The average cost of housing in Portugal reached historic highs in 2025 amid sustained demand and limited supply, and analysts expect prices to continue to rise in 2026 despite tight affordability conditions.
According to data from the Portuguese Statistical Office (INE), in October 2025, the median bank valuation of residential real estate exceeded the threshold of €2,000 per square meter for the first time, reaching approximately €2,025 per square meter, which is 17.7% more than a year earlier. This marks more than a year of double-digit annual growth in housing prices.
The apartment segment is rising in price faster than villas: according to Global Property Guide estimates, the median bank valuation of apartments reached €2,345 per square meter (+22.1% year-on-year), while villas reached €1,472 per square meter (+11.8%). The highest prices are recorded in the Greater Lisbon agglomeration and in the Algarve tourist region.
According to the Idealista portal, by November 2025, the median asking price for residential real estate across the country reached around €3,000 per square meter (+7.8% year-on-year). At the same time:
Lisbon remains the most expensive market, with an average price of €5,914 per square meter (+4% over the year).
In Porto, the average price is around €3,908 per square meter (+5.9% over the year).
Inland regions (the center, part of Alentejo) are significantly cheaper – in many municipalities, prices range from €1,400 to €1,700 per square meter, while the most affordable districts in the country, according to local research, offer housing from €800 to €900 per square meter.
At the end of 2024, the INE housing price index (HPI) rose by 9.1%, with existing housing rising by 9.7% and new housing by 7.5%. In real terms (adjusted for inflation), prices have been rising continuously since 2013 and have increased by more than 80% during this period, which is significantly higher than the dynamics in neighboring Spain.
The market remains extremely active. In the first half of 2025, 84,247 residential properties were sold in Portugal, 20% more than in the same period in 2024. Sales of secondary housing amounted to 67,578 properties (+20.6% year-on-year), and new housing – 16,669 (+17.7%).
95% of transactions were made by buyers with tax residency in Portugal (about 80,000 properties, +21.9% year-on-year). Foreigners (both from the EU and third countries) purchased 4,205 properties, which is 7.2% less than a year earlier. Experts attribute the decline in the share of foreigners to reforms: the abolition of “golden visas” for real estate investments and the termination of the Non-Habitual Resident preferential tax regime from 2024, which reduced fiscal incentives for foreign investors.
At the same time, 2024 saw a record volume of transactions: in the third quarter of 2024 alone, €9.05 billion worth of housing was sold (+28% year-on-year), with 93.5% of buyers being Portuguese residents and the share of foreigners at around 6.5%.
Supply remains a bottleneck in the market. In the first half of 2025, 13,244 new homes were completed in the country, only 4.9% more than a year earlier and significantly below the rate of increase in the number of transactions. At the same time, the number of building permits issued is growing rapidly: in the first six months of 2025, 21,057 new housing units were licensed (+28.8% year-on-year), reflecting the growing confidence of developers and the expected acceleration in the introduction of new housing in the coming years.
According to BPI Research estimates, the growth in housing prices in Portugal is likely to continue in 2026. This is indicated by a stable labor market, record employment, and real wage growth, which support household purchasing power, as well as the stabilization of interest rates in the eurozone at “neutral” levels after a period of sharp tightening. Analysts expect that, given the current set of factors, prices in 2026 will grow at a rate above the European average, although probably slower than the double-digit figures of 2024-2025 (we are talking about high single-digit percentage growth, provided there are no new shocks in the eurozone). This will sustain investor interest but keep pressure on housing affordability for the local population, especially in large cities and on the coast.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for global corn exports in the 2025-2026 marketing year by 1.63 million tons to 205.10 million tons, despite the expected reduction in Ukrainian supplies.
According to the December report, with global exports growing, the estimate of global corn carryover stocks, on the contrary, has been reduced by 2.19 million tons to 279.15 million tons, reflecting more active use of grain and the maintenance of a fairly tight supply and demand balance.
For Ukraine, the USDA has lowered its corn harvest forecast from 32 million tons to 29 million tons due to a reduction in acreage and yields, as well as difficult weather conditions during harvesting. The export forecast has been lowered from 24.5 million tons to 23 million tons, domestic consumption from 7 million tons to 6 million tons, and carryover stocks from 1.55 million tons to 0.85 million tons. This means that additional growth in global corn exports will be provided by other major market players.
In its December report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its forecast for global wheat exports in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) by 1.5 million tons to 218.71 million tons.
At the same time, the USDA raised its estimate of global wheat carryover stocks at the end of the season by 3.44 million tons to 274.87 million tons, indicating some easing of tensions in the global market.
With regard to Ukraine, the agency maintained its estimate of the wheat harvest at 23 million tons, but reduced its export forecast from 15 million tons to 14.5 million tons due to an increase in domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 7.6 million tons. This means that most of Ukraine’s wheat will be directed to the domestic market, while other supplier countries will provide the growth in global exports.
Construction, with a rate of 31.5%, made the largest contribution to Ukraine’s GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025, which, according to preliminary data, amounted to 2.1%, the State Statistics Service reported on Thursday.
According to its estimates of GDP using the production method, growth in public administration was 15.1%, in the supply of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning – 6.7%, in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles – 2.6%, and in education – 2.2%.
In calculating GDP using the final use (or expenditure) method, which shows where resources in the economy were directed—to consumption, investment, or public services, the main growth in GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was driven by general government expenditure (12.2%) and gross fixed capital formation (or, more simply, investment) (11.5%).
In addition, final household consumption expenditure grew by 6.7%, according to the State Statistics Service.
“In the third quarter, there were significant shifts in the structure: public finances, investment in fixed capital, and household consumption expenditure strengthened noticeably. In terms of production, the main drivers were construction, the public administration sector, energy, trade, and education. It was these sectors that shaped the positive dynamics of the quarter,” said Igor Gonchar, deputy chairman of the State Statistics Service.
The day before, the State Statistics Service reported that Ukraine’s real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew by 2.1% compared to the third quarter of 2024, while in the second quarter of this year the same indicator was 0.8%, and in the first quarter – 0.9%.
As reported, at the end of October, the National Bank also estimated Ukraine’s real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 at 2.1% compared to the same period last year, while earlier it had forecast it at 2.4%.
According to the updated forecast, the estimate of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of this year has been revised down to 3.4% from 3.5% in July.
Overall, the National Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9% from 2.1% due to energy shortages, the destruction of gas production facilities, and labor shortages, and for 2026 from 2.3% to 2%. The inflation forecast for this year has been improved from 9.7% to 9.2%, while the forecast for next year has been kept at 6.6%.
On December 18, 2025, the Hyatt Regency Kyiv will host the Ukrainian Building Awards 2025 ceremony, the largest industry event that determines the key leaders of the construction and development market in Ukraine.
The event is organized by DMNTR Media Group, a team with 25 years of experience in creating business forums and national awards that bring together developers, architects, manufacturers, investors, and government officials.
More than 1,500 guests and leading Ukrainian media outlets are expected to attend.
The main idea for 2025
“Leaders of reconstruction. Influence. Quality. Reputation.”
The awards focus on identifying companies and individuals who are setting new market standards: from architecture and development to investment, infrastructure, and design.
The Ukrainian Building Awards are an indicator of trust, reputation, and real contribution to the country’s development.
Key highlights of the program
Investment focus
New opportunities for project financing, economic drivers, and approaches to attracting international capital.
The evolution of the developer
How the role of the developer will change in 2025–2026 — from risk management to creating value for society.
Resource strategy and competitiveness
Companies share practices that allow them to scale even in times of uncertainty.
Architecture and urbanism of the future
A look at reconstruction: authenticity, context, technology, and generational synergy.
Reputation as key capital
Why 2025 has permanently changed the rules of the game in communications, PR, and market trust.
Be part of the Ukrainian Building Awards — a professional platform where the standards for 2026 are set.
This is a place where companies make a name for themselves, establish partnerships that influence the market, and gain recognition that matters to investors, customers, and the media community.
The award is not just a ceremony, but a space of status and content, where every speech and every nomination shapes the future of the industry.
Event structure
Date: December 18, 2025
Venue: Hyatt Regency Kyiv, 5 Alla Tarasova Street
Format: offline event, conference + awards ceremony
Time: 11:00 a.m. – 10:00 p.m.
10:00 a.m.–12:00 p.m. — Guest registration and morning networking
12:00–18:00 — Conference, including:
6:00–10:00 p.m. — Ukrainian Building Awards 2025 ceremony
Awards in three categories:
Final part — festive dinner and performance by the band SKY.
Why you should attend
How to join
Registration is available on the official website: www.ubc-ua.info/uba
Organizer contacts:
DMNTR Media Group
Phone: +38 (044) 461 91 28
Email: info@dom-i.kiev.ua
Ukrainian Building Awards 2025 — a space where the reputation of the future is formed and the companies that are building a new Ukraine are determined.
Join us to be among those who shape the rules of the game in the industry.
DMNTR Media Group is a team with 25 years of experience in creating professional events for the architectural, construction, and investment audiences. Key projects include:
— Ukrainian Building Congress
— Ukraine Investment Congress
— All-Ukrainian competition “Interior of the Year”
— Ukraine Urban Awards
— Architectural and Development Award “Creator of the Year”
We also publish the leading architecture and design magazine DMNTR and publish daily insights, reports, news, and analytics on our platforms.
Follow us:
Instagram: www.instagram.com/ukrainian_building_congress
Facebook: www.facebook.com/share/16RUuTVCQ1
Interfax-Ukraine is the official media partner of the event.
On December 4, Kyiv hosted the Petroleum&LPG Ukraine 2025 forum, a long-standing meeting place for operators in the Ukrainian petroleum products market. The conference brought together 280 delegates from 120 companies in the fuel sector, representatives of government agencies, and companies. The forum was organized by the A-95 Consulting Group.
One of the main topics of the conference was international cooperation. Representatives of the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, Naftogaz of Ukraine, Ukrnafta, and the Polish energy company ORLEN S.A. took part in the discussion. As noted by Robert Kwiatkowski, Director of Strategy and Strategic Transformation at ORLEN S.A., Ukraine is a strategic direction for the company’s current activities and development.
“We understand that if we do not help Ukraine, it could be our biggest mistake,” said the Polish top manager.
ORLEN is currently the largest supplier of light petroleum products to Ukraine: according to the A-95 Consulting Group, in 2023-2025, gasoline supplies increased threefold, and diesel fuel supplies increased one and a half times. The company is also a major supplier of road bitumen, lubricants, and petrochemical products.
Serhiy Koretsky, Chairman of the Board of Naftogaz of Ukraine, spoke very highly of the company’s cooperation with the Polish concern.
“ORLEN has become so deeply integrated into the Ukrainian market that sooner or later, the company will likely acquire its own assets in Ukraine,” said the head of Naftogaz, who is actively developing cooperation with the Polish concern in LNG imports and other areas.
According to Deputy Minister of Energy Mykola Kolisnyk, integration into the EU is a guarantee of long-term development of the Ukrainian fuel market. He noted that the transition of the Ukrainian fuel market to EU standards requires the introduction of high environmental standards and modern approaches to the processing of petroleum product waste.
A separate session was devoted to tax discipline, attended by a large delegation of leading officials from the State Tax Service, headed by Acting Chair Lesya Karnaukh. She gave preference to public communication with forum participants, who had a unique opportunity to ask any questions. The greatest interest was in the mechanism for companies to be included in the list of “risky” ones, as well as the tax authorities’ approaches to tax payment standards.
“Without interaction with the market, which strives for fair conditions, we will not be able to work effectively. We are not a punitive body; our goal is to fairly determine tax liabilities,” Lesya Karnaukh said following the discussion.
In turn, A-95 estimated that in 2023-2025, the payment of operating taxes by the largest gas station chains would increase more than twofold, by almost UAH 10 billion.
Other topics of in-depth discussion at Petroleum&LPG Ukraine 2025 included post-war development of maritime and railway infrastructure, creation of petroleum product reserves, development of the bioethanol industry and use of alcohol-containing gasoline, electromobility, and expansion of non-fuel activities at gas stations.
“The fuel market remains the most resilient energy sector thanks to the comprehensive restructuring of the geography and logistics of supplies in 2022. Despite constant shelling and losses, companies in this market are a reliable support for consumers and the state, ensuring stable fuel supplies and paying taxes that are growing year after year,” said the event moderator, Director of the A-95 Consulting Group, Serhiy Kuyun.
The conference partners were traditionally the largest market operators: ORLEN S.A., JSC Ukrnafta, OKKO, UNIMOT S.A. (Poland), UPG, Kemexon (Switzerland), JSC Energo Trade, Western Fuel and Energy Company, AGTG (Switzerland).
The Petroleum&LPG Ukraine 2025 forum has been held annually by the A-95 Consulting Group since 2023. From 2009 to 2019, the company held the Petroleum Ukraine conference, and from 2010 to 2020, the LPG Ukraine conference.
In 2022, the annual Petroleum Ukraine forum was also launched in Warsaw. Warsaw, which is one of the largest events in Eastern Europe dedicated to the motor fuel market.
Interfax-Ukraine is an information partner.
