Receipts of taxes, fees and mandatory payments to the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine, according to operational data, in April amounted to UAH 153.6 billion compared to UAH 164.3 billion in March and UAH 184.8 billion in February, such operational data (as of 16:00 on April 30) reported the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday.
According to its data, the most of all reduced receipts of payments from the State Tax Service – to 59.7 billion UAH from 105.7 billion UAH in March and 107.4 billion UAH in February, which is due to high payments in previous months of income tax, in particular, by banks, as well as advance payments.
It is pointed out that in April, income tax revenues amounted to only UAH 3.2 billion against UAH 60.1 billion in March and UAH 61.0 billion in February, but in April, part of its profit of UAH 38.64 billion was transferred to the budget by the National Bank, although the Ministry of Finance does not mention it in the summary.
As for other taxes, personal income tax and military levy increased to UAH 16.5 billion (UAH 15.7 billion) in April, rents to UAH 5.5 billion (UAH 1.4 billion), and excise tax to UAH 11.5 billion (UAH 9.2 billion).
Value added tax also increased to UAH 22.8 billion (UAH 18.0 billion): collected UAH 34.8 billion (UAH 29.0 billion), refunded – UAH 12.0 billion (UAH 11.1 billion).
Receipts from the State Customs Service increased in April to UAH 48.9 billion from UAH 45.8 billion in March and UAH 39.8 billion in February. As the head of the specialized parliamentary committee, Daniil Getmantsev, pointed out on Tuesday, about 2.5 billion hryvnias of additional revenue came from the unblocking of the Polish border over the past week.
The Finance Ministry pointed out that the monthly revenue estimate of the general fund of the state budget, according to operational data, was exceeded by 29.5% (+35 billion UAH), including by the State Tax Service – by 7.9% (+4.4 billion UAH), while the State Customs Service – by 14.5% (+6.2 billion UAH).
In addition, the general fund of the state budget received UAH 2.7 billion of international aid in the form of grants in April, compared to UAH 3.1 billion in March and UAH 31 billion in February.
“In general, according to operational data, at the end of April 2024, the general and special funds of the state budget received UAH 200.8 billion (UAH 225.9 billion in March and UAH 229.0 billion in February) of taxes, fees and other payments. In addition, about UAH 40.1 billion (in March – UAH 39.0 billion) in the form of ERUs was received by the Pension Fund and social insurance funds,” the ministry added, thanking taxpayers for your contribution to the support of the Ukrainian army and financial stability of the country.
Data on expenditures in April are not yet available.
As reported, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the state budget for 2024 with a deficit of UAH 1.57 trillion, or 20.6% of projected GDP. Revenues of the state budget-2024 are set at UAH 1.77 trillion (not taking into account possible grant aid), expenditures – UAH 3.36 trillion at an average annual exchange rate of UAH 40.7/$1.
State budget-2023 revenues amounted to UAH 2.67 trillion, of which grant aid amounted to UAH 0.43 trillion. Cash expenditures of the state budget for the past year exceeded UAH 4 trillion, and the deficit amounted to UAH 1.33 trillion at an average annual exchange rate of about 36.6 UAH/$1.
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub.
BUDGET, decreased in April, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, TAXES, UKRAINE, URAKIN
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for January-March 2024 amounted to 4.5% (+/- 1%) from 3.6% (+/- 1%) at the end of January-February.
Growth accelerated to 4.6% (+/- 1%) in March from 3.9% (+/- 1%) in February and 3.5% (+/- 1%) in January this year, according to an estimate released on the website of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.
“In March 2024, the trend of recovery growth continued, supported by the stable operation of the Ukrainian maritime corridor (stimulated activity in rail transport, metallurgy and metal ore mining), increased production capacity in the extractive industry, intensified production of mineral fertilizers, increased demand for construction materials, taking place against the backdrop of improved business sentiment … and revival of consumer activity …,” the Ministry of Economy pointed out.
The Ministry added that in March, almost all aggregated economic activities formed a positive contribution to the total GDP. Thus, exports of products of agricultural production and mining and metallurgical complex were provided by the Ukrainian Sea Corridor; and investment demand generated by the budget, as well as the increase in production capacity in the extractive industry formed a positive contribution of production types.
At the same time, it is pointed out that the dynamics of electricity production slowed down significantly in the context of significant rocket attacks in late March, which led to serious damage to energy infrastructure and will require a significant period of time and resources to restore it.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine on April 25 worsened its forecast for the country’s GDP growth this year from 3.6% to 3% after 5.3% last year.
When approving the draft state budget for the second reading in early November 2023, the government forecasted GDP growth of 4.6% this year.
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club youtube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, UKRAINE, УРАКІНА
The National Bank of Ukraine has raised its forecast of international reserves to $43.4 billion at the end of this year from $40.4 billion and to $44.3 billion at the end of next year from $42.1 billion.
“Compared to the previous forecast, the risk of insufficient international financing this year has significantly weakened, but the risks of rhythmicity of its receipt remain,” the NBU said in a press release on Thursday.
The central bank reminded that in March, about $9 billion was received from international partners, which allowed to increase international reserves to almost $44 billion.
In addition, in recent days, Ukraine has received positive news from the United States about the approval of a military and financial assistance package, and another tranche of EUR 1.5 billion has been received from the EU.
“In view of this, Ukraine can count on $38 billion of external budgetary assistance this year,” the NBU said.
According to its updated forecast, the estimate of the current account deficit this year has been downgraded from $16.9 billion to $20.2 billion, but next year it has been improved from $19.8 billion to $18.2 billion.
For more details on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world, GDP of major countries and other economic topics, please see one of the video analyzes of the Experts club think tank – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=Ymo-FlMFNGfLLdK-
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EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, international reserve, MACROECONOMICS, NATIONAL BANK
The number of registered unemployed people increased by 7.9% to 118.5 thousand in March, mainly due to the increase in the number of unemployed women for the fourth month in a row, including last month – by 7.6 thousand to 91.9 thousand.
According to the data of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), released on Friday, the number of unemployed also increased among people under 35 years old – by 2.3 thousand, up to 27.1 thousand.
It is specified that such a trend has lasted since January 2024.
As in the previous month, the largest number of unemployed citizens was recorded in the following regions: Zaporizhzhya (8.9 thousand), Kharkiv (8.6 thousand), Dnipropetrovsk (8.4 thousand), Sumy (7.3 thousand) and Poltava (6.4 thousand).
According to the central bank, the number of unemployed receiving benefits increased from 46.6 thousand to 51.2 thousand, while the number of vacancies also increased to 44.5 thousand from 41 thousand in February.
More details on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world, GDP of major countries and other economic topics were discussed in one of the video analysis of Experts club analytical center – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=Ymo-FlMFNGfLLdK-.
Subscribe to Experts club channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has clarified the forecast of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2024 under the World Economic Outlook (WEO): it expects it at the level of 3.2%, then during the third revision of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program in March estimated it in the range of 3-4%.
According to a publication on the Fund’s website on Tuesday, the economic growth forecast for 2025 was kept at 6.5%, up from 5.3% in 2023, according to the State Statistics Service.
The IMF also expects average annual inflation to slow to 6.4% this year from 12.9% last year and accelerate slightly to 7.6% in 2025.
Ukraine’s current account deficit forecast for this year and next year has been kept at the same level as in the third revision of the EFF program – 5.7% of GDP and 8.2% of GDP after 5.5% of GDP last year.
The Fund also reiterated expectations for unemployment to fall from 19.1% last year to 14.5% this year and 13.8% next year/
The IMF indicated that it forecast growth in the euro zone to accelerate to 0.8% this year and 1.5% next year after 0.4% last year, driven by the strong impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
“Stronger household consumption as the impact of the energy price shock fades and lower inflation supports real income growth is expected to support the recovery,” the Fund said, clarifying that the updated estimate is 0.1-0.2 percentage points (p.p.) worse than the previous estimate made in January.
Overall, the WEO said global economic growth, estimated at 3.2% in 2023, will continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025. The forecast for 2024 is revised upward by 0.1pc from the January estimate.
“These growth rates are low by historical standards, driven by both short-term factors, such as continued high borrowing costs and the withdrawal of fiscal support, and the longer-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, weak productivity growth, and increased geoeconomic fragmentation,” the IMF said.
Overall global inflation is expected to decline from an annual average of 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing countries.
The report also notes that the forecast for global economic growth in five years’ time (at 3.1%) is the lowest in decades. ” An alarming change is the widening gap between many low-income countries and the rest of the world. The growth forecast for these economies has been revised downward and the inflation forecast has been raised,” the Fund states.
Worse still, the report notes that compared to most other regions, estimates of long-term damage for low-income developing countries, including some large countries, are revised upward, indicating that the poorest countries are still unable to recover from the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis.
Its experts attribute the relatively weak medium-term outlook to lower GDP per capita growth, due in part to persistent structural frictions preventing the movement of capital and labor to productive firms. And worsening growth prospects in China and other large emerging market economies, given their growing share in the global economy, will have a negative impact on the development prospects of their trading partners.
According to the IMF, the risks to the global economic outlook are currently balanced. “On the downside, new price spikes triggered by geopolitical tensions, including from the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza and Israel, could, along with the resilience of core inflation while labor markets remain tight, lead to higher interest rate expectations and lower asset prices,” the WEO pointed out.
The fund added that geo-economic fragmentation could intensify, with higher barriers to the flow of goods, capital and people implying slower economic growth due to lower supply.
At the same time, it noted that artificial intelligence and stronger structural reforms than expected could boost productivity growth.
As the global economy approaches a soft landing, the priority for central banks in the short term is to ensure that inflation falls smoothly, avoiding both premature policy easing and excessive delay leading to lagging behind targets, the IMF also said.
“Multilateral cooperation is needed to limit the costs and risks associated with geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, accelerate the transition to green energy, and facilitate debt restructuring,” the Fund concluded.
More details on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world, GDP of major countries and other economic topics were discussed in one of the video analysis of Experts club analytical center – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=Ymo-FlMFNGfLLdK-.
Subscribe to Experts club channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP GROWTH, IMF, MACROECONOMICS, UKRAINE, URAKIN
The Estonian Ministry of Finance expects zero growth of the country’s economy at the end of the current year.
According to the forecast published by the Ministry, the reduction in external demand in the second half of last year was stronger than expected, and the expected turn to economic recovery did not take place. This will have the consequence of the lack of growth in the current year.
The Ministry of Economy notes that last year, the exchange of goods contracted globally, driven by the cooling of the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions. In developed countries and Europe, this was compounded by the rapid rise in interest rates, which was launched to curb inflation, and the deterioration in capital- and energy-intensive activities due to the energy crisis.
Nevertheless, according to the Ministry’s assessment, the factors restraining the development of the Estonian economy have been receding in recent years: price growth has slowed down, wage growth has continued, interest rates have gradually decreased, and there is no high unemployment.
The Estonian Ministry of Finance prepares a financial and economic forecast twice a year, in spring and summer.
Estonia’s GDP in 2023 has decreased by 3.1%. At the end of March 2024, the Bank of Estonia gave a forecast that the country’s GDP decline would slow down to “minus” 0.6% this year and the economy would grow by 3.2% in 2025.
Earlier Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s largest economies has changed over the past decades, more video analysis is available here –
https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3
Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ECONOMIC GROWTH, ESTONIA, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, URAKIN
