In January-March 2025, the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine grew by 1.1% compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Monthly Economic Monitoring of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
“The indicators for GDP, industry, construction and a number of other sectors of the economy published by the State Statistics Service allowed the IER experts to refine the estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025. According to our estimates, real GDP grew by 1.2% in January and 0.7% in February,” the IER press service said on Tuesday.
It is noted that better access to electricity in March and a gradual increase in demand were the main reasons for a certain improvement in the economic situation in March. According to the IER, real GDP grew by 1.3% in March.
Value added in agriculture declined by about 3% y-o-y in March, which is in line with the revised estimate for February. The IER explained that this was mainly due to a decline in livestock production in households. As before, the advance of Russian troops led to a decrease in production near the front line.
“According to our estimates, real gross value added (GVA) in industry grew by 2.5% yoy in March, slightly faster than the revised 1.8% in February. Moderate growth in domestic demand and exports supported the increase in production, although Russian attacks continued to have a negative impact on economic activity. For example, in March, attacks on such major cities as Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Kharkiv intensified,” the Institute added.
Production in the mining industry in March, according to the IER, decreased by more than 3% compared to March 2024, primarily due to the temporary occupation of several coal mines in Donetsk region by Russian troops and attacks on gas production. Real GVA in the electricity sector decreased by almost 5%, due to Russian attacks.
The IER emphasized that it also revised its estimate of growth in trade to 0.7% in February (compared to February-2024). The organization hopes that in March, growth will remain close to the same level – 1.2%.
“This will continue to reflect the trend of increasing the share of direct sales in trade, which leads to a decrease in wholesale turnover. According to our estimates, real GVA in transportation in March declined by 6%, which is close to our revised estimate for February. A deeper slowdown in rail freight transportation due to cyberattacks offset slightly faster growth in other transportation segments. The impact of the suspension of gas transit also remained,” the IER emphasized.
As for inflation, the IER estimates its growth at 14.6% yoy in March compared to 13.4% in February. One of the main factors behind this acceleration was a 45% increase in average egg prices compared to the low base of last year, while in February prices were close to last year’s levels (2% higher than in the previous year). However, inflationary pressures were also supported by traditional factors, such as rising labor costs, higher costs of stable energy supplies, last year’s poor harvest, and the approximation of domestic prices for a number of agricultural products to world prices (due to the removal of export barriers that previously kept domestic prices lower).
As reported, the NBU has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth this year to 3.1% from 3.6% in its previous January macroeconomic forecast, next year from 4.0% to 3.7%, and in 2027 from 4.2% to 3.9%.
According to First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko on March 18, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in January-February 2025 is estimated at 1.1%.
Earlier, on February 28, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2025, lowering it by 0.5 percentage points (p.p.) from its previous forecast to 2-3%. Also, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded its forecasts for Ukrainian GDP growth in 2025 from 4.7% to 3.5%, the World Bank from 6.5% to 2%, and the National Bank of Ukraine from 4.1% to 3.6%, but the state budget for 2025 is based on a 2.7% GDP growth forecast.
In addition, ICU Investment Group has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth from 3.4% to 3% in 2025.
In January-March this year, DTEK Energy’s machine builders manufactured and repaired nearly 806 units of mining equipment, including three new shearers for mining operations.
According to the energy holding in a press release on Thursday, the machine builders also provided the mines with more than 527,000 spare parts and components.
“We have completed this heating season and are already preparing a more reliable support for the next winter. To do this, power engineers continue to restore the power plant 24/7, miners provide fuel for thermal generation, and machine builders support them with all the necessary equipment,” said Alexander Fomenko, CEO of DTEK Energy.
According to the report, DTEK Energy’s miners commissioned the first three new coal faces in January-March.
As reported, in 2024, the company’s investments in Ukrainian coal mining amounted to UAH 7.5 billion, and over the past three years (2022-2024) – UAH 18 billion. The funds were allocated for the construction and repair of capital mine workings, completion of coal longwalls, mine tunneling equipment, underground mine transport and production capacity support projects.
“DTEK Energy provides a closed cycle of electricity generation from coal. The company’s installed capacity in thermal generation amounted to 13.3 GW as of January 2022. The company has established a full production cycle in coal mining: coal mining and enrichment, mechanical engineering and maintenance of mine equipment.
On April 21, 2025, Pope Francis died at the age of 88. According to canon law, a conclave to elect a new pontiff must be held within 15-20 days after the onset of the period of sede vacante (vacant throne). Thus, the election of the new Pope will take place between May 6 and 11, 2025, in the Sistine Chapel of the Vatican.
Currently, experts name several main contenders for the papal throne. Among the most likely candidates for the post of Pope are the following cardinals:
Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70 years old) – Vatican Secretary of State, diplomat and one of Pope Francis’ closest associates.
Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69) – Archbishop of Bologna, a representative of the progressive wing, known for his participation in peacekeeping initiatives.
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67) – Former Archbishop of Manila, prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, may become the first pope from Asia.
Peter Erdő (Hungary, 72) – Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, theologian, authority in interreligious dialogue.
Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76) – Emphasizes social justice, one of the leading cardinals in Africa.
Robert Sarah (Guinea, 79) – Conservative cardinal, former head of the Congregation for Divine Worship.
The election of the new pope is held in a closed meeting, the Conclave, which is attended by all cardinals under the age of 80 (in 2025, there are about 120 of them). Each of them is obliged to participate, except in cases of illness or special circumstances.
The procedure includes the following stages:
The conclave takes place in isolation in the Sistine Chapel.
Cardinals vote anonymously. A qualified majority of two-thirds of the votes is required for election.
Voting is held up to four times a day (twice in the morning and evening).
At the end of each round, ballots are burned: black smoke means the pope has not been elected, white smoke means the election has taken place.
The elected cardinal, having made his decision, says: “Accepto” – I accept. Then he chooses the papal name.
The world learns the result through a historical formula: Habemus Papam – “We have a pope!”
In January-March 2025, the international financial service NovaPay (TM NovaPay) increased the number of transfers by 10% compared to the same period in 2024 – up to 106 million, its press service reported.
According to the press service of NovaPay on Tuesday, budget payments during this period increased by 23% to UAH 408 million.
In January-March 2025, transactions worth almost UAH 83 billion were processed through the system, which is 25% more than last year.
“We are developing existing products and introducing new ones, serving customers and increasing business volumes. This allows us to continue to support the country’s economy, fulfilling our obligations to the state and ensuring the stability of the financial system,” the press service quoted NovaPay CEO Andriy Krivoshapko as saying.
According to him, the total investment in the victory amounted to UAH 138.1 million.
NovaPay is an international financial service that is part of the NOVA group of companies (Nova Poshta). It provides online and offline payment services at more than 3,600 Nova Poshta outlets.
As temperatures rise and countries back off their decarbonization efforts, we must confront a reality central banks can’t correct
Inflation is, at base, a tax on consumption – and it hits the poor the hardest, since they consume more of their incomes and the rich consume less.
That’s one reason for concern over Donald Trump’s tariffs, which will disproportionately affect the poor. When the 90-day pause on the tariffs expires, it is reasonable to expect prices to rise, and by a lot.
That’s because, first, intermediate goods – rather than finished ones – dominate trade, crossing borders and being tariffed multiple times along the way, which makes them highly inflationary. Second, while the tariffs of the first Trump administration could be more easily absorbed by exchange rates and producers, there is no way tariffs of this magnitude can be absorbed. Producers and consumers must take a hit, and that means rising prices. It looks like the poor, once again, will suffer the most.
But if Trump’s tariffs were to disappear for good, would we return to a world of stable prices? Insights from our forthcoming book, Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers, suggest that is sadly not the case, for three reasons.
The first is how we think about inflation and how we respond to it. We identified four distinct ways that the public and central banks have talked about the causes and effects of inflation in the past few years. The first story is the textbook idea that “the government spends too much money”. The second focuses on wages pushing up prices – a labor market story. These two stories both see inflation as coming from demand outpacing supply. Consumers demand too much because governments put too much money in their pockets, and workers ask for higher wages despite no significant improvements in productivity. If production can’t keep up with the surge in demand, then the inevitable consequence will be rising prices.
The two other stories we identified see inflation the other way around. It’s the supply side of the economy that generated inflation. There’s the “supply shocks” story, where unexpected events such as Covid or the Ukraine war push up prices and they stay up until the economy adjusts. And finally, there is the story of corporations in concentrated markets using inflation as cover to raise prices.
There is evidence for (and against) all four causal stories. But what policymakers tended to focus on were the first two. As a result, central banks raised interest rates, which can be effective in reducing inflation when it is demand-driven but cannot do much if inflation comes from an exogenous shock, such as Covid or a war.
What is interesting about the 2020s inflation was that the latter two stories – supply shocks and opportunistic corporations – turned out to be just as, if not more, important than the first two.
But is that all there is to future inflation? No, and that brings us to reason number two.
The Trump administration has recently declared a war on climate change research inside the federal government and in the wider US research community, as well as a doubling down on carbon-based business models. But wishing the problem away won’t make it disappear. The real drivers of future inflation are not just tariffs, but the climate crisis and states backing off their decarbonization efforts.
Climate change is already affecting prices. The first driver for this is insurance markets. A combination of massively rising damage costs from droughts, wildfires and floods has seen insurance costs soar in many countries. Some insurers have moved to cut coverage in US states such as California and Florida, with the result that the state there is on the hook for damages it can never cover. Recognizing this, reinsurers – the companies that protect insurance firms – are pulling their coverage from insurance writers, creating a long-term rise in prices. The effects spread well beyond insurance markets. In the US you cannot get a mortgage or build without insurance. Housing is already in critically short supply. Prices can only go up.
The climate crisis is also having long-term effects on what we eat. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the European Central Bank have produced the first systematic assessments of how much climate change will impact inflation through impacts on food supplies. Assuming temperature increases projected through 2035, which are probably understated, food inflation will increase by 0.92 to 3.23% per year, while headline inflation will rise between 0.32 and 1.18% per year. US wildfires and Europe’s recent and persistent droughts and crop failures are really just the thin end of this inflationary wedge.
Finally, there is the question of how everyone else responds to the US breaking the current global order. The UK’s nationalization of a primary steel company, the move to expand Heathrow airport, and more spending on defense all suggest that our attempts to decarbonize our economies are being put on hold in the name of adjusting to these new realities. The US has effectively given up trying to do anything about it and has decided instead to “drill, baby, drill”.
The EU’s Green Deal was already in trouble electorally, and Trump’s decisions have moved the drive for rearmament to the top of the priorities queue. Meanwhile, China’s decarbonization model depends upon everyone else buying its green tech, which itself is built with enormous coal input. Any long-term financial bonus we might get through the lower costs of more installed renewables and lesser climate damage will be much less than anticipated, even a few years ago, as we backpedal on decarbonization.
In short, viewing tariffs as a source of inflation is probably a good idea. But in doing so we should not miss the underlying forces that no amount of central bank tinkering can accommodate – and that we refuse to fully confront.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/22/tariffs-inflation-climate-crisis
Climate crisis, ECONOMICS, INFLATION, OPINION, Trump tariffs
The National Bank reduced the sale of foreign currency on the interbank market last week by $221.77 million, or 41.4% – to $314.4 million, according to the regulator’s statistics on its website.
According to it, the National Bank even bought $10 million on the market last week, the last time it was in early March, while in general, since the beginning of the year, the purchase amounted to $33.5 million against $10.24 billion of sales.
Thus, net foreign exchange interventions of the NBU over the past week fell by 43.2% to $304.4m.
The data, which the regulator has managed to make public during this time, indicate a change in the situation on the cash market of currency: for the first time since the beginning of the year, the sale of currency exceeded the purchase. From $19.7 million on Monday, the net balance of sales decreased to $8.3 million on Tuesday, $1.2 million on Wednesday and $3.0 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia/$1 exchange rate was volatile last week: from 41.3879 UAH/$1 on Monday, it strengthened to 41.1753 UAH/$1 on Wednesday before weakening again to 41.3955 UAH/$1 at the end of the week.
On the cash market, the hryvnia depreciated by 10-14 kopecks over the week as the margin widened: the buying rate went to UAH 40.95/$1, while the selling rate went to UAH 41.10/$1.
As analysts of KYT Group note, in early April the currency market of Ukraine continued to demonstrate relative stability in the dollar segment and noticeable strengthening of the euro: the dollar rate is declining under the influence of external weakness of the U.S. dollar, while the euro rate is growing both due to the global trend and structural demand for the Euro currency in Ukraine.
“In general, the Ukrainian currency market is characterized by growing liquidity, narrowing spreads and decreasing volatility against the dollar, which is evidence of the formation of relative predictability of further exchange rate trajectories,” KYT Group believes.
They noted that in the domestic market, the rates of purchase and sale have come close to the official rate of the NBU: market rates of both purchase and sale of the dollar began to move almost synchronously with the official, without significant deviations and equidistant from the official – +\- 25 kopecks, which reduces market volatility.
“In the short term (2-4 weeks), the dollar exchange rate is likely to move smoothly in the range of 41.10-41.80 UAH/$ with possible adjustments within 20-30 kopecks, associated with situational demand”, – predicted in KYT Group.
In their opinion, the medium-term perspective (2-4 months) provides for the possibility of returning to the range of 41.80-42.50 UAH/$ in case of inflation growth, import activity or pressure on the budget.
