The global soybean market is still in stable demand, and Brazil and the United States remain the key players and competitors of Ukrainian soybeans, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, created within the framework of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
“The price of soybeans in Chicago is growing, which is a signal for the physical market. The soybean deficit is not expected in the world, but the weather conditions in Brazil add to the tension. Problems with precipitation and moisture content of the crop may reduce the quality of the grain, which will push prices up,” the experts said.
According to the analysts’ forecasts, in February Ukraine is expected to see the price at $400-405 per ton on CPT terms. At the same time, Ukrainian processors are currently unable to offer high purchase prices due to lower prices for rapeseed and sunflower.
Nevertheless, the market is supported by export demand. The situation on the soybean market remains dynamic, and weather conditions may become one of the key factors in determining prices, analysts say.
In October 2024, Ukraine exported the record monthly volume of soybeans – 675 thsd tonnes, up almost three times compared to September and 20% compared to the previous high of 561.5 thsd tonnes in October 2019, APK-Inform news agency reported.
“The significant increase in soybean shipments since the beginning of the season-2024/25 is due to a number of factors, in particular, the growing demand for the Ukrainian crop from the key importers – the EU and Turkey – amid the decline in its price in July-August,” the analysts said.
At the same time, many exporters were in a hurry to ship, expecting a reduction in trade after the introduction of the minimum price mechanism for exports of certain types of goods, in particular soybeans. As experts reminded, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine noted that the law regulating minimum prices for agricultural exports will come into force no later than December 10, 2024.
According to them, Ukraine has already exported 918 thsd tonnes of soybeans since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year, which is 44% higher than in the same period of the previous season. The EU countries accounted for almost half of the total exports (47%). The growth in this direction is estimated at 54%. Ukrainian soybean supplies to Turkey increased by 10%.
In addition, shipments to Pakistan increased significantly in September-October, bringing the country’s share to 12% of total exports.
This is a relatively new export destination for Ukrainian soybeans, opened in May 2024, APK-Inform stated.
Agrotrade has completed threshing sunflower and soybeans in the fields of Poltava, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy regions, which covered 12.4 thou hectares and 8.1 thou hectares, respectively, the company’s press service reports.
According to the report, despite the abnormal heat during the 2024 season, the yield of sunflower and soybeans is quite high.
“We got high sunflower yields for these conditions in Chernihiv and Sumy regions. In Kharkiv region, it was much more difficult to work because there was no precipitation at all. In addition, this is a ‘conditionally safe’ area, so we were limited in our ability to conduct some agricultural operations. The yields depended on the cultivation technology: on the fields where we sowed with a long rotation and an optimal predecessor, they were high, and, conversely, with a short rotation and a poor predecessor, the yields were lower. At the same time, soybeans were affected by drought in all enterprises,” said Oleksandr Ovsyanyk, Director of Agrotrade’s Agricultural Department.
According to him, due to the hot summer, the grain arrives at the elevators completely dry and does not need to be processed. As a result, agricultural producers have significantly reduced drying costs, which improves the economic component of their work.
The agricultural holding has no plans to change its cultivation technology to take into account the drought. However, they intend to consider investing in moisture-saving technologies. Agrotrade Group is a vertically integrated holding company with a full agro-industrial cycle (production, processing, storage and trade of agricultural products). It cultivates over 70 thousand hectares of land in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava and Kharkiv regions.
Its main crops are sunflower, corn, winter wheat, soybeans and rapeseed. It has its own network of elevators with a simultaneous storage capacity of 570 thousand tons. The group also produces hybrid seeds of corn and sunflower, barley, and winter wheat. In 2014, a seed plant with a capacity of 20 thousand tons of seeds per year was built on the basis of Kolos seed farm (Kharkiv region). In 2018, Agrotrade launched its own brand Agroseeds on the market.
Vsevolod Kozhemiako is the founder and CEO of Agrotrade.
The farms of Ukrprominvest-Agro, one of the leading sugar producers in Ukraine, are actively harvesting late crops: 55% of soybean and 48% of corn have been harvested at PJSC Food Company Podillya, and 86% of sunflower and 30% of soybean at Food Company Zorya Podillya, the company’s press service reports on its Facebook page.
“The 2024 season was dry and hot, which led to premature drying and ripening of crops. Therefore, compared to previous years, we decided to start harvesting earlier,” said Yevhen Moskalev, Director of Ukrprominvest-Agro’s Agricultural Production Department.
According to him, this strategy applies to all crops except sugar beet, which has been postponed in anticipation of productive rainfall that will help soften the dry and hard soil for high-quality harvesting with less losses and less load on the harvesters.
The agroholding noted that Podillya has fully harvested its sunflower crop. The company also harvested soybeans on 55% of the area and corn on 48% of the area. On September 17, the sugar beet digging season started.
Zorya Podillya started harvesting early soybeans, followed by sunflower. As of mid-September, 86% of the sunflower area was harvested, 30% of soybeans were harvested, and corn harvesting has begun. Also, on September 10, the company started digging sugar beet in the area of its operations.
The sowing of winter crops for the 2025 harvest began in August-September: 5.7 thousand hectares of rapeseed and 655 hectares of winter rye have already been sown for green fodder for livestock, and winter wheat sowing has begun.
As reported, in 2024, UPI-Agro allocated 72.9 thou hectares for spring crops, including 22.3 thou hectares for sugar beet, 22.7 thou hectares for soybeans, 25.2 thou hectares for corn, and 2.7 thou hectares for sunflower.
“Ukrprominvest-Agro is engaged in growing crops, producing sugar, flour, meat and dairy farming.
The group’s land bank exceeds 116.5 thousand hectares. The agricultural holding is located mainly in regions that have not been invaded by the Russian occupiers.
The total number of cattle of the agricultural holding is 6.3 thousand, pigs – 12 thousand. The total elevator storage capacity of the agricultural holding is 120 thousand tons. The group’s sugar business is represented by two sugar factories in Vinnytsia region. In 2021, the group produced 263.4 thousand tons of sugar, the third highest in Ukraine. The holding supplies grain processing products to Moldova, Georgia, Turkmenistan, Israel, Palestine, Angola, Lebanon, Syria, and Vietnam.
Ukrprominvest-Agro comprises Agroprodinvest Group LLC, PJSC Podillya Production Complex, LLC Zorya Podillya Production Complex, LLC Vinnytsia Bakery No. 2, AF Dniproagrolan, AF Ivankivtsi, LLC Mas-Agro, LLC Pravoberezhne, and LLC Progress-NT.
The owner of the agricultural holding since December 2019 is the son of the former President of Ukraine Oleksiy Poroshenko.
In the August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the forecast of global oilseeds production in 2024/2025 MY by 4.5 mln tonnes to 690.5 mln tonnes due to the growth of soybean and rapeseed production, which partially offset the decline in sunflower, cotton, peanuts and palm kernel production.
Analysts increased global rapeseed production by 0.9 million tons to 88.8 million, mainly due to the expansion of rapeseed production in Russia. World sunflower production was reduced by 2.3 million tons to 52.5 million due to unfavorable weather conditions that affected yields in Ukraine, Russia, the EU, Turkey, Serbia and Moldova.
The USDA’s global soybean production in 2024/2025 is increased by 6.9 million tons to 428.7 million tons due to higher production in the US, Ukraine, Russia, India and Benin. Exports are increased by 1.0 million tons to 181.2 million due to higher exports to the US, Ukraine, Russia and Benin, partially offsetting lower shipments from Argentina. Soybean imports were increased for Egypt, the EU, Iran and Turkey. Global ending stocks of soybeans in 2024/25 MY increased by 6.5 million tons to 134.3 million, mainly due to higher stocks in China, the United States and Argentina, partially offset by lower stocks in Brazil.
In Ukraine, soybeans continue to fall in price, in the first three weeks of July, market operators announced the purchase prices for them in the range of 16 500-18 800 UAH/t CPT, which is 500-900 UAH/t lower than at the end of June, APK-Inform news agency reported.
“The decline in prices was mainly due to the decrease in demand for soybeans from processors due to the reduction of soybean processing caused by the low attractiveness of prices for soybean meal/cake, the transition of plants to rapeseed processing, and the energy crisis, which significantly hit the processors. This was especially evident in the central regions, where stricter restrictions on electricity supply were introduced,” the analysts explained.
According to their information, given the current situation, the volume of soybean purchases in the country decreased significantly, which resulted in the reduction of the number of finished product offers.
In addition, the downward price trend in soybean exports also continued in the period under review, although the pace of shipments increased significantly in July. Demand prices decreased by 20-30 USD/t and were quoted from 400 USD/t with delivery to the port. At the same time, the demand prices for soybeans of the new harvest were 20-30 USD/t lower than the current price level for the legume in 2023, which was largely due to the expectation of the record harvest of soybeans in Ukraine in 2024, APK-Inform stated.
