The pace of growth of retail lending in Ukraine in 2019 could be 30-40%, according to bankers polled by Interfax-Ukraine. “In 2019, consumer loans will remain the main component and driver of growth in the loan portfolio of banks and the main direction of retail lending: they now form more than 80% of all retail loans in hryvnias. The growth rate of retail loans may reach 40%, the most dynamic growth will remain in short term loan segments – up to one year, as well as from one to five years,”, Deputy Board Chairman, Director for Retail Business at Credit Dnepr Bank Oleh Pakhomov said.
Pakhomov said that in 2019, GDP growth is expected to slow down to 3% from 3.2-3.5% in 2018, while the consumer segment will be again the driver rather than the real economic sector. At the same time, inflationary dynamics forces the NBU to maintain a tight monetary policy, raising the refinancing rate and thus increasing the cost of the hryvnia resource in the market. In these circumstances, banks will still prefer to place part of their resources not in credit programs, but in risk-free operations with deposit certificates and government bonds.
Board Chairperson of IBOX Bank Halyna Kheilo said that the growth rate of lending to the population in 2019 could reach 30%.
Head of the RwS Bank’s lending department Natalia Holub said that retail lending will grow by 30% next year.
“Given that the average loan term for retail products is two years and the outlined pace, the growth of the retail loan portfolio in 2019 will be 12-15%, and the volume of retail lending will grow by 30%,” she said.
Deputy Board Chairman for Retail Business at FUIB Sebastian Rubaj said that the portfolio of retail lending to banks will grow by approximately 15%.
Director of Retail Banking at Ukrgasbank Oleh Kliapko said that in 2019, the focus of retail lending will shift to high-margin products with short turnarounds. Priority areas will be cash loans and credit cards.
Bankers believe that retail loan rates in 2019 will remain high.
Average retail prices for petrol and diesel fuel in Ukraine in the period from September 24 to October 2, 2018 grew by 2.3-3%, while prices of LPG climbed by 1.1%, according to data from the A-95 Consulting Group (Kyiv). As reported, average retail prices for petrol in Ukraine for 2017 increased by 19.2-20.1% (by UAH 4.61-4.76 per liter), for diesel fuel by 22.6% (by UAH 4.84 per liter). At the same time, average prices for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), despite a sharp increase in August due to deficit, showed an increase of only 2.9% for the year (by UAH 0.36 per liter).
Changes in average retail fuel prices UAH per liter in Ukraine:
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January-August 2018 increased by 5.4% in comparable prices in comparison with January-August 2017, the State Statistics Service has said. According to its data, in August 2018 in comparison with July 2018 retail trade turnover rose by 5.7%, compared with August 2017 by 7.5%.
The largest increase in retail trade turnover for the eight months of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017 was observed in Luhansk (27.9%), Donetsk (13.3%), Poltava (10.8%), Zakarpattia (10.2%), and Kyiv regions (10%). As reported, retail trade turnover in Ukraine in 2017 increased by 8.8%, amounting to UAH 816.554 billion.
