Analysts at BofA Securities, which expected the Ukrainian economy to fall by 6.8% in 2020, lowered their forecast to 5.2%, while the forecast for the country’s economic recovery in 2021 fell to 4.5% versus the previous forecast of 6.5%.
The weaker-than-expected economic downturn in 2020 also diminishes the base effect for a 2021 recovery, despite the current strong momentum for a recovery in consumer demand, as well as a record low borrowing cost since the 2020 easing cycle, BofA Securities said in a review issued on November 24.
A sustained recovery in consumer activity amid an extremely strong base effect could push inflation above the 5% ± 1 pp target range in the second-third quarters of 2021, which, according to analysts, could force the NBU to raise the key policy rate by about 100 bp in the second half of the coming year.
At the same time, it is predicted that the key policy rate may return to a decline in 2022, as soon as inflationary pressures stabilize.
According to the analysts, in 2021, Ukraine is likely to receive another one or two tranches under the IMF program, including the deferred tranche of 2020. An important condition for them is the restoration and stabilization of anti-corruption institutions, including a possible complete reshuffle in the Constitutional Court, which may take several more months.
According to the review, the attractive yield on Ukrainian government bonds is noted, while the exchange rate remains the main problem for offshore investors.
The analysts said that Ukraine has decent upside potential, dependent on the hryvnia, which is now largely undervalued, but they noted that domestic politics remains a key risk.
Mobile network operators Kyivstar, Vodafone Ukraine and lifecell plan to build up to 30% of new telecom network sites based on the infrastructure sharing model.
“We have agreed on sharing… All operators are aware that it makes no sense to build three networks in some localities and on some roads, that it makes sense to agree to a reasonable story with investments, it makes sense to share networks. According to forecasts, 30% of the new construction will be the sharing network,” Vodafone Ukraine CEO Olha Ustinova said at a briefing in Kyiv on Tuesday.
She also said that operators have great anticipations about the state’s permission to launch spectral sharing, which will allow them to share not only passive infrastructure, but also its active part.
Ustinova also called the elimination of the digital divide one of the most important projects of the telecom industry in Ukraine.
KYIVSTAR, LIFECELL, MOBILE NETWORK, MOBILE OPERATORS, network, VODAFONE
Ukraine since the beginning of the new 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of November 23 had exported 20.17 million tonnes of grain and legumes, which is 3.2 million tonnes less than on the same date last MY.
According to the information and analytical portal of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine, to date, 11.63 million tonnes of wheat (less by 1.4 million tonnes), 3.69 million tonnes of barley (up by 230,000 tonnes) and 4.5 million tonnes of corn (down by 2.1 million tonnes) were exported.
As of November 23 of this year, 66,600 tonnes of flour were also exported.
As reported, in the 2019/2020 MY Ukraine exported a record 57.2 million tonnes of grains, legumes and flour, which is 13.5% more than in the previous MY.
Central Mining and Processing Plant (Central GOK, Kryvy Rih, Dnipropetrovsk region), a member of Metinvest Group, in January-October of this year, according to recent data, reduced the production of pellets by 2% compared to the same period last year – up to 1.86 million tonnes.
As the Interfax-Ukraine agency was informed in the company, 76,000 tonnes of pellets were produced in October, while in September – 202,500 tonnes.
For the ten months of 2020, the production of iron ore concentrate increased by 10.3% compared to the same period in 2019, up to 4.079 million tonnes, including 443,970 tonnes produced in October (in September – 399,520 tonnes).
“The reason for the decrease in production of pellets in October compared to the previous month is the autumn repairs at the pelletizing plant – the work was carried out for 21 days,” the company reported.
As reported, Central GOK in 2019 increased the production of pellets by 4.3% compared to the previous year, to 2.402 million tonnes, iron ore concentrate, by 0.5%, to 4.436 million tonnes.
Central GOK is one of the five largest producers of mining raw materials in Ukraine. It specializes in extraction and production of iron ore raw materials – concentrate with an iron content of 65% and 68.2%, as well as pellets with an iron content of 63.9%
ICU Investment Group has improved its forecast for the fall of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) to 5% from 5.7%, head of the group’s macroeconomic research department Serhiy Nikolaichuk has said.
“In total, the economy will contract by about 5% in 2020 (compared to 5.7% in our September forecast). This will lead to a decrease in GDP below the level of 2018, but compared to most other countries, the Ukrainian economy will demonstrate better dynamics,” he wrote on Facebook.
According to the investment group, GDP growth in Ukraine in the fourth quarter of this year and in the first quarter of the next (to the previous quarters) will be “slow and rather shaky.”
“However, the pace will still be positive,” the expert specified.
He also noted that the impetus from the “opening of the economy” after tough quarantine restrictions, which affected the decline in GDP fall in the previous quarters, has exhausted, so further growth will require other drivers.
“The new outbreak of COVID-19 continues to gain momentum, indicating that the recently introduced weekend quarantine could be replaced with tougher measures across the country,” Nikolaichuk added.
At the same time, he noted that against the background of the return of income to the “pre-epidemic trajectory,” active growth of private consumption continues, and the weakness of private investment is compensated by the ongoing projects of Big Construction.
Nikolaichuk added that ICU expects a significant fiscal impulse for the economy at the end of 2020, despite the fact that it will be lower than provided for in the law on the national budget.
The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) has permitted the Dragon Capital investment company to acquire over 50% of the shares of Treeum Holdings Limited, the owner of the Finance.ua and Minfin.com.ua publications, as well as Finline, Bank Online and Multi.ua.
“Permission is granted to Dragon Capital Investments Limited (Nicosia, Cyprus) to acquire shares of Treeum Holdings Limited (Larnaca, Cyprus), which grants that 50% of the votes in the company’s management body are exceeded,” the committee said on its website on Monday.
According to the information on the holding’s website, Treeum is a Ukrainian online platform that compares and sells financial products, supports an online currency exchange platform, reliable ratings and statistics, as well as news, comments and professional analytics.
The revenue of Finance.ua in 2019 amounted to about UAH 17.8 million, net profit – about UAH 0.5 million, that of Minfinmedia – UAH 36.9 million and almost UAH 1 million, respectively, Banking Class – UAH 10.9 million and UAH 0.1 million.
Multi.ua and Finline last year saw revenues of UAH 6.6 million and UAH 1.3 million, respectively, and a net loss of UAH 0.7 million and UAH 2.3 million.
According to the public register, Ksenia Vaisman, a Russian citizen living near Kyiv, is indicated as the beneficiary of Treeum Holdings Limited.
This year, USAID Financial Sector Transformation Project (FST) financed the launch of the LIGA.Money platform by LigaBusinessInform Investment Agency. According to the agency, NV and Finclub also participated in the competition, while the companies of Treeum Holdings were not admitted to it.
Dragon Capital is one of the largest investment companies in Ukraine. It works in the field of direct investment and financial services, provides a full range of investment banking and brokerage services to corporate and private clients. The ultimate beneficiary of Dragon Capital in the public register is a Czech citizen, President of the European Business Association Tomas Fiala.
Fiala is the owner of the NV media holding, which includes the eponymous magazine, portal and radio.
