Business news from Ukraine

Ukraine’s losses from destruction due to a full-scale war against Russia amount to at least $100 billion, the war has led to a complete shutdown of half of Ukrainian enterprises, Oleh Ustenko, adviser to the President of Ukraine, said.
As of March 7, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a fall in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 as a result of Russia’s armed aggression, provided that it ends as soon as possible, by 10% and inflation rises to 20%.
The financial gap of Ukraine in 2022 is estimated from $4.8 billion according to the balance of payments method to $7.4 billion according to the fiscal balance method, such estimates were given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as of March 7 in materials for emergency financing for Ukraine in the amount of $1.4 billion posted on its website.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculation methodology, which takes into account such military conflicts, estimates the fall in GDP due to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine at 35% in 2022, Alternate Executive Director for Ukraine at the IMF Vladislav Rashkovan has said.
The Ukrainian economy is suffering greatly from the war unleashed by Russia, the decline in its GDP could be a third of what it was before the war, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a Foreign Policy Live discussion.
The Ministry of Economy estimates the amount of losses from the Russian invasion of Ukraine at $564.9 billion, First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has said.
The fall in Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) as a result of full-scale Russian military aggression is currently estimated at 35% or more, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
Ukraine’s losses from Russia’s full-scale military aggression, taking into account both the destruction already inflicted on the infrastructure and economy, and future losses in subsequent years, exceed $1 trillion, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
The state budget in January-February 2022 had a surplus in the amount of UAH 24 billion, including a surplus of UAH 13.1 billion for the general fund, with a planned deficit of the general fund for this period of UAH 66.2 billion, the Ministry of Finance reported on its website.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade balance decreased by only 0.2% in 2021 compared to 2020, from $0.678 billion to $0.676 billion. According to it, over the past year, exports of goods and services increased by 34.3%, to $79.724 billion, while imports – by 33.9%, to $80.401 billion.
Ukrainian transport companies carried almost 2.657 billion passengers in 2021, which is 3.4% more than in 2020.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO zone) in 2021 increased transportation of goods by 3.3% compared to 2020 – up to 619.9 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service reported.
In January 2022, retail trade turnover in Ukraine increased by 18% compared to the same month in 2021 in comparable prices, while in December 2021 the growth was 5.1%.
Production of grains and oilseeds in 2022 in Ukraine is preliminary estimated at 53.3 million tonnes, which is 51% lower than the previous season’s record, due to the Russian military invasion and ongoing hostilities, this year’s harvest may be minimum for the last 10-15 years.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin

Real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the fourth quarter of 2021 grew by 5.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 after rising by 2.7% in the third quarter, the State Statistics Service published such a preliminary estimate. Fitch Ratings forecasts GDP growth of 2.9% in 2022, from 3.0% in 2021, a 1pp downward revision from the August review due to slowing growth in real wages and private consumption, a drag on domestic demand from heightened geopolitical risk, and the high gas price.
The level of the shadow economy in Ukraine in January-September 2021 amounted to 31% of GDP, which is 1 p.p. less compared to the corresponding period in 2020, the Ministry of Economy said.
In 2021 inflation in Ukraine rose to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019, while underlying inflation rose to 7.9% against 4.5% a year earlier.
Since 2014, the conflict with the Russian Federation has cost Ukraine 19.9% of its pre-conflict GDP annually, totaling $280 billion in lost GDP in 2014-2020.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade balance decreased by only 0.2% in 2021 compared to 2020, from $0.678 billion to $0.676 billion.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services decreased by 4.2% in 2021 compared to 2020, to $5.563 billion (in 2020, the surplus was at $5.809 billion), the State Statistics Service reported. The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods decreased by 8.1% in 2021 compared to 2020, to $4.728 billion from $5.144 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in January 2022 accelerated to 1.3% from 0.6% in December and 0.8% in November 2021, the State Statistics Service reported.
As of February 25, state budget revenues amounted to UAH 97 billion, including a payment in the amount of UAH 18.8 billion from the National Bank of Ukraine, and there are all possibilities to make payments, Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko has said.
Ukraine sold industrial products (goods, services) for UAH 3.584 trillion in 2021, which is 44.5% more than in 2020 (UAH 2.481 trillion), including for UAH 1.019 trillion outside the country.
Since the beginning of 2021/22 (July-June) and as of February 21, Ukraine has exported 42.54 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 37.3% higher than the figures for the same date of the previous year.
Real wages in Ukraine in December 2021 increased by 11.9% compared to December 2020, and compared to November 2021, the growth was 21.5%.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin.