The article summarizes and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
In the first quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s real GDP fell by 10.5% compared to the first quarter of 2022, after falling by 31.4% in the fourth quarter, 30.6% in the third quarter, 36.9% in the second quarter, and 14.9% in the first quarter of last year.
Overall, analysts expect modest GDP growth in Ukraine in 2023. Thus, the World Bank slightly downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s gross domestic product growth in 2023 to 2% from 3.3%, which it predicted in January 2023. Raiffeisen Bank maintained its forecast of 1.8% growth in Ukraine’s gross domestic product for 2023.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Kyiv-based think tank Club of Experts, drew attention to key macroeconomic indicators. “Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators have stabilized, and international reserves due to borrowings are breaking records, but Ukraine’s negative foreign trade balance is having a negative impact on the economy,” said Maksim Urakin.
Inflation in Ukraine will decline to 15.5% in 2023, and real incomes will increase by 1%, according to the updated improved forecast released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following the first review of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program.
Ukraine’s total public debt grew by 3.6% and reached a new historical high: in dollar terms, by $4.37 billion to $124.28 billion, and in hryvnia terms, by UAH 159.9 billion to UAH 4 trillion 544.9 billion, according to the Ministry of Finance website.
At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves as of June 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $37 billion 311.3 million, up 4% or $1.358 billion in May, and have updated an 11-year high, the National Bank reported.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine in May 2023 accelerated to 0.5% from 0.2% in April after slowing from 1.5% in March, 0.7% in February and 0.8% in January.
In January-April 2023, Ukraine reduced electricity production by 19.4% (by 8.8 billion kWh) compared to the same period in 2022, to 36.5 billion kWh.
Nova Post Group has announced the opening of NovaPost branches in Latvia and Estonia in October and November 2023.
“The opening of the first Nova Post branch in Latvia is expected in October and in Estonia in November,” Svetlana Knizka, CEO of Nova Post in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, was quoted as saying in the group’s press release on Monday.
It is indicated that before the opening of branches in these countries will work the possibility to call a courier to any address throughout Latvia and Estonia to receive parcels or send them to Ukraine. The group announced the launch of this service for mid-September 2023.
It is specified that the courier service will work on weekdays from 8:00 to 17:00, it will be possible to send or receive documents and parcels up to 30 kg, delivery from 5 days.
As reported, NovaPost already operates in Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Moldova, Romania and Germany.
The network of NovaPost in Ukraine at the beginning of July included more than 10 thousand offices and more than 14 thousand post offices.
According to Standard-Rating, revenue of Nova Posta in the first quarter of 2023 increased 2.1 times to UAH 8 billion 83.1 million, EBITDA – almost 4.4 times to UAH 1 billion 307.8 million, and net profit – almost eight times to UAH 1 billion 54.91 million.
Israel will send several tons of medicines to Ukraine in the coming days at the request of the Ukrainian side, Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Michael Brodsky said.
“Today there was a conversation between the health ministers of Israel and Ukraine. In the coming days, at the request of the Ukrainian side, Israel will send several tons of medicines to Ukraine,” Brodsky wrote in his Telegram channel on Monday.
The medical laboratory Cinevo has reopened 95% of its branches and 85% of its franchise outlets that were closed after the start of the full-scale invasion.
According to the medical laboratory in its press release, the Cinevo Ukraine laboratory network currently has 330 laboratory locations in 137 settlements, while before the full-scale invasion the network had 352 locations in 155 settlements.
The network also has seven operating laboratories in Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Dnipro.
In addition, the network reports that Cinevo has reopened its laboratory in Kharkiv, which, like the laboratory in Kharkiv, has been suspended since the full-scale invasion for security reasons.
Synevo Ukraine, a European network of medical laboratories, is part of Medicover, a leading international healthcare and diagnostic services company. The international laboratory network Synevo is represented in 10 European countries, and Synevo laboratories operate in Germany, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Georgia, Moldova, Bulgaria, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina. In 2017, Cinévo Ukraine, as part of Medicover, was listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm, becoming the first and only healthcare company in Ukraine to complete an IPO.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August forecast improved the forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine in the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) from 17.5 million tons to 21 million tons, corn – from 25 million tons to 27.5 million tons due to larger than expected planted areas and the second highest yield in history.
At the same time, the document notes, due to the discontinuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the export forecast was kept unchanged at 10.5 million tons and 19.5 million tons, respectively.
As a result, USDA for wheat raised the forecast for domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 8.1 million tons, and transitional residues at the end of MY – from 1.59 million tons to 4.13 million tons, while for corn, the entire crop growth forecast is balanced by an increase in expected transitional residues – from 1.89 million tons to 3.89 million tons.
Overall, the U.S. agency increased its forecast for this year’s feed grain harvest in Ukraine from 31.47 million tons to 33.97 million tons, estimating their exports at 21.37 million tons and raising the forecast for transitional residues from 2.27 million tons to 4.77 million tons.
In the update, USDA estimated last MY 2022/23 wheat crop, the same as a month ago, at 21.5 million tons vs. 33.01 million tons a year earlier, and exports at 16.8 million tons vs. 18.84 million tons, respectively, while reducing transitional residues from 5.27 million tons to 1.65 million tons.
The USDA sees the feed grain harvest falling to 33.93 million tons from 53.51 million tons in MY 2021/22, while exports fell to just 30.80 million tons from 32.93 million tons due to a reduction in transitional residues from 8.69 million tons to 2.15 million tons.
Including the corn crop, last MY’s harvest fell to 27 million tons from 42.13 million tons a year earlier, while exports rose to 28 million tons from 26.98 million tons, also due to a reduction in transitional residue from 7.59 million tons to 1.39 million tons.
USDA’s new forecast for the global wheat crop in MY 2023/24 is projected to reach 793.4 million tons, down 3.3 million tons from the previous forecast. Total wheat exports are forecast at 209.4 million tons, 2.23 million tons less than previously expected. Analysts projected final world wheat stocks at the end of MY at 265.6 million tons, 0.92 million tons less than the previous forecast.
For corn, the estimate for this year’s world harvest was lowered by almost 11 million tons to 1 billion 213.5 million tons, while exports were lowered by 2.07 million tons to 196.19 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for U.S. wheat production by 0.13 million tons to 47.2 million tons. Exports are expected at 19.05 million tons (-0.68 million tons).
Corn harvest is down 5.71 million tons to 398.82 million tons and exports are down 1.27 million tons to 58.65 million tons.
In the EU, USDA worsened its wheat crop estimate by 3 million tons to 135 million tons, keeping exports at 38.5 million tons.
For coarse grains, the EU crop forecast has been worsened by 6.85 million tons to 136.45 million tons and exports by 2.21 million tons to 10.59 million tons, with the estimated corn crop now down 3.7 million tons to 59.7 million tons and exports down 0.9 million tons to 4.1 million tons.
For Russia, the forecast for wheat exports at the same crop estimate of 85 million tons is increased by 0.5 million tons to 48 million tons, and coarse grains is kept at 8.91 million tons with the crop estimate lowered by 2.85 million tons to 39.4 million tons. Including corn, exports are still expected at the level of 4.2 million tons with a decrease in the harvest by 1.7 million tons – to 14.6 million tons.
PJSC IC “ROM Ukraine Life Insurance” (Kiev) has made 927 insurance payments for the total amount of UAH 22,6 mln following the results of six months of 2023, that is by 9,2% more than for the same period of 2022.
According to the press release of the insurer, almost 50% of the amount falls on payments of the accumulated amount due to the termination of insurance contracts.
Payments on other insurance events exceeded UAH 11,7 mln. Mostly they have been made on cases of traumatization, occurrence of critical illnesses, receipt of various disability groups by the clients of the company. At the same time, almost 60% of insured events are payments related to traumatic injuries of insured persons.
The amount of insurance payments of “ROM Ukraine Life Insurance” for the first half of this year is UAH 2 mln more than for the same period of 2022.
PJSC IC ROM Ukraine Life Insurance has been operating since 2003. It is a part of PZU group – one of the oldest and the largest in Poland by the volume of gross premiums written (according to the Polish Financial Supervision Commission).
