The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates a potential reduction in revenue from the sale of export products subject to the EU I Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the level of $100 million annually from 2026.
The estimates were given in the quarterly inflation report of the NBU.
The NBU said that Ukrainian exporters of carbon-intensive metallurgical products to the EU ($30-50 million per year) will suffer the lion’s share of the damage.
At the same time, the cumulative damage for exporters subject to CBAM is assessed as moderate.
The action of CBAM in the wording proposed by the European Commission will apply to the import of fertilizers, electricity, products of the cement industry and metallurgy (iron, steel, aluminum). These are, as noted in the EC, the sectors with the highest carbon dioxide emissions.
At the same time, the National Bank said that the income of Ukrainian companies may be reduced even more if the mechanism is extended to other sectors of the economy, indirect CO2 emissions are added, free emission quotas in the EU are rapidly eliminated and the transition period is reduced.
Such initiatives, as is known, are put forward by a number of members of the European Parliament. The law on the introduction of the mechanism can be adopted already in the middle of this year after parliamentary consultations.
To minimize the negative impact of CBAM, the NBU advises to focus on the development of a national emissions trading system (ETS), which, in turn, will allow the collected funds to be directed to eco-modernization.
The conclusions of the National Bank differ significantly from the estimates of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE). KSE experts predict that the introduction of CBAM by the European Union could lead to an annual reduction in the income of Ukrainian companies up to EUR 396 million annually during 2026-2030. Thus, Ukraine’s GDP will decrease by 0.08% per year.
The number of citizens’ complaints to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in July-September 2021 amounted to 29,000, which is 13.7% more than in the previous quarter (25,500), according to a report on work with complaints from consumers of financial services, published on the regulator’s website on Wednesday. At the same time, number of written complaints in the third quarter increased by 18%, to 11,340, and the number of calls to the call center – by 10%, to 17,400.Most of the complaints from consumers relate to the work of nonbank financial institutions: 8,720 written complaints and 5,750 calls to the call center.One of the main reasons for the growth in the number of applications is Law No. 1349-IX on the regulation of collection activities, which came into full force on July 14, 2021.“It clearly outlined the rights of consumers of financial services and bans on the work of debt collectors. That is why citizens began to complain more often to the National Bank about the violation by debt collectors and lenders when settling overdue debts,” the central bank said.According to the report, debt management and unethical behavior of debt collectors and credit institutions is the most common topic of both written complaints (47% of the total) and calls to the call center (19%).In addition, in their written requests, consumers asked questions about loans from nonbank financial institutions (23%), relations on compulsory types of insurance (8%), bank loans (7%).At the same time, the topical topics of calls to the call center were loans from nonbank financial institutions (14%), issues of banknotes and coins (11%), relations under bank loan agreements (7%).According to the NBU, 45% of written requests had signs of violation of the rights of consumers of financial services.Among the problematic issues in the work of nonbank financial institutions is the accrual of interest over the loan period, fraud using lost consumer documents, problematic issues with insurance companies, tough methods of collecting bad debts.Among the problematic issues identified in the work of banks are also cases of fraud with customer accounts, the imposition of additional services, tough actions to collect bad debts.
The international reserves of Ukraine as of September 1, 2021, according to preliminary data, amounted to $31.614 billion (in equivalent), which is 9.2% more than at the beginning of August this year ($28.951 billion) according to the data of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
“As of September 1, 2021, Ukraine’s international reserves, according to preliminary data, amounted to $31.614 billion (in equivalent). This volume of reserves is a record over the past nine years … In August, the reserves increased by 9.2% due to, first of all, the receipt of funds in the amount of 1.928 billion special drawing rights (SDR) within the general allocation from the IMF,” the report says.
As the National Bank notes, the dynamics of the August reserves was affected by the operations of managing the state debt: the total volume of payments for servicing and repaying the state and state-guaranteed debt in foreign currency amounted to $ 188 million (in equivalent).
It is specified that $ 33.7 million was spent on servicing and redeeming external bonds, $ 18.2 million – on servicing and redeeming government domestic loan bonds, the rest – for fulfilling other government obligations in foreign currency.
At the same time, in August, foreign exchange receipts in favor of the government amounted to $ 8.8 million (in equivalent).
The dynamics of reserves was also influenced by the operations of the NBU in the interbank market. In particular, the central bank replenished its reserves by $ 348.3 million due to the fact that for most of August supply on the market prevailed over demand.
In addition, the dynamics of the indicator was influenced by the revaluation of financial instruments: last month their value decreased by $ 31.6 million (in equivalent), according to the National Bank.
The regulator noted as of September 1, 2021 the volume of international reserves covers 4.4 months of future imports – this is enough to fulfill the obligations of Ukraine, the current operations of the government and the NBU.
In addition, the NBU clarified that Ukraine’s net international reserves in August increased by $ 2.836 billion, or 15.3%, to $ 21.364 billion.
The public and guaranteed debt of Ukraine after growth last year from 50.3% of GDP to 60.8% of GDP in 2021 will decrease to 55.8% of GDP, this updated forecast is contained in the inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
“Compliance with a balanced fiscal policy in the context of economic growth and low exchange rate volatility will allow to resume the decline in the level of government and government-guaranteed debt, as well as keep it below 60% of GDP,” the NBU said.
According to its estimates, in the first two months of 2021, the debt has already decreased to 58.4% of GDP, amounting to UAH 2.55 trillion in absolute terms (36.5% in national currency and 63.5% in foreign currency).
The National Bank said that in 2021 the government will still maintain a significant budget deficit (according to NBU estimates 4% of GDP, UAH 200.2 billion) to revive the economy and overcome the pandemic.
“However, in the future, in the context of sustainable economic growth, government incentives will decrease, which will gradually improve the debt position. Accordingly, in 2022-2023, the deficit is expected to decrease to 3% of GDP (UAH 165 billion in 2022 and UAH 181.9 billion in 2023),” the bank said in the report.
According to it, the National Bank does not expect financing of NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy and additional capitalization of state-owned banks in the next three years. The volume of government guarantees, according to its estimates, will decrease from UAH 80 billion in 2021 to UAH 34.4 billion in 2022 and UAH 36.8 billion in 2023.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has for the first time defined the list of critical infrastructure facilities in the banking system, which includes 13 banks, the press service of the regulator said on Friday.
The list includes PrivatBank, Oschadbank, Ukrgasbank, Ukreximbank, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, FUIB, Alfa Bank, OTP Bank, TAScombank, Universal Bank, UkrSibbank (all are based in Kyiv), Pivdenny Bank (Odesa) and A-Bank (Dnipro).
The list was approved by NBU Board decision No. 148 dated April 20, 2021 on critical infrastructure facilities in the banking system of Ukraine.
The facilities of critical infrastructure include banks, the stable operation of which ensures the stability of the banking system, it is essential for the economy and security of the state, the functioning of society, and which are of significant public interest. In particular, these are banks that are included in the list of systemically important banks, and banks in which the state directly or indirectly owns more than 75% of their charter capital.
State-run PrivatBank topped the rating of the most profit-making Ukrainian banks in January-February 2021, having declared UAH 1.31 billion of net profit, while the largest loss was recorded by Pravex Bank – UAH 34.4 million.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the second position in the list of the most profitable banks was taken by Raiffeisen Bank Aval (UAH 758.705 million), the third by FUIB (UAH 676.133 million). Universal Bank with UAH 472.044 million) was fourth, and Alfa Bank with UAH 426.941 million was fifth.
According to the central bank, BTA Bank was second in terms of loss (UAH 7.68 million), the Ukrainian Bank for Reconstruction and Development (UBRD, UAH 6.671 million) third, AP Bank (UAH 6.389 million) fourth, and Unex Bank (UAH 4.682 million) fifth.
During this period 63 out of 73 banks operating in Ukraine saw profit.
According to the statistics of the National Bank, in terms of total assets, PrivatBank (UAH 561.062 billion) retained the first place in the rating in terms of total assets (UAH 561.062 billion), Oschadbank was second (UAH 279.702 billion), Ukreximbank (UAH 237.061 billion) was third, Ukrgasbank (UAH 149.524 billion) was fourth and Raiffeisen Bank Aval (UAH 118.33 billion) was fifth.
NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE, PRIVATBANK, RAIFFEISEN BANK AVAL, UKRAINIAN BANKS
