, as well as construction materials.
Real GVA in transportation rose by almost 15%, up from 11% in April, in part due to the unblocking of western borders as well as the statistical base effect.
“In contrast to the weak performance of the “grain corridor” in 2023, the Ukrainian Maritime Corridor allows us to maintain high exports through seaports. At the same time, not only grain, but also iron ore and metallurgy products are brought in,” the IEI stated.
In May, as in the previous three months, consumer inflation was slightly above 3% (3.3%). The IEI believes that this reflected a good harvest last year (and for some products this year) and low export prices for Ukrainian agricultural products compared to last year, lower logistics costs for imports and significant competition for consumer demand.
According to the IEI, this has so far compensated for the increase in a number of business expenses due to rising wages, rising fuel and electricity costs, and the weakening of the hryvnia against the dollar.
It is expected that the balance between the factors restraining price growth and growth of suppliers’ and retailers’ expenses may change in the next months and lead to acceleration of inflation.
At the same time, moderate inflation expectations and relatively limited demand will further restrain price growth, so sharp price increases for most goods are not expected. The exception was the government’s increase in electricity tariff, which led to an increase in the consumer price index by more than 1%.
Monthly inflation accelerated to 0.6% in May due to a 10% rise in fruit prices. At the same time, egg prices continued to fall: they fell in price by 14% and almost halved compared to December last year. Prices for other goods rose by an average of 0.3%.
As reported, after Ukraine’s GDP growth of 5.3% in 2023, the National Bank expects it to slow down to 3% in 2024, while the government expects it to slow down to 4.6%. According to the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth for January-April this year amounted to 4.4%, while the NBU estimated it at 3.7%.
Earlier, the analytical center Experts Club and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3.
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According to preliminary estimates of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Ukraine’s international reserves in May decreased by 7.9%, or $3.4 billion, to $39 billion 033.8 million.
“This dynamics is due to the NBU’s foreign exchange interventions to ensure exchange rate stability and the country’s debt payments in foreign currency, which were partially offset by proceeds from the placement of foreign currency domestic government bonds (foreign currency government bonds) and from international partners,” the NBU website explained on Thursday.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of the macroeconomy in Ukraine and globally, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/P_-qI9k9Xjc?si=nIQFriaWTYRqdvkU
The National Bank clarified that in April, its net sales of foreign currency amounted to $3.08 billion, which is 30.7% more than in the previous month: The NBU sold $3.09 billion in the foreign exchange market and bought back $11.1 million in reserves.
“This is due to the growth in demand in the foreign exchange market, primarily against the backdrop of increased government spending due to the rhythmic flow of foreign aid in March-April,” the central bank explained the dynamics.
In addition, the current volume of reserves was affected by revenues in favor of the government and payments for servicing and repaying public debt.
In May, $143.1 million was transferred to the foreign currency accounts of the Cabinet of Ministers, while $412.3 million was allocated for the servicing and repayment of the public debt.
It is noted that Ukraine also paid $240.8 million to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The central bank added that the volume of reserves was positively affected by the revaluation of financial instruments, adding $216.1 million.
“The current volume of international reserves provides financing for 5.1 months of future imports,” the regulator said.
As reported, Ukraine’s international reserves in April decreased by 3.1%, or $1.4 billion, after reaching a historic high of $43 billion 762.7 million in late March due to record external receipts of more than $9 billion for the month.
On April 25, the NBU raised its reserve forecast for the end of this year to $43.4 billion from $40.4 billion and to $44.3 billion from $42.1 billion at the end of next year.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksym Urakin released a video analysis on the macroeconomy of Ukraine and the world in 2024, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/P_-qI9k9Xjc?si=nIQFriaWTYRqdvkU
