Exports of Ukrainian IT services in January–August 2026 increased by 4% compared to the same period last year—to $4.46 billion, according to data from the National Bank of Ukraine analyzed by Experts Club.
In terms of foreign exchange revenue, the sector has effectively returned to the levels seen in the corresponding period of 2023, though it has not yet reached the peak figures of 2022.
In January–August 2022, the volume of IT exports was approximately 9% higher than the current figure.
Thus, the trend of recent years can be divided into two periods: after a record-breaking 2022, Ukrainian IT exports began to decline, and in 2026, they are once again showing growth.
The importance of IT for the entire Ukrainian services sector remains particularly significant. In the first eight months of 2026, Ukraine exported services worth $10.9 billion, which is approximately 6% higher than the figure for the same period last year.
IT accounted for 41% of this total—that is, more than $4 out of every $10 Ukraine earned from service exports.
The sector’s share of total foreign trade also remains significant. Total exports of goods and services for January–August amounted to $35.8 billion, of which $4.46 billion came from IT companies and specialists.
As a result, the IT sector accounts for about 12% of the country’s total exports—roughly one in every eight dollars of export revenue.
If current growth rates continue, the sector could end 2026 with its best performance in several years; however, growth rates will need to accelerate to return to the record levels seen in 2022.
Data source: National Bank of Ukraine.
Ukraine earned $4.46 billion from IT services exports in January–August 2026, with the technology sector accounting for about 12% of the country’s total exports of goods and services, according to data from the National Bank of Ukraine analyzed by the Experts Club research and analysis center.
Thus, approximately one in every eight dollars of Ukraine’s export revenue comes from IT services.
Ukraine’s total exports of goods and services for the first eight months of 2026 amounted to $35.8 billion and remained virtually unchanged compared to the same period last year.
The bulk of foreign exchange earnings continues to come from goods exports—$24.9 billion, or about 70% of the total. Exports of services totaled $10.9 billion, of which $4.46 billion came from IT.
Thus, with services accounting for about 30% of the country’s total exports, the IT sector alone accounts for approximately 12% of Ukraine’s total export revenue.
As noted by analysts at Experts Club, these figures demonstrate the special role of IT in Ukraine’s foreign trade. Unlike goods exports, technology services are virtually independent of maritime logistics, border capacity, and the physical transportation of products.
Furthermore, IT remains the largest component of Ukraine’s service exports. Computer services account for about 41% of the service sector’s total export revenue.
From January through August, Ukraine’s service exports reached $10.9 billion, an increase of approximately 6% compared to the same period in 2025. IT exports grew by 4% to $4.46 billion.
Despite this recovery, the IT sector has not yet returned to its 2022 all-time high. IT service exports for the first eight months of 2026 remain approximately 9% below the figure for the corresponding period in 2022.
Thus, Ukrainian IT exports are simultaneously demonstrating a recovery from the decline of previous years and maintaining an exceptionally significant role in generating the country’s foreign exchange revenue.
Data source: National Bank of Ukraine. Calculations of the export structure are based on NBU data published by Opendatabot.
In September 2026, the State Customs Service of Ukraine transferred 75.2 billion hryvnia in customs duties to the state budget, which is 18.1 billion hryvnia more than in the same month last year.
According to Open4Business, citing data from the State Customs Service, revenues increased by 31.7% compared to September 2025, when 57.1 billion hryvnias were transferred to the budget.
The agency noted that actual revenue in September exceeded the indicative target set by the Ministry of Finance by 4.6 billion hryvnia.
One of the main factors driving the growth in revenue was the increase in the volume of taxable imports. In September 2026, this volume amounted to $7.3 billion, which is 23.7% more than a year earlier.
In particular, revenue from customs clearance of natural gas rose significantly—by 2.8 billion hryvnias—as did revenue from passenger cars (2.2 billion hryvnias), petroleum products (1.8 billion hryvnias), and coal (1.3 billion hryvnias).
Additional revenue was also generated by imports of telephones—by 0.9 billion UAH, power generators—by 0.7 billion UAH, and trucks—by 0.6 billion UAH.
At the same time, customs duty exemptions granted during customs clearance of goods in September totaled 25.3 billion UAH, which is 5.9 billion UAH, or 30.4%, more than in September of last year.
The largest amounts of exemptions were for defense-related goods—13.1 billion UAH, goods imported under free trade agreements—5.7 billion UAH, and energy equipment—2.4 billion UAH.
Thus, despite the increase in the volume of exemptions granted, the growth in imports and payments for certain major commodity groups allowed the State Customs Service to significantly increase revenues to the state budget.
The State Customs Service administers customs payments when goods cross Ukraine’s customs border. Customs revenues—primarily import VAT, excise taxes, and duties—are one of the largest sources of revenue for the state budget.
According to Interfax-Ukraine, Ukraine’s economy showed the first signs of emerging from a recession in the first half of 2026, however, the high foreign trade deficit, inflationary pressures, and the dependence of public finances on international aid remain key macroeconomic risks, according to the latest issue of “Economic Monitoring.”
As noted by Maksym Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, after real GDP fell by 0.6% year-over-year in the first quarter, the economy returned to growth in April–June.
In the second quarter, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by 0.4% compared with the same period last year and by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter. At the same time, the National Bank’s forecast projected growth of the Ukrainian economy at only 1.3% for the full year of 2026.
“Positive factors in the first half of the year included the resumption of at least minimal GDP growth, the return of international reserves to above $50 billion, stability in the foreign exchange market, more consistent international financing, and the adaptability of Ukrainian businesses. The main risks remain the war, the state of the energy sector, high production costs, a labor shortage, weak commodity exports, and a growing trade imbalance. Ukraine has a significant supply of external liquidity, but it cannot replace domestic economic growth,” Urakin noted.
Consumer inflation slowed to 7.2% in June, while core inflation accelerated to 8.1%. The NBU’s discount rate remained at 15%.
At the same time, after four months of decline, Ukraine’s international reserves increased by 12.1% in June—to $51.27 billion. The NBU’s foreign exchange interventions remained substantial.
Foreign trade remains one of the main structural risks to the Ukrainian economy. From January through June 2026, merchandise imports totaled approximately $49.3 billion, while exports amounted to about $21 billion. Thus, the merchandise trade deficit reached approximately $28.3 billion.
Public finances also remain under significant strain. Revenues to the General Fund of the state budget for the first half of the year totaled nearly 1.9 trillion UAH, while expenditures amounted to approximately 2.23 trillion UAH.
Approximately 1.4 trillion UAH, or about 63% of all General Fund expenditures, was allocated to the security and defense sector. The volume of international grants totaled 569.6 billion hryvnia.
According to Urakin, one of the main objectives of economic policy should be to transform significant imports of equipment, international funding, and defense spending into a foundation for creating new domestic production capacity.
“The next phase of economic policy should consist not only of maintaining financial stability, but also of transforming imported equipment, international funds, and defense spending into new production assets. The foundation for long-term development should be energy self-sufficiency, the defense-industrial complex, agricultural processing, machine building, production localization, logistics, digital technologies, and exports of high-value-added products,” says the founder of Experts Club.
At the same time, the first half of the year revealed significant differences between the world’s largest economies and emerging markets.
The Chinese economy grew by 4.7% in the first six months of 2026, while India posted a growth rate of about 7.8% in April–June.
Turkey continued to combine economic growth with extremely high inflation. In the second quarter, its GDP increased by 2.3% year-over-year and by 1.1% compared to the previous quarter, while annual inflation in June remained near 32%.
Brazil showed more moderate growth: its GDP in the second quarter increased by 2% year-over-year and by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter. In the first half of the year, the country’s economy grew by 1.9%, and annual inflation in June slowed to 4.64%.
“Key emerging economies ended the first half of the year with very different growth patterns. China grew by 4.7%, but its second quarter was weaker than the first, and domestic consumption lags significantly behind industrial output and exports. India continues to grow by nearly 8%, driven by the size of its domestic market and investment. Turkey remains an example of how inflation exceeding 30% limits the quality of economic growth, while Brazil is showing more moderate growth with gradual control of inflation. For Ukraine, the main conclusion remains the same: long-term growth requires its own industrial, technological, and export base,” Urakin emphasized.
In his assessment, the first half of the year confirmed the viability of Ukraine’s macrofinancial stabilization model, but at the same time revealed its limitations.
“The return of GDP to modest growth and the replenishment of reserves are positive signs; however, the $28.3 billion merchandise trade deficit, high underlying inflationary pressures, and the budget’s dependence on external financing reveal the limits of this model. Only by developing its own production and export base will Ukraine be able to transition from an economy of wartime stabilization to a model of sustainable postwar growth,” concluded Maksym Urakin.
“Economic Monitoring” is a monthly analytical and statistical publication led by Maksym Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics. The publication analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world’s leading economies, as well as trends in GDP, inflation, public finances, international reserves, foreign trade, and key risks to economic development.
Ukraine and Honduras have signed a “roadmap” for deepening bilateral cooperation for 2026–2029, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga announced.
“The signing of a ‘roadmap’ to deepen cooperation between Ukraine and Honduras for 2026–2029 was an important step in strengthening our relations,” he wrote on social media platform X.
Sibiga reported that he had met with Honduran Foreign Minister Mirey Agüero de Corrales following her visit to Kyiv as part of the Honduran president’s delegation.
According to him, the parties agreed on the importance of expanding economic and business ties.
Sibiga thanked Agüero de Corrales for her attention to Ukraine and noted that her visit to Kyiv allowed her to see the consequences of the Russian war firsthand and strengthen mutual understanding between the two countries.
He specifically emphasized Honduras’s position on the illegal activities of the “shadow fleet,” particularly the need to end the practice of registering ships under the Honduran flag.
The parties also discussed the need to restore freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, the protection of Ukrainian ports, global food security, and the unimpeded export of Ukrainian agricultural products.
Sibiga briefed his counterpart on efforts to establish an International Commission for the Settlement of Claims and other international initiatives aimed at ensuring accountability and justice.
The ministers also discussed cooperation on the return to Ukraine of children abducted and deported by Russia, as well as practical steps to intensify these efforts.
According to Sibiga, Ukraine counts on Honduras’ continued support in its efforts to achieve a comprehensive and lasting peace.
Regional elections in Germany on September 20 demonstrated the weakening positions of traditional parties and the further fragmentation of the German electorate: Alternative for Germany (AfD) won in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while in Berlin the Left took first place, according to an analysis by the Experts Club analytical center.
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, AfD received 38.2% of the vote, compared with 16.7% in the previous elections in 2021. The Social Democratic Party of Germany received 35.5%, the Left — 6.5%, and the Greens — 5.7%. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union received 4.9% and, for the first time in history, failed to cross the five-percent threshold in a state election.
The CDU received 13.3% in the previous election in this state, meaning it lost more than 8 percentage points of support. According to the preliminary distribution of seats, AfD receives 32 seats, the SPD — 29, while the Left and the Greens receive five each. Since the other parliamentary forces rule out a coalition with AfD, the voting result alone does not determine the composition of the future state government.
In Berlin, the results demonstrated a different political configuration. The Left received 25.7% of the vote, compared with 12.2% in the previous election. The CDU came second with 18.8%, AfD received 16.3%, the Greens — 14.3%, and the SPD — 12.1%. The incumbent coalition of the CDU and the Social Democrats lost its parliamentary majority.
Experts Club points out that the September 20 results continued a trend that emerged at the beginning of the month. On September 6, AfD took first place in the election in Saxony-Anhalt with 43.8%, while the CDU received 17.2%. In 2021, the CDU had 37.1% in this state, while AfD had 20.8%.
Thus, according to Experts Club, the results of the September elections should not be reduced exclusively to a movement of the German electorate in a single ideological direction. In two eastern states, AfD received the greatest support, while in Berlin the Left strengthened significantly. This indicates that some voters of traditional parties are shifting toward different alternative political forces depending on the region and the structure of local problems.
According to Infratest dimap, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern AfD managed to mobilize around 66,000 citizens who had previously not voted, as well as attract around 48,000 former SPD voters and approximately 32,000 former CDU supporters.
At the same time, the SPD’s result in this state is largely associated with the personal support enjoyed by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Almost half of Social Democratic voters surveyed after the election said that they would not have supported the party without her. This demonstrates the importance of the personal ratings of state-level politicians even when their parties have weaker positions at the federal level.
A separate problem for the CDU was voters’ perception of the party’s economic competence. Only 13% of respondents in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern named the CDU as the political force best able to solve economic problems. Some 89% of respondents also agreed with the statement that before the federal election the party had promised a great deal but delivered little. These results characterize one specific federal state and cannot automatically be applied to Germany as a whole.
In Berlin, one of the central factors of the campaign was the housing issue. The Left focused attention on rental costs, the shortage of affordable housing and regulation of the activities of large property owners. At the same time, migration and security remained among the important issues for AfD voters.
“These elections show not a linear movement of German society in one ideological direction, but a fragmentation of the electorate. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, protest is concentrated around AfD, while in Berlin the Left became the main recipient of the protest vote and the vote of young urban residents. In other words, the common denominator is not ideology, but the declining ability of traditional parties to keep different groups of voters within the former model of the political center,” said sociologist and co-founder of the research company Active Group Oleksandr Poznii.
According to him, the mobilization of citizens who had not previously participated in elections is particularly illustrative. This may indicate not only a redistribution of the already established electorate, but also an expansion of the base of individual political forces.
Poznii also drew attention to the decline in confidence among some voters in the CDU’s traditional economic competence. In his view, for centrist parties the coming months will be associated primarily with the need to restore the confidence of different groups of voters, rather than only with personnel discussions.
Federal dynamics also demonstrate changes in party support. In the September ARD-DeutschlandTrend conducted by Infratest dimap from August 31 to September 2 among 1,319 voters, AfD was supported by 27% of respondents, the CDU/CSU by 21%, the Greens by 15%, the SPD by 13%, and the Left by 12%.
At the same time, state elections do not directly change the composition of Germany’s federal government or Berlin’s foreign policy. However, they influence the domestic political debate on the economy, budget spending, energy, migration and other issues.
The preliminary results of the elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin were released on the night of September 21. The final results are to be approved after the electoral records are checked.
The material was prepared on the basis of a study by the Experts Club analytical center, “AfD won in Mecklenburg, the Left in Berlin: regional elections increased pressure on Germany’s traditional parties,” published on September 21, 2026. Experts Club study on Experts.news
