The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports by 0.5 million tons to 16.0 million tons, leaving corn exports unchanged at 22.0 million tons and wheat and corn production at 23.4 million tons and 26.8 million tons, respectively.
According to the April forecast, the global wheat market in the 2024-2025 marketing year is expected to decrease slightly in production, consumption, and trade volume compared to the previous month’s forecast, while ending stocks are expected to increase.
World wheat production is expected to decline by 0.3 million tons to 796.9 million tons due to lower production estimates in Saudi Arabia and the EU (-0.3 million tons to 121.0 million tons).
World wheat consumption is projected 1.4 million tons lower to 805.2 million tons, mainly due to lower food, seed, and industrial use in India and China.
World trade in MY 2024/2025 is projected 1.3 million tons lower to 206.8 million tons, mainly due to lower export forecasts for Russia (-1.0 million tons to 44.0 million tons), Australia (-0.5 million tons to 25.5 million tons), and the EU (-0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons), only partially offset by higher exports for Canada (+0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons) and Ukraine (+0.5 million tons to 16.0 million tons).
Exports in MY 2024/2025 are expected to be 7% lower than in the previous year.
Projected world ending stocks for MY 2024/2025 are increased by 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million tons, as increases in stocks in India, the Russian Federation, the US and the EU are partially offset by lower stocks in China. World stocks for MY 2024/2025 are now 3% below the previous year and the lowest since MY 2015/2016.
The updated forecasts for the global corn market in MY 2024/2025 assume higher production, consumption, trade volumes and a corresponding reduction in ending stocks.
The forecast for world corn production increased by 0.9 million tons to 1,215.1 million tons. Increases in the EU (+1.3 million tons to 59.3 million tons due to increased harvests in Poland, Croatia, France and Germany, partially offset by decreases in Romania and Bulgaria), Tanzania and Honduras were partially offset by decreases in Moldova, Cambodia and Kenya.
The world export forecast rises by 2.3 million tons to 188.7 million tons. Major changes in world trade for MY 2024/2025 include an increase in projected corn exports for the United States (+2.5 million tons to 64.8 million tons) and a decrease for Pakistan.
Corn ending stocks declined by 1.3 million tons to 287.7 million tons, reflecting lower stocks in the U.S. and higher stocks in South Korea, Pakistan.
Demand for Ukrainian wheat remains high, in particular from Spain, where last week agreements were concluded for the supply of feed wheat at a price of $237-238 per ton with delivery in January, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Rada.
Analysts noted that the world markets are facing competition from Russian wheat, which dominates the markets of Algeria, Tunisia and the Middle East due to its aggressive pricing policy. However, the situation, according to experts, may change in 2025.
“It is expected that from February to June 2025, the Russian Federation will be able to export only 11 million tons due to the introduction of an export quota. This is significantly less than in the previous season, when the quota was 28-29 million tons. An additional factor of influence is the unsatisfactory condition of 30% of winter crops in Russia. We can expect a gradual increase in wheat prices already in December-January, which may amount to $20-25 per ton,” – predicted in ‘Pusk’.
Analysts added that on the domestic market of Ukraine, wheat of 2-3 class remains the main commodity for processors, while exporters are offered feed grain.
The trading corporation Posco International together with Nonghyup Feed, the largest importer of feed grain in Korea, supplied 68,000 tonnes of feed wheat from Ukraine to South Korea.
According to a report on Posco International’s website, out of 68,000 tonnes, 41,000 tonnes were sent through the Ukrainian grain terminal Posco.
“This food import is important because this is the first case of a stable supply of high quality feed grain to South Korea, secured by investments from a domestic company,” the company’s release stated.
Posco International expects that with the first delivery of feed wheat, the company will build a stable national grain procurement system using its own export terminal, expanding imports of wheat and maize.
The company indicated that in September 2019, Posco International completed the construction of an export grain terminal capable of shipping 2.5 million tonnes of grain per year at Mykolaiv Maritime Merchant Port.
It is noted that Posco International’s agricultural business is expanding with the delivery of major grains such as wheat, maize, soybeans and barley, but it all started with rice. The trade volume increased from 840,000 tonnes in 2015 to about 7.5 million tonnes in 2020.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reviewed downwards the forecast for export of Ukrainian wheat in 2019/20 agricultural year (July-June) by 0.5 million tonnes, to 19 million tonnes, and harvest – by 1 million tonnes, to 29 million tonnes, according to a July report of the USDA posted on its website. According to the report, compared with the June report, the forecast for the export of barley in 2019/20 agri-year was also lowered to 4.2 million tonnes (by 0.3 million tonnes) due to the deterioration of the forecast for the production of this crop to 8.5 million tonnes (by 0.5 million tons).
At the same time, the forecast for the export of corn has been increased to 28 million tonnes (by 1 million tonnes) with improving the forecast of the corn harvest to 34 million tonnes (by 1 million tonnes).
Thus, in general, the grain harvest forecast for 2019/20 agri-year in Ukraine has been reduced to 72.55 million tonnes (by 0.5 million tonnes compared with the June forecast), exports increased to 51.39 million tonnes (by 0.2 million tonnes).
As reported, Ukraine’s Agricultural Policy and Food Ministry predicts an increase in the yield of grain in 2019 to 70.8 million tonnes with a gross harvest of grain in the 2018/19 agricultural year at the level of 70.1 million tonnes.
