In his analytical video published on the Experts Club YouTube channel, Maxim Urakin, founder of the project and PhD in Economics, focuses on the key indicator of global macroeconomics – gross domestic product (GDP), which plays a central role in analyzing the economic well-being of countries. GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country over a certain period of time. This indicator helps to assess how productive a country’s economy is and is an important indicator of its overall economic well-being.
Analyzing GDP dynamics on a global scale
According to Urakin, analyzing the last decades shows significant changes in the global economy.
“In the 1990s to 2000s, first of all, there was significant economic growth in countries such as the US and China, as well as in developing countries such as India. It was a time of economic prosperity for developed countries and a period of rapid growth for some emerging markets,” explained the founder of Experts Club.
But then the world economy was rocked by crises, including the global financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent European debt crisis. These events, according to Expert Club, slowed global GDP growth and exposed the vulnerability of many economies previously considered promising.
“In recent years, we have faced new challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a significant downturn in the global economy, and geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine. These events have re-emphasized the interconnectedness and interdependence in the global economy,” said Urakin.
GDP and geopolitical changes
Urakin notes that in the context of geopolitics, GDP serves not only as a measure of economic development but also as an indicator of international influence.
“India, surpassing the UK, has become the fifth largest economy in the world, which emphasizes the shift of global economic forces to the Asian region. This is also confirmed by the fact that China, having overtaken the US in terms of purchasing power, has confirmed its status as a global economic power,” the economist emphasized.
Future trends
Analysis of global GDP dynamics shows that the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, but geopolitical instability has a restraining effect on this growth. According to Maxim Urakin, it is important to monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. Ukraine, in this context, needs to focus on strengthening domestic political stability, restoring economic potential and continuing reforms to improve its post-war prospects and strengthen its position on the global stage.
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GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country over a given period of time (usually a year). It measures a country’s total output and economic activity, being one of the key indicators of its economic health.
Nominal GDP is an estimate of gross domestic product expressed in current market prices, not adjusted for inflation or deflation. This means that when measuring nominal GDP, current prices of goods and services are taken into account, which can lead to higher GDP when prices rise (inflation), even if actual output has not increased.
PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) GDP is a method of estimating GDP that takes into account differences in the cost of living and price level between countries. The PPP GDP calculation uses prices adjusted to reflect real purchasing power in different countries. This allows for a more accurate comparison of living standards and economic activity between countries because it takes into account differences in the cost of goods and services in different places.
In 2023, Ukraine received external financing totaling $42.5 billion, of which $11.6 billion (27%) was non-repayable grant aid, the Ministry of Finance reported.
“Long-term concessional loan financing totaling $30.9 billion was attracted, in particular from the EU ($19.5 billion), the IMF ($4.5 billion), Japan ($3.4 billion), Canada ($1.8 billion), the UK ($1 billion), the World Bank ($660 million), and Spain ($50 million),” the report cites statistics on revenues.
Grant assistance was provided by the United States, Japan, Norway, Germany, Spain, Finland, Switzerland, Ireland, Belgium, and Iceland.
“Funds from the EU were raised as part of macro-financial assistance. Loans under the EU macro-financial assistance programs have a 35-year maturity (including a 10-year grace period), and the costs of servicing them are reimbursed by the EU,” the Ministry of Finance said.
As of the end of 2023, the weighted average cost of public and publicly guaranteed debt was 6.24%, which is 1.4 percentage points less than in the previous year, the Ministry added.
At the same time, the weighted average term to maturity of Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt increased by more than two years to 10.56 years last year.
In total, in 2023, the total amount of Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt increased by UAH 1,444 billion in hryvnia equivalent and by $33.9 billion in dollar equivalent, mainly due to an increase in long-term concessional financing from international partners.
As of December 31, 2023, Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 5.5 trillion, or $145.3 billion.
A detailed video analysis of the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtu.be/byJnfmie7bM?si=ZI410qh5NBA-jcpi
The German economy may enter recession in the first quarter of 2024, the Bundesbank said in its monthly report. According to the German central bank, the country’s GDP is likely to decline slightly again in January-March.
It contracted by 0.3% in quarterly terms in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The final data will be presented on Friday.
As negative factors for the German economy, the Bundesbank notes a significant decline in demand for industrial exports, the likely continued restraint of consumers in spending, increased uncertainty about climate policy, a decrease in order books in industry and construction, as well as strikes, including in rail transport and aviation.
Exports of goods from Ukraine in 2023 fell by 18.5% year-on-year – from $44.2 billion to $36 billion, while imports increased by 14.4% – from $55.5 billion to $63.5 billion, the State Customs Service said on Friday.
As a result, according to its data, Ukraine’s foreign trade turnover for 2023 decreased by only 0.3% to $99.4 billion.
It is specified that taxable imports amounted to $52.6 billion, or 83% of the total volume of imported goods. It is noted that the tax burden per 1 kg of taxable imports in 2023 increased by 38% to $0.49/kg.
According to the released data, the most imported goods to Ukraine were China – in the amount of $10.4 billion, Poland – $6.6 billion and Germany – $4.9 billion, while the most exported were Poland – $4.7 billion, Romania – $3.7 billion, as well as China – $2.4 billion.
In the total volume of imported goods in 2023, 65% were machinery, equipment and transport – $19.8 billion (during customs clearance of such goods, UAH 141.7 billion or 31% of customs payments were paid to the budget), chemical products – $11 billion (UAH 74.8 billion or 16% of customs payments were paid to the budget) and fuel and energy products – $10.3 billion (UAH 103.4 billion or 23% of customs payments).
The top 3 exports from Ukraine in 2023 were food products – $21.8 billion, metals and metal products – $3.9 billion, as well as machinery, equipment and transport – $2.9 billion
The State Customs Service specified that 559.2 million UAH was paid to the budget during customs clearance of exports of goods for which the export duty was established.
For more details on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byJnfmie7bM
Subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2023 increased 2.8 times compared to the same period of 2022 – to $24.351 billion from $8.570 billion, the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) said on Monday.
According to its data, exports of goods from the country during the period decreased by 18.9% compared to January-November 2022 – to $32.978 billion, while imports increased by 16.5% – to $57.329 billion.
The State Statistics Committee specified that in November-2023 compared to October-2023, seasonally adjusted exports increased by 3.1% to $2.583 billion, while imports decreased by 9.5% to $4.749 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in November-2023, as in the previous month, was negative at $2.166 billion compared to $2.741 billion before.
The export-import coverage ratio in January-November 2023 was 0.58 (0.83 in January-November 2022).
State Statistics specified that foreign trade operations were conducted with partners from 228 countries.
For more details on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byJnfmie7bM
Subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
In a new episode of the Experts Club YouTube channel, Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine
Maksim Urakin cited data from Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies, who estimates that about 50% of citizens will return after the war.
“Demographics is an important factor for economic recovery, but the threat of depopulation and labor shortages cannot be ignored. In the medium term, the decline in the demographic growth potential in Ukraine can only be offset by migration,” Urakin emphasized.
The expert noted that the main risks to the economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international aid.
“In the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 8.2%. The negative balance of foreign trade increased 3.2 times, which is an alarming signal. The public debt has slightly decreased compared to August figures, but in 2024 it may exceed the country’s GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability,” the economist said.
Prospects for the Global Economy
The founder of Experts Club also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth in 2024 to 2.2%.
“One of the key reasons for the slowdown in global economic growth is the decline in GDP in developed countries. We are witnessing the lowest GDP growth in developed countries since the 1980s, with the exception of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The unprecedented cycle of interest rate hikes by major central banks in recent years has also played a significant role in slowing growth. These rate hikes are driven by the need to control inflation, but at the same time, they limit economic activity,” the expert explains.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to restore Ukraine after the war and manage the public debt.
For more information on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, please see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byJnfmie7bM
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ECONOMY, economy review, EXPERTS CLUB, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN, world economy
