The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world economy for January-December 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the United Nations, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. Such key aspects as the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends were considered.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic performance
Ukraine’s economy showed moderate growth in 2024 despite ongoing challenges related to war and external economic factors. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the country’s real GDP grew by 2.9% year-on-year . Nominal GDP amounted to UAH 7.66 trillion, with a deflator at 12.3%.
“Despite the challenges associated with the war and unstable geopolitical situation, Ukraine has managed to hold macroeconomic stability. GDP growth of 2.9% is a signal of economic recovery and investor confidence,” Maksim Urakin noted.
Inflation remains a significant problem for the economy. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, annual inflation reached 12% in December 2024, accelerating from 11.2% in November . Consumer prices rose by 1.4% in December compared to November.
“The rise in inflation is a worrying signal. It is the result not only of internal factors, but also of external pressures: rising import prices, energy risks, as well as exchange rate fluctuations. The policy of the National Bank will play a crucial role in stabilizing the situation,” the expert explained.
The negative balance of foreign trade in goods in January-November 2024 increased by 3.6% compared to the same period of 2023, reaching $25.239 billion . Exports rose 16.5% to $38.423 billion and imports rose 11% to $63.662 billion.
“The increase in the negative trade balance suggests that imports are outpacing exports. Ukraine should focus on expanding its export potential and supporting strategic industries: agro-industrial complex, IT and machine building,” Urakin emphasized.
Ukraine’s international reserves reached $43.788 billion as of January 1, 2025, having increased by 9.7% in December.
“This is a positive signal. Reserves are growing due to receipts from international partners. This ensures macro-financial stability and stability of the hryvnia,” the expert said.
Global economy
According to IMF forecasts, global economic growth in 2024 amounted to 3.2% . However, geopolitical instability, trade wars and slowing growth in key economies continue to put pressure on the outlook.
“The global economy is recovering but remains vulnerable. Geopolitical risks, high interest rates and lower consumer demand in developed countries are the main factors of instability,” said Urakin.
The U.S. economy showed stable growth. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the country’s GDP grew by 2.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, helped by a rise in consumer spending
“Strong domestic demand is a driver of the U.S. economy. However, rising debt burdens and expensive credit could slow the momentum in 2025,” the economist said.
The Eurozone economy showed weak growth rates. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Eurozone GDP grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter .
India continues to show stable growth. According to the Indian government, the country’s GDP grew by 8.2% in 2024.
China’s economy grew 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, but the forecast for the year was lowered to 4.8% due to weak domestic demand and difficulties in the real estate sector.
“China needs to restart domestic consumption. Without demand stimulus, growth may slow down even more,” the expert emphasized.
Conclusion
Economic indicators of Ukraine and the world for 2024 show a mixed picture. GDP growth and positive signals in global markets are combined with inflation risks and foreign trade imbalances. The global economy is also under pressure from multiple uncertainties.
“For Ukraine, the key challenges remain structural reforms, increasing exports, modernizing infrastructure and actively attracting investment. This is the key to sustainable economic growth in 2025 and beyond,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
February 2025 was a month that reflected the current challenges and prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies. Geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and global changes in trade flows continue to affect economic development. Maksim Urakin, Founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, PhD in Economics, noted that Ukraine is showing signs of gradual economic recovery despite the difficult internal and external conditions.
Ukraine’s economy in February 2025
According to the National Bank, real GDP growth in January 2025 was 3.4% compared to the same period in 2024. The main drivers of growth were:
– Agriculture: the recovery in exports and the expansion of sales markets provided an increase of 6.5%.
– IT sector: IT services remained a key source of foreign exchange earnings, showing an increase of 10.4%.
– Construction: thanks to large-scale investments in infrastructure and international support, the sector grew by 4.2%.
“Amid the ongoing war and global turmoil, Ukraine’s economy is showing both signs of recovery and certain problems that need attention,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
In January 2025, annual inflation was 12.9%, which is higher than in 2024 (12%). This is due to rising food and energy prices. At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate remains relatively stable, fluctuating between UAH 39-40 per dollar, thanks to the support of international partners and export earnings.
“The decline in inflation is a positive signal for the economy, but an important task remains to increase the level of household incomes to compensate for the impact of past inflationary shocks,” Urakin emphasized.
In January 2025, Ukraine’s exports increased to $3.1 billion, driven by shipments of products and metals. However, imports also increased, mainly due to energy and equipment. The negative balance of foreign trade remains.
“Export dynamics show that Ukrainian companies are actively looking for new markets. Strengthening competitiveness and improving logistics could be the key to reducing the trade deficit,” Urakin said.
In January 2025, the state budget revenues of Ukraine amounted to UAH 282.8 billion, including UAH 128.2 billion for the general fund, which is 83.4% and 10.5% more than in January 2024, respectively. The main role in this was played by revenues from VAT and excise taxes, as well as international assistance. Ukraine’s international reserves increased to $40.1 billion, one of the highest levels in recent years.
“Financial support from international partners remains an important factor in macroeconomic stability. However, it is important to lay the foundation for independent economic growth now,” Urakin emphasized.
Global economic situation in February 2025
According to the IMF, global GDP is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, slightly lower than in 2024 (3%). The main reasons for the slowdown are the high cost of borrowing, uncertainty in the financial markets and a decline in global demand.
THE UNITED STATES: The economy is showing moderate growth at 2.3%, driven by robust domestic demand and investment in innovative industries.
European Union: The growth rate remains low at 1.1% due to the ongoing energy crisis and problems in the industry.
China: Growth slowed to 4.5%, due to the real estate crisis and a decline in exports.
India: Stable growth of 6.8%, remaining one of the fastest growing economies.
“The global economy is in a state of fragile balance. The main risks are related to geopolitical instability and high interest rates. However, countries with diversified economies are better able to cope with these challenges,” – Mr. Urakin said.
Oil: Oil prices in February 2025 are around $83 per barrel, having stabilized after the spikes of late 2024.
Gas: The European market continues to be under pressure, with an average gas price of €67 per MWh, due to persistent supply shortages.
Metals: Demand for steel and aluminum has declined, putting pressure on the export capacity of developing countries.
Central banks in major economies are keeping interest rates high to fight inflation. For example, the US Federal Reserve keeps its interest rate at 5.5%, which limits access to cheap capital but helps to reduce inflation.
Ukraine’s economy in February 2025 shows signs of stability and growth, but risks associated with inflation, foreign trade deficit, and dependence on international aid remain. The global economy is slowing down, which creates additional challenges for emerging market countries.
“It is important for Ukraine to continue attracting foreign investment, developing its export potential and strengthening its domestic market. Only systemic reforms and integration into the global economy will allow us to overcome the current difficulties and create the basis for long-term growth,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT0sE3ymMnQ
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Maksim Urakin, Founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, PhD in Economics, shared his observations on key indicators and risks for the Ukrainian and global economies as of November 2024.
Macroeconomic situation in Ukraine
According to Maksim Urakin, Ukraine’s economy continues to show slow growth.
“According to the National Bank, in October 2024, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 1.3% compared to October last year. This is worse than the September figures, but significantly better than the data for the summer months. However, there are negative trends in agriculture. This year’s harvest was significantly lower than last year’s, which hit the agricultural sector, one of the key drivers of the economy,” said Maksim Urakin.
The expert also pointed to a sharp deterioration in the foreign trade balance.
“The deficit of foreign trade in goods increased by almost 6% over the first nine months, reaching a frightening $20 billion. The main reasons for this were the growth of energy imports and the lack of labor at export-oriented enterprises,” Urakin added.
According to the expert, Ukraine’s national debt is also a cause for great concern.
“As of October 2024, the debt is already 6.4 trillion hryvnias, or about $155 billion. At the same time, international reserves have decreased by more than $2 billion and amount to $36 billion,” Urakin emphasized.
Global economy: challenges and prospects
At the global level, the key risks are associated with the growing debt burden.
“Global public debt already exceeds $100 trillion, which is 93% of global GDP. In the coming years, this figure will continue to grow, which puts additional pressure on the budgets of most countries,” Urakin said.
The economies of developed countries, according to the expert, show heterogeneous dynamics. The United States is showing steady growth, with its GDP increasing by almost 3% in the third quarter. At the same time, the eurozone economy is actually stagnating, and Germany has faced zero dynamics, the economist said.
At the same time, China continues to play a key role in the global economy. “In the third quarter, China’s GDP growth remained at 5%, but the pace slowed due to geopolitical tensions and internal problems, particularly in the construction sector,” said Maksim Urakin.
Looking to the future
Maksim Urakin expressed cautious optimism about the long-term prospects.
“The global economy is facing many challenges, including inflation, geopolitical conflicts and protectionism. However, despite all the difficulties, there are reasons to believe that growth will continue at least within moderate limits,” he concluded.
The expert also called for more active international coordination to overcome economic challenges.
“Stability requires joint efforts, and only through dialogue and cooperation will we be able to minimize risks,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grE5wjPaItI
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for January-July 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center and Director of Business Development and Marketing, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. Key aspects such as the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends are considered.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In the first eight months of 2024, Ukraine’s economy demonstrated steady positive dynamics amid recovery from the crisis. The National Bank of Ukraine estimated real GDP growth in the second quarter at 3.7% compared to the same period last year, which is in line with the April forecast. In July, this figure accelerated to 4.4% (compared to 3.1% in June and 3.5% in May), which was the result of an earlier and faster harvest.
“Ukraine’s economic successes in 2024 show that the country is beginning to overcome the consequences of the crisis. However, against the background of these indicators, it is important to take into account the growth of the negative foreign trade balance. This is a signal of the need to strengthen domestic production and increase export potential to avoid imbalances in the future,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the State Statistics Service, the negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-August 2024 increased by 6.5% compared to the same period last year and amounted to $17.613 billion. The main reason for the increase was a slowdown in export growth amid accelerated imports. At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves grew by 13.7%, reaching $42.33 billion, thanks to the attraction of long-term concessional financing from international partners.
“The growth of reserves to record levels is an important signal of confidence from international partners. However, it is important to realize that inflation remains a challenge. In August, inflation was 7.5% year-on-year after 5.4% in July and 4.8% in June. High inflation can significantly reduce the purchasing power of the population,” Urakin emphasized.
Inflation in August was 0.6% compared to July, when the price level remained unchanged. At the same time, the August price increase contrasts with the figures for the same month last year, when there was a 1.4% decline.
Ukraine’s public debt also changed in the second quarter of 2024. The total amount of state and state-guaranteed debt in hryvnia equivalent increased by UAH 243.7 billion, and in dollar equivalent by $1.1 billion. At the same time, the weighted average debt service rate decreased from 6.24% to 5.6% per annum, which indicates an increase in the efficiency of debt management.
“Effective public debt management, including lower interest rates, is an important step for Ukraine’s financial stability. This allows the country to focus on strategic investments in infrastructure and social development,” the expert added.
Global economy
At the global level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) left unchanged its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 at 3.2%, but improved its expectations for 2025 to 3.3%. The main drivers of global growth remain emerging market countries, including China and India, whose economies are expected to grow by 5% and 7% respectively.
“The global economy continues to move forward, but faces key challenges, including inflation and high interest rates. Interestingly, the IMF has adjusted its expectations for oil prices – they are expected to rise slightly in 2024, but decline in 2025. This underscores the importance of the stability of commodity markets for developing countries,” said Maxim Urakin.
The European economy shows more modest results. According to IMF forecasts, the Eurozone’s GDP will grow by only 0.9% in 2024, while Germany’s economy will grow by only 0.2%.
“Europe is facing many challenges – from the energy crisis to the slowdown in industrial growth. For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to strengthen its position in trade relations with the EU by exporting competitive goods and services,” the expert emphasized.
Conclusion.
The economic indicators of Ukraine and the world in January-August 2024 show mixed results. Steady GDP growth and strengthened reserves are accompanied by inflationary risks and a negative trade balance. The global economy, while moving forward, is being held back by inflation and geopolitical factors.
“It is crucial for Ukraine to focus on creating an attractive investment climate, increasing labor productivity and developing export opportunities. This will be the key to sustainable economic growth and financial stability in the future,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
Maksym Urakin, Head of the Economic Monitoring project, PhD in Economics
More detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of Interfax-Ukraine Economic Monitoring.
The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for January-July 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center and Director of Business Development and Marketing, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. Key aspects such as the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends are considered.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In the first eight months of 2024, Ukraine’s economy demonstrated steady positive dynamics amid recovery from the crisis. The National Bank of Ukraine estimated real GDP growth in the second quarter at 3.7% compared to the same period last year, which is in line with the April forecast. In July, this figure accelerated to 4.4% (compared to 3.1% in June and 3.5% in May), which was the result of an earlier and faster harvest.
“Ukraine’s economic successes in 2024 show that the country is beginning to overcome the consequences of the crisis. However, against the background of these indicators, it is important to take into account the growth of the negative foreign trade balance. This is a signal of the need to strengthen domestic production and increase export potential to avoid imbalances in the future,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the State Statistics Service, the negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-August 2024 increased by 6.5% compared to the same period last year and amounted to $17.613 billion. The main reason for the increase was a slowdown in export growth amid accelerated imports. At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves grew by 13.7%, reaching $42.33 billion, thanks to the attraction of long-term concessional financing from international partners.
“The growth of reserves to record levels is an important signal of confidence from international partners. However, it is important to realize that inflation remains a challenge. In August, inflation was 7.5% year-on-year after 5.4% in July and 4.8% in June. High inflation can significantly reduce the purchasing power of the population,” Urakin emphasized.
Inflation in August was 0.6% compared to July, when the price level remained unchanged. At the same time, the August price increase contrasts with the figures for the same month last year, when there was a 1.4% decline.
Ukraine’s public debt also changed in the second quarter of 2024. The total amount of state and state-guaranteed debt in hryvnia equivalent increased by UAH 243.7 billion, and in dollar equivalent by $1.1 billion. At the same time, the weighted average debt service rate decreased from 6.24% to 5.6% per annum, which indicates an increase in the efficiency of debt management.
“Effective public debt management, including lowering the interest rates on loans, is an important step for Ukraine’s financial stability. This allows the country to focus on strategic investments in infrastructure and social development,” the expert added.
Global economy
At the global level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) left unchanged its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 at 3.2%, but improved its expectations for 2025 to 3.3%. The main drivers of global growth remain emerging market countries, including China and India, whose economies are expected to grow by 5% and 7% respectively.
“The global economy continues to move forward, but faces key challenges, including inflation and high interest rates. Interestingly, the IMF has adjusted its expectations for oil prices – they are expected to rise slightly in 2024, but decline in 2025. This underscores the importance of the stability of commodity markets for developing countries,” said Maxim Urakin.
The European economy shows more modest results. According to IMF forecasts, the Eurozone’s GDP will grow by only 0.9% in 2024, while Germany’s economy will grow by only 0.2%.
“Europe is facing many challenges – from the energy crisis to the slowdown in industrial growth. For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to strengthen its position in trade relations with the EU by exporting competitive goods and services,” the expert emphasized.
Conclusion.
The economic indicators of Ukraine and the world in January-August 2024 show mixed results. Steady GDP growth and strengthened reserves are accompanied by inflationary risks and a negative trade balance. The global economy, while moving forward, is being held back by inflation and geopolitical factors.
“It is crucial for Ukraine to focus on creating an attractive investment climate, increasing labor productivity and developing export opportunities. This will be the key to sustainable economic growth and financial stability in the future,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
Maksym Urakin, Head of the Economic Monitoring project, PhD in Economics
More detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency “Economic Monitoring”.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1028834.html
The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for the first half of 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine, Ukraine’s real GDP growth rate slowed to 3.5% in May 2024, compared to 4.3% in April and 4.8% in March. This decline is mainly due to a drop in electricity generation, which affected the industrial sector and led to a decrease in production in the machine building and metallurgy sectors. At the same time, exports and demand in the construction industry supported positive economic growth.
“In June 2024, Ukraine’s public debt increased by UAH 200 billion, and inflation accelerated to 2.2%, which is generally in line with the NBU’s target range,” Maksym Urakin emphasized.
Global economy
The World Bank forecasts global economic growth of 2.6% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 2.4%. In 2025-2026, the growth rate is expected to further increase to 2.7%. For developing countries, the average annual GDP growth in 2024-2025 is projected at 4%, slightly lower than in 2023.
“In low-income countries, growth will accelerate to 5% in 2024, compared to 3.8% in 2023. For developed countries, growth is expected to reach 1.5% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025,” said the founder of Experts Club.
Maksym Urakin summarized that despite the decline in food and energy prices, core inflation will remain high in the medium and long term.
Ukraine’s foreign trade
In January-June 2024, Ukraine’s foreign trade balance in goods deteriorated by 24.4% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching a negative value of $13.606 billion. Merchandise exports increased by 0.3% to $19.589 billion, while imports increased by 9% to $33.205 billion. The main export items include agricultural products, metals, and machinery, while the main imports are energy and chemicals.
Conclusion.
The Ukrainian economy and the global economy are facing uncertainty. It is important to monitor changes in macroeconomic indicators to assess the prospects for further development and adaptation to new economic conditions.
Trends in the global and Ukrainian economies can be tracked via the Experts Club information and analytical channel – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
