On the European market, prices for wheat and corn fell on Monday and Tuesday, while prices for rapeseed and soybeans may remain lower due to the escalation of hostilities in Ukraine last week, German publication Agrarheute.com reported.
Analysts say that the wheat market, which was supported by the escalation of the situation in Ukraine for most of last week, is under pressure due to the lack of new elements, the publication writes.
German experts attribute the decline in wheat and corn prices to the fall of the euro against the dollar: last Friday, its rate was recorded at $1.0333, a two-year low.
“The fall in the euro actually supports European wheat exports (and wheat prices) and slows down high imports of corn and rapeseed,” the resource noted.
Meanwhile, according to most analysts, the dominance of Black Sea wheat remains a factor that puts pressure on the European market, especially given the recent drop in Russian wheat prices. At the same time, wheat from the southern hemisphere is becoming increasingly important on the market.
Agrarheute referred to the data of the European Commission, according to which the European Union has already imported 3.5 mln tonnes of soft wheat since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year as of November 17, of which 2.5 mln tonnes, or approximately 70%, came from Ukraine, and the rest – from Canada, Moldova, the USA and Serbia. The main recipients were Spain (almost 2 million tons) and Italy (530 thousand tons).
“Starting December 1, Ukraine will introduce a system of minimum export prices for agricultural products, including wheat, corn and barley. Minimum prices will be calculated by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy on a monthly basis, and exports below these prices will be prohibited,” the publication noted.
Experts emphasized the difficulty of forecasting the situation on the global agricultural market due to the introduction of the mechanism of setting minimum export prices for agricultural products by Ukraine and its impact on the structure of the harvest and Ukrainian exports.
“We are quickly approaching the holiday season, which means there is less fundamental data to trade on the grain markets than we usually get in the rest of the year,” the publication quoted Kaden Sweeney, hedge strategist and market analyst at AgMarket.net, as saying.
Since the December USDA report is always similar to the November report, we probably won’t have any new supply and demand data until January 10, Agrarheute concluded.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2024/2025 marketing year (MY, July 2024/June 2025) by another 1 million tons to 16.0 million tons.
As stated in the October USDA report on Friday evening, such revision was made due to an increase in the crop estimate from 22.3 million tons to 22.9 million tons, as well as a decrease in the estimate of domestic consumption from 7.0 million tons to 6.7 million tons and transitional residues from 1.09 million tons to 0.99 million tons.
The U.S. agency recalls that last MY the wheat harvest in Ukraine amounted to 23.0 million tons, exports – 18.58 million tons, while corn – 32.5 million tons and 29.6 million tons, respectively.
USDA forecasts world wheat production in the 2024/2025 season at 794.08 (-2.8 million tons to September forecast) and world exports at 215.82 million tons (-0.69 million tons).
The estimate of both world corn production to 1 billion 217.19 (-1.38 million tons to the September forecast) and world exports to 190.50 million tons (-0.87 million tons) has also been downgraded.
Zakhidnyi Buh PE will build a processing complex for processing soft and durum wheat into flour with a capacity of more than 75 thousand tons per year, Volodymyr Boichuk, the company’s project manager for the Mill and Pasta Factory, said on Facebook.
“This will be the first project of this scale in Ukraine to process durum wheat, which we will launch in 2025. The design capacity of the mills will be more than 75 thousand tons per year. This will make it possible to produce high-quality bakery flour and cereals for pasta production,” he said, adding that preparatory work has already been completed.
At full capacity, the pasta factory is expected to produce about 50,000 tons of various products per year, including traditional pasta of various shapes and instant pasta. The assortment will include more than 50 products.
Zakhidnyi Buh PE was founded in 2003. It cultivates about 65 thousand hectares in Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Volyn and Lviv regions. The company specializes in growing grain and industrial crops, producing and selling seeds, and provides services of elevators and an agrochemical laboratory.
It consists of 10 agricultural divisions, three elevators with a simultaneous storage capacity of 88 thousand tons, a seed plant with a capacity of 200 tons per day, an agrochemical laboratory that provides soil and water analysis services, etc.
The beneficiaries of the agricultural holding are Oksana Drul, Valeriy Ovcharuk and Yuriy Gladun.
According to the Opendatabot index, in 2024, Zakhidnyi Buh PE entered the Top 10 most profitable agricultural companies in Ukraine. It accounted for 5.9% of the top ten’s revenue. It is specified that in 2023, the agricultural holding’s revenue amounted to UAH 86.57 billion.
One of the largest operators of the Ukrainian grain market, JV Nibulon LLC, shipped the second batch of 63 thsd tonnes of wheat to Egypt under the tender of the General Authority for Supply of Goods of the Egyptian government GASC via the Danube Grain Corridor, the grain trader’s press service reported on its Facebook page.
According to the report, the grain was loaded on the EDFU vessel, owned by the Egyptian state-owned company National Navigation Company (NNC), at the anchorage PGM-2 of TTS Operator SRL (Constanza).
“Thanks to the well-coordinated and professional work of the Nibulon fleet team and our strategic partners, TTS (Transport Trade Services), the daily grain loading rate reached a record 18.2 thousand tons. This high productivity is very important, because along with a stable cargo flow, it allows us to reduce delivery costs,” said Nibulon’s Chief Logistics Officer Sergey Kalkutin, Director of Logistics at Nibulon.
He emphasized that such voyages allow the Danube Grain Corridor to compete with the ports of Greater Odesa.
In times of war and permanent danger, having a full-fledged alternative logistics channel for grain exports is not an additional option, but a vital necessity on which the world’s food security depends, Nibulon believes.
As reported, in August, Nibulon delivered the first shipment of Ukrainian grain to Egypt under the GASC.
Nibulon JV LLC was established in 1991. Prior to the Russian military invasion, the grain trader had 27 transshipment terminals and crop reception complexes, a one-time storage capacity of 2.25 million tons of agricultural products, a fleet of 83 vessels (including 23 tugs), and owned the Mykolaiv Shipyard.
“Before the war, Nibulon cultivated 82 thousand hectares of land in 12 regions of Ukraine and exported agricultural products to more than 70 countries. In 2021, the grain trader exported the highest ever volume of 5.64 million tons of agricultural products, reaching record volumes of supplies to foreign markets in August – 0.7 million tons, in the fourth quarter – 1.88 million tons, and in the second half of the year – 3.71 million tons.
Nibulon’s losses due to Russia’s full-scale military invasion in 2022 exceeded $416 million.
Currently, the grain trader is operating at 32% of capacity, has created a special unit to clear agricultural land of mines, and was forced to move its headquarters from Mykolaiv to Kyiv.
The State Agency of Ukraine for the Development of Land Reclamation, Fisheries and Food Programs (State Agency) has announced a tender for the purchase of 10.741 thsd tonnes of wheat (not lower than grade 3) of Ukrainian origin for the Republic of Sudan, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reports.
According to the report, the grain will have to be delivered on FOB terms to the deep-water ports of the Black Sea or the ports of the Danube River. The expected value of the procurement item is UAH 80.498 million.
The deadline for submitting bids is September 19, 2024. The electronic auction will be held on September 20, 2024.
“One of the requirements for potential bidders is the absence of ties with Russia, Belarus and Iran,” the ministry said.
Detailed information about the tender is available here: https://prozorro.gov.ua/uk/tender/UA-2024-08-20-008626-a.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August report raised its wheat harvest forecast for Ukraine in the 2024/2025 marketing year (MY, July 2024/June 2025) by 10.8% to 21.6 million tons, and exports by 7.7% to 14 million tons
Analysts also revised upward the domestic consumption of wheat in Ukraine by 10.5% to 7.4 million tons. Ukraine will enter the season with starting residues of 770,000 tons, while a month earlier they amounted to 1.08 million tons. USDA expects that by the end of 2024/2025 MY the country will have 1.05 mln tons of wheat, which is 9.4% higher than the July forecast.
At the same time, USDA forecasts world wheat production for the 2024/2025 season at 798.28 (+ 2.18 million tons from last forecast) and world exports at 214.86 million tons (+ 1.98 million tons). The experts lowered the forecast of wheat ending stocks in the world to 256.62 million tons (- 1.97 million tons).
