The world is entering a phase of political change in 2025. Important elections will take place in different countries, the results of which can significantly affect both geopolitics and internal processes of states. In a new YouTube video, Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, and Oleksandr Poznyi, co-founder of the Active Group research company, analyze the main political events of the year and the possible consequences for Ukraine.
After the scandalous cancellation of the presidential election results, a second vote is scheduled for December 2024 in Romania. The election brought unexpected results, and the winner of the first round campaigned exclusively on TikTok. This sparked discussions around the world, as it was the first time a social network played a key role in the political process. However, the country’s Constitutional Court canceled the election results due to the detected Russian influence, and a new vote is scheduled for May 2025.
“The situation in Romania is unprecedented, as the Constitutional Court has annulled the first round of elections. This may cause political turbulence, which will affect the country’s foreign policy,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
In his turn, Oleksandr Poznyi emphasized that this case proves that influence technologies are changing, and social networks such as TikTok can become a key tool for voter mobilization.
“This is a dangerous signal for Ukraine as well, because we see that political forces are beginning to use this platform as a way to manipulate public opinion,” added Pozniy.
On February 23, early elections to the Bundestag will be held after the coalition collapse in 2024. The main struggle will be between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), but the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has anti-immigration and pro-Russian rhetoric, may also play an important role.
“The struggle between the CDU and the SPD will be intense. If the AfD gets second or even first place, it could change Germany’s policy towards Ukraine. So far, the mainstream parties are not ready to form a coalition with them, but their influence is growing,” Maksym Urakin believes.
The parliamentary elections in Moldova will also determine the country’s foreign policy course.
“Moldova is facing a choice between the European path and the pro-Russian vector. This choice will have a significant impact on regional policy. The elections will decide whether the country will continue its European course under the leadership of President Maia Sandu or whether the Socialists, represented by Igor Dodon, will be able to regain power,” said Poznyi.
He also emphasized that Moldova is a parliamentary republic, and even if Sandu wins the presidential election, it does not guarantee that her political force will retain a majority.
On May 18, Poles will elect a new president, as Andrzej Duda cannot run for a third time. Experts believe that this is one of the most important elections for Ukraine, as Polish support is strategic. The tense confrontation between Law and Justice and the opposition will determine the future of Polish-Ukrainian relations. The Ukrainian issue will play an important role, but voters are more focused on domestic issues, such as the situation with Polish farmers who are unhappy with Ukrainian grain imports.
“Candidates will have to maneuver between supporting Ukraine and protecting national interests,” says Mr. Poznyi.
Serbia is one of the few countries in Europe that continues to balance between the EU and Russia. President Aleksandar Vucic has twice hinted at the possibility of early elections in 2025, especially amid protests and the escalating situation in Kosovo.
In October, elections will also be held in Canada and Argentina, which could change the foreign policy courses of these countries. On September 8, Norway will vote, and on November 16, Chile will vote.
“The elections in Canada are important for Ukraine, as further assistance will depend on them. It is also worth following the processes in Norway, which supports European security,” summarizes Maksym Urakin.
The year 2025 promises to be full of important political events that could change the international agenda. Ukraine must take into account the possible consequences of elections in strategic countries and prepare for new challenges on the global stage.
For more details about the elections to be held this year, please watch the video:
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The survey, conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Experts Club think tank, revealed citizens’ attitudes to various aspects of social and economic life in Ukraine, including the initiative to refund part of the cost of Ukrainian goods, the government’s influence on business, the level of trust in law enforcement, financial stability of citizens, and forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate.
A significant proportion of respondents (44%) have heard of the initiative to refund the cost of purchasing Ukrainian goods, with opinions divided on its impact on living standards. Most respondents believe that the government will increase taxes to finance this initiative.
According to Andriy Yeremenko, founder of the sociological research company Active Group, this raises concerns among the population, as most are not ready for an increase in the fiscal burden.
The study also revealed a deep distrust of government institutions (57% of citizens) and law enforcement agencies (62%) in the context of relations with business, in particular due to the lack of transparency and efficiency of their work. The majority of respondents believe that the state hinders rather than helps business to develop, and this trend has increased compared to previous months.
A significant number of Ukrainians (up to 60%) are experiencing financial difficulties, including increased debt and lack of savings for a rainy day. Respondents also expressed concern about the future of the hryvnia exchange rate, with the majority (55%) expecting it to fall.
In the context of utility bills, the vast majority (67%) of respondents believe that the level of tariffs is too high, which further emphasizes the general dissatisfaction with the financial situation and government policy in this area.
According to Oleksandr Poznyi, Director of Active Group, these results demonstrate the serious challenges faced by Ukrainian society in the context of the war and the current economic situation.
Earlier, Maksym Urakin, the founder of the Experts Club think tank, noted that in 2024 Ukraine’s public debt may exceed GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability in the country.
For more details, please see the video at the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hkvHhyzGLQ
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ACTIVE_GROUP, ANDRIY_EREMENKO, ECONOMY, EXPERTS_CLUB, OLEXANDR_POZNYI, POLITICS, SOCIOLOGY, TAXES, URAKIN
Japan is urgently prepared to provide support to Ukraine with a loan of at least $100 million as a sign of support for it in the conditions of the buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan said following a telephone conversation between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“Prime Minister Kishida informed that Japan is urgently prepared to provide support with a loan of at least $100 million based on the request of the Ukrainian side, and President Zelensky expressed deep gratitude for this,” the Japanese Foreign Ministry said in a report on the website after the February 15 conversation.
Japan has been paying close attention to the move to strengthen Russian troops around the Ukrainian border. Japan has consistently supported Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan said.
“The two leaders agreed to work together to ease tensions through diplomatic efforts,” the ministry said in the statement.
Ukraine and Turkey will reach an agreement on signing an agreement on a free trade area (FTA) in the next two days, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.
“We are getting ready to give a powerful economic signal, to sign an FTA agreement with Turkey already within these two days. Our groups are working. I am sure that we will agree,” he said, speaking at the Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has announced the success of infrastructure development in Ukraine, as well as digitalization, the press service of the president of Ukraine has reported.
“In these two and a half years, we have started the digitization of the state. We are number one in Europe today. And the Servant of the People party was involved in that as well,” the presidential press service quoted Zelensky as saying when speaking in Truskavets on Saturday, where a visiting session of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction was taking place.
Zelensky added that Ukraine is also the first in Europe in terms of road construction now. “Statistically, we build the most per month. Number one in Europe!” the President noted.
The Head of State also noted the liquidation of the State Architectural and Construction Inspectorate.
“So be a little proud of yourself and the difficult path. When we talk about land reform, there are many questions about how slow it is. But I believe that this is a challenge and a victory, on which I want to congratulate you,” the President said.
He noted that there are many challenges in the field of medicine in the country, which was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. “But today I see a medical team. We have elected a minister, a committee is working, and we are ready for challenges,” Zelensky stressed.
The President also stressed that the Office of the President and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have done a lot for Ukraine’s international agency, and this is the most important victory this year.
“A lot yet not enough. Why not enough? I will explain. We do not have time to expect that we will be taken to the European Union: ‘let’s wait another five years.’ You know we have a war. I do not want to complain. I think we are powerful. And today our policy is ‘brazen’. And I am convinced that without a strong international policy, without such ‘boldness’ no one will see Ukraine’s steps forward,” he said.
In addition, the presidential press service noted that working groups with the participation of deputies and ministers (eight clusters) on the details of the Plan of Transformation of the country initiated by him in the following areas: military security and international relations; energy independence and “green” transformation, human capital, technological development and market transformations, infrastructure and local development, food hub, digital hub and rule of law.
“These clusters contain goals and KPIs for relevant areas until 2023, projects and reforms to be implemented, and laws to be enacted,” the message reads.
DIGITALIZATION, INFRASTRUCTURE, POLITICS, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE, PRESIDENT ZELENSKY
Decentralization in Ukraine is far from completion, considers the local government expert, director of the Practical Policy Program of the Institute of Political Education, Alexander Solontay.
“Today we are far from having a decentralized country, we have done only the first basic steps, but we are moving towards this”, – Solontay claimed in comments on features and problems of the decentralization process in Ukraine
on the Youtube channel “Club of Experts“.
In the expert’s opinion, now has arisen a situation in which the implemented reforms had led to greater autonomy of urban and rural communities. At the national level, however, politicians are chosen by a paternalistic population. These policies support communities’ autonomy on the one hand and, on the other, want the Centre to continue to provide guidance locally.
“From above, the mechanisms for interaction with autonomous communities have not yet been worked out. The politicians act in the old way – to pass laws, to direct an order, to allocate funds, and so on. It’s vertical management. How to manage in a new system, where the bottom is independent and the top has limited possibilities, authorities have not yet learned», – says the expert.
Solontay noted that in our environment, where the shadow economy and corruption have not been overcome, the law enforcement agencies are under-reformed and the local power is increasingly independent, a systemic crisis has arisen in interaction of Center and regions.
«Whatever situation would appear in the country, we are always condemned to conflict between authorities and local self-government», – the expert summarized.
DECENTRALIZATION, EXPERT, EXPERTSCLUB, POLITICS, SELF-GOVERNMENT, SOLONTAY
