In its June report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year (July–June) to 23.5 million tons from 23 million tons, as projected a month earlier, and also increased its export estimate from 13 million tons to 14 million tons.
In the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA analysts attributed the forecast revision for Ukraine to favorable weather conditions in the spring.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the upward revision of the forecast for Ukraine was one of the factors behind the increase in the forecast for global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year from 819.1 million tons to 820.1 million tons. Global wheat trade was also revised upward—from 211.7 million tons to 212.0 million tons.
In addition, the USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine’s barley harvest in the 2026/27 marketing year by 300,000 tons—from 5.5 million tons to 5.8 million tons, as expected a month earlier.
The export estimate was also increased by the same 300,000 tons, which, together with other grains excluding wheat and corn, currently stands at 2.49 million tons.
As for the corn harvest forecast, analysts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture left it unchanged at 30 million tons this year, compared to 30.9 million tons last year. Corn exports from Ukraine are expected to reach 23 million tons, the same as a month earlier.
As reported, in its May report, the USDA published its first forecast for Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year, estimating the wheat harvest at 23 million tons, exports at 13 million tons, and corn production and exports at 30 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively.
As reported, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture forecasts the 2026 grain harvest at around 60.4 million tons, which is only 1%, or 0.64 million tons, less than last year. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, the harvest of key crops could amount to about 22.4 million tons of wheat, about 4.7 million tons of barley, and approximately 31.6 million tons of corn.
According to data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2025 increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million tons, the corn harvest by 14.6% to 30.9 million tons, while barley production decreased by 2.4% to 5.2 million tons.
