The National Bank of Ukraine has maintained its forecast for the fruit and berry harvest in 2026 at 1.77 million tonnes, corresponding to the previous year’s figure. This is stated in a study by the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Unlike potatoes and vegetables, for which production forecasts were significantly downgraded, the estimate for this year’s fruit and berry harvest remained unchanged.
At the same time, compared with the pre-war period, Ukrainian horticulture continues to demonstrate lower production volumes.
In particular, 2.24 million tonnes of fruit and berry crops were harvested in 2021, compared with 2.02 million tonnes in 2024 and 1.77 million tonnes in 2025.
Thus, the projected harvest for 2026 will remain approximately 21% below the 2021 level and 12.4% lower than the 2024 figure.
The National Bank has also slightly lowered its forecast for fruit and berry production in 2027, from 1.90 million to 1.87 million tonnes.
The revision amounts to 30,000 tonnes, or approximately 1.6%.
At the same time, compared with the expected result for 2026, the NBU forecasts an increase in fruit and berry production of 100,000 tonnes, or approximately 5.6%.
Thus, the regulator expects a moderate recovery in production in this segment of the agricultural sector next year.
The restoration of perennial plantations, modernization of cold storage facilities, and expansion of fruit and berry processing remain important for the further development of horticulture.
Unlike most annual agricultural crops, the establishment of commercial orchards and berry plantations requires significant initial investments and a long payback period.
Therefore, the industry’s development prospects will largely depend on the availability of financing, investments in cultivation technologies, and opportunities to sell products in domestic and foreign markets.
BERRIES, EXPERTS CLUB, HARVEST, HORTICULTURE, PRODUCTION, UKRAINE
