At the end of July, Ukraine’s Danube port cluster sharply increased its intake of grain carriers amid a slowdown in operations at the Greater Odessa ports; however, a critical drop in water levels on the Danube could limit the capacity of this alternative export route.
According to the brokerage firm Spike Brokers, the number of grain railcars heading to the Danube ports increased nearly sevenfold over the week—from 167 to 1,141 thousand railcars. The average daily unloading rate rose by 17 railcars to 51 railcars per day.
At the same time, the number of grain railcars heading toward the ports of Greater Odessa fell by approximately 70%—to a record low of 1,356 railcars, compared to 4,525 railcars a week earlier. Average daily unloading decreased by 160 railcars to 690, while loading decreased by 203 railcars to 580 railcars per day.
In July, 1.38 million metric tons of grain were transported by rail to Ukrainian seaports, which is 37% less than in June. Additional constraints included overcrowding at certain port terminals and delays in transshipping grain from railcars to ships.
Thus, the increase in railcar deliveries to the Danube currently appears to be an immediate market response to the slowdown in operations in the Greater Odessa area. However, the capacity of the Danube route is also under pressure due to the rapid shallowing of the river.
At the end of July, the water flow in the Danube at the entrance to Romania dropped to 1,650 cubic meters per second, compared to an average July level of about 4,750 cubic meters. By August 4, according to forecasts, the figure could drop to 1,500 cubic meters per second, approaching the historic low of 1,400 cubic meters set in 1985.
Back in July, the Romanian Lower Danube Administration recorded a sharp drop in water levels across virtually the entire navigable stretch from Băziaș to Sulina. Near Corabia, several barges ran aground, and actual depths in certain critical sections decreased to 1.5–1.7 meters. Dredging operations are being carried out to maintain depths of at least 1.8–2 meters.
The main risk for Ukraine lies not necessarily in a complete shutdown of the Danube ports, but in a reduction in the permissible draft of vessels. Barges and river-sea hybrid vessels will be forced to carry less grain, which will increase the number of voyages, transportation costs, and fleet turnaround time.
Even if the terminals in Reni and Izmail retain the capacity to receive railcars, the slowdown in loading grain onto vessels could lead to a buildup of rolling stock at stations near the ports. The disparity is already evident: 1,141 railcars are heading toward the Danube ports, while the average daily unloading rate is only 51 railcars.
If this ratio persists, the terminals may once again face overcrowding, after which Ukrzaliznytsia will have to impose restrictions on the shipment of certain cargoes or implement temporary measures.
The second risk is related to the increase in queues on the Romanian sections of the Danube and the Sulina Canal. The ports of Reni and Izmail depend not only on the water depths directly at the Ukrainian berths but also on the condition of the entire Lower Danube route. As the Danube Commission notes, a single shallow section can become a “weak link” and restrict traffic along the entire international corridor.
Silting also complicates the transport of Ukrainian grain by barge to Constanta, Romania. A reduction in the load capacity of a single barge means that more vessels must be deployed to transport the same volume of cargo. This increases freight rates, transshipment costs, and the risk of fines for vessel downtime.
The third risk is the simultaneous decline in the reliability of the two main maritime routes. The ports of Greater Odessa are currently operating more slowly due to terminal congestion and delays in loading ships, while the Danube—which is supposed to serve as a backup route—faces a natural limitation on its throughput capacity.
This factor becomes particularly critical during the arrival of the new grain harvest. Rising logistics costs could lower purchase prices within Ukraine, delay the fulfillment of export contracts, and widen the price gap between Ukrainian ports and the global market.
On June 24, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority began operational dredging in the waters of the Port of Izmail. The work is intended to restore the design depths near the berths and allow for the maximum possible draft and cargo capacity of vessels. It was planned to be completed within two months.
However, dredging within the Ukrainian port alone cannot fully compensate for the drop in water levels in the Romanian and transboundary sections of the Danube. To maintain stable traffic flow, Ukraine and Romania will need to work in sync, promptly mark the fairway, conduct regular depth soundings, dredge critical sections, and regulate vessel queues.
The Ministry of Infrastructure had previously identified dredging as one of the main “bottlenecks” in Danube logistics and discussed with the European Commission and Romania the coordination of traffic, the use of the PRIMUS digital system, and measures to address a potential reduction in the capacity of the Odessa-Danube route.
The Danube ports remain a strategic reserve for Ukraine’s foreign trade.
After the start of the full-scale war, their throughput capacity was increased to 35 million metric tons per year. However, actual transshipment volumes fell from 17.4 million metric tons in 2024 to 8.9 million metric tons in 2025, and authorities had previously forecast approximately 5 million metric tons for 2026.
The current increase in grain ship traffic indicates that businesses are ready to quickly return to the Danube route should problems arise in the Greater Odessa area. However, record-low water levels in the river may prevent the ports from fully accommodating this additional traffic, potentially turning the rerouting of cargo by rail into a new logistical bottleneck.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, in collaboration with insurance companies, the agribusiness sector, and relevant government agencies, is developing additional mechanisms for insurance protection of port logistics and agricultural products against military risks, the ministry’s press service reported.
Taras Vysotsky, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, noted that the extent of damage to port infrastructure, logistics facilities, and agricultural products resulting from the recent massive attacks requires further improvement of existing support mechanisms.
“Maritime exports are critical for Ukraine’s agricultural sector and economy. Amid intensifying Russian attacks, businesses must have clear and accessible protection tools,” the minister’s press service quoted him as saying.
Meeting participants paid particular attention to state mechanisms for supporting businesses in the area of military risk insurance, which are implemented by the Export-Credit Agency of Ukraine.
Currently, companies can take advantage of two instruments. The first is partial compensation for the cost of property damaged or destroyed as a result of armed aggression by the Russian Federation. The maximum compensation amount is up to 30 million hryvnias for companies operating in 10 high-risk regions.
The second instrument is compensation for insurance premiums under military risk insurance policies. The state compensates for the portion of the insurance cost exceeding 1% of the insurance rate, up to 3 million UAH, which allows businesses to significantly reduce the cost of insuring their production assets.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy noted that the stable operation of the Ukrainian Maritime Corridor is critically important for the agricultural sector, as it ensures the export of products, foreign currency inflows to the budget, and supports global food security. Since the corridor opened in August 2023, 209 million metric tons of cargo have been exported through Ukrainian ports, of which 123 million metric tons were grain products.
Agricultural exports, INSURANCE, MINISTRY OF AGRARIAN POLICY, of which 123 million metric tons were grain products., PORT, PORTS, ЭКА
The Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) shipping group, headquartered in Geneva and one of the world’s largest, has acquired a 51% stake in the TIS container terminal at the Port of Pivdennyi, according to a report by Latifundist citing data from YouControl.
According to YouControl data, the largest beneficial owners of TIS are MSC owners Diego and Alexa Aponte, each holding 25.5%.
In March of this year, it was reported that global container operator DP World sold its stake in the TIS container terminal nearly six years after acquiring it; the TIS Group bought it back.
According to DP World’s annual report, it owned a 51% stake in TIS Container Terminal Limited, listed as a multipurpose terminal.
According to YouControl, other owners and beneficiaries of the TIS container terminal include Alexey Fedorichev and his “Fedkom Invest SAM” – 18.375%, Oleg Kutateladze – 9.19%, and brothers Yegor Grebennikov and Andrey Stavnitser – 11.72% and 9.72%, respectively.
Viktor Berestenko, President of the Association of International Freight Forwarders of Ukraine, confirmed this information in a comment to Latifundist and noted that MSC’s arrival could, to some extent, intensify competition among container terminals and provide a boost to the development of port infrastructure in Ukraine.
As reported in May 2025, Medlog, a subsidiary of MSC, acquired from Grebennikov a 50% stake in the intermodal logistics operator N’UNIT and a 25% stake in the cross-border terminal “Mostiska.”
In 2024, MSC announced the completion of a deal to acquire a 49.9% stake in the German logistics group Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG (HHLA), which operates the Odessa Container Terminal (OCT).
The TIS Terminal Group is the largest stevedoring operator in Ukraine. The group comprises five terminals: “TIS-Container Terminal,” “TIS-Coal,” “TIS-Ore,” “TIS-Grain,” and “TIS-Mineral Fertilizers.” The group also owns and operates the largest infrastructure network, which includes a railway station.
According to information on the TIS Group website, the container terminal is the longest (600 m) and deepest (15 m) container terminal in the country. Its container handling capacity is 8 million tons/400,000 TEU per year. In 2021, Maersk consolidated all of its port calls in Ukraine at this terminal.
According to data from the YouControl system, the revenue of Pivdennyi Container Terminal LLC in 2025 decreased by 24.8% to 840.78 million UAH, while net profit fell by 2.8 times to 208.35 million UAH.
In the short term, prices for Ukrainian soybeans will depend on the situation in the global energy market and oil prices, which determine market conditions in the biofuel sector, according to the analytical cooperative “Push,” established within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
Analysts noted that export prices for Ukrainian soybeans are now significantly higher than at the start of the season. While soybeans were sold for approximately $390–395 per ton in September–November, current prices at ports have reached $450–460 per ton for GMO soybeans and $475 per ton for non-GMO soybeans, which is $60–70 per ton higher than at the start of the season.
“If prices rise by another $10–15 per ton, we could effectively be looking at a nearly $100 increase for the season,” experts noted.
Despite the attractive price conditions, the pace of Ukrainian soybean exports is gradually slowing down. According to analysts, shipment volumes stand at about 48,000 tons, which is significantly lower compared to the start of the marketing year, due to the impact of a 10% export duty, a reduction in domestic stocks, and the high cost of Ukrainian products on global markets.
“Ukrainian soybeans continue to lead in price in key markets. For example, in the Turkish market, they cost nearly $500 per ton, while Brazilian soybeans trade at $470–480 per ton,” the experts explained.
At the same time, prices remain high in the domestic market due to limited supply. According to analysts’ estimates, soybean stocks may fall below 1 million tons in May, which would mean that last year’s harvest has been almost completely depleted.
“Processors will need to operate until the new harvest, so they may be willing to pay a high price. It is possible that processors could raise soybean prices above 21,000 UAH/ton,” the cooperative believes.
At the same time, short-term market conditions will largely depend on the situation in the global energy market. In particular, soybean prices traditionally correlate with oil prices, as soybean oil is widely used in biodiesel production.
Short-term price fluctuations or even price declines are possible in the market in March and the first half of April. At the same time, in the medium term, the market will remain stable due to limited crop stocks and steady demand from domestic processors, concluded “Pushk.”
Prices for wheat in the ports of Greater Odessa (CPT port basis) began to rise this week, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
According to monitoring data, as of March 11, 2026, traders’ prices for class 2 wheat most often range from 10,600 to 11,000 UAH/ton CPT port, which is 100-150 UAH/ton higher than at the end of the previous week. In dollar terms, demand prices also rose and amounted to $215-225/ton CPT port.
According to analysts, prices were supported by the rise in grain prices on a FOB basis amid increased demand and restrained sales by farmers, as well as the devaluation of the national currency against the dollar.
“Individual export-oriented companies declared lower prices due to the lack of need to urgently form volumes to fulfill previously concluded contracts,” the agency stated.
The Romanian government has announced the acquisition of 100% of the shares of Danube Logistics, the operator of the Giurgiulești International Free Port in the Republic of Moldova, from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
The Moldovan Ministry of Economy has confirmed the legality of the transaction, emphasizing that it concerns only the private port operator and does not affect state-owned land. Final approval of the price is expected on February 11, 2026.
The Romanian side plans to invest more than €24 million in the modernization and development of Giurgiulești’s infrastructure: the goal is to integrate the port into Romania’s logistics network, expand its capacity, and strengthen the region’s role in the Danube and Black Sea transport corridors.
The port of Giurgiulești is located on a short section of Moldova’s access to the Danube, near the border with Romania and Ukraine, and is Moldova’s only port with access to sea and river routes.
The EBRD has previously noted the port’s strategic importance for Moldova’s foreign trade (over 70% of water import and export flows) and its potential as a hub that could be in demand for regional logistics, including future projects to rebuild Ukraine.
