Over the first eight months of the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine exported 9.03 million tons of wheat, with Egypt (2.36 million tons) and Algeria (1.6 million tons) becoming the largest buyers. Indonesia ranked third with 1.4 million tons, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) reported.
Among the top ten buyers of Ukrainian wheat, the UGA also names Yemen with 758 thousand tons, Vietnam with 531 thousand tons, Lebanon with 322 thousand tons, Spain with 304 thousand tons, Tunisia with 284 thousand tons, Italy with 197 thousand tons, and Thailand with 177 thousand tons. This supply structure shows that the main export destinations for Ukrainian wheat remain the countries of the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
As of early March, customs statistics had already recorded exports of about 9.1 million tons of wheat and 22.3 million tons of grains and legumes in total since the start of the season. This is 25% less than on the same date of the previous marketing year. For comparison, in the 2024/25 MY, Ukraine exported 15.7 million tons of wheat and 40.6 million tons of grains and legumes overall.
At the same time, the Ukrainian government stated in November that it did not plan to restrict wheat exports during the current season. According to Deputy Minister of Economy Taras Vysotskyi, the 2025 wheat harvest will amount to about 23 million tons, while exports in the 2025/26 MY may reach approximately 17 million tons. This means that, based on the results of the first eight months, Ukraine has already shipped more than half of the expected seasonal volume.
The growing role of Egypt and Algeria became noticeable as early as the first half of the season. According to Elevatorist, citing APK-Inform analysts, from July to November Egypt increased its purchases of Ukrainian wheat to 2 million tons compared with 664 thousand tons a year earlier, while Algeria increased them to 932 thousand tons compared with 526 thousand tons. Indonesia, during the same period, on the contrary, slightly reduced its imports of Ukrainian wheat to 1.41 million tons.
In the opinion of the Experts Club analytical center, the change in export geography appears to be structural. Back in the summer, the Ukrainian authorities directly pointed out that after the EU restrictions on imports of Ukrainian wheat, part of the volume would have to be redirected to the markets of North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. At the beginning of January, exports of Ukrainian wheat were already clearly concentrated in the MENA direction: during the first eight days of the month, shipments were focused primarily on Algeria, Egypt, and Yemen, while EU activity was minimal.
For Ukraine, this means that the markets of Egypt, Algeria, Indonesia, and other Global South countries are becoming key for monetizing the harvest and generating foreign currency revenues for the agricultural sector. At the same time, such a model increases dependence on stable maritime logistics through the Black Sea corridor, competitiveness against Russian and Romanian grain, and solvent demand in importing countries of the Mediterranean and Asia.
Prices for wheat in the ports of Greater Odessa (CPT port basis) began to rise this week, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
According to monitoring data, as of March 11, 2026, traders’ prices for class 2 wheat most often range from 10,600 to 11,000 UAH/ton CPT port, which is 100-150 UAH/ton higher than at the end of the previous week. In dollar terms, demand prices also rose and amounted to $215-225/ton CPT port.
According to analysts, prices were supported by the rise in grain prices on a FOB basis amid increased demand and restrained sales by farmers, as well as the devaluation of the national currency against the dollar.
“Individual export-oriented companies declared lower prices due to the lack of need to urgently form volumes to fulfill previously concluded contracts,” the agency stated.
Wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) are expected to reach 17.6 million tons, which is 11.5% more than in the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC).
The association estimates the gross harvest for the current season at 23.1 million tons, which is 2.9% more than in 2024/2025 MY.
According to analysts, the increase in production was made possible by the expansion of cultivated areas to 5.1 million hectares (by 4.8%), which offset the decline in average yield to 4.5 tons/hectare due to unfavorable weather conditions. At the same time, the current harvest is still 6.2% below the average for the last five years.
The UACB predicts that the increase in harvest will allow for an increase in shipments after a drop in exports in the previous season to 15.8 million tons. Experts cite the stable operation of Ukraine’s own sea route as the main factor in the recovery.
At the same time, domestic demand in Ukraine continues to decline due to the temporary occupation of territories and population migration. Total wheat consumption in 2025/2026 MY is forecast at 6.2 million tons, of which 3.7 million tons will be used for food, 1.5 million tons for feed, and 825,000 tons for seeds.
“The Ukrainian wheat market is demonstrating adaptability. Despite demographic challenges and weather conditions, farmers are managing to increase their acreage. Domestic needs are fully met, and the successful operation of export routes allows for the restoration of positive supply dynamics and guarantees Ukraine’s stable presence in key markets in Europe, Africa, and Asia,” the UCAAB concluded.
Wheat prices in Ukraine will continue to rise until at least mid-March due to reduced supplies from the Black Sea region and limited supply from producers, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“Due to logistical constraints, the export volumes of one of Ukraine’s key competitors may fall by almost half. Accordingly, global importers will have to buy about 1–1.5 million tons of wheat from other suppliers, including Ukraine, Romania, and France,” analysts said.
According to experts, there is an imbalance in the domestic market: traders are actively contracting grain, while farmers are holding back sales. This leads to a weekly increase in wheat prices of $1–2 per ton. Weather risks and the threat of winter crop losses due to frost remain an additional factor supporting prices.
Currently, the conditional prices for food wheat (11.5% protein) on a CPT-port basis are $215–220 per ton. At the beginning of March, prices are expected to strengthen to $220–225 per ton.
Further price movements after mid-March will be determined by the condition of winter crops and the overall global market situation, Pusk concluded.
Agroholding Agrotrade exported over 333,000 tons of grains and oilseeds in 2025, according to the company’s press service on Facebook.
According to the report, 187,000 tons were produced in-house, while another 146,000 tons were supplied by third-party producers. The main export destinations remained Turkey, Egypt, Italy, and other countries in the Mediterranean region.
“The 2025 season has once again confirmed that flexibility and reputation are crucial in conditions of increased risk. Despite the difficult security situation, logistical constraints, and downtime, the Agrotrade Group’s export program was carried out without disruption throughout the year. Even when infrastructure comes to a standstill and risks for shipowners increase, our task is to fulfill our commitments. This is what allows us to maintain the trust of our international partners and continue our work,” said Andriy But, director of the agroholding’s foreign economic activity department.
Corn and wheat accounted for the bulk of exports. At the same time, there was a decline in soybean exports due to changes in the regulatory environment and the reorientation of part of the market toward domestic processing.
The agricultural holding also predicts that low export rates from Ukraine in the current season may lead to the formation of significant transitional stocks, which will affect the prices of the future harvest.
The Agrotrade Group of Companies is a vertically integrated holding company covering the entire agro-industrial cycle (production, processing, storage, and trade in agricultural products). It cultivates over 70,000 hectares of land. Its core crops are sunflower, corn, winter wheat, soybeans, and rapeseed. It has its own network of elevators with a one-time storage capacity of 570,000 tons.
The group also produces hybrid seeds of corn, sunflower, barley, and winter wheat. In 2014, a seed plant with a capacity of 20,000 tons of seeds per year was built on the basis of the Kolos seed farm (Kharkiv region).
The founder of Agrotrade is Vsevolod Kozhemyako.
Astarta, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, reduced its sales volume by 27.4% in October-December 2025 compared to the same period in 2025, and its revenue by 19% due to a significant decline in wheat and sugar sales, which was not offset by revenue growth in the corn, sunflower, and soybean oil segments.
According to data published by the holding on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, in October-December 2025, the company sold a total of UAH 5.16 billion worth of its main products, compared to UAH 6.37 billion in the first half of 2024.
In particular, sugar sales in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 20% in physical terms compared to the same period in 2024, to 85,265 thousand tons, while the average selling price decreased by 12%, to UAH 19,537 per ton.
Astarta’s wheat sales in the fourth quarter decreased by 81% to 29,683 thousand tons, and the average price decreased by 15% to UAH 8.58 thousand/ton.
Corn sales in the fourth quarter increased by 46% to 48,886 thousand tons amid a 1% decrease in price to UAH 9,328 per ton.
In addition, Astarta increased sales of sunflower seeds in October-December by 30% to 26,793 thousand tons, while the selling price rose by 18% to UAH 24.82 thousand/ton.
Rapeseed sales for the reporting period decreased by 2% to 17.74 thousand tons, while the cost of production increased by 11% to UAH 23.22 thousand/ton.
Soybean sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 decreased by 97% compared to the same period in 2024 to 23 tons, while the price of the product increased by 44% to UAH 39,126 per ton.
Sales of soybean oil in the fourth quarter increased by 20% to 15.619 thousand tons, and the price of the product also increased by 17% to UAH 48.083 thousand/ton. Sales of soybean meal increased by 42% to 60,875 thousand tons, while prices for it fell by 8% to UAH 15,716 per ton.
The agricultural holding’s milk sales in October-December 2025 increased by 10% to 31,017 thousand tons, while the price of the product decreased by 14% to UAH 19.25 thousand/ton.
Overall, Astarta showed mixed dynamics in October-December: a significant drop in sales of wheat (-81%) and sugar (-20%) was partially offset by an increase in sales of corn (+46%) and soybean products. Despite the overall decline in prices for grains and sugar, the soybean and oil segment showed growth in average sales prices (by 44% and 17%, respectively), which allowed the agricultural holding to balance its cash inflows.
Sales and average selling prices of Astarta’s key products in Q4 2025.
Data: Astarta
