Agrarians of all regions of Ukraine have started sowing winter crops for grain, as well as actively sowing rape. As of early September, 699.7 thousand hectares of winter crops have already been sown, including 654.9 thousand hectares of rape and 44.8 thousand hectares of grain, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported.
According to the report, winter wheat has already been sown on 42.5 thousand hectares, winter barley on 1.2 thousand hectares, winter rye – 1.1 thousand hectares.
According to the ministry, due to favorable weather conditions sowing of rape has already been completed in Volyn, Poltava, Sumy and Ternopil regions. The largest areas under winter rape are now in Ternopil (72.5 thousand hectares), Vinnitsa (67.2 thousand hectares) and Kirovograd (59.4 thousand hectares) regions.
As reported, according to a survey conducted by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the vast majority of agrarians do not plan to significantly change the sowing areas under winter crops in 2024 compared to last season.
The current forecast of rapeseed harvest in Ukraine will be a record and will reach a maximum of 4.2 million tons due to expanded sown areas and high yields, the export potential of the market and its processed products will also reach a maximum, according to the analytical agency Ukragroconsult.
“The key to achieving such results is not only a large harvest and the launch of new processing facilities, but also the solution of logistical issues,” the report says.
According to analysts, in July, the export statistics showed a rather active start of the season, which is important in the absence of a grain corridor. Logistics has shifted to the Danube ports and land routes through the western borders.
Due to the constant attacks on the port infrastructure, the September contracts are focused on the road and rail logistics of rapeseed, experts said, citing information from market participants.
The analytical agency pointed to the change in the geography of exports of rapeseed and its products. Now the sales of Ukrainian rapeseed are focused not so much on the European Union, but on the UK, Switzerland and Bangladesh. The situation is similar with rapeseed oil, which is exported mainly to China and Malaysia instead of the EU market. At the same time, 95% of rapeseed meal goes to the EU market, while the remaining 5% goes to Vietnam.
As of August 22, 2023, Ukraine exported about 500 thsd tonnes of rapeseed and more than 58 thsd tonnes of rapeseed oil, analysts say, adding that current export figures allow us to consider optimistic scenarios.
The production of rapeseed in Ukraine in the season-2023 may reach the new historical maximum and amount to 4.2 mln tonnes, up 5% from the previous estimate and 17% from the previous year, APK-Inform news agency reported.
“The increase in the potential of oilseed harvest was made possible due to the expansion of the planted area under this winter crop to about 1.5 mln ha (+3% by 2022), which, in turn, was due to the attractive price situation on the rapeseed market last fall, amid the general decline in prices for agricultural crops in Ukraine and, in particular, for grains,” the agency said in a statement.
The analysts noted that weather conditions during the growing season and ripening had a positive impact on the rapeseed yield and estimated it at 28.8 centners per hectare, up 5% from the previous forecast and 3% higher than in the season-2022.
According to the updated forecast of APK-Inform, in 2023/24 MY the exports of rapeseed will amount to about 3.8 mln tonnes, up 4% from the previous forecast and 10% from the last year’s figures.
“The shipment of the oilseed in the current season remains complicated due to the suspension of the “grain corridor”, missile attacks on the Danube ports and a significant load on the western crossings, and is likely to be more extended in time compared to the traditional timing of oilseeds sales on foreign markets in previous seasons,” the analysts said.
Export of Ukrainian rapeseed remains banned to Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Hungary, APK-Inform reminded and suggested that the ban will be extended after September 15.
Ukraine has reduced the rate of rapeseed exports by 1.8 times – to 220,000 tons per month against the norm of 350,000-400,000 tons, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Rada (VAR).
“We have a decrease in the export rate for rapeseed. Ukraine needs to export 350,000-400,000 tons monthly, but exports exceed 220,000 tons. For September, Ukrainian rapeseed is contracted on forwards with delivery to Romania, Lithuania, Germany exclusively by road and rail. At small river ports forwards are not arranged, only spot market works there. Rapeseed supply is low”, – analysts note.
According to their data, processors gradually pull up the level of purchase prices to 14 thousand UAH/ton, in some regions price tags are 14.2 thousand UAH/ton. Large batches – 2-3 thousand tons of rapeseed – are exported to the EU, which forces domestic processors to raise prices.
One of the factors of price growth on rapeseed, according to analysts, is the news from Canada – the key world producer of canola, about the decrease in the volume of gross harvest.
“According to the USDA report, there was a decrease in the forecast of rapeseed harvest from Canada by 1 million tons. But we can expect further declines in the forecast due to weather conditions. The volume of oilseed production in Canada will determine further price trends in the global market,” the WAR explained.
In the coming week, the conditional prices at small river ports may rise to $380-390/tonne, purchase prices of processors – up to UAH 14.4 thousand/tonne, experts predict.
Astarta” agricultural holding, the largest sugar producer in the country, has started harvesting wheat and rapeseed in Poltava region. The harvesting process in the Western region will start in the middle of July, the press service of the holding announced on Facebook on Friday.
According to the message, Astarta plans to harvest early grains from an area of almost 57,000 hectares in 2023, including winter wheat from 43,000 hectares.
“Despite the existing challenges – more than 400 mobilized workers, a serious increase in the cost of production resources, the work in the mode of constant air rapture, the possibility of overlapping reaping of winter rape and wheat – we have qualitatively and timely prepared for harvesting. We carried out repairs, the necessary amount of agricultural equipment is ready, we have good condition of crops and good yield potential. And most importantly, the people – there are preserved and well prepared teams “- said the director of agricultural production Vadim Skrypnyk.
Astarta” said that they managed to sell almost the entire harvest last year, so grain elevators of the holding are ready to receive the new harvest. During the season of 2023, the harvesting will be accompanied by the implementation of digital products AgriChain, in particular the new module of AgriChain Logistics, aimed at the automation and efficient management of all processes.
“Together with agronomics, logistics, elevator and commercial services of “Astarta” we developed a mathematical model that comprehensively solves the transport task and allows making the most optimal plan of product placement on the company’s own and third-party elevators or, if necessary, involve reserve storage options,” – explained AgriChain Director Natalia Bogacheva, emphasizing the importance of this issue during the harvesting campaign.
According to her information, the IT-division reinforced the control system of collection, transportation and delivery to the place of harvest unloading, and it also brought the transportation routing to a new level, the system of access to loading trucks via NFC technology, the digital control system “friend-or-foe”, the notification system and rapid response to abnormal situations on the routes.
During the current harvesting campaign it is also planned to implement hourly dispatching of product delivery from the field to the storage locations through the work orders system, which will help to avoid queues, idle time, increase vehicle turnover and choose the best route.
“Astarta is a vertically integrated agro-industrial holding operating in eight regions of Ukraine. It consists of six sugar factories, farms with land bank of 220 thousand hectares, dairy farms with 22 thousand cattle, oil extraction plant in Globino (Poltava region), seven elevators and biogas complex.
Agroholding increased its net profit in 2021 14 times compared to 2020 – up to EUR 122.5 mln, EBITDA – 1.8 times, up to EUR 201.5 mln. Its revenue increased by 18.2% up to EUR 491.35 mln, one third of which (EUR 170 mln) was generated by sugar production and sales.
The low average yield of rapeseed of 1.2-1.3 tons/ha will not allow Ukrainian agrarians to get a high gross of oilseed crop, the yields may level out in the future, but there will not be a record harvest, said the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, created within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Rada (AAR).
“Rapeseed prices have started to rise sharply, and this trend will continue both in Ukraine and around the world,” the analysts said at a weekly briefing Tuesday.
According to their information, in small river ports the indicative rapeseed prices for a week increased from 330 euro/ton to 345 euro/ton. Supply of Ukrainian rapeseed was low last week. The situation will not change quickly, as the harvest has recently started.
Analysts expect indicative prices in small ports to grow to € 348 / ton by the end of the week, on the terms of CPT – up to € 355-360 / ton in the coming weeks.
Processors sounded purchase prices for rapeseed in a wide range, depending on the region – 12300-13200 hryvnia / ton, the lowest mark in the Odessa region, stated the “Pusk”.
The world prices for biodiesel are rising again, vegetable oils are becoming more expensive, so rapeseed will rise in price at the exchanges. But July and early August will be unfavorable for sales under the pressure of the new harvest, analysts summarized.
