According to political scientist Daniil Bogatyriov, in recent weeks, international relations are characterized by an escalation in confrontation between various centers of power.
According to the expert in international affairs, the beginning of not one, but two cold wars is characteristic of the current geopolitical situation in the world: between Russia and the United States in Eastern Europe and between China and the United States in Southeast Asia.
“For example, a recent meeting of the representatives of the U.S. Department State and the Chinese Foreign Ministry in Alaska only exacerbated contradictions between the countries. At the end of the meeting, unambiguous confrontational statements were made. The American side expressed to the Chinese one claims about the violation of human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the increasing pressure in Taiwan. The Chinese, in turn, pointed to the facts of human rights violations in the United States during the suppression of the BLM protest movement,” Bogatyriov said.
According to the political scientist, a similar level of confrontation has also been achieved between the United States and the Russian Federation.
“Today we see attempts to eliminate internal opposition in Russia and Belarus. Thus, the Russian authorities have launched a process to recognize the structure of Alexei Navalny (the Anti-Corruption Foundation) an extremist organization. It is no coincidence that the so-called conspiracy of the opposition intelligentsia has been uncovered in Belarus just now,” the expert said.
He noted that all these processes in the future may lead to the formation of the phenomenon of “large spaces” in various regions of the world, which will in fact be zones of direct influence of one or another large state.
“We are entering the world of “large spaces,” the world of zones of influence, where a cold war will flare up between them and in the future serious restrictions on the movement of citizens and any other cross-border activities are not ruled out. Such things will be possible only within the framework of their large space, that is, this will lead to the lowering of the very real “iron curtain,” as it was in the last cold war,” Bogatyriov summed up.
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Kyiv is standing in front of building a complicated, but necessary dialogue with Warsaw, which has reached a dead end in recent years. It is fair to say that both sides derailed the relations between Ukraine and Poland, however, this does not mean that Kyiv should wait for a full or partial reboot of the government in the neighboring country, moreover, this may not happen, according to political expert Valentyn Haidai.
“We should not forget that in both cases with Poland and with Russia one should differ between sociopolitical and economic dialogues. It is no secret that under conditions of political confrontation between the Ukrainian and Russian elites trade and economic cooperation between the two countries is growing. We can see the same situation in case with Poland,” Haidai said in a program on the Expert Club YouTube channel.
In the expert’s opinion, there is no especial confrontation between the political elites of both countries. Poland and Ukraine do not have any territorial disputes, despite the desire to revise the borders by certain marginal circles, or a sharp conflict related to humanitarian policy, as in the case of Hungary.
“Speaking about economic cooperation, it should be noted that it was estimated at more than EUR 7 billion at the beginning of this year, which is EUR 2 billion more than in 2015, and it continues growing even during the coronavirus pandemic. Ukrainian export to Poland has increased, just the same as Polish import to Ukraine did. An increase in trade, in particular, was registered in the following segments: mineral fertilizers, textile, mechanical and electric equipment, animal fat and metal goods. In addition, Ukraine is one of the largest recipients of Polish food. According to Statistics Poland, export of agricultural goods to Ukraine has grown by more than 20%,” the political expert said.
As of the end of 2019, more than 400 joint enterprises operated in Ukraine and Poland in machine building, consumer goods and food industry, agriculture, etc. Cultural and scientific cooperation continues. Poland, which has a range of grant and scholarship programs, including the Eastern Studies, Stipend for Young Researchers and Krzysztof Skubiszewski Scholarship programs, is traditionally preferred by Ukrainian school graduates, postgraduate students and scientists.
“The problem is that if liberal Trzaskowski won, it is highly probable that Warsaw would take a step forward towards the normalization of relations with Kyiv on its own, while after the victory of conservative Duda in the presidential election the search for compromises was put off,” Haidai said.
The full interview is available on the Expert Club YouTube channel