The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Economic Entities during Martial Law or State of War” the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months from the date of its completion.
The exception is the publication of information about the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators of 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Committee, the National Bank and analytical centers.
Maxim Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Maxim Urakin cited data from the National Bank of Ukraine on the improvement of the financial situation in 2023 compared to 2022.
“Last year was marked by more favorable macroeconomic conditions for the financial industry. GDP growth generally exceeded forecasts, and inflation rates declined. Even after the downgrade, the discount rate remains high enough to make hryvnia investments attractive. Thanks to the efforts of the National Bank and market readiness, the transition to a policy of managed flexibility of the hryvnia exchange rate was successful. At the same time, this success was ensured primarily by stable receipts from partners within the framework of macrofinancial assistance and an increase in the share of exports of agricultural products,” Urakin emphasized.
The expert noted that the main risks for the economy remain the duration of the war and instability of international aid.
“In the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 8.2%. The negative balance of foreign trade increased by 3.2 times, which is a worrying signal. Public debt has slightly decreased compared to August figures, but already in 2024 it may exceed the country’s GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability,” the economist said.
The pace of international aid to Ukraine, in turn, has fallen significantly in Q4 2023 – Q1 2024, which could negatively affect the economic recovery this year amid the war.
Global Economic Outlook
Maxim Urakin also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth in 2024 to 2.2%.
“The analysis of global GDP dynamics shows that the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, but geopolitical instability has a restraining effect on this growth. According to Maxim Urakin, it is important to monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. Ukraine, in this context, needs to focus on strengthening domestic political stability, restoring its economic potential and continuing reforms to improve its post-war prospects and strengthen its position on the global stage,” the expert explained.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to rebuild Ukraine after the war and public debt management.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video on how the GDP of countries has been changing in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here.
Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak held a meeting with the US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink.
“Held a meeting with Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States in Ukraine Bridget Brink. Told about massive Russian shelling of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and the difficult situation in several regions of our state,” Yermak wrote in his Telegram channel on Saturday.
“Thanked for Ukraine’s support in these super difficult times,” Yermak added.
Andriy Yermak, Brigitte Brink, Office of the President, U.S. AMBASSADOR, UKRAINE
The top ten steel-producing countries at the end of February are as follows: China (81.181 million tons, up 3.5% on Jan-Feb-2023), India (11.799 million tons, up 11.4%), Japan (6.989 million tons, up 1.1%), USA (6.453 million tons, down 1.2%), Russia (5.7 million tons, down 4, 4%), South Korea (5.128 million tons, down 1.5%), Germany (3.124 million tons, up 4.4%), Turkey (3.084 million tons, up 46.6%), Brazil (2.779 million tons, up 13.1%), and Iran (2.239 million tons, up 14.3%).
Cumulatively, steelmaking in February 2024 increased by 3.7% y-o-y to 148.838 million tons in 2023.
In January-February 2024, the top ten steel-producing countries are as follows: China (167.960 million tons, up 1.6% on Jan-Feb-2023), India (24.469 million tons, up 10%), Japan (14.253 million tons, up 0.8%), USA (12.998 million tons, down 2.6%), Russia (11.738 million tons, down 3, 2%), South Korea (10.849 million tons, up 0.2%), Turkey (6.332 million tons, up 34.5%), Germany (6.194 million tons, up 4.6%), Iran (4.842 million tons, up 26.5%) and Brazil (5.506 million tons, up 6.4%).
Overall, in 2M-2024, steelmaking increased by 3% y-o-y to 306.883 million tons.
Ukraine produced 1.076 million tons of steel in 2M-2024, which is 52% higher than in the same period of 2023 (708 thousand tons in 2M-2023). The country is ranked 21st in 2M-2024.
As reported, for 2023 China produced 1 billion 19.080 mln tons at the level of the previous year), India (140.171 mln tons, +11.8%), Japan (86.996 mln tons, -2.5%), USA (80.664 mln tons, +0.2%), Russia (75.8 million tons, +5.6%), South Korea (66.676 million tons, +1.3%), Germany (35.438 million tons, -3.9%), Turkey (33.714 million tons, -4%), Brazil (31.869 million tons, -6.5%), and Iran (31.139 million tons, +1.8%).
In total, 71 countries produced 1 billion 849.734 million tons of steel in 2023, 0.1% less than in 2022.
At the same time, Ukraine produced 6.228 million tons of steel in 2023, which is 0.6% lower than the volumes for 2022. The country is in 22nd place for 2023.
In total, 64 countries produced 1 billion 831.467 million tons of steel in 2022, 4.3% less than in 2021.
The European Council, which brings together EU heads of state, at a meeting on March 21-22, supported in principle the extension of the liberalization of the trade regime with Ukraine for another year, which provides preferential conditions for Ukrainian exports to the EU, but the final decision is still being agreed upon, said Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishyna.
“The European Council voted in favor of the decision on trade liberalization,” she said at an exporters’ summit organized by Forbes Ukraine on Friday, adding that only a number of technical issues remain.
“The decision on trade liberalization was discussed during the European Council meeting. EU leaders supported the importance of continuing autonomous trade preferences. The approval process is ongoing,” Stefanyshyna said in a comment to Interfax-Ukraine.
The Deputy Prime Minister noted that the conclusion of the European Council meeting states that it calls for continuing work without delay to resolve issues related to autonomous trade preferences for Ukraine “in a fair and balanced manner.”
“At the same time, the need to find a long-term solution within the framework of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and the free trade area is enshrined,” Stefanyshyna also said.
Earlier it was reported that the European Council and the European Parliament had previously agreed to extend the suspension of import duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports to the EU for another year, until June 5, 2025, by strengthening protective measures for sensitive agricultural products. The new safeguard measures, in particular, oblige the European Commission to automatically reintroduce tariff quotas if imports of eggs, sugar, oats, corn, cereals, and honey exceed the arithmetic average of imports in 2022-2023.
At the same time, large European agricultural associations and farmers’ unions claim that the proposed measures are insufficient to protect the EU market from imports of Ukrainian agricultural products and demand that restrictions be strengthened. They insist, in particular, that when calculating import limits from Ukraine, data for the pre-war year 2021, when such imports were minimal, should be taken into account instead of the two war years proposed by the European Commission – 2022-2023. In addition, farmers’ associations propose to include wheat in the list of sensitive agricultural products whose exports will be limited by a safeguard mechanism.
The government of Ukraine proposes to increase the excise tax rate for alcoholic beverages classified as “intermediate products” from 8.42 to 12.23 UAH per 1 liter, i.e. to the level of the rate for sparkling and carbonated wines.
As reported by the Ministry of Finance, the corresponding bill with amendments to the Tax Code, the Cabinet of Ministers approved at a meeting on Friday.
“Revision of excise duties is due to the need to bring national legislation closer to the legislation of the European Union, which is relevant in view of Ukraine’s status as a candidate country for EU membership,” the Finance Ministry said.
The document provides for bringing in compliance with the norms of the EU Council Directive No. 92/83/EEC classification of alcoholic beverages in the part concerning the definition of the term “intermediate products” – wines and other fermented beverages referred to codes 2204, 2205, 2206 according to the Ukrainian classification of goods for foreign economic activity. In particular, we are talking about vermouth, cider and perry.
The Ministry of Finance predicts an increase in revenues from such an increase at the level of 4.5 million UAH per month.
The international company Unilever has started construction of a new factory in Bila Tserkva, Kyiv region. Today a commemorative capsule was laid at the site of the future enterprise in the industrial park “Bila Tserkva”, the Head of Kyiv Regional State Administration Ruslan Kravchenko said on his Facebook page on Friday.
It is also reported that the amount of investment in the factory is € 20 million. Almost 100 new jobs will be created at the enterprise. The factory will produce personal care products, shampoos and shower gels, the goods will be mainly oriented for the Ukrainian market. Potentially, the enterprise will produce products for other markets in Europe.
The report notes that the total area of the site for the development is 4.2 hectares. The production capacity of the enterprise is more than 5000 tons per year. The construction of the factory is planned to be completed at the end of 2024. Erection will take place taking into account the highest environmental standards. There will be comfortable working conditions, office space is designed to meet the needs of immobile groups. A ground mobile shelter has already been arranged for safe work, and in time an underground shelter will also be built.
“The construction site of the new factory in the industrial park was not chosen by chance – there are all necessary communications and road infrastructure. The development of industrial parks supports the restoration of industry in Kyivshchyna during Russia’s war against Ukraine. The opening of new production facilities contributes to the income and well-being of local communities, increases tax revenues and stimulates the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in the region”, – said Ruslan Kravchenko.
Ruslan Kravchenko thanked the CEO of Unilever Ukraine Vasyl Bovdilov and the founder of UFuture, which includes the industrial park “Bila Tserkva”, Vasyl Khmelnitsky for the example, which “should be followed by other investors and joint efforts to develop the economic potential of Kyiv region”.
Earlier it was reported that Unilever Plc will allocate EUR20 mln for the construction of a factory in the Kiev region to produce personal care products, shampoos and shower gels under the brands Dove, Axe, TRESemmé and Clear,
