The deficit of Ukraine’s state budget for 2019 was UAH 78.05 billion with the ceiling set in the national budget being UAH 91.13 billion, while in 2018 the deficit of the national budget was UAH 59.25 billion with the ceiling of UAH 94.1 billion. According to the updated information posted by the State Treasury Service of Ukraine on its website, the deficit of the general fund was UAH 68.85 billion with the ceiling being UAH 69.62 billion.
In the early days of this year, the Ministry of Finance, citing recent data from the State Treasury Service, reported on the deficit of the national budget last year in the amount of UAH 72.4 billion, or 1.8% of GDP.
The 2019 state budget deficit was almost entirely funded by borrowings, as revenues from privatization amounted to only UAH 550 million, i.e. 3.2% of the initial budget assignment.
In accordance with the updated data of the State Treasury Service, the national budget receipts for 2019 increased 7.6%, to UAH 998.28 billion, including growth of 5.5% for the general fund, to UAH 879.83 billion.
Compared with the indicators laid down in the law on the national budget, the receipts target was met by 99.1%, including 96.9% for the general fund.
Last year, national budget expenditures amounted to UAH 1.073 trillion, which is 8.7% more than the expenses of the national budget 2018, including growth of 8.4% for the general fund, to UAH 952.98 billion.
Compared with the indicators laid down in the law on the national budget, the expenditure target was met by 98.2%, including 96.9% for the general fund.
The national budget of Ukraine for 2020 was approved with receipts of UAH 1.095 trillion, including UAH 975.17 billion for the general fund, and expenditure of UAH 1.182 trillion, including UAH 1.052 trillion for the general fund. The ceiling for the deficit is set at UAH 94.3 billion, or 2.09% of forecast GDP.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-June 2019 increased by 36.3% compared with January-June 2018, to $3.736 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported. According to its data, export of goods from Ukraine for the specified period grew by 5.2%, to $24.469 billion, while imports by 8.5%, to $28.205 billion.
The service said that in June 2019 the seasonally adjusted export volume decreased by 3.7% compared to May 2019, to $4.081 billion, while imports by 0.2%, to $5.248 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in June was also negative and amounted to $1.167 billion, which is 14.4% more than in the previous month.
The service said that foreign trade operations were carried out with partners from 214 countries of the world.
The ratio of coverage of imports by exports amounted to 0.87.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-June 2019 amounted to UAH 871 million, in particular the general fund deficit was UAH 8.67 billion with the target being UAH 22.99 billion, the State Treasury Service has said.
According to the agency, government borrowings for the six months amounted to UAH 246.8 billion, while debt repayment some UAH 210.67 billion.
In general, the national budget for this period received UAH 506.85 billion of revenues, the general fund revenues amounted to UAH 448.4 billion with the target being UAH 476.36 billion.
The national budget expenditures in January-June of this year were at the level of UAH 508.56 billion, in particular UAH 459.33 billion on the general fund with the plan standing at UAH 502 billion.
According to the report of the agency, local budgets in this period posted a surplus of UAH 21.93 billion, while the surplus of the general fund amounted to UAH 39 billion.
The surplus of the consolidated budget in the first half of the year was UAH 21 billion, including UAH 30.38 billion in the general fund.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-May 2019 increased by 27.4% compared with January-May 2018, to $2.634 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported. According to its data, export of goods from Ukraine for the specified period grew by 7.4%, to $20.895 billion, while imports by 9.3%, to $23.529 billion.
The service said that in May 2019 the seasonally adjusted export volume increased by 5.4% compared to April 2019, to $4.368 billion, while imports by 4.3%, to $5.257 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in May was also negative and amounted to $890 million, which is 1.1% more than in the previous month.
The service said that foreign trade operations were carried out with partners from 211 countries of the world.
The ratio of coverage of imports by exports amounted to 0.89.
The deficit of Ukraine’s balance of trade in 2020 would grow from $13.78 billion to $14.92 billion in 2021 and $16.11 billion in 2022. The baseline forecast for social and economic development of Ukraine for 2020-2022, approved by government resolution No. 555 dated May 15, was posted on the government’s website.
The document suggests the second scenario of macroeconomic indicators for 2020–2022, which imposes higher risks, but it also implies an increase in the deficit of the balance of trade from $13.96 billion in 2020 to $15.60 billion in 2021 and $17.25 billion in 2022.
According to the resolution, the balance of trade was determined according to the balance of payments methodology, according to which in 2018 the deficit rose to $11.29 billion from $8.64 billion a year earlier.
The macroeconomic forecast, approved earlier by the government for 2019, suggests an increase in the deficit this year to $11.75 billion. According to the document, in the next two years the deficit was expected to increase to $12.20 billion and $12.98 billion, respectively.
In the new forecast, the growth of the deficit of the balance of trade is forecasted, first of all, due to a slightly higher rate of increase in imports compared to exports. In particular, in the first scenario: in 2020 – 8% and 7.6%, respectively, in 2021 – 7.1% and 6.9% and in 2022 – 7.3% and 7.1%.
According to the baseline scenario, the unemployment rate (according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization) in Ukraine will decrease moderately: in 2020 – to 8.1%, in 2021 – to 8%, in 2022 – to 7.9% compared to with 8.9% previously included in the forecast for the current year.
According to the pessimistic scenario, the unemployment rate in Ukraine in the next three years will remain at the level of 8.6-8.7%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved the forecast for forex reserves as of late 2019 from $20.6 billion to $21.2 billion, from $21.4 billion to $21.9 billion as of late 2020 and from $21.4 billion to $21.8 billion as of late 2021. According to data released by the central bank on Thursday, the assessment of the deficit in the consolidated balance of payments for 2019 has also been improved from $1.1 billion to $0.3 billion, while for 2020-2021 it is confirmed at the level of $0.1 billion and $0.7 billion respectively.
At the same time, the NBU worsened the forecast of the current account deficit: for the current year – from $4.5 billion to $4.9 billion, for the next year – from $5.6 billion to $5.8 billion, and for 2021 – from $6.2 billion to $6.7 billion
In relation to GDP, the assessment of the current account deficit for 2019 is worsened from 3.1% of GDP to 3.3% of GDP, for 2020 it is confirmed at the level of 3.6% of GDP, and for 2021 it is worsened from 3.9% of GDP to 4% Of GDP.
As reported, at the end of 2018, Ukraine had forex reserves of $20.8 billion, a surplus of the consolidated balance of payments of $2.9 billion and a current account deficit of $4.5 billion or 3.4% of GDP.