Ukraine’s real GDP will fall by 31% in 2022 and recover by 8% in 2023 if by the end of 2022 half of the current main negative factors are resolved, and by the end of 2023 they will come to nothing, Concorde Capital investment company predicts.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the second quarter of 2022 fell by 37.2% compared to the second quarter of 2021 after falling by 15.1% in the first quarter of this year, the State Statistics Service published such a preliminary estimate.
The negative dynamics of the economy is still softer than the NBU expected, but the experience of 2014-2015 and the prolongation of the war allow us to assume that the situation may worsen in the future, Oleksandr Paraschiy, the head of the analytical department of Concorde Capital investment company, believes.
Export of goods from Ukraine in August increased by 13.9% compared to July to $3.363 billion, while imports decreased by 2.3% to $4.416 billion, the Ministry of Economy reported.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) preliminary estimates the growth of annual inflation in August at the level of up to 23%, Deputy Governor of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk said.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in August 2022 accelerated to 1.1% from 0.7% in July, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported on Friday. In August last year, 0.2% deflation was recorded, so year-over-year, in August this year, inflation rose to 23.8% from 22.2% in July and 21.5% in June.
Underlying inflation jumped even more last month, to 2.1% from 1.2% in July, 1.6% in June and 1.4% in May.
The draft state budget for 2023, which the government approved on Tuesday, is based on a forecast of 4.6% growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) and 37% nominal growth with inflation up to 30% and an average annual exchange rate of UAH 42/$1, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) kept the key policy rate at 25% at the September 7 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously supported MPC members, the NBU said on its website.
The total area of residential buildings for which construction permits have been issued (new construction) in January-June 2022 decreased by 1.8 times (44.5%) compared to the same period in 2021, to 2.5 million square meters, according to the State Statistics Service.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
The Club of Experts YouTube channel published a new video overview dedicated to current events and events which will take place from October 31 to November 6, 2022. In the video review the founder of the Club of experts Maksim Urakin together with host Olga Levkun discussed the most important announcements of the events in the nearest future.
Particularly in Ukraine in the coming days there will be several events devoted to reconstruction and development of economy, business and innovations implementation. Among them we can single out Digital Regions Week, the opening of which will take place in Bucha (Kiev region) at the Dia.Biznes center on Tuesday. On Wednesday there will be a presentation of the Interactive map of destruction of the Ukrainian agricultural sector where the Minister of Agrarian Policy Mykola Solskyi and the Head of the VR Committee on Agriculture Daniil Hetmantsev are expected to speak. On the same day the II National Conference “Women’s Leadership on Decentralization and Local Self-Government in the Context of War” will be held.
There are also several important events in the world, the most important of which will be by-elections to the U.S. Senate and Congress on November 8, which will determine the party composition of these bodies for the next 6 years. On the economic front, the ADIPEC 2022 strategic oil and gas conference in the UAE and the UN climate change conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt will be of interest.
As for sport events we should mention the next matches of the leading Ukrainian clubs in European competitions, you can read more detailed information about them at sport.ua.
About these and many other events you can watch in the new video on the Club of Experts channel by the link:
Subscribe to the Club of Experts channel here – https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4plQ0XBaoLOKPIXrb1aMGQ
ANNOUNCEMENTS, ATALYTICS, CLUB_EXPERTS, EVENTS, URAKIN, ЛЕВКУН, МАКСИМ_УРАКИН
The Expert Club YouTube channel has released a new video dedicated to the announcement of the events that will take place in Ukraine and the world from October 17 to October 23, 2022. In the new issue, the founder of the Club of Experts Maksim Urakin and co-host Olga Levkun analyzed the main events planned for the coming days.
One of the main events in Ukraine this week will be the start of the IMF mission, the main goal of which will be the development of a new program of cooperation between the fund and Ukraine. Also this week, a number of events are expected to be dedicated to the restoration and development of the Ukrainian economy, the agro-industrial complex, science, education and other topics.
Among world events, a number of conferences in the field of economics can also be distinguished. The European Union will host high-level meetings, in particular of foreign ministers and leaders of countries, dedicated to the situation in Ukraine, energy issues and relations with China. Also next week, the start of the election campaign in Kazakhstan is expected.
The main event in the world of sports in the next 7 days will be the next stage of Formula 1. Read more about future sporting events on the Sport.ua portal. The full version of the video can be viewed at the following link:
You can subscribe to the Expert Club channel here: – https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4plQ0XBaoLOKPIXrb1aMGQ
ANNOUNCEMENTS, EVENTS, EXPERT_CLUB, URAKIN, ЛЕВКУН, МАКСИМ_УРАКИН
Almost 20% of Ukrainians have close relatives with whom they have lost contact as a result of the Russian invasion and do not know where they are. This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted within the framework of the project of the Public Organization “Center for Assistance to the Volunteer Movement “Volunteer.Org”: “Assessment of the damage caused by war crimes of the Russian Federation in Ukraine.”
“Almost 20% reported that they have among their close relatives those with whom they have lost contact and do not know where they are now. Russia or the occupied territories of the east or Crimea. 7% of respondents noted that personally or their close relatives were injured, maimed due to hostilities,” the results of the survey, presented on Wednesday at the Interfax-Ukraine press center, say.
Every tenth respondent indicated that his housing was either completely destroyed (2% of respondents) or damaged (8% of respondents). Another 5% said they did not know the state of their housing now. For 85% of respondents, the housing situation has not changed.
“About a third of those whose house is located in the de-occupied territory or the territory of hostilities noted that their housing was damaged. Also, one in five of those who still have housing in the zone of occupation do not know what condition it is in,” the results say. .
It is also noted that 95% of those surveyed have not contacted law enforcement agencies in the past six months on issues related to the full-scale Russian invasion.
At the same time, special courts with the participation of national and foreign judges (63%) and international institutions (23%) are considered the most effective mechanism for bringing Russia to justice for war crimes.
“A third of the respondents are ready to personally participate in lawsuits in order to demand compensation for lost property / health in courts and international courts,” analysts point out.
According to Oleksandr Kopyl, co-founder of the consulting company K&K Group, head of the Nuremberg-2022 volunteer initiative, which has been collecting and cataloging the crimes of the Russian army against the Ukrainian population since the first day of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, more than three thousand facts have been published by the Nuremberg-2022 initiative alone. war crimes.
“In addition to informing the public, all the facts are sent for further work to the relevant law enforcement agencies of Ukraine, as well as to the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague. We are sure that thanks to the cooperation of public initiatives and state authorities, war crimes will be investigated, and all war criminals will be fairly punished,” Kopyl noted.
The survey and the report were prepared within the framework of the project “Urgent EU support for civil society”, implemented by the Initiative Center for the Promotion of the Activity and Development of the Public Initiative “Unification” with the financial support of the European Union. Its content is the sole responsibility of the Public Organization “Volunteer.Org Volunteering Assistance Center” and does not necessarily reflect the position of the European Union. Expert support and advice during the study was provided by representatives of the Coalition “Ukraine. Five in the morning.”
The survey was conducted among the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older in all regions, except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbass, as well as territories where at the time of the survey there was no Ukrainian mobile communication. The survey period is from 15 to 19 September 2022.
Results are weighted using up-to-date data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, and type of settlement. Sample population: 2000 respondents. Survey method: CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews – telephone interviews using a computer). The error of the representativeness of the study with a confidence probability of 0.95: no more than 2.2%.
We remind you that in April a team of journalists and media workers put forward an initiative to create a project to search for missing people “Find your loved ones”.
We ask citizens whose relatives do not get in touch to send us all the information they have. We recommend using the following form:
1. Full name of the missing person;
2. Your contact details;
3. Photo of the missing person, description of special signs;
4. Approximate place of the last stay of the missing person.
The project is non-commercial, all your appeals will be edited and published free of charge in the media.
The project coordinator is Maxim Urakin, deputy head of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency and publisher of the Open4Business project.
Please send information about the missing to e-mail maksim.urakin@gmail.com
S&P Global Ratings lowered its foreign currency (FC) long-term sovereign credit and issue ratings on Ukraine to ‘CC’ from ‘CCC+’. The outlook on the long-term sovereign rating is negative.
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ukraine’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CC’ from ‘RD’ (restricted default).
The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine expects a decline in GDP of at least 30-35% in 2022, and for the next year it has developed four macroeconomic scenarios, which, depending on the conditions, give from 0.4% further decline to 15.5% of economic growth, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko has reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s trade in goods in July this year amounted to $1.798 billion, which is 4.1 times more than in July last year ($440 million). According to its data, exports of goods in July fell by 47.9% compared to last year, to $2.92 billion, while imports fell by 21.9%, to $4.718 billion. Geographically, in trade with the EU, even an increase in imports was recorded by 9.1%, to $2.651 billion, while exports decreased by 8.3%, to $2.158 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in July 2022 due to seasonal factors slowed down to 0.7% from 3.1% in June and 2.7% in May, returning to the level of the end of last year.
In July last year, inflation was 0.1%, so in annual terms, in July this year, it rose to 22.2% from 21.5% in June and 18% in May.
The loan portfolio of Ukrainian banks in July 2022 decreased by 6% to UAH 1.212 trillion, while the volume of non-performing loans (NPL) increased by 7.1% to UAH 363.682 billion, according to a report on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine ( NBU).
During January-May 2022, Ukraine’s leading retail companies paid about UAH 15 billion in taxes and provided jobs for almost 250,000 employees, the press service of the Retail Association of Ukraine (RAU) reported.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
A new video has been released on the YouTube channel of the Club of Experts, dedicated to the announcement of events that will take place in Ukraine and the world from September 26 to October 2. The founder of the Club of Experts Maksim Urakin and co-host Olga Levkun analyzed the main events planned for the coming days.
So, next week Ukraine will host several major conferences dedicated to economic recovery, development of agriculture and water resources, educational projects, etc.
Among world events, a number of conferences in the field of economics can also be distinguished. In particular, the Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC 2022), the meeting of G-20 agriculture ministers, the global manufacturing and industrialization summit in Pittsburgh, USA GMIS-2022). Also, a number of Western countries, in particular the UK, introduce significant tax incentives for businesses in order to prevent an economic recession.
Among the sporting events, one can single out the next round of the UEFA Nations League, where the most interesting matches will be the confrontation between England and Germany, as well as the return match between Ukraine and Scotland. Read more about future sporting events on the Sport.ua portal. The full version of the video can be viewed at the following link:
You can subscribe to the Expert Club channel here:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4plQ0XBaoLOKPIXrb1aMGQ
ANNOUNCEMENTS, EVENTS, EXPERT_CLUB, URAKIN, ЛЕВКУН, МАКСИМ_УРАКИН
