The devaluation of the Turkish lira in the near future will not lead to sharp price fluctuations in export and import transactions between Ukraine and Turkey, but there are fears of a decrease in the revenues of Ukrainian exporters that supply goods to the Turkish market, the Ukrsadprom association has reported. “The main export goods for each country are largely tied to a stable foreign currency and depend more on the situation on the global market rather than on changes in the domestic market. Therefore, in the short term, at least until the end of this year, it’s not worth expecting sharp price fluctuations in export and import operations with Turkey,” the association’s press service told Interfax-Ukraine.
At the same time, according to Ukrsadprom experts, there are some concerns about the possible transition of Turkey in payments on foreign economic transactions with its main partners, including Ukraine, from the U.S. dollar to the national currency.
“We are currently considering the possibility of Turkey’s transition to settlements in foreign economic transactions with its main partners … This could cause inconvenience both in the settlement mechanism itself, and in setting prices and the appropriate exchange rate, because, according to most expectations, the Turkish lira will continue depreciating. As a consequence, there is a possibility of lower revenues for Ukrainian exporters,” Ukrsadprom indicates. However, in addition, there are grounds for a certain reduction in import prices for Ukraine when making purchases in Turkey, the association noted.
Ukrsadprom said Turkey is one of the largest importers of domestic agro-food products. For the first six months of this year, Ukraine exported agricultural products to Turkey for $458 million.
Ukraine in the first half of 2018 exported fruit and berries worth $100 million, which is 59% more than in the same period of 2017. According to the Ukrsadprom association, the main products in the structure of exports remain walnuts worth $64 million, frozen berries for $23 million, apples and pears for $8 million. “Compared with last year, the volume of walnut exports increased from 12,000 to 19,000 tonnes, apples and pears from 6,000 to 24,000 tonnes, while the deliveries of frozen berries decreased slightly from 17,000 to 14,000 tonnes,” the report says.
The main buyers of Ukrainian gardening products, according to the association, are the countries of the European Union, which account for more than 60% of the value of exports.
“In the six months, the largest fruit supplies in monetary terms from Ukraine were made to Poland for $11.2 million, France for $9.9 million, Turkey for $9.3 million, Belarus for $8 million, Germany for $5.1 million, Greece for $5 million and the Netherlands for $4.7 million,” the report says.
As noted, Ukrainian apples are mostly delivered to Belarus (46% of the value of supplies), Moldova (21%), and Sweden (10%).
BELARUS, BERRY, EXPORT, FRANCE, FRUIT, GERMANY, POLAND, TURKEY
Turkey’s resorts remain most popular in the number of charter flights from Ukraine in the 2018 tourist season, and around 80 charter flights to this country is serviced from Ukrainian airports every week.
Analysts from TripSee online service told Interfax-Ukraine that the share of charter flights to Turkey in the 2018 tourist season is 72-75% of all charter programs of tour operators working in Ukraine.
About 15-20% of the charter programs of Ukrainian tour operators are flights to Egypt, then Greece, Bulgaria and Tunisia.
Analysts of TripSee also said that in 2018, new charter destinations for the resorts of Italy – to Calabria and Ancona, as well as to the Peloponnese Peninsula in Greece – were launched from Ukraine.
“Only one operator has several flights a day to Turkey, so the client can choose the most convenient time for departure. In Europe, this year there is also a more extensive flight program. The cost of tours has increased, but insignificantly. The market has hot tours and tours for later dates,” the TripSee analysts said.
Commenting on the pace of prices for package tours in the summer season of 2018, they said that prices for tours to Turkey start from UAH 7,000 all inclusive, Greece – from UAH 10 thousand per person with breakfasts, to Spain – from UAH 12 thousand with breakfasts and dinners.
At the same time, the analysts from TripSee said that, as before, most customers are looking for hot tours, especially to Turkey, but in the season of 2018 there is a noticeable upward pace in earlier purchases.
Ukraine has received the right to export beef to the Turkish market, according to the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection.
This decision was made following the results of work of the technical mission of the directorate general for protection and control of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock of Turkey on assessing state control over beef production, which operated in Ukraine in late April 2018.
Turkish inspectors audited the system of state control over production of beef in Ukraine and inspected slaughter enterprises that are interested in exporting their products to Turkey.
At the same time, the service notes that work on agreeing the form of a veterinary certificate for exports of Ukrainian beef to Turkey is currently at the final stages.
Ukraine and Turkey have discussed access to the market of agricultural goods and the services market during the 10th round of negotiations on the free trade area (FTA), as well as the provisions of the agreement related to telecom and e-commerce, Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade, Trade Representative of Ukraine Natalia Mykolska has said. “The round was not an easy one, since we defend the opening of the most profitable opportunities of the Turkish market for Ukraine and Ukrainian exporters. So we used this opportunity to address the issues of access to agricultural markets,” she wrote on her Facebook page on Saturday.
She also pointed out significant progress in the above-mentioned issues: “We are moving intensely, as both sides have an understanding that the agreement is in the priority of the governments of the two countries.”
Earlier, the trade representative said that Ukraine and Turkey had agreed to complete negotiations on the FTA in the near future.
The markets of China, Ukraine, Argentina, South Africa and Turkey are the most vulnerable among all developing countries in terms of financing needs, reserve adequacy, asset valuation, institutional quality and trade resilience, according to a review by the analysts of the Institute of International Finance (IIF). Experts in May reevaluated the potential changes in investors’ interest in the assets of these countries amidst the strengthening of the U.S. dollar exchange rate, the growth of interest rates and the intensification of trade disputes.
The IIF considers the assets of Russia, the Czech Republic, Colombia, Brazil and the Philippines less exposed to such risks.
Turkey, Argentina, the Republic of South Africa, Ukraine and India have the highest need for financing, the IIF analysts believe.
The most notable improvement compared to the previous year, including that in terms of reducing needs for funding and increasing the attractiveness of assets, was demonstrated by Indonesia. In addition, the situation has improved in Malaysia, Chile, Egypt, and Brazil.
India’s position has worsened significantly, which is largely due to an increase in the deficit of the current account of its balance of payments. A comparative increase of risks is also observed in Turkey, Poland, and Ukraine.
ARGENTINA, CHINA, INSTITUTE, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, MARKETS, SOUTH AFRICA, TURKEY
