According to Experts.news, global fossil fuel consumption increased by 8%, or 40 exajoules (EJ), between 2017 and 2025, despite improvements in energy efficiency across economies and the rapid growth in the use of renewable energy sources (RES), according to the findings of the Energy Institute’s Country Transition Tracker 2026, released by the UK-based Energy Institute on November 10.
According to the report, global demand for natural gas saw the largest increase during this period—by nearly 15%, or 19 ExJ. Coal consumption rose by 7%, and oil consumption by 5%.
The study covers approximately 80 of the largest energy-consuming countries, which account for over 96% of global energy consumption and 95% of greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the Energy Institute, 83% of the countries studied have seen a decline in the energy intensity of their economies since 2017—that is, the amount of energy required to generate a unit of GDP. At the same time, 86% of countries reduced the carbon intensity of their energy consumption.
Despite these changes, global demand for fossil fuels continued to grow. In 2025, oil, natural gas, and coal still accounted for more than 85% of global energy consumption.
Renewable energy consumption increased by more than 60%
According to estimates by the Energy Institute, global use of renewable energy sources, including hydropower, increased by more than 60% between 2017 and 2025.
Growth was recorded in 74 of the 79 leading countries included in the analysis.
However, despite the rapid expansion of solar, wind, hydropower, and other renewable sources, their share in 2025 accounted for only about 8.6% of total global energy demand.
At the same time, decarbonization is occurring much faster in electricity generation than in other energy sectors.
In particular, France has the highest share of electricity from low-carbon and carbon-free sources among the countries studied—95 percent—of which nuclear power plants account for 68 percent of total generation. Brazil ranks second in this regard, with a share of 89 percent.
Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise
The increase in fossil fuel consumption was accompanied by a further rise in global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Between 2017 and 2025, these emissions increased by an average of nearly 1% annually.
The largest reductions in emissions in absolute terms during this period were recorded in Germany—by 222 million metric tons—and Japan—by 216 million metric tons.
In contrast, energy-related emissions increased by 2.096 billion metric tons in China and by 783 million metric tons in India.
The Energy Institute notes that the United Kingdom, Spain, France, and Germany rank among the top five countries across five or six energy transition indicators.
Jemma Reniés, Director of External Relations at the Energy Institute, emphasized that the energy transition is proceeding unevenly both among individual countries and across sectors of the global economy.
According to her, the success of the transition will be determined not only by the volume of new clean energy capacity brought online but also by the ability of countries to meet growing energy demand while simultaneously reducing emissions.
According to the Statistical Review of World Energy published on June 30, 2026, total global energy demand in 2025 exceeded 600 EJ for the first time, increasing by 1.7% compared to the previous year.
At the same time, renewable energy sources made the largest contribution to the growth in global energy consumption, although fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy mix.
The Energy Institute is an independent British professional organization in the energy sector that publishes international energy statistics, analytical studies, and assessments of energy market developments. The annual publication *Statistical Review of World Energy* contains data on the production and consumption of oil, gas, coal, electricity, renewable energy, and nuclear energy, as well as energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.
Source: Energy Institute, official report “Country Transition Tracker 2026” dated November 10, 2026.
COAL, DECARBONIZATION, ENERGY, GAS, OIL
Moldova’s Minister of Energy, Dorin Junghiu, stated that the country may purchase some gas from Ukraine, and negotiations are already underway.
“Moldova may purchase between 10 million and 50 million cubic meters of natural gas from Ukraine. The final volume will depend on the availability of surplus reserves and the commercial terms of the deal. Potential purchase volumes will be influenced by both existing contracts and the availability of gas for delivery to Moldova,” the minister said during a broadcast on Radio Moldova on Tuesday.
According to him, this issue was discussed last week during a government delegation’s visit to Kyiv, after which Moldova conducted a test purchase of gas, importing 2 million cubic meters.
Jungietu declined to specify a possible gas price or the formula for calculating it, so as not to influence the course of negotiations: “These are commercial negotiations, and we cannot disclose the pricing formula at this time. The purchase must be commercially advantageous for Moldova. Negotiations are ongoing; we want to secure a price below market value. That is the current situation.”
So far, the authorities have not announced the signing of a contract, the final price of the gas, or the timing of potential deliveries.
According to the Minister of Energy, in the future, Moldova will be able to cover approximately one-quarter of its daily natural gas consumption through supplies from the Romanian Neptun Deep field in the Black Sea once production begins, which is expected in late 2027.
“The gas will be purchased under a contract signed last year between Energocom and the Romanian company OMV Petrom. The volumes were made public last year. We’re talking about roughly a quarter of our daily gas consumption. The pricing formula is also based on exchange indicators but includes a discount. Of course, we cannot disclose the size of the discount, since this is not so much a matter of confidentiality as it is a matter of revealing Energocom’s procurement strategy, which is undesirable,” stated Dorin Jungietu.
According to him, another advantage of supplies from “Neptun Deep” is lower transportation costs, which could help lower rates for end consumers.
On May 7, 2025, the state-owned company Energocom signed a three-year contract with OMV Petrom to purchase natural gas from Neptun Deep.
On October 15, 2026, the Ukrainian Energy Exchange (UEEX) held its first exchange auction for the sale of domestically produced natural gas for export, the exchange reported on its website.
“Ukrainian gas producers offered four lots totaling 135,706 MWh of natural gas, with delivery dates (gas days) ranging from October 26 to December 31, 2026,” the statement said.
As a result of the auction, 100% of the offered volume of natural gas was sold at a weighted average price of 69.01 EUR/MWh, excluding VAT.
Under the established mechanism, from March 1 to November 30, gas producers may sell up to 15% of the natural gas volume they delivered at entry points to Ukraine’s gas transmission system during the previous month for export purposes on a monthly basis.
Only non-resident companies may act as buyers at these specialized trading sessions.
As previously reported, in order to preserve domestic gas production and prevent its decline due to excess reserves, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine adopted a decision on the temporary, controlled export of Ukrainian gas during the period from March 1 to November 30.
Under the decision, private gas production companies were granted the right to export up to 15% of their own monthly production. Proceeds from exports will be used to protect gas production enterprises from Russian attacks and to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
As explained by the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, given the current gas balance projections for 2026–2027, the implementation of this decision will not affect the ability to meet domestic market demand during the fall and winter months.
Currently, Ukraine’s underground storage facilities hold nearly 15.8 billion cubic meters of gas, which is 2.6 billion cubic meters above the minimum level and 1.2 billion cubic meters above the target forecast for natural gas.
Exports will take place from March 1 to November 30 of each calendar year. Natural gas exports will not take place from December 1 through February 28.
The decision also provides for mechanisms to promptly suspend exports in the event of a threat of a natural gas shortage or a crisis situation in the domestic market.
In 2026, Gas Distribution Networks of Ukraine LLC connected 140 distributed generation facilities, with plans to connect another 86 by the end of the year, according to Lyudmila Kinder, the company’s chairwoman.
“Distributed gas generation is currently one of the areas where demand for grid connection is growing particularly rapidly. This year, 140 such facilities have already been completed, and another 86 are scheduled for completion. Each project involves an assessment of the grid’s capacity, design, construction, connection, and gas commissioning,” she wrote on Facebook on Tuesday.
Kinder also noted that connecting businesses to the grid should be a “straightforward process,” which is what “Gazmereti” is currently working on.
“If a company has several facilities in different regions, it should not have to coordinate separately with each branch every time. We need to see the entire project portfolio and agree in advance on technical requirements, the workflow, and the order of implementation,” Kinder said, outlining her vision for building effective cooperation with businesses.
As previously reported, according to First Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine already has 1.8 GW of distributed gas-fired generation in operation.
More than 2 million consumers are already receiving new offers from suppliers for the 2026–2027 heating season. The stated price of gas is about 34 bani per kWh—approximately 20% higher than in the previous season.
The heating season will run from November 1, 2026, to March 31, 2027. At the same time, the final amount on bills will depend not only on the established tariff cap but also on the actual cost of gas purchased by suppliers for storage and additional deliveries during the winter.
Gas prices on the European market currently remain high. As a result, energy experts are warning of the risk of a significant increase in heating costs, especially for large buildings and high-consumption businesses.
Rising gas prices may also affect the prices of goods and services, as businesses factor higher heating and energy costs into their budgets.
According to the Serbian business media outlet Parametar, the Bulgarian state-owned company Bulgargaz has received a 10-year license for wholesale natural gas supplies in Serbia, opening the door for yet another major regional player to compete for Serbian consumers.
As Parametar analyzed, the significance of this decision lies not merely in the emergence of yet another licensed company. Bulgargaz has its own procurement portfolio and access to gas infrastructure in several Central and Southeastern European countries.
The company already holds the necessary licenses and permits to trade and supply gas in Greece, Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia, and operates in Moldova through its subsidiary, Bulgargaz North.
Of particular importance to Serbia is the interconnector with Bulgaria, with a capacity of approximately 1.8 billion cubic meters per year. Via Bulgaria, the Serbian market can receive Azerbaijani gas, as well as LNG arriving in the region through Greek terminals.
Bulgargaz will potentially be able to offer large Serbian enterprises a comprehensive supply package—from LNG procurement and regasification to transportation through Bulgaria and delivery of gas to Serbia.
For now, however, the discussion is limited to obtaining a license. Bulgargaz has not yet announced any major contracts with Serbian consumers. Therefore, the key indicator of a genuine market entry will be the booking of cross-border capacity and the signing of the first contracts.
The Serbian gas market is formally open to competition, but in reality remains highly concentrated. According to the latest complete AERS data for 2024, the state-owned company Srbijagas accounted for about 78% of gas sales to end consumers, Novi Sad-Gas for about 3.9%, Yugorosgaz for 3.2%, and each of the remaining suppliers accounted for less than 2%.
At the same time, the market infrastructure is changing. There are three gas transmission system operators in Serbia: Transportgas Srbija, Gastrans, and Yugorosgaz-Transport. In 2026, Transportgas received an operating license, and Serbia joined the regional platform for booking gas transmission capacity, which should facilitate new suppliers’ access to cross-border routes.
The arrival of Bulgargaz does not in itself mean lower prices or a significant redistribution of the market. However, if the Bulgarian company begins to actually supply gas to Serbian industrial enterprises, the Serbia-Bulgaria interconnector will gradually transform from infrastructure for diversifying supplies into a tool for real competition among suppliers.
