The intensification of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s production, logistics, retail and digital facilities is increasingly affecting not only individual companies, but also the growth potential of the economy as a whole. The destruction of enterprises and critical business infrastructure leads to downtime, disruptions in supply chains, higher logistics costs and the need to direct investment resources toward recovery instead of development, reports the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, in August 2026 alone, at least 32 attacks on facilities belonging to Fozzy Group, Epicentr, Nova Poshta, Rozetka, Aurora and Varus were recorded, compared with 11 in July. This figure concerns only the specified group of companies and does not reflect the total number of attacks on Ukrainian businesses.
Warehousing and transport logistics remain among the most vulnerable segments. In August, large distribution and logistics complexes belonging to Rozetka, NOVUS, MTI Group and EVA were destroyed or seriously damaged as a result of attacks. On August 31, a strike on a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa destroyed a key sorting line. In September, production, warehouse and digital facilities of a number of companies were also damaged.
Experts Club founder and Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksym Urakin notes that the economic effect of such attacks significantly exceeds the book value of the destroyed property.
“When a distribution center, factory or data center is destroyed, economic losses cannot be calculated solely on the basis of the value of the facility itself. Along with it, part of production output temporarily disappears, supplies to dozens or hundreds of other companies are disrupted, inventories are lost, logistics and insurance costs increase, and businesses are forced to create backup capacity,” Urakin noted.
According to the joint RDNA5 assessment by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission and the UN, as of the end of 2025, direct damage to Ukraine from the war amounted to $195.1 billion, while recovery needs over the next decade were estimated at $587.7 billion. Direct damage to trade and industry amounted to $19.2 billion, about 85% of which was attributable to industry. At the same time, these estimates do not yet take into account the new destruction of 2026.
The deterioration of the situation has already affected macroeconomic forecasts. In September, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2026 from 2.2% to 1.5%. Among the factors, the EBRD cited intensified attacks on enterprises, energy infrastructure and Black Sea ports, as well as labor shortages, weak business confidence and logistical constraints. The IMF had previously forecast growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2026 at 1–1.6%.
Experts Club emphasizes that the downgrade of forecasts cannot be explained solely by the physical destruction of enterprises. GDP is affected by the duration of downtime, the volume of lost production, the possibility of relocating production to other sites, the state of the energy sector and the speed of restoring logistics links.
Of particular concern is the displacement of investment in development by recovery expenditures. Enterprises have to simultaneously finance repairs, generators and electricity storage systems, backup warehouses, servers and the relocation of production facilities. This supports business continuity but limits the ability to invest in modernization, capacity expansion and the creation of new jobs.
The volume of capital investments in Ukraine in 2025 increased by 25.2% compared to 2024 and amounted to UAH 669.3 billion, the State Statistics Service reported on Tuesday. It is noted that the main source of financing for capital investments last year remained the own funds of enterprises and organizations, which accounted for 71.2% of the total volume.
The agency specified that the share of the state budget amounted to 7%, local budget funds to 6.4%, household funds for housing construction to 5.7%, bank and other borrowed financing to 5.1%, while funds from foreign investors accounted for only 0.1%.
A significant share of capital investments was directed to industry — 38.7% of the total amount of investments (UAH 259.1 billion); transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities — 10.8% (UAH 72.3 billion).
As reported, capital investments in Ukraine in 2024 increased by 35% to UAH 534.4 billion.
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, State Statistics Service, UKRAINIAN ECONOMY
According to the results of a survey conducted by Active Group in collaboration with Experts Club in August 2025, Ukrainians identified priority areas for the development of foreign economic relations.
The majority of respondents – 81.3% – believe that Ukraine should first and foremost develop economic cooperation with the countries of the European Union. The United Kingdom also received a high level of support – 66.5%, while the United States came in third with 62.7%.
Citizens also pay significant attention to Asian countries: 36.2% of respondents support expanding relations with Southeast Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, etc.), and 31.7% with China. At the same time, 29.5% pointed to the importance of deepening cooperation with countries in the Arab and Muslim world.
To a lesser extent, respondents are focused on partnerships with African and South American countries — this direction was supported by 14.8% of Ukrainians. Another 8.3% of respondents were undecided, and 1.0% believe that Ukraine does not need any new economic partnerships.
“These data clearly demonstrate the European and transatlantic orientation of Ukrainians in terms of economic priorities. The EU, the UK, and the US form the basis of foreign economic trust, while Asia and the Arab world are perceived as promising but secondary partners,” commented Active Group Director Oleksandr Pozniy.
According to Experts Club co-founder Maksim Urakin, the survey results confirm the real economic structure of Ukraine’s trade.
“The EU is already Ukraine’s main trading partner, accounting for over 40% of trade turnover, but if we analyze individual countries, China remains the leader. The high levels of support for cooperation with the UK and the US reflect society’s trust in Ukraine’s political and economic partners during this difficult period. At the same time, interest in Asia and the Arab world indicates the need to diversify markets and seek new opportunities in the future,” he stressed.
The survey was conducted using self-completed questionnaires among 800 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, and region.
ACTIVE GROUP, Arab countries, CHINA, EU, EXPERTS CLUB, GREAT BRITAIN, JAPAN, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, SOUTH KOREA, TRADE, UKRAINIAN ECONOMY, URAKIN, USA
The status of a candidate member of the European Union will give impetus to a new trajectory of Ukraine’s GDP growth and a positive signal to investors, Andriy Hunder, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine (ACC), believes.
“The EU candidate status will kick-start a new GDP growth trajectory, while at the same time providing huge morale for post-war economic transformation and reform implementation. Such a move sends a positive signal to investors that Ukraine is moving in the right direction,” he said in a comment to the agency. Interfax-Ukraine.
“There is no future for transparent business in Russia. At the same time, companies will see Ukraine as a priority for post-war investment,” Gunder said.
He also expressed confidence that with a positive decision on such a status by the EU members, Ukraine will make every effort to implement all the necessary reforms as soon as possible. In particular, to introduce real and effective judicial reform, the rule of law, fair justice and the establishment of a level playing field for business.
“We will see a comprehensive approach to creating a strong state and a competitive economy,” Andrei Gunder stressed.
“The message on the status of Ukraine’s candidate for membership in the European Union is clear – Ukraine is returning home. Ukraine is returning to the European family of peoples, the values it shares, and, once and for all, is moving away from the yoke of Russia’s cruel suffocation,” he said.
Acceleration of Ukraine’s membership in the European Union by approximating national legislation in the field of competition, customs, healthcare, protection of intellectual property rights, media, etc. to EU legislation is one of the key priorities for member companies of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine for the post-war economic recovery of Ukraine, added the ACC President.
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE ECONOMY OF UKRAINE AS OF 09/30/2020 (BALANCE, $ MILLION)
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN THE ECONOMY OF UKRAINE IN 2020 (OPERATIONS, $ MILLION)
