In January-August this year, Ukrainian companies reduced imports of nickel and products by 75.3% compared to the same period in 2022 to $11.038 million ($2.599 million in August), while aluminum and aluminum products increased by 17.8% to $243.990 million ($38.614 million).
Civilian casualties from February 24, 2022, after Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine, to September 10, 2023, totaled 27,149 (26,717 as of August 27), including 9,614 deaths (9,511), the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (UN OHCHR) reported.
“The UN OHCHR considers that the actual number of civilian deaths or injuries is significantly higher, as many reports from locations where such incidents have occurred continue to require further confirmation, while information from some locations where fighting continues has been delayed,” the document said regarding the UN data.
This applies, for example, to such localities as Mariupol (Donetsk region), Lisichansk, Popasnaya and Severodonetsk (Luhansk region), where numerous civilian deaths or injuries have been reported.
According to confirmed UN figures, 4,461 men, 2,672 women, 289 boys and 236 girls were killed, while the gender of 29 children and 1,927 adults could not yet be ascertained.
Among the 17,535 injured, 516 boys and 378 girls were killed, while 286 children whose gender could not yet be determined.
Compared to August 27, five children have died and 14 others have been injured.
While the UN OHCHR casualty count summary was previously issued daily, and then only on weekdays, it became weekly from July 2022 and biweekly from the end of May 2023. This summary, like the previous one, provides data by month.
According to them, the UN recorded the deaths of 55 civilians in 10 days in September. In August, the number of new deaths reported dropped to 147 from 161 in July, 186 in June, 174 in May, 182 in April, 181 in March and 144 in February.
The deadliest month for civilians, the UN points out, remains March last year, with a minimum of 4,168 deaths. In April 2022, according to an OHCHR publication, the number of civilian deaths due to war fell to 823 in April, 550 in May, 429 in June and 386 in July. There were 375 deaths in the first five days of the war from February 24 to February 28, 340 in August last year, 408 in September, 310 in October, 188 in November, 206 in December and 201 in January this year.
The number of wounded in the 10 days of September was 237, compared with 565 in August, 688 in July, 679 in June, 685 in May, 492 in April, 592 in March, 457 in February, 538 in January this year, 617 in December and 541 in November last year. In October, the number of injuries dropped to 795 from 983 in September, when it was up from August’s 921. Prior to that the monthly number of wounded exceeded a thousand: July, 1,131; June, 1,109; May, 1,139; April, 1,896; March, 3,001. In the first five days of the war last February, 469 people were wounded.
The UN OHCHR specifies that since the beginning of September, explosive weapons have killed 54 people and injured 170 others, while mines and explosive remnants of war have killed one person and injured 16 (6%).
Government-controlled territories accounted for 79% of casualties in the first 10 days of September, according to the UN.
The summary traditionally states that the increase in figures to the previous summary should not be attributed solely to cases after August 27, as during this period the Office verified a number of cases from the previous days.
Source: https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2023/09/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-11-september-2023
Wall Street experts expect earnings of S&P 500 companies to increase in the current quarter after three quarters of annual decline, The Wall Street Journal writes.
This could create a more stable basis for the recovery of the US stock market, which has stalled recently. The S&P 500 is up nearly 17% year to date, but the index has ended in the red for four of the last six weeks.
The consensus among experts surveyed by FactSet is for S&P 500 earnings to rise 0.5% this quarter and 1.2% for the full year.
Analysts raised their forecasts for the current quarter in the first two months, something that hasn’t happened since the third quarter of 2021, said John Butters, chief earnings analyst at FactSet.
Earnings forecasts are at or near record levels across most segments of the S&P 500, including the IT, communications services and consumer goods companies.
The sub-indices of these segments in the S&P 500 are leading the gainers this year. Thus, the indicator of shares of IT companies has increased since the beginning of the year by 41%, communication services – 43%, manufacturers of consumer goods – 32%.
In recent days, analysts have raised earnings per share forecasts for industrial companies and utility providers to record highs, the WSJ notes. The industrials subindex of the S&P 500 is up 7.1% this year, while utilities are down 11%.
David Lefkowitz, head of US equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, expects the S&P 500 to be around 4,500 at the end of December this year and reach 4,700 by the end of June next year.
As of 17:00 Moscow time on Monday, the index value is 4476.37 points.
Lefkowitz expects the resumption of student loan payments, as well as high energy prices and mortgage rates, to keep the stock market down.
47% of Ukrainians perceive corruption as the biggest obstacle to the development of entrepreneurship in the country, according to a survey conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation in cooperation with the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on July 3-17, 2023.
“According to the survey conducted in July 2023, corruption is perceived by citizens as the biggest obstacle to the development of entrepreneurship in the country. This was noted by 47% of respondents. For comparison: 37% named the destruction caused by the war as the biggest obstacle, 36% – inadequate tax administration and control system, 36% – weak support from the state,” the report on the results of the study published on Monday on the official website of the Fund says.
As noted, “problems that directly depend on the quality of public administration occupy three of the top four positions that, according to Ukrainians, hinder the development of entrepreneurship. At the same time, the next most negative impact on entrepreneurship is the outflow of specialists and entrepreneurs abroad (29%) and the outflow of employees abroad (28%).”
Sociologists have recorded that corruption as an obstacle to entrepreneurship was mentioned somewhat more often in the East (55%) and less often in the West (43%) of the country. Similarly, critical attitudes toward tax control are noticeably increasing from the West (30%) to the East (43%). Respondents in the eastern (40%) and southern regions (33%) mentioned the outflow of specialists and entrepreneurs abroad more often than in the western (22%) and central regions (27%), which were less affected by the hostilities. The same situation is with the outflow of workers: it was mentioned more often in the east (37%) and south (31%) than in the west (25%) and center (24%).
“It is significant,” the report says, “that there is a distrust in society of domestic agents of post-war economic and infrastructure recovery. In particular, in July 2023, only 17.5% of respondents agreed with the opinion that state-owned Ukrainian companies and banks could effectively and without corruption carry out the country’s post-war recovery. The level of trust in Ukrainian private companies and banks is even lower – 8%.
Currently, large Western companies and banks (28%) and international financial organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank (19%) have the highest, but also low, levels of trust. Large non-Western companies and banks (China, UAE, Saudi Arabia) have the lowest level of trust – only 3% of respondents.
The survey was conducted face-to-face in all regions of Ukraine, except for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson regions. In Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions, the survey was conducted in the territories controlled by the Government of Ukraine and not subject to hostilities. 2011 respondents aged 18 and older were interviewed.
Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Yevhen Perebyinis has accepted copies of his credentials from the new Ambassador of His Majesty the King of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to Ukraine, Martin Harris.
According to the press service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Perebyinis congratulated the Ambassador on the beginning of his diplomatic mission in Ukraine, expressing hope that his work in our country will contribute to further deepening of Ukrainian-British relations.
“The interlocutors discussed the full range of issues of cooperation between Ukraine and the United Kingdom, exchanged views on concrete steps to deepen cooperation in the context of Ukraine’s course towards NATO membership, as well as the implementation of international initiatives to support Ukraine,” the statement said.
The parties paid special attention to the issue of strengthening sanctions pressure on Russia and the functioning of the Black Sea “grain corridor” to ensure global food security.
The Deputy Minister thanked the UK for supporting Ukraine and strengthening the country’s defense capabilities.
Earlier, the British government announced that Martin Harris will become the British Ambassador to Ukraine, replacing Melinda Simmons, and the rotation will take place in September 2023.
Martin Harris already worked in Kyiv in 2003-2008 and held the position of Deputy Ambassador and Consul General.
Melinda Simmons has been head of the British diplomatic mission in Ukraine since 2019. She will continue to work in the diplomatic service in another position.
The European Commission (EC) has downgraded its forecast for eurozone economic growth in 2023 to 0.8% from the previously expected 1.1%.
In 2024, eurozone GDP is expected to grow by 1.3% rather than 1.6%, the EC said in a review.
The forecast for EU economic growth for this year has been worsened to 0.8% from 1% and for next year to 1.4% from 1.7%.
“The latest statistical data confirm that economic activity in the EU has been subdued in the first half of 2023 due to the severe shocks facing countries in the region. Weakness in domestic demand, especially consumer spending, shows that high prices for most goods and services are putting more pressure on the economy than we believed in our previous forecast,” the survey said.
“The sharp contraction in bank lending suggests that monetary tightening in the euro area is having an impact on the economy,” the EC said. – Various surveys point to a slowdown in economic activity over the summer and the following months. Weakness in the industrial sector persists, and the impetus for growth in the services sector is weakening”.
EC experts emphasize that the situation in the world economy in the first half of the year was slightly better than expected, despite the weak dynamics in China. Nevertheless, the EC forecasts for the world economy and international trade volumes are practically unchanged, which means that European countries cannot count on support from external demand.
The EC expects global GDP to expand by 3.2% both this year and next year.
“The momentum towards slower growth in the EU is likely to continue into 2024, as tight monetary policy will continue to constrain economic activity. At the same time, we expect GDP growth to pick up slightly next year as inflation slows, the European labor market remains strong and household incomes gradually recover,” the EC review said.
The eurozone inflation forecast (HICP index) for this year has been lowered to 5.6% from 5.8%, for next year – raised to 2.9% from 2.8%. In the EU, according to the EC’s updated forecast, inflation will be 6.5% this year (previously 6.7%) and 3.2% next year (previously 3.1%).
The EC expects that energy prices in Europe will continue to decline until the end of 2023, but more slowly than before. At the same time in 2024 they may again slightly increase due to the expected rise in oil prices.
The EC review notes that the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical factors still carry risks for Europe.
In addition, experts warn that the tightening of monetary policy may put more pressure on the economy than expected at the moment. On the other hand, it may lead to a faster easing of inflation and, accordingly, accelerate the recovery of real incomes, the review notes.
According to the EC’s forecast, Germany’s GDP will contract by 0.4% in 2023 and grow by 1.1% next year. Previously expected to increase the first indicator by 0.2%, the second – by 1.4%.
France’s economic growth forecast for 2023 has been raised to 1% from 0.7%, for the next year it has been lowered to 1.2% from 1.4%.
Italy’s economy is expected to grow by 0.9% and 0.8% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, while Spain’s is expected to grow by 2.2% and 1.9%.
Experts Club Research Project and Maxim Urakin recently released an analytical video about the economy of Ukraine and the world.
Subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel by clicking here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
