In its February report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine in 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) by 2 million tons, compared to January data, to 22.5 million tons from 20.5 million tons, and wheat exports by 0.5 million tons, to 13.5 million tons from 13 million tons.
According to a report on the U.S. Department of Agriculture website Thursday, the forecast for corn production in the current MY is maintained at 27 million tons and wheat at 21 million tons.
Also in the February forecast, the estimate of transitional corn balances in Ukraine at the end of 2022/2023 MY was reduced by 2 million tons to 3.39 million tons from 5.39 million tons, and by 0.5 million tons for wheat to 4.21 million tons from 4.71 million tons.
At the same time, the estimate of domestic consumption of corn in Ukraine in 2022/2023 MY remained at 5 million tons, and wheat – 4 million tons.
In general, the forecast of feed grain exports in Ukraine in 2022/23 MY in the February forecast was increased by 2 million tons – to 24.93 million tons from 22.93 million tons in January, and the forecast of its production was kept at 34.16 million tons.
As reported, Ukrainian agrarians by February 3, 2023 harvested 78.93 million tons of major crops from 18.46 million hectares, including 53.2 million tons of grain and leguminous crops. Wheat in 2022 harvested 20.2 million tons from 5 million hectares, and corn – 25.9 million tons from 3.9 million hectares.
Ukraine from the beginning of 2022/2023 MY to February 3, exported 27.46 million tons of crops, which is 29.8% less than the same period of the previous MY. External markets supplied 15.68 million tons of corn (-2.1% compared to the same period last year), 9.84 million tons of wheat (1.75 times less), 1.83 million tons of barley (3 times less), 12.8 thousand tons of rye (12.3 times less) and 85 tons of flour (+33%).
Egyptian State Agency for Food Purchasing (GASC) has purchased 60 thousand tons of corn of Ukrainian origin under direct agreement, according to the website of “APK-Inform” agency on Monday.
According to its data, the agricultural products were purchased from the operator Egyptian African Co in two batches of 30 thousand tons each. The price of corn was $323/ton, including corn itself bought at $308/ton on FOB terms (delivery of goods before loading on board the ship), and the freight of the ship cost $15/ton.
Corn delivery to Egypt should take place from the second half of February to the beginning of March 2023.
Two dry cargo ships carrying corn and barley departed Ukrainian ports on Monday, the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) reported.
“Two ships left Ukrainian ports on January 23, carrying a total of 42,560 tons of grain and other food as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” the report said.
Dry cargo ship Amyntor will deliver 27 260 tons of corn to the Netherlands, ship Ata will carry 15.3 thousand tons of barley to Israel.
Seven ships are also headed to Ukrainian ports, which on Monday passed through the maritime humanitarian corridor.
“As of January 23, the total tonnage of grain and other agricultural products exported from the three Ukrainian ports is 18,372,920 tons. A total of 1,340 vessels have so far been allowed to move: 667 to arrive at Ukrainian ports and 673 to leave them,” the JCC summarized.
Four dry cargo ships will deliver corn and wheat to China and Spain, the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) reported.
“Four vessels left Ukrainian ports on January 19, carrying a total of 229,749 tons of grain and other foodstuffs as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” the report said.
Three vessels Star Sapphire (74 904 tons of wheat), Mana (47 267 tons of wheat and 11 420 tons of corn) and Serenity Ibtihaj (26 653 tons of corn) left for Spain. Vessel Andros Spirit will carry 69.505 tons of corn to China.
Four dry cargo ships are also on their way to Ukrainian ports, which passed through the maritime humanitarian corridor on Thursday.
“As of January 19, the total tonnage of grain and other agricultural products exported from the three Ukrainian ports is 18,051,260 tons. A total of 1,316 dry cargo ships have been allowed to move so far: 652 to arrive at Ukrainian ports and 664 to leave them,” the JCC summarized.
cargo ships, CHINA, CORN, SPAIN, WHEAT
Three ships carrying corn and wheat left Ukrainian ports on Tuesday, the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) reported.
“Three ships left Ukrainian ports on January 17, carrying a total of 119,000 tons of grain and other food as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” the report said.
Two dry-cargo vessels Kestrel S (26.5 thousand tons of wheat) and Great Arsenal (25.5 tons of wheat) went to Turkey. Navios Helios vessel will deliver 67 thousand tons of corn to China.
Four dry-cargo ships are also on their way to Ukrainian ports, which on Tuesday passed through the maritime humanitarian corridor.
The JCC reported that “77 applications for participation in the initiative have been submitted.” Nine ships are awaiting permission to enter Ukrainian ports, while 24 loaded dry cargo ships are waiting to depart for their destinations.
“As of January 17, the total tonnage of grain and other agricultural products exported from the three Ukrainian ports is 17,757,311 tons. A total of 1,307 dry cargo vessels have been allowed to move so far: 649 to arrive at Ukrainian ports and 658 to leave them,” the JCC summarized.
In Ukraine the corn harvest of 2022 remains unharvested from 15% of the area, so because of the wintering of part of the crop in the fields its quality will be much worse than in a more favorable 2021.
The head of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Foodstuffs of Ukraine Mykola Solsky said at a briefing in Kiev on Monday that the final quality of corn harvested in 2022 will be judged in February, after the end of its harvesting.
“Day by day its (unharvested corn – IF-U) quality worsens. Of course, farmers, elevator operators and traders know how to work with it and level out the quality indicators. However, compared with last year (2021 – IF-U) the quality will be much worse. We will be able to say exactly how much worse at the end of February, because significant amounts of corn remain in the fields,” the minister said.
Solsky recalled that by the beginning of last year’s winter corn was not harvested from one-third of the area, while now this figure is about half as much, but it is still too much.
“We have a much worse crop this year because for a number of reasons we have entered a prolonged harvest, which in itself is quite difficult: severe temperature fluctuations prevent farmers from working and damage the quality of grain. I think the percentage of losses, depending on the farmer, can be from a few percent to 15%. It depends on the type of corn, moisture content, with which he “came in” at the beginning of the frost, the current temperature drop,” – the Minister explained.
Earlier Minagropolitiki reported that by January 13, Ukraine harvested a total of 23.5 million tons of corn from 3.6 million hectares, including 1.4 million tons of corn from 0.2 million hectares during the week of January 6-13. 15% of the planned areas are not harvested.
As reported, Ukraine in 2021 harvested a record crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds at 106 million tons: 84 million tons of cereals and legumes (including 40 million tons of corn), and 22.6 million tons of oilseeds.
