Today, Donald Trump will officially begin his term as the 47th President of the United States of America. His possible actions and strategies in the international arena were the main topic of discussion at a meeting of experts organized by the Atlantic Council and Experts Club. Brian Mefford, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, and Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club, discussed key issues that will affect the geopolitical situation in the world, including Ukraine.
Brian Mefford noted that Trump’s first months in office will be focused on resolving domestic issues, such as the confirmation of his cabinet members in the Senate. However, the expert emphasized that Ukraine will remain an important issue in US foreign policy.
“Ukraine already has a special envoy, General Kellogg. Although his visit to Kyiv was postponed, it shows that Ukraine remains a priority. Its security is crucial for stability in the region,” Mr. Mefford said.
One of the key topics of discussion was Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which was first promised at the Bucharest Summit in 2008. According to Brian Mefford, this decision could have prevented many of the current problems.
“It was a serious mistake at the time. Russia used this uncertainty: first in Georgia and then in Ukraine. Now, because of the war on its own territory, the NATO issue for Ukraine is being postponed indefinitely. At the same time, there is a need for long-term security guarantees. Ukraine needs modern weapons, so the United States and European partners must remain reliable allies of Ukraine,” he explained.
At the same time, according to the expert, the issue of NATO funding became one of the most discussed during Trump’s first presidency, when he called on European countries to increase their defense spending.
“The United States spends more on defense than the next nine countries combined. Trump was right to insist that European countries spend at least 2% of GDP on defense. And now these requirements are being met. Increasing defense spending in Europe is in everyone’s interest. The alliance remains a powerful tool for ensuring stability,” Mr. Mefford emphasized.
According to him, the US withdrawal from NATO is currently an unlikely scenario.
Mefford suggested that the Trump administration will continue its tough economic policy towards China, including trade wars.
“China does not follow fair rules in international trade. Support for Taiwan will remain unchanged, as the United States has strategic interests in the region. Although China often demonstrates strength, its economy is on the verge of recession and its military power is exaggerated,” he explained.
The expert also touched upon the issue of sanctions against Russia, which remain an effective tool of international pressure.
“Trump imposed more sanctions against Russia during his previous term than Obama did. Their mitigation is possible only if the war ends. This is a long-term mechanism that cannot be ignored,” emphasized Mefford.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, in turn, emphasized the importance of Donald Trump’s election for Ukraine and the world and reminded of other important elections for Ukraine and the region in 2025:
“For Ukraine, partnership with the United States is crucial. However, we need to be prepared for different scenarios and strengthen our economic resilience and diversify our foreign policy, given the very important elections this year in Germany, Poland, Romania, Moldova, and Canada. The world is becoming very dynamic in the future,” said Maxim Urakin.
The experts’ analysis showed that Trump’s policy toward Ukraine will be shaped by both internal and external factors. At the same time, Ukraine’s role in global security will only grow, and international support will remain critical for security on the European continent.
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The Hellenic Republic supports Ukraine’s acquisition of NATO membership when the Alliance members agree and the conditions are met, as stated in the declaration of the NATO Vilnius Summit, the Joint Declaration of Ukraine and Greece on Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic Integration has said.
According to the text of the document, Ukraine and the Hellenic Republic welcome Ukraine’s significant achievements in advancing on the path of Euro-Atlantic integration, in particular in achieving compatibility with NATO, as demonstrated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield, and reaffirm their commitment to strengthening joint efforts in support of Ukraine’s integration into the Alliance and the implementation of NATO standards.
It is noted that Greece will continue to support the Alliance’s strong and effective political and material support to Ukraine, aimed at ensuring Ukraine’s ability to effectively defend its territory on land, at sea and in the air.
The Hellenic Republic will continue to provide military, technical, defence and humanitarian support to Ukraine and commits to participate with international organizations, allies and partners in the reconstruction and rebuilding of Ukraine after the war.
Greece supports Ukraine’s acquisition of NATO membership when Alliance members agree and conditions are met, as stated in the NATO Vilnius Summit declaration.
In addition, the parties declare that Ukraine’s security is vital to the stability of the Euro-Atlantic region and fully support the Ukraine-NATO Council as a platform to further strengthen and expand ongoing cooperation to help realize Ukraine’s path to the Euro-Atlantic family.
In turn, it is noted that Ukraine highly appreciates all the important practical assistance provided by the Hellenic Republic and the people of the Hellenic Republic to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
The full text of the Joint Declaration is available on the website of the Office of the President of Ukraine.
Turkey, as the NATO summit in Vilnius showed, will continue to be a strong partner of the alliance in addressing common security challenges, including the geographical expansion of the bloc, said Fahrettin Altun, head of the Turkish presidential administration’s communications department.
“Turkey is actively engaged in confronting emerging challenges by supporting NATO’s strategic orientation. In the future, Turkey will continue to be a staunch ally and a crucial partner in the alliance’s new initiatives,” he wrote in an article for Middle East Eye magazine.
He added: “Turkey believes that the expansion of the alliance is the key to lasting peace and stability in the world.”
The official clarified, however, that Turkey supports NATO’s geographical expansion “not against a specific country, but to turn the alliance into a comprehensive security organization that will help achieve stability.”
Alutn said that Turkey, which controls the geographic land bridge between East and West and the waterways to the Black Sea, “it is crucial to be in the Western camp.”
“Turkey’s long and deep commitment to NATO has protected Europe. Its continued engagement is vital to the security of the continent,” he wrote.
The official assured that “Ankara will continue to be NATO’s partner in addressing the alliance’s common challenges,” adding that this will be done “in accordance with its national security requirements.”
North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies are not inviting Ukraine to membership talks, but have promised to do so when they agree to it and allow conditions.
This is the content of the final communiqué of the meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization heads of state and government to be approved, several informed sources told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
They claim that the wording will sound as follows: “We will issue an invitation when the allies agree and conditions are met.”
The sources also say that the allies have agreed to exclude the Membership Action Plan from the conditions for Ukraine. This wording can be written as follows: “Ukraine’s path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has gone beyond the need for a Membership Action Plan.”
At the same time, the sources do not rule out that the text could be changed.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President of Poland Andrzej Duda have agreed to coordinate their actions ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius.
“At the events in Lutsk, Andrzej Duda and I had a brief but very substantive discussion about the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius. We agreed to work together to get the best result for Ukraine,” Zelenskyy wrote on Twitter.
For his part, the Polish president also posted on Twitter: “Today in Lutsk, Ukraine, we met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to reaffirm friendship in the face of a difficult history and to hold final consultations before the NATO summit in Vilnius, which begins in two days.”
As Duda emphasized, “effective support for Ukraine in its aspirations for membership in the Alliance is very important for Poland.”
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed on Tuesday that the alliance countries have decided to extend his term for another year, until October 2024.
“I am honored that NATO allies have decided to extend my term as secretary general until Oct. 1, 2024,” Stoltenberg tweeted.
The Associated Press reported last week that NATO nations had given a tentative agreement to extend Stoltenberg’s term for another year.
Earlier it became known that none of Stoltenberg’s possible successors as head of the alliance, such as Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, had gained overwhelming support among the North Atlantic Alliance’s 31 member states. At the same time, Stoltenberg assured in June that he was not seeking an extension of his term in office.
Stoltenberg has been secretary general of the alliance since 2014. His term has already been extended twice. Again it expired in 2022, but because of the Ukrainian crisis he kept the post until the end of September 2023.
There is no official election of the NATO Secretary General; the Alliance appoints him based on the consensus of all member countries of the alliance.
