Stagflation will be a key risk for the global economy in 2023, according to investors who say hopes of a market rally are premature after this year’s massive sell-off.
Nearly half of the 388 respondents in the new MLIV Pulse survey said a scenario in which economic growth continues to slow while inflation remains high will dominate the world next year. A deflationary recession is considered the second most likely scenario, while a recovery with high inflation is considered the least likely scenario.
The survey results signal that next year will again be a difficult one for risky assets after central bank measures to tighten monetary policy, rising inflation and a full-scale war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine triggered the most significant stock market crash since the 2008 global financial crisis, Bloomberg writes. More than 60 percent of those surveyed say investors around the world are still overly optimistic about asset prices.
“Next year is still going to be a tough one,” said Buffalo International Fund portfolio manager at Kornitzer Capital Management Inc. Nicole Kornitzer.
“Definitely stagflation is expected at this point,” the expert notes.
Meanwhile, about 60% of those surveyed expect the dollar to weaken further. That contrasts with the October survey, when nearly half of respondents expected to hold long dollar positions ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in November.
“The dollar is likely to weaken over the course of 2023,” Cornitzer said. – Perhaps not very significantly, but the trend will probably be downward.”
All investors’ attention is focused on what the Fed will do next, with economic growth likely to come under even more pressure as interest rates remain high for longer. Another risk to the global economy is China’s “zero tolerance” policy to the coronavirus, experts say.
Stagflation (a word combination of stagnation + inflation) is a situation in which economic recession and a depressed economy (stagnation and rising unemployment) are combined with rising prices – inflation.
The invention of the term is attributed to British politician and Minister of Finance of the early 1970s, Ian McLeod. The expression was first used by MacLeod in a parliamentary speech in 1965.
The World Bank predicts the growth of the economy of Uzbekistan in 2022 by 5.3%, according to the updated WB economic review for the Europe and Central Asia region.
Earlier in April, the World Bank expected the country’s GDP to grow by 3.6% this year.
“According to forecasts, Uzbekistan’s GDP growth will slow to 5.3% in 2022 (in 2021 the economy grew by 7%) and will be 4.9% in 2023. Increasing difficulties in the field of logistics (supplies) associated with sanctions against Russia, will slow down the growth of private consumption,” the document says.
At the same time, according to the WB, private investment and exports are expected to grow steadily, and the current account balance of payments will improve, as Uzbekistan continues to benefit from high world commodity prices (gold, copper, natural gas) and increased remittances from labor migrants. .
“Foreign direct investment is not expected to increase in 2022, and the trade deficit will be covered primarily by government borrowing,” the review said.
According to the World Bank, higher commodity export revenues and “slow” government investment spending will reduce the budget deficit from 6.2% of GDP in 2021 to 4.4% in 2022. However, the deficit will be higher than planned (at 3%) due to higher government spending on social protection, health care, education and infrastructure development.
The government is expected to continue to adhere to its own borrowing restrictions. Thus, public debt and total external debt will gradually decrease to 32% and 55% of GDP, respectively, by the end of 2024.
The state budget of Uzbekistan for 2022 included GDP growth at the level of 5.9%, the inflation rate was planned to be reduced to 9%.
Earlier, the EBRD raised its growth forecast for the economy of Uzbekistan from 4% to 5.5%. The ADB forecast for the growth rate of the economy of Uzbekistan for the current year has not changed – 4%. According to the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan, in the first half of the year, the country’s GDP increased by 5.4%.
Ukrainian industry is one of the sectors of the economy most affected by the war. Since February 24, many large enterprises, primarily in the east and south of the country, have lost their production capacities, and the staff was forced to evacuate. At the same time, individual production facilities were transferred to the western regions, where they are being restored on the basis of more modern industrial facilities, such as industrial parks that appeared shortly before the war.
The Open4business portal spoke about the future of Ukrainian industry and the prospects for the restoration of production with Igor Stakovychenko, an expert in the field of economics.
According to the expert, the production of goods with high added value should become a priority for the development of the economy for decades to come.
“Before the aggression, our industry worked mainly according to standards that were not particularly modernized in 30 years of independence. This is the so-called canonical model, when you have raw materials, workshops, shipping, logistics, and so on. And there must also be stable consumers who will always buy products. Many plants with such a system failed the market test and closed down. Mostly giants remained, who more or less adapted. After the war, it will definitely not be possible to rebuild production in the same form, a fundamentally new model is needed, ”Igor Stakovichenko is sure.
The expert noted that in the modern world, the modernization of production involves the introduction of new management methods, as well as the creation of more adaptive sites, such as industrial zones or parks.
“If you have a workshop for the production of one specific part, which is itself part of a complex and long chain for creating the final product, then the situation above is rather precarious in modern conditions since you depend on many factors: suppliers, market situation, current conjuncture. If you have, for example, a 3D printer that can produce any shape to order for a specific client, then the situation is more stable for you, since you can quickly reorient yourself when the market changes. In the modern world, the industry is striving for greater universalization,” explained Igor Stakovichenko.
According to him, the restoration of the industry should begin now and be based, firstly, on the creation of industrial parks in safe regions, and secondly, on the modernization of existing industries for new models. As an example, Stakovichenko cites the development of this concept in Poland or the Czech Republic, where industrial zones already provide up to 50% of GDP.
“The government is now acting in the right direction, providing tax incentives to such industrial zones, this will lay the foundation for the rapid restoration of the country’s industrial potential in the post-war period,” Stakovichenko summed up.
ECONOMY, IGOR STAKOVICHENKO, INDUSTRY, MARKETS, PRODUCTION, STAKOVICHENKO
Yesterday, the Cabinet of Ministers included the pharmaceutical industry in the list of priority sectors of the economy, thereby strengthening state support in this area. Since the beginning of the war, the main pharmaceutical companies in Ukraine have generally maintained their production capacities, while several enterprises suffered as a result of Russian strikes, in particular, in March, the warehouses of the Farmak pharmaceutical plant burned down in Makarov, Kyiv region. The damage then, according to the enterprise, amounted to about 1.5 billion hryvnia.
How important is state support for pharmaceutical manufacturers now, and will the industry be able to provide Ukrainians with medicines in full? Igor Stakovichenko, an expert in the field of economics, answered these and other questions for the Open4business portal.
In his opinion, now the production of medicines should be equated by the state with the provision of the army, since in a warring state medicine is one of the foundations of a stable situation at the front and in the rear.
“It is hard to imagine that the army will be able to fight effectively if it is not provided with high-level medical support. At the same time, the production of its own medications is strategically important for the state. Supplies from Western partners are good, but having your own working pharmaceutical industry in such a difficult time is much better And this is understood in the government,” Igor Stakovichenko believes.
According to the expert, pharmaceutical production in Ukraine today is able to provide both the army and the population with a significant part of the necessary medicines. Igor Stakovichenko believes that the government’s timely decisions taken since the beginning of the war made it possible to quickly adapt the industry to new conditions.
“In particular, back in the spring, amendments were adopted to the law “On Medicines”, limiting the export of certain vital drugs. In addition, they significantly simplified the registration of pharmaceuticals during the war, creating an emergency procedure. This was done literally on the third day. In general, the government’s decision on The inclusion of pharmaceutical production in the list of priority industries is a continuation of the policy of supporting the industry, which has been outlined since the beginning of the war. Such support should remain at the level of the main state priorities,” stressed Igor Stakovichenko.
ECONOMY, MARKETS, MEDICINE, PHARMA, STAKOVICHENKO, ИГОРЬ_СТАКОВИЧЕНКО
The export IT industry in January-May 2022 provided foreign exchange earnings to the Ukrainian economy in the amount of $3.2 billion, the IT Ukraine Association reported.
“During the three war months – March-May – the volume of exports of computer services increased by 6% compared to the same period of the previous year. In the first five months of 2022, the export IT industry provided foreign exchange earnings to the Ukrainian economy in the amount of $ 3.2 billion. On June 1, 2022, IT companies and individual entrepreneurs working in the IT industry transferred taxes and fees in the amount of about UAH 30 billion,” the association’s website said on Thursday.
According to the ITU, among other things, the stable operation of the industry allowed the IT sector to allocate more than UAH 1 billion for humanitarian purposes and support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“At the same time, the IT industry is fighting on several fronts. 3% of professionals serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, approximately 12-15% are involved in the cyber front,” the association notes.
As reported, IT Ukraine notes the high resilience of the Ukrainian IT market in the conditions of the active phase of hostilities: during the war, 77% of IT companies attracted new customers, more than half of the companies plan to grow by 5-30% in 2022.
IT Ukraine is the largest association of IT companies, uniting 118 members and more than 80 thousand IT specialists.
In its new video, the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” analyzed the situation in the Ukrainian economy before the start of the Russian aggression. As you know, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has temporarily suspended the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months from the moment it ends. The exception is the publication of data on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021, as well as for the period January-February 2022.
If we return to the indicators of the beginning of the year, at that time we could talk about economic growth and recovery after the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, says the founder of the Club of Experts, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maxim Urakin.
“Officially, the number of unemployed in the country, according to the State Employment Center, as of January 2022, was just over 358,000 people. In this direction, there was a positive trend and the recovery of jobs after the labor market crisis that was caused by the pandemic,” he explained.
In addition, the expert noted that according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 grew by 3.4% after a decline of 3.8% a year earlier. At the same time, there was an increase in industrial production and retail trade within the country.
“Industrial production in Ukraine in 2021 increased by 1.1% after a 5% drop in 2020. At the same time, in 2021, compared to the twentieth, the retail trade turnover increased significantly, by more than ten percent and amounted to more than one trillion four hundred forty-three billion hryvnia,” Urakin added.
All this, according to the founder of the Club of Experts, may indicate that in the pre-war period the country’s economy showed positive indicators of development.
The full video can be viewed on the YouTube channel “Expert Club” at the link:
