According to Serbian Economist, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic stated that the country needs “bold and important decisions” and serious reforms in the near future, rather than “revolutionary chaos.” He wrote this in an op-ed for Kurir.
According to Vučić, Serbia must change not only its institutions but also the habits of society, as the country’s future will be determined by hard work, discipline, and the ability to adapt to new technological and energy challenges.
The first point of the plan concerns downsizing the government apparatus. Vučić advocated for a sharp reduction in the number of government members, state secretaries, deputy ministers, and related administrative structures. He also stated the need to abolish a number of agencies, offices, and departments which, in his assessment, lack sufficient justification for their existence. Separately, the president mentioned economic deregulation, including the elimination of unnecessary certification of goods from the EU, which makes them more expensive in Serbia than in the European Union.
The second section concerns labor productivity. Vučić opposed the idea of reducing working hours and stated that Serbia must “work more, not less.” According to him, the country cannot afford an approach that attempts to boost motivation by reducing the number of workdays or hours. He cited Germany as an example, which, in his view, will be forced to increase the workload to compete with China and the United States.
The third point of the plan is a comprehensive reform of education. The president stated that Serbia needs a more open system of higher and vocational education, as well as more active implementation of dual education. According to him, preparing young people for the labor market must become one of the central priorities of educational policy.
The fourth point concerns energy. Vučić stated that Serbia needs to comprehensively address energy issues, including the construction of oil pipelines, gas pipelines, interconnectors, hydroelectric power plants, wind farms, and solar power plants. However, he said that without small and large nuclear power plants, the country will not be able to ensure long-term energy stability. The president called nuclear energy “the cleanest and safest” and noted that one of the main challenges for the future government will be securing the expertise and funding for such projects.
The fifth point is devoted to artificial intelligence, robotics, and modern technologies. Vučić advocated for the “aggressive” acquisition of new knowledge and the continued procurement of supercomputers and construction of data centers. He called data centers “factories of intelligence” that could give Serbia an advantage in the region. At the same time, the president directly linked digital development to the energy sector, noting that the construction of data centers should not be halted due to a shortage of electricity.
For the Serbian economy, the proposed plan represents an attempt to combine administrative reform, increased labor efficiency, technological modernization, and a new energy strategy. In practice, the most challenging aspects may be downsizing the bureaucracy, abandoning populist ideas regarding the labor market, and preparing the country for nuclear energy, which will require significant investment, specialists, a regulatory framework, and public consensus.
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Six Ukrainian economic forecasters and analytical teams have been included in the international Best Economic Forecast Awards ranking, published annually by FocusEconomics, based on results for 2025.
Among the Ukrainian participants in the ranking are Dmytro Taranenko and Olena Belan from Dragon Capital, Oleksiy Blinov from Forbes Ukraine and Blinov Forecasting, Vitaliy Kravchuk and Oleksandra Betliy from the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER), Hryhoriy Kukuruza from Ukraine Economic Outlook, and the ICU analytical team.
The FocusEconomics ranking covers more than 100 countries worldwide, and for Ukraine, it takes into account forecasts from 32 analytical teams at international banks, research centers, and rating agencies. The winners in each category are the participants whose forecasts proved to be the most accurate.
In the overall ranking for Ukraine, S&P Global Market Intelligence took first place, Dragon Capital second, and Alexey Blinov third. In the GDP forecasting category, Dmitry Taranenko and Elena Belan also took second place, while Vitaly Kravchuk and Alexandra Betliy took third.
In the inflation forecasting category, Taranenko and Belan took first place among analysts in Ukraine, Blinov took second, and S&P Global Market Intelligence took third. In the category of policy rate forecasting, first place went to Alexey Blinov. In the state budget balance forecast category, second place went to the ICU team, while in the balance of payments forecast category, first place went to Grigory Kukuruza, and third place again to Alexey Blinov.
In the exchange rate forecasting category, only foreign analytical centers were among the leaders. This shows that Ukrainian experts are particularly strong in assessing domestic macroeconomic indicators, while international players currently hold the leading positions in currency forecasts.
Industrial producer prices in Ukraine rose by 2.3% in March compared to the previous month of 2026, following a 22.3% increase in February and a 3.5% increase in January, according to the State Statistics Service (SSS).
“In March, the rise in prices was primarily driven by a 4.8% increase in costs in the mining and quarrying sector,” the State Statistics Service noted.
According to the agency’s data, on an annualized basis (compared to March 2025), industrial price growth accelerated to 36.6% by the end of March 2026, up from 34.5% in February and 11.2% in January.
As reported, industrial prices rose by 8.2% in 2025.
ECONOMY, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS, INDUSTRY, State Statistics Service
The global fuel crisis, which has unfolded against the backdrop of the war in Iran, is having a price impact on Ukraine’s economy; however, it will not significantly affect economic activity as long as there is no fuel shortage, according to Natalia Shpygotska, a senior analyst at Dragon Capital.
“We expect GDP growth this year to reach 1.5%. And specifically regarding the fuel crisis, we do not expect rising fuel prices to have a significant impact on economic activity until global turbulence leads to a significant fuel shortage in the country,” she noted during the Center for Economic Strategy’s April economic review, which featured the special topic “How is the fuel crisis affecting the Ukrainian economy?”
“As for inflation expectations, our current year-end inflation forecast is 7.1%. We revised it upward by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous forecast, in part to account for rising fuel prices, as well as our revision of the exchange rate,” Shpygotska added.
According to her, Dragon Capital’s forecast is based on the assumption that in the coming months, the war or hostilities regarding Iran will be suspended, allowing global oil prices to stabilize at a level closer to $70 per barrel. At the same time, if global oil prices remain high for longer and hover around $100 per barrel throughout the year, this will carry the risk of inflation in Ukraine rising by 2 percentage points, “that is, closer to 9%.”
Shpyhotska also noted that the transportation sector was the first to be directly affected by rising fuel prices, particularly the nearly 50% increase in diesel prices, resulting in higher transportation costs for both major economic players and companies providing transportation services.
Although, as the Dragon Capital analyst noted, the rise in prices for transportation services is not yet proportional to the rise in retail diesel prices, it is nevertheless present.
At the same time, she noted that in other sectors, particularly the agricultural sector, where transportation costs account for up to 10% of total expenses, the impact on financial results may not be as significant.
“However, if high oil prices persist longer and we begin to see second-order effects—such as rising prices for fertilizers and other components of production costs, as well as the passing on of higher transportation costs to other goods and services—the long-term impact could be more pronounced,” the analyst noted.
Natalia Kolisnichenko, a senior economist at the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), reported that according to a survey of businesses and companies, 9% of them did not feel the impact of the fuel crisis, while 66% felt a significant or moderate impact, noting that it was primarily price-related.
“76% reported that their transportation and logistics costs had increased first and foremost, while 53% reported that they had not experienced any disruptions in their operations. This also confirms that the main factor for us right now is price-related. 20% of businesses have already passed on increased production costs to consumer prices, and the rest plan to do so in the near future, as businesses lack the resources to keep prices unchanged,” said the CES senior economist.
According to her, inflationary risks are rising for all goods and services, as they all have a fuel component.
She also added that 24% of the surveyed companies have not yet been able to assess the impact of the fuel crisis.
According to Serbian Economist, Montenegro is entering 2026 with relatively stable GDP growth, but with significant external imbalances and a growing role for fiscal policy as the main instrument of macroeconomic regulation. The country uses the euro as legal tender and is effectively deprived of standard monetary policy tools, so the key challenges for the economy lie in the budget, debt management, and structural reforms.
According to preliminary statistical data, Montenegro’s real GDP grew by 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. Estimates from international organizations generally fall within a range of around 3%: the IMF mission, for example, indicated a baseline growth forecast of 3.2% for 2025, attributing this, in particular, to a moderate tourism season.
Prices rose moderately in 2025, but inflationary pressures intensified by the fall. According to MONSTAT, consumer prices in January–November 2025 were on average 3.9% higher than in the same period a year earlier, and in December 2025, inflation stood at 4.0% year-on-year.
According to MONSTAT’s labor force survey, the unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2025 stood at 10.1% (with an employment rate of 56.0%). For an economy with a high share of services, this indicates a persistent structural gap between seasonal employment and stable jobs outside the tourist peak.
The IMF expected the general government deficit to widen to 3.6% of GDP in 2025 (after 2.9% of GDP in 2024). At the same time, the debt trajectory appeared manageable throughout the year: according to the Ministry of Finance, total public debt stood at €4.76 billion, or 58.59% of GDP, as of the end of September (compared to 61% of GDP at the end of 2024, according to the same source).
Tourism once again confirmed its status as a key generator of foreign exchange revenue.
The Central Bank reported that in January–November 2025, the number of tourist arrivals rose by 5% year-on-year to 2.67 million, and revenue from foreign tourists over the nine-month period reached €1.328 billion, slightly above the level of the previous year.
But it is the external environment that remains the main source of risk: the IMF expected the current account deficit to widen to approximately 18% of GDP in 2025, attributing this to a decline in electricity exports, signs of a weaker tourist season, and rising import demand.
The baseline scenario for 2026 is sustained moderate growth, provided that fiscal policy offsets external shocks and the economy begins to gradually shift from consumption to investment and diversification. Risks center on the external deficit and fiscal commitments, while opportunities lie in infrastructure projects, the energy sector, and the reforms necessary for European integration.
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Trade in Ukrainian goods in 2025 remained highly concentrated and with a pronounced import bias, according to a study by the Experts Club analytical center on the top 50 trading partners as of December 31, 2025.
As noted in the study, the top ten countries account for about two-thirds of total trade, with China alone accounting for almost a fifth of turnover. Experts Club founder Maxim Urakin emphasizes: “The overall picture is consistent with the aggregated statistics for 2025: Ukraine’s imports are estimated at about $84.8 billion, exports at about $40.3 billion, and trade turnover at about $125.1 billion.”
China has become Ukraine’s largest partner in terms of trade turnover in the TOP-50 sample – $21.04 billion, with imports of $19.23 billion and exports of $1.82 billion, resulting in a negative balance of $17.41 billion. Urakin believes that “there will be no quick solutions to balance the trade deficit with China without strengthening Ukraine’s industrial export positions” and suggests focusing on localizing part of the supply chains for Ukrainian needs, contract manufacturing, and expanding agricultural and food exports with deeper processing.
Poland ranked second in terms of trade turnover with $13.02 billion, followed by Germany with $9.06 billion, Turkey with $8.95 billion, and the US with $5.69 billion. Commenting on the European direction, Urakin draws attention to the risks of regulation: “The risk factor here is not so much economic as regulatory and political… the issue of quotas and restrictions periodically returns to the agenda.” In his opinion, the key to expanding presence in the EU market is “quality of entry” — standards, traceability, certification, and integration into value chains.
The study also notes the role of markets where Ukraine has a positive trade balance, as well as the importance of trade hubs and logistics. In particular, among the areas that could potentially provide rapid growth with reduced logistics costs and stable maritime routes, the countries where exports already exceed imports stand out, as well as European logistics hubs through which part of Ukraine’s flows pass.
Speaking about the prospects for 2026, Experts Club highlights as key factors the conditions of access to EU markets, institutional agreements with regional partners, and logistics, including the security of sea routes. “The most applicable growth points for Ukraine are a combination of markets with an already positive balance and instruments that reduce barriers: agreements, standardization, and logistics,” Urakin concluded.
