In the short term, prices for Ukrainian soybeans will depend on the situation in the global energy market and oil prices, which determine market conditions in the biofuel sector, according to the analytical cooperative “Push,” established within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
Analysts noted that export prices for Ukrainian soybeans are now significantly higher than at the start of the season. While soybeans were sold for approximately $390–395 per ton in September–November, current prices at ports have reached $450–460 per ton for GMO soybeans and $475 per ton for non-GMO soybeans, which is $60–70 per ton higher than at the start of the season.
“If prices rise by another $10–15 per ton, we could effectively be looking at a nearly $100 increase for the season,” experts noted.
Despite the attractive price conditions, the pace of Ukrainian soybean exports is gradually slowing down. According to analysts, shipment volumes stand at about 48,000 tons, which is significantly lower compared to the start of the marketing year, due to the impact of a 10% export duty, a reduction in domestic stocks, and the high cost of Ukrainian products on global markets.
“Ukrainian soybeans continue to lead in price in key markets. For example, in the Turkish market, they cost nearly $500 per ton, while Brazilian soybeans trade at $470–480 per ton,” the experts explained.
At the same time, prices remain high in the domestic market due to limited supply. According to analysts’ estimates, soybean stocks may fall below 1 million tons in May, which would mean that last year’s harvest has been almost completely depleted.
“Processors will need to operate until the new harvest, so they may be willing to pay a high price. It is possible that processors could raise soybean prices above 21,000 UAH/ton,” the cooperative believes.
At the same time, short-term market conditions will largely depend on the situation in the global energy market. In particular, soybean prices traditionally correlate with oil prices, as soybean oil is widely used in biodiesel production.
Short-term price fluctuations or even price declines are possible in the market in March and the first half of April. At the same time, in the medium term, the market will remain stable due to limited crop stocks and steady demand from domestic processors, concluded “Pushk.”
Oilseed production in Ukraine in the 2026-2027 season will show growth due to high margins and the development of domestic processing, according to the information and analytical agency UkrAgroConsult.
Analysts noted that sunflower will remain a priority crop for farmers. At the beginning of 2026, sunflower seed prices approached UAH 30,000/t, which encourages farms to expand their crops. The area under this crop in the new season may increase to 6.1 million hectares.
The soybean and rapeseed markets remain stable. At the same time, domestic processing of these crops is growing in Ukraine, which strengthens the country’s role in the Black Sea region. An increase in gross seed harvest will stimulate plant utilization and further growth in oil and meal exports.
Among the key trends for the 2026/27 season, UkrAgroConsult named the preservation of oilseeds as one of the most profitable segments of agricultural production, with sunflower maintaining its leading position. Analysts also predict an increase in processing capacity utilization and a further increase in exports of processed products amid relative stability in the soybean and rapeseed markets.
Prices for soybeans on the Ukrainian export market reached $437–447/t CPT port in early March, which is the highest figure for this sector since February 2024, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
“The Ukrainian market continues to receive support from the global soybean sector, in particular due to a certain delay in the harvesting and delivery of soybeans in Brazil amid difficult weather conditions, as well as due to the growth of soybean prices in Chicago under the influence of a further increase in soybean oil prices in the US,” the agency noted.
Analysts noted that the domestic market continues to see a trend toward higher prices due to intense competition between processing companies and exporters. Demand prices have risen by 200-500 UAH/ton over the last period, depending on the region and demand for raw materials.
At the same time, experts predict a possible decline in export prices in the near future due to an increase in the supply of new crops from South America. However, in their opinion, the factors supporting high levels will remain military actions in the Middle East, oil market volatility, and increased demand for soybeans from China.
Foreign exchange earnings from rapeseed oil exports from Ukraine in the second half of 2025 increased 2.2 times compared to the same period of the previous season, while rapeseed meal revenues increased 1.4 times, according to Dmytro Kysilevsky, deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Economic Development, citing data from the Ukroliyaprom association.
“The introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed has allowed Ukraine to increase the production of oil and meal from these raw materials, as well as to increase exports of processed products,” he wrote on Facebook.
According to the association’s data, in July-December 2025, rapeseed processing into oil increased 1.8 times. In the soybean segment, in September-December 2025, oil production increased by 22.4%, exports by 23.3%, and foreign exchange earnings by 1.5 times.
“The processing of soybeans into oil and meal exceeded its exports by 3.7%,” the parliamentarian emphasized.
Ukroliyaprom predicts that in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June), rapeseed processing will reach a record 1.7 million tons (over 50% of the gross harvest), and soybeans — 3.0 million tons (over 60%). This will ensure the production of 720,000 tons of rapeseed oil and 600,000 tons of soybean oil.
Kysilevsky emphasized that the processing model proved its effectiveness in the very first season of the duty law, providing billions of hryvnias in taxes. He also recalled the support programs “Made in Ukraine,” in particular, “5-7-9” loans and 25% compensation for the cost of agricultural machinery.
The US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) approved a $40 million loan agreement for a 10-year term for one of the subsidiaries of Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, Astarta Agricultural Holding.
“DFC will co-finance with the International Finance Corporation capital investments and operating expenses related to the construction of a soybean protein concentrate (SPC) plant,” the agricultural holding company said.
According to Vyacheslav Chuk, director of commercial operations and strategic marketing at the agricultural holding, in September 2025, Astarta intends to continue investing in the construction of its soy protein concentrate plant in 2026, with investments amounting to approximately EUR 40 million.
In 2024, Astarta began investing in the construction of a plant for processing soybean meal into soy protein concentrate with a capacity of 500 tons/day (approximately 100,000 tons/year) in the Hlobyn Industrial Complex (Poltava region). The agricultural holding will invest over EUR 76 million in the purchase of equipment and technologies and will create 110 new jobs.
Astarta and its structural unit Astarta Agro Protein signed the first investment agreement with the Ukrainian government to receive compensation from the state for significant investments. Under the agreement, the state will provide the agricultural holding with a number of incentives, including exemption from import duties on new equipment, import VAT on new equipment, and income tax for up to five years.
Astarta is a vertically integrated agro-industrial holding company operating in eight regions of Ukraine and is the largest sugar producer in Ukraine. It comprises six sugar factories, agricultural enterprises with a land bank of 220,000 hectares, dairy farms with 22,000 head of cattle, an oil extraction plant in Hlobyn (Poltava region), seven elevators, and a biogas complex.
In the first half of 2025, Astarta reduced its net profit by 10.3% to EUR47.11 million, and its consolidated revenue decreased by 29.3% to EUR320.71 million.
The Cabinet of Ministers has adopted a resolution introducing a mechanism for monitoring soybean and rapeseed exports, according to the press service of the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture.
“We are introducing a transparent mechanism that allows producers, rather than intermediaries, to be exempt from export duties. The funds that the state will receive from traders’ duties will replenish a special budget fund and will be directed to programs to support frontline territories, where farmers work in the most difficult conditions, grants for processing, greenhouses, orchards, and insurance against military risks,” said Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture Taras Vysotsky, whose words are quoted in a statement on the ministry’s website.
The Ministry of Economy noted that the document aims to ensure the fair application of export duty exemptions for certain categories of agricultural producers.
The new procedure establishes a monthly monitoring mechanism to be implemented by the Ministry of Economy to verify the compliance of exported product volumes with the data contained in the State Agrarian Register (SAR) regarding the actual products grown. If discrepancies are found between the declared and actual volumes grown, the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry is obliged to cancel the expert conclusions.
“The introduction of such a mechanism ensures that only those exporters who have actually grown the products themselves will benefit from the exemption from export duties,” the ministry added.
The resolution ensures transparent and fair administration of the export duty exemption, prevents abuse during the export of soybeans and rapeseed, provides equal and fair conditions of competition for agricultural producers, and ensures state support for farmers, as only traders, not producers, will pay the duty, the statement said.
The government’s decision is expected to strengthen state control, ensure targeted budget revenues, and contribute to the stability of the agricultural sector. Monitoring will make it possible to simultaneously support conscientious producers and guarantee the replenishment of a special fund for the implementation of key agricultural development programs.
As reported, in September 2025, a law was passed introducing a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed. Agricultural producers and cooperatives that export their own products are exempt from paying the duty. The duty is paid by traders and other exporters who are not producers. The mechanism is aimed at supporting farmers, stimulating domestic processing, and filling a special state budget fund to finance agricultural programs.
