Demand for Ukrainian wheat remains high, in particular from Spain, where last week agreements were concluded for the supply of feed wheat at a price of $237-238 per ton with delivery in January, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Rada.
Analysts noted that the world markets are facing competition from Russian wheat, which dominates the markets of Algeria, Tunisia and the Middle East due to its aggressive pricing policy. However, the situation, according to experts, may change in 2025.
“It is expected that from February to June 2025, the Russian Federation will be able to export only 11 million tons due to the introduction of an export quota. This is significantly less than in the previous season, when the quota was 28-29 million tons. An additional factor of influence is the unsatisfactory condition of 30% of winter crops in Russia. We can expect a gradual increase in wheat prices already in December-January, which may amount to $20-25 per ton,” – predicted in ‘Pusk’.
Analysts added that on the domestic market of Ukraine, wheat of 2-3 class remains the main commodity for processors, while exporters are offered feed grain.
The trading corporation Posco International together with Nonghyup Feed, the largest importer of feed grain in Korea, supplied 68,000 tonnes of feed wheat from Ukraine to South Korea.
According to a report on Posco International’s website, out of 68,000 tonnes, 41,000 tonnes were sent through the Ukrainian grain terminal Posco.
“This food import is important because this is the first case of a stable supply of high quality feed grain to South Korea, secured by investments from a domestic company,” the company’s release stated.
Posco International expects that with the first delivery of feed wheat, the company will build a stable national grain procurement system using its own export terminal, expanding imports of wheat and maize.
The company indicated that in September 2019, Posco International completed the construction of an export grain terminal capable of shipping 2.5 million tonnes of grain per year at Mykolaiv Maritime Merchant Port.
It is noted that Posco International’s agricultural business is expanding with the delivery of major grains such as wheat, maize, soybeans and barley, but it all started with rice. The trade volume increased from 840,000 tonnes in 2015 to about 7.5 million tonnes in 2020.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reviewed downwards the forecast for export of Ukrainian wheat in 2019/20 agricultural year (July-June) by 0.5 million tonnes, to 19 million tonnes, and harvest – by 1 million tonnes, to 29 million tonnes, according to a July report of the USDA posted on its website. According to the report, compared with the June report, the forecast for the export of barley in 2019/20 agri-year was also lowered to 4.2 million tonnes (by 0.3 million tonnes) due to the deterioration of the forecast for the production of this crop to 8.5 million tonnes (by 0.5 million tons).
At the same time, the forecast for the export of corn has been increased to 28 million tonnes (by 1 million tonnes) with improving the forecast of the corn harvest to 34 million tonnes (by 1 million tonnes).
Thus, in general, the grain harvest forecast for 2019/20 agri-year in Ukraine has been reduced to 72.55 million tonnes (by 0.5 million tonnes compared with the June forecast), exports increased to 51.39 million tonnes (by 0.2 million tonnes).
As reported, Ukraine’s Agricultural Policy and Food Ministry predicts an increase in the yield of grain in 2019 to 70.8 million tonnes with a gross harvest of grain in the 2018/19 agricultural year at the level of 70.1 million tonnes.
