The export potential of Ukrainian wheat in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) may be about 12 million tons, which is 36% lower than in the previous 2021/2022 MY (18.7 million tons) and by 28% less than the year before last 2020/2021 MY (16.6 million tons).
As reported on the APK-Inform agency website on Friday, the decline in wheat exports is due to a 39% decrease in the expected gross grain harvest in Ukraine in 2022/23 MY compared to the previous season – to 52.3 million tons from 86 million tons, as well as the limited capacity of the country’s export infrastructure.
According to him, Egypt and Indonesia have been the key importers of Ukrainian grain products for several seasons: at the end of 2021/2022 MY, their shares in total exports amounted to 16% and 14%, respectively (2.9 million tons and 2.5 million tons in natural expression). It is specified that in 2021/2022 MY, Egypt increased purchases of Ukrainian wheat in relation to the season 2020/2021 MY by 19%, and Indonesia – by 2%.
Turkey became the third largest importer of Ukrainian wheat in the past MY – its imports more than doubled compared to the previous season – from 794 thousand tons to 1.9 million tons, and its share in total exports increased from 5% to 10%.
As reported, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the July report predicts the harvest of Ukrainian wheat in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) at the level of 19.5 million tons, its export – 10 million tons, domestic consumption within the country – 10, 2 million tons. The corn harvest is estimated at 25 million tons, export – 9 million tons, domestic consumption – 10.7 million tons.
Germany will supply Ukraine with 16 Biber bridge-laying tanks, the German Ministry of Defense has reported.
“We continue to support! To further support the ground forces of Ukraine, Minister Lambrecht has decided to deliver a batch of 16 Biber armored bridge layers. They can be used to overcome water or other obstacles in battle,” the ministry said on Twitter on Friday.
For the second time in a year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) worsened its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 – to 3.2% from 3.6% (4.4% growth was expected in January). For 2023, the estimate has been lowered to 2.9% from the 3.6% growth expected in April (in January, the IMF forecast global GDP growth of 3.8%).
Such an assessment is given in the World Economic Outlook Update: Gloomy and more uncertain, published by the IMF on Tuesday.
The IMF lowered the growth forecast for the economies of emerging market and developing countries for 2022 to 3.6% from 3.8%, for 2023 – to 3.9% from 4.4%.
The growth forecast for China’s economy this year has been significantly reduced to 3.3% from 4.4% (in January, an increase of 4.8% was expected), in 2023 to 4.6% from 5.1%.
India’s GDP growth estimate is also downgraded to 7.4% from 8.2% in 2022 and to 6.1% from 6.9% in 2023, respectively.
At the same time, the growth forecast for the Brazilian economy has been raised to 1.7% from 0.8% in 2022 and lowered to 0.9% from 1.4% in 2023.
The forecast for GDP growth in developed countries in 2022 is downgraded by 0.8 percentage points to 2.5% and by 1 p.p. – up to 1.4% – in 2023.
There is also a serious reduction in the forecast for US GDP growth: in 2022 – by 1.4 p.p. to 2.3%, in 2023 – by 1.3 p.p. up to 1%.
The economy of the eurozone countries this year, according to the IMF, will grow by 2.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points. less than the previous forecast. For 2023, the estimate deteriorated more significantly – an increase of 1.2% compared to the previously expected 2.3%.
The forecast for Italian GDP growth in 2022 was raised to 3% from 2.3%, in 2023, on the contrary, it was reduced to 0.7% from 1.7% (was 2.2%). The forecast for Spain for the current year is reduced by 0.8 percentage points. – up to 4% and by 1.3 p.p., up to 2% in 2023
The German economy in 2022 will grow, according to the IMF, only by 1.2%, previously expected to grow by 2.1%, in 2023 growth will slow down to 0.8% compared to the previous forecast of 2.7%.
For France, the assessment has been reduced for the current year by 0.6 percentage points. – up to 2.3% and by 0.4 p.p. for 2023 – up to 1%.
The UK economic growth forecast for 2022 is reduced by 0.5 p.p. – up to 3.2%, for 2023 – by 0.7 p.p. – up to 0.5%. Japan’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2022-2023 (down 0.7 percentage points this year and 0.6 percentage points next).
The fund improved its assessment of the dynamics of the Russian economy in 2022, expecting it to fall by 6%, and not by 8.5%, as predicted in April. At the same time, the forecast for 2023 has worsened: according to the Fund, the decline in the RF GDP will be 3.5% compared to the previous forecast of 2.3%. In January, the Fund predicted the growth of the Russian economy in 2022 by 2.8%, in 2023 – by 2.1%.
The IMF states: the risks for the updated global forecast are overwhelmingly shifted to the downside. A war in Ukraine could lead to a sudden halt in gas imports from Russia to Europe; slowing down inflation may prove more difficult if labor market deficits exceed expectations or inflation expectations cannot be anchored; tightening conditions in the global financial market is fraught with debt crises in developing countries; new outbreaks of COVID-19 and lockdowns, coupled with further escalation of problems in the real estate sector, could further slow China’s growth; geopolitical fragmentation could hinder the development of world trade, the IMF lists risk factors. In an alternative forecast scenario in which these risks materialize, global GDP growth will slow down to 2.6% and 2% in 2022 and 2023. respectively.
The losses inflicted on the agricultural sector of Ukraine as a result of the war amount to $4 billion to $6 billion, representative of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Viktoria Mykhalchuk has said.
“Preliminary estimates from June indicate that the losses inflicted on the agricultural sector as a result of the war are between $4 billion and $6 billion, including damage to infrastructure such as irrigation equipment, storage facilities, shipping and processing infrastructure, greenhouses, field crops, and farm animals,” Mykhalchuk said at a briefing at the Ukraine Media Center in Kyiv on Friday.
She noted that this year, according to FAO estimates, Ukraine expects to harvest up to 51 million tonnes of grain.
“Given the areas that were directly affected by the war, only 61 million tonnes of the total of 75 million storage facilities are physically accessible. Some 14% are damaged or destroyed, and 10% are located on the territory occupied by Russia,” Mykhalchuk said.
According to her, of the available storage facilities, 35% remain filled with 22 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds, which are awaiting export.
“That is, only 65% of the storage facilities are available,” the FAO spokeswoman explained.
Mykhalchuk said that FAO is also working with the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine on alternative ways to export grain from Ukraine.
“One of the alternative ways that we are currently supporting is exporting through Romania and helping the Izmail laboratory to increase its capacity so that certification takes place much faster and, accordingly, the number of exports, possibly through these borders, increases,” she said.
The Verkhovna Rada has improved the procedure for preparing bills on adapting Ukrainian legislation to the provisions of European Union law (EU acquis).
Draft resolution No. 7595 was supported by 297 MPs at the plenary session on Friday, parliamentarian Yaroslav Zhelezniak (the Holos parliamentary faction) said on his Telegram channel.
The resolution provides for the consideration of bills aimed at adapting the legislation of Ukraine to the provisions of the law of the European Union, the fulfillment of Ukraine’s international legal obligations in the field of European integration, the availability of tables of correspondence to them, as well as official translations of relevant acts of EU legislation and / or other sources of EU law.
According to the resolution, subcommittees will be created in the committees of the Verkhovna Rada to adapt the legislation of Ukraine to the provisions of EU law, the implementation of Ukraine’s international legal obligations in the field of European integration.
The resolution also provides for an additional examination of the compliance of European integration bills with Ukraine’s international legal obligations in the field of European integration and EU law in the Parliamentary Committee on European Integration and / or in the Cabinet of Ministers.
adapt, BILLS, EU stantards, LEGISLATION, UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT
The first ships with Ukrainian grain are being loaded in the ports of the Odessa region, which have been blocked in Ukrainian waters since the beginning of the war, said Deputy Head of the President’s Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko.
“There are 17 ships in the ports with almost 600,000 tons of cargo. Of these, 16 ships with Ukrainian grain with a total tonnage of about 580,000 tons, which will soon leave for ports of destination,” he wrote on his Telegram channel on Friday.
Tymoshenko also stressed that as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation on the territory of the Odessa region, 416 buildings and structures were destroyed or partially damaged.
As reported, on July 29, the ambassadors of the G7 countries in Ukraine arrived in Odessa to check the launch of the grain corridor.
On July 22, under the auspices of the UN, Ukraine and Turkey signed an agreement in Istanbul on the resumption of the safe export of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea.
