In its August forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for soybean and soybean meal exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 marketing year (marketing year, September 2026–August 2027) by 0.25 million metric tons—to 2.15 million metric tons and 1.25 million metric tons, respectively.
The USDA attributes these changes to a reduction in planted acreage and a decline in this year’s soybean harvest.
Overall, the forecast for oilseed exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 MY has also been reduced by 0.25 million metric tons—to 4.85 million metric tons—but this is higher than the 4.24 million metric tons in the 2025/2026 MY, although significantly lower than the 7.39 million metric tons recorded the year before.
As for oilseed processing, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects it to reach 16.9 million metric tons in Ukraine during the 2026/2027 marketing year, which is 0.3 million metric tons less than in the July report. This is higher than the figures for both the 2025/2026 marketing year (14.8 million metric tons) and the 2024/2025 marketing year (15.7 million metric tons).
The USDA also lowered its estimate for sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year by 0.275 million metric tons, to 4.1 million metric tons.
All other estimates for harvest, processing, production, and exports for the 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 marketing years remain unchanged.
Thus, the overall forecast for vegetable oil exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 marketing year remains at 6.13 million metric tons, compared to 5.15 million metric tons in the 2025/2026 marketing year, including, respectively, sunflower oil at 4.95 million metric tons versus 4.1 million metric tons, sunflower meal at 3.3 million metric tons compared to 2.9 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, and sunflower seeds at 0.1 million metric tons versus 0.04 million metric tons
According to estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, sunflower processing in Ukraine this marketing year will increase to 12.775 million metric tons from 10.8 million metric tons a year earlier, domestic consumption of sunflower meal will rise to 1.875 million metric tons from 1.65 million metric tons, and oil consumption will increase to 0.47 million metric tons from 0.455 million metric tons.
The USDA forecasts this year’s sunflower harvest at 13 million metric tons, with sunflower oil production at 4.418 million metric tons and meal production at 5.204 million metric tons.
Prices for food and feed wheat in Ukraine remained unchanged over the week—$195 and $185 per metric ton, respectively, on a CPT Odessa basis—while the price of corn fell by $5 to $195 per metric ton CPT Odessa, according to brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
The price of sunflower seeds on a CPT mill basis was $550 per metric ton; rapeseed on a CPT port basis fell by $20 to $500 per metric ton, while on an FCA Chop basis it rose by $5 to $545 per metric ton. The price of GMO soybeans fell to $420 per metric ton CPT port and to $435 per metric ton FCA Chop, while non-GMO soybeans on an FCA Chop basis rose by $10 to $470 per metric ton and fell by $10 to $440 per metric ton on a CPT port basis.
“This week, the Ukrainian physical market moved away from a direct correlation with exchange dynamics. The SPIKE CPT Odessa corn index fell to $195 (-$5 for the week), while 11.5% food wheat and feed wheat held steady at $195 and $185, respectively. On the western basis, SPIKE FCA Chop corn adjusted to $220 (-$3), maintaining a premium of about $25 to the port destination,” the report states.
According to Spike Brokers, the price of corn on an FCA Chop basis also fell—by $3, to $220 per metric ton. The sunflower seed price of $550 per metric ton is linked to processors’ transition to new-crop prices.
The port price of rapeseed fell by $20 per metric ton, while at the western border it rose by $5. From August 1–6, Ukraine exported 27.9 thousand metric tons of rapeseed.
During this period, Ukraine exported 33.5 thousand metric tons of corn, 93.2 thousand metric tons of wheat, and 4.2 thousand metric tons of soybeans. Sunflower oil exports totaled 30.7 thousand metric tons.
In the 2025/2026 marketing year, Ukraine exported 2.7 million metric tons of soybeans, compared to 3.8 million metric tons in the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association.
Turkey was the largest buyer of Ukrainian soybeans, purchasing 923,000 metric tons. The top five importers also included the Netherlands (382,000 metric tons), Germany (298,000 metric tons), France (159,000 metric tons), and Egypt (151,000 metric tons).
According to the UGA, the decline in soybean exports was due to a lower harvest and the introduction of an export duty on this crop.
Starting July 1, 2026, Ukraine will begin accepting applications through the State Agrarian Registry (DAR) for participation in the open rapeseed export program, according to a press release from the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture.
“The launch of the open export program for soybeans and rapeseed is another step toward creating transparent and clear rules for the agricultural sector. We have digitized the process as much as possible so that producers can quickly submit an application through the SAR, and the government has an effective tool for administering exports,” the press service quoted Taras Vysotsky, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, as saying.
As noted in the announcement, legal entities and individual entrepreneurs who are agricultural producers may participate in the program. Applications will be submitted exclusively through the DAR system.
For rapeseed, applications will be accepted from July 1 of this year through April 1 of next year; for soybeans, from September 1 through June 1 of next year.
The program sets a maximum export volume of 5 metric tons of rapeseed per hectare of farmland and 3.5 metric tons of soybeans per hectare. During the application period, producers will have the right to adjust information regarding their planned or actual harvest once.
According to Vysotsky, the mechanism provides for maximum automation of the process without additional bureaucratic procedures or the need to obtain opinions from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
As previously reported, in May 2026, the Cabinet of Ministers amended the procedure for confirming the right of agricultural producers and agricultural cooperatives to be exempt from export duties when exporting their own soybeans and rapeseed. The new mechanism provides for automatic verification through the State Agrarian Register instead of obtaining opinions from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
agricultural producer, EXPORT, RAPESEED, SOYBEANS, State Agrarian Register
Soybean acreage in 2026 reached 2.1 million hectares, an increase of 5% compared to last year, Taras Vysotsky, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, told reporters on the sidelines of the Grain Ukraine 2026 international conference on Friday.
“This year, soybean acreage did not decrease; in fact, it increased by 5%. Several factors contributed to this simultaneously—the rising cost of fertilizers and fuel. Consequently, farmers have shifted their focus to crops that require fewer fertilizers, namely soybeans. It requires lower costs for cultivation, transportation, and export,” Vysotsky noted.
As reported, pursuant to Law No. 4536-IX of July 16, 2025, a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans was introduced in Ukraine effective September 4, 2025. The document provides for a gradual reduction of the rate by 1% annually, starting January 1, 2030, to 5% by 2035. At the same time, the law includes a preferential regime for direct producers and cooperatives, who are exempt from paying the duty when exporting their own-grown products.
Experts from the American Chamber of Commerce (ACC) have argued that this could lead to a significant reduction in soybean acreage in 2026 due to this law.
According to the Ministry of Economy, as of June 2, 1.96 million hectares had been planted with soybeans, or 96% of the forecast, whereas last year, as of May 30, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, soybean plantings totaled 2.23 million hectares.
agricultural sector, export duty, MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, planting season, SOYBEANS
The introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed will reduce the profitability of these crops, leading to a 30% reduction in soybean acreage in 2026, experts from the American Chamber of Commerce (ACC) reported during a press briefing in Kyiv.
“Our forecasts indicate a possible 30% reduction in soybean acreage compared to the previous season. The export duty acts as an economic barrier, making the cultivation of this crop less attractive to producers. Farmers won’t take losses every year—if the financial result is negative, they’ll simply change their crop mix,” the experts explained.
The business association noted that under normal conditions, corn could be an alternative, but currently its investment appeal is also in question due to rising production costs.
“Prices for fuel and fertilizers have risen significantly, particularly due to the escalation of the situation surrounding Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This significantly increases farmers’ costs for growing corn, which, combined with the low profitability of oilseeds due to tariffs (on soybeans and rapeseed – IF-U), puts farmers in a difficult position ahead of the spring planting season,” the briefing participants emphasized.
Experts expressed confidence that if regulatory policy does not change, there is a risk that farmers will abandon rapeseed and soybean cultivation in the long term. This will lead to domestic processors, who lobbied for the introduction of tariffs to obtain cheap raw materials, eventually facing a physical shortage of those materials due to reduced production.
As reported, pursuant to Law No. 4536-IX of July 16, 2025, a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans was introduced in Ukraine effective September 4, 2025. The document provides for a gradual reduction of the rate by 1% annually, starting January 1, 2030, to 5% by 2035. At the same time, the law includes a preferential regime for direct producers and cooperatives, who are exempt from paying the duty when exporting their own-grown products.
