In its September forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for wheat production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year by 0.6 million metric tons compared to August—to 26 million metric tons—but at the same time lowered its forecast for Ukrainian exports by 1 million metric tons—to 12.5 million metric tons.
According to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, published by the USDA on September 11, 2026, the upward revision of the harvest forecast is due to record-high yields of Ukrainian wheat as the harvest nears completion. In August, the agency had estimated production at 25.4 million metric tons.
The forecast for domestic consumption of Ukrainian wheat has been raised from 9.2 million metric tons to 9.5 million metric tons, including feed consumption—from 4.2 million metric tons to 4.5 million metric tons.
At the same time, the USDA significantly raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending wheat stocks—from 4.8 million metric tons in the August forecast to 6.1 million metric tons in September. Imports are expected to total 0.1 million metric tons.
Thus, despite the improved harvest estimate, the additional production is not translating into a corresponding increase in exports and is largely contributing to a buildup in domestic stocks.
The USDA attributes the downward revision of Ukraine’s export estimate—as well as Russia’s—to slow shipment rates in August and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region due to the ongoing war.
Ukraine remains one of the largest suppliers of wheat to the global market. According to the USDA forecast, global wheat trade in the 2026/27 marketing year will total approximately 211.8 million metric tons.
Source: USDA WASDE-675 report dated September 11, 2026: USDA WASDE September 2026
Global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year will total 822.43 million metric tons, which is 3.13 million metric tons higher than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August forecast, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the September USDA report, one of the main factors behind the revision was an improvement in the crop outlook in Australia. The forecast for the country was raised by 3 million tonnes at once — from 28 million tonnes to 31 million tonnes thanks to favorable weather conditions.
For Canada, the production forecast was increased by 1 million tonnes — to 36 million tonnes, and for Ukraine — by 0.6 million tonnes, to 26 million tonnes. At the same time, the forecast for Kazakhstan was reduced by 1 million tonnes — to 15 million tonnes, and for Russia — by 0.5 million tonnes, to 88 million tonnes.
Despite the increase in production, the forecast for global wheat trade was reduced by approximately 0.9 million tonnes — to 211.77 million tonnes.
USDA cut its estimates for Russia’s exports from 46 million tonnes to 43 million tonnes, Ukraine’s — from 13.5 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes, as well as Kazakhstan’s. The decline is partially offset by increased exports from Australia, Canada and Argentina.
The U.S. agency explained the deterioration in the outlook for Russian and Ukrainian exports by weak August shipments amid the fact that the war in the Black Sea region is complicating logistics.
Global wheat consumption is forecast at 826.75 million tonnes, while ending stocks were increased by approximately 3 million tonnes — to 276.29 million tonnes. The main increase in stocks is expected in Russia, Australia and Ukraine.
Primary source — USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates dated September 11, 2026: WASDE-675, September 2026
According to Experts Club, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for corn production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year at 31.8 million metric tons, despite a significant revision to the global corn harvest estimate.
According to the USDA’s September WASDE report, the forecast for Ukrainian corn exports has also remained unchanged at 22 million metric tons. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 7.2 million metric tons, of which 5.5 million metric tons will be used for feed.
At the same time, the U.S. agency raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending corn stocks by 0.6 million metric tons—from 4.86 million metric tons in August to 5.46 million metric tons in September.
Opening stocks were also revised upward—from 2.25 million metric tons to 2.85 million metric tons. Corn imports are expected to be minimal—about 10,000 metric tons.
The situation on the global market is unfolding differently. The USDA has lowered its forecast for global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year by nearly 8 million metric tons—from 1,298.88 million metric tons to 1,290.95 million metric tons.
The forecast for global corn trade was reduced by a much smaller margin—from 210.48 million metric tons to 210.08 million metric tons—and the forecast for ending stocks was lowered from 274.66 million metric tons to 272.10 million metric tons.
The main decline in production is linked, in particular, to worsening forecasts for the United States, India, Kenya, and Russia. At the same time, production estimates for the EU were raised.
Source: USDA WASDE-675 dated September 11, 2026: USDA September Report
The Perfect Group plans to launch its own apartment renovation program for homebuyers in October 2026 and intends to import some of the finishing materials for the program directly from China.
The “7 KVARTAL” residential complex will serve as the pilot project, Perfect Group CEO Oleksiy Koval said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine. The company is also discussing with banks the possibility of offering loans for apartment renovations.
One of the reasons for launching the program was the sharp rise in the cost of construction work and a shortage of renovation crews. According to the developer’s estimates, labor costs today can account for half the cost of renovations or even exceed the cost of materials.
To reduce costs, Perfect Group has reviewed offers from building materials manufacturers in China and is already arranging its first shipments.
In particular, the company intends to use HPL-like panels, which eliminate the need for some traditional processes such as plastering, wall preparation, painting, or wallpapering. According to the developer’s calculations, this solution should reduce renovation time and costs.
The company is also considering importing other construction products from China, including certain types of rebar and facade solutions. At the same time, Perfect Group believes it is more appropriate to source tiles, laminate flooring, and interior doors from Ukrainian manufacturers.
The group’s in-house production is currently focused primarily on aluminum and metal-plastic windows. Looking ahead, the company also does not rule out launching the production of cabinetry.
Perfect Group has been operating in the Ukrainian real estate market since 1991.
The cost of construction work and materials in Ukraine has risen by approximately 30% since the beginning of 2026, with the labor shortage remaining the main factor driving up prices, according to Oleksiy Koval, CEO of Perfect Group.
According to him, labor costs are rising the fastest, followed by construction materials in terms of the rate of increase. However, this estimate of approximately 30% growth does not account for the additional impact of currency fluctuations and indexation.
The cost structure for apartment renovations has also changed. Before the full-scale war, materials accounted for about 70% of renovation costs, while labor accounted for 30%. Now the ratio is closer to 50/50, and in some cases, the cost of labor already exceeds the cost of the materials themselves.
The labor shortage affects more than just finishing work. Developers are having difficulty finding concrete workers, crane operators, and other skilled professionals.
Another factor driving up costs during the fall and winter months may be the expenses associated with providing autonomous power supply to construction sites. During power outages, interior construction work requires the use of diesel generators; accordingly, costs depend on the price of fuel.
Perfect Group already includes generators and uninterruptible power supply systems in the budgets for new projects. Looking ahead, the company is also considering the use of solar panels and gas generators.
According to Koval’s assessment, there are no signs of a slowdown in the growth of construction costs yet.
Perfect Group has been involved in residential and commercial real estate in Ukraine since 1991.
CONSTRUCTION, cost of construction, LABOR, REAL ESTATE, UKRAINE
Ukrainian developers need access to project financing, and securing bank or international loans covering 20–30% of a project’s cost may be sufficient to begin construction, according to Alexei Koval, CEO of the Perfect Group.
As Koval stated in an interview with the Interfax-Ukraine news agency published on September 1, 2026, the financing model for residential construction in Ukraine has changed significantly since the start of the full-scale war. Whereas before 2022 a developer could invest about 10% of its own funds, receiving up to 90% of the resources from buyers, now self-financing at the initial stage can reach 60%.
According to him, Perfect Group is conducting negotiations through its representatives with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. European financial institutions are prepared to consider lending to the Ukrainian private sector at interest rates ranging from 6–8% in euros; however, for affordable housing projects, a rate of 3–4% would be more acceptable.
The company believes that loan financing amounting to 20–30% of the project estimate could make it possible to begin construction, after which mortgage programs, including “єОселя,” could be brought in to finance the project.
Koval also noted that the introduction of escrow accounts for homebuyers without the simultaneous creation of a project financing system for developers could lead to a shortage of resources for launching new projects.
According to his estimates, the profitability of development projects in Ukraine under normal conditions is comparable to that in Europe and stands at about 18–20%.
Perfect Group was founded in 1991. According to the company, over the course of its operations, the group has commissioned more than 110 buildings comprising over 20,000 apartments with a total area of more than 1.5 million square meters.
