The lowest corn harvest since 2007-2008 is expected in the countries of the European Union, which is caused by an abnormal drought that has gripped the main corn-producing countries in the past few weeks.
Against this background, the EU imports 13 million tons of corn from Ukraine to cover its needs, according to the website of the electronic grain exchange GrainTrade with reference to the report of the chief analyst of Argus Media (France) Nathan Cordier, which he announced during the meeting of grain traders “Trend and Hedge Club”.
According to him, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary are the largest corn producers in the EU, and production performance in these countries will be disappointing in 2022.
“We expect Romania to harvest 8 million tons of corn, Hungary 4.5 million tons, and Bulgaria 15 million tons. These countries exported corn to Spain, Italy and Turkey, which were the main markets. low harvest in Brazil, exported grain to the Middle East and North Africa. This season, we expect that the supply of exports will be low,” GrainTrade quoted Cordier’s report as saying.
The expert noted that three heat waves have occurred in France since the beginning of corn sowing, so its harvest is expected at 11.2 million tons, and will be harvested from only 68% of the area. Thus, the yield of corn in France will be only 8 tons / ha, which is the worst result of the country in the last 20 years.
According to Cordier’s forecasts, Europe will be forced to import 23 million tons of corn to cover its needs, of which it will import 13 million tons from Ukraine, and another 5 million tons from Brazil.
As reported, the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solsky in early August announced an increase in the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine this season by approximately 5-7 million tons – up to 65-67 million tons from 60 million tons.
At the same time, in the July report, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts the harvest of Ukrainian wheat in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) at the level of 19.5 million tons, its export – 10 million tons, domestic consumption within the country – 10.2 million tons. The corn harvest is estimated at 25 million tons, export – 9 million tons, domestic consumption – 10.7 million tons.
In early July, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the May forecast – up to 69.4 million tons from 66.5 million tons.
According to her forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 20.8 million tons (+ 8.3% compared to the organization’s May forecast); 27.3 million tons of corn (+4.6%); 6.6 million tons of barley (forecast kept); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (+4.7%); 1.5 million tons of rapeseed (+13.3%).
Approximately 60% of the EU and Britain this year are experiencing the effects of drought, which is exacerbated by abnormal heat, the Axios portal reported on Wednesday, citing the European Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service.
“The drought, coupled with high temperatures, is leading to an increase in the risk of fires due to lack of rain and to the appearance of dead wood,” the service said in a statement.
At the same time, EU countries such as France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands are facing water shortages. Such conditions have a negative impact on agriculture, energy and river navigation.
The UK’s main weather service said the south and east of England experienced their hottest July on record. Meteorologists expect the dry weather to last until October.
Employees of the Atmospheric Monitoring Service earlier, after analyzing data for the end of July, found that by the middle of the month up to 45% of the EU was in the drought zone, and 15% had a serious water shortage.
Also in July, service specialists predicted that dry weather conditions in the region would continue in August and September.
As of July 20, 2022, the number of refugees from Ukraine registered for temporary protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe was 3,709.33 thousand, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported on your site.
In the three weeks since June 29, the growth amounted to about 135 thousand, while in the previous two weeks – 170 thousand, and since the end of May – about 775 thousand.
Poland (about 40 thousand), Czech Republic (about 13.5 thousand), Great Britain (about 13 thousand) and Italy (about 11 thousand) showed the largest increase.
According to UNHCR data collected from national governments, the largest number of refugees with temporary protection status in Poland is 1 million 234.7 thousand, while 4.968 million people arrived in the country from Ukraine, according to the Polish border service, from the beginning of the war to , and in the opposite direction departed to Ukraine 3.045 million.
Following are Germany and the Czech Republic, where the number of refugees registered for temporary protection from Ukraine amounted to 670 thousand respectively (the data does not change from June 21) and 396.18 thousand.
The UN, referring to government data, indicates that in total in Germany, where Ukrainians are allowed to stay without registration until the end of August, 893 thousand refugees from Ukraine were recorded. Based on the data presented, a significant proportion of them have not yet applied for temporary protection status in that country.
In the Czech Republic, the situation, according to UN information, is different: almost all arrivals applied for protection status – 396.18 thousand out of 396.33 thousand.
In the vast majority of other countries, the picture is similar to the Czech Republic: the statistics of registered refugees is completely or almost equal to the statistics of those who applied for protection status, which is probably due to the peculiarity of their registration and the completion of the 90-day period of stay under the visa-free regime. An exception, similar to Germany, is only Romania – 45.53 thousand with the status of 84.53 thousand refugees recorded in the country and Estonia – 30.29 thousand out of 46.73 thousand.
Italy is still in fourth place in terms of the number of registered refugees from Ukraine – 143.13 thousand, and Spain closes the top five, in which the number of registered refugees increased by 5 thousand in three weeks, to 128.89 thousand.
Bulgaria follows with an indicator of 123.36 thousand, the only one in which the number of registered with the status of temporary protection is much higher than the number of registered refugees from Ukraine – 86.58 thousand.
More than 50 thousand refugees from Ukraine with the status of temporary protection are also in the UK – 99.7 thousand, France (data as of July 4) – 92.16 thousand (an increase of 4.2 thousand), Slovakia – 85.77 thousand (growth by more than 6 thousand).
Among these countries are also Austria – 76.21 thousand, the Netherlands (data as of July 5) – 68.05 thousand, Lithuania – 59.47 thousand, Switzerland – 57.02 thousand and Belgium – 51.12 thousand.
Following are Portugal – 47.75 thousand, Ireland – 44.58 thousand (an increase of 4.2 thousand), Belgium – 48.38 thousand, Sweden – 40.45 thousand, Latvia – 35.80 thousand. , Finland – 32.67 thousand, Denmark – 29.83 thousand and Hungary – 26.93 thousand, as well as the above-mentioned Romania and Estonia.
From 10 to 25 thousand refugees from Ukraine with the status of temporary protection in Norway – 21.06 thousand, Greece – 16.80 thousand, Croatia – 16.09 thousand and Cyprus – 14.37 thousand.
The UN also indicated the countries in which refugees from Ukraine were recorded, but there is no data on their status: Turkey (data as of May 19) – 145 thousand, Moldova – 86.24 thousand, Georgia – 23.11 thousand, Azerbaijan – 4.80 thousand, Albania – 2.50 thousand, North Macedonia – 1.64 thousand, Armenia – 0.49 thousand and Bosnia and Herzegovina – 0.30 thousand. Separately, it is worth specifying Russia and Belarus, the Ukrainian border with which, respectively, 1 million 745.80 thousand and 16.68 thousand people crossed. The UN information indicates that in the Russian Federation all those who crossed the border were recorded, while in Belarus – 10.35 thousand. There is no data on obtaining the status by them, as well as data on crossing the border of Ukraine in the opposite direction.
In total, according to the UN as of July 19, 9.567 million people left Ukraine since the beginning of the war, while 3.793 million returned (without data from Hungary, the Russian Federation and Belarus). According to this information, the total number of refugees since the beginning of the war can be estimated at about 5 4-5.5 million people, including about 1.75 million people to Russia.
“Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, almost a third of Ukrainians have been forced to flee their homes. This is the largest displacement crisis in the world to date. In Ukraine, more than 6.3 million people remain displaced by the war,” UNHCR points out, although an estimate three weeks ago internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ukraine was higher – 7.1 million.
In recent days, Europe has been covered by a wave of abnormal heat, which has led to forest fires in many southern countries, Western media reported on Wednesday.
The Portuguese authorities said that several fires led to the evacuation of about 700 people, about 120 needed medical attention, one local resident and one firefighter were seriously injured. 1,300 firefighters and several water-dropping aircraft were sent to fight the elements in the central region of the country, while about 1,000 firefighters are working in other regions.
In the southwest of France, a forest fire has engulfed an area of more than 1.2 thousand hectares near the commune of La Teste-de-Bouche, which is located south of Bordeaux. On Wednesday morning, about 6,000 people were evacuated from the area. Also, about 500 people were evacuated from the outskirts of the city of Landira. More than 800 firefighters are fighting fires in France.
The flames continue to be fought in Italy, which this summer faced the worst drought in 70 years. Firefighters are fighting a fire near Bolzano on Tuesday afternoon and a fire in Tuscany on Wednesday morning. Two helicopters and six teams of firefighters were sent to fight the second.
In Spain, abnormal heat is recorded in all regions, in some the temperature reached 44 degrees Celsius. In the west of the country, a forest fire destroyed 3.5 thousand hectares of land, more than 450 people were evacuated.
A forest fire was also recorded in southwestern Turkey near the resort of Datca on the Aegean Sea. At least nine water-dropping helicopters and five planes were dispatched to fight the fire.
In 2021, many European countries were also seriously affected by forest fires, which were the result of abnormal heat. Then a difficult situation with natural fires was observed in Greece, Italy, Turkey, Montenegro, Algeria and North Macedonia.
The European Parliament on Tuesday voted to liberalize Moldova’s agricultural exports to the European Union, MEP Siegfried Muresan, who co-chairs the committee for cooperation with Moldova, said.
Under the EP resolution, export quotas will be doubled for a year for seven goods to which tariff quotas still apply. They include tomatoes, garlic, table grapes, apples, cherries, plums, and grape juice. Moldova used to export plums and grapes in large quantities to Ukraine, Belarus and Russia.
The decision was made because the situation in Ukraine “has strongly affected Moldovan farmers, who are no longer able to export their goods to the East,” Muresan said.
The EU is already Moldova’s biggest trading partner, accounting for almost two-thirds of total exports, he said.
The average price of access to the interstate cross-section for the export of 100 MW of electricity to Romania as of June 30 at UAH 4,200/MWh became a record, and the auction itself for its redemption, held for the first time after the opening of exports by Europe, proves the ability of Ukraine to earn billions of hryvnias on this, Board Chairman of NPC Ukrenergo Volodymyr Kudrytsky said.
“This is the first auction for access to the interstate cross-section after the synchronization of the Ukrainian and European energy systems, and record UAH 4,200 per MWh of access. In just one day, the state-owned company Ukrenergo earned UAH 10 million,” Kudrytsky wrote on his Facebook on the night of Tuesday to Wednesday.
He suggested that if the export capacity was increased to 1,000 MW and auctions were held to buy access to interstate cross-sections at the same level, the state could earn up to UAH 100 million per day, or UAH 36 billion per year. Accordingly, 2,000 MW can bring the state about UAH 72 billion a year, the head of Ukrenergo said.
“This is the price of European rules and the transparency and competitiveness of the auction procedure, as opposed to the traditional desire to ‘steer,’ which can multiply UAH 72 billion by zero. And that is why Ukrenergo will always actively profess and defend these principles – a deviation from them will cost the state very dearly,” he stressed.
As reported, on June 30, the commercial export of the first 100 MW of electricity to Europe will start after the synchronization of the Ukrainian and European energy systems, agreed by ENTSO-E on June 27. At first, the resource will be supplied to Romania, then the directions to Slovakia and Hungary will be opened, but in general, the capacity for export is still 100 MW. In a month, Ukrenergo expects an increase in exports.
