Foreign direct investments in the economy of Ukraine in the III quarter of 2021 (operations, $ million)
NBU
The amount of direct losses incurred by Ukraine’s infrastructure from full-scale Russian military aggression has already reached $119 billion, work is underway to compensate for them at the expense of the seized gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, First Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Denys Kudin has said.
“When the president’s office yesterday or the day before yesterday announced over $100 billion, this figure is somewhat clarified. It is $119 billion. Unfortunately, it will grow with every next day of the war,” he said on Ukrainian TV channels.
According to Kudin, one of the ways to compensate for losses and restore infrastructure is to work through cooperation with Western governments. “Western governments have already seized the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Russia in the amount of $415 billion. In fact, this amount is almost enough to cover these direct one-time losses,” the first deputy minister said.
According to him, the Ministry of Economy expects that in the near future, together with partner governments of other countries, a legal mechanism will be found, how this money can go to Ukraine for further recovery.
The first deputy minister said that the Ministry of Economy from the first day began to count the losses that the state suffered due to Russian aggression. According to him, in addition to the direct approach to determining the damage (how much it will cost to restore bridges, roads, infrastructure facilities, hospitals, kindergartens, schools destroyed by Russia), there is a second approach – the amount of GDP losses.
“We see that in cities and towns where active hostilities are taking place, economic activity has decreased by 75%. In the rest of Ukraine, only every second business operates. This is a loss of 50% of economic activity,” Kudin said.
He added that most of the metallurgical plants, most of which are located in the east of the country, have ceased their activities. “The blocking of sea routes by the Russians, of course, does not make it possible to fully export corn, wheat, sunflower oil – traditional agricultural export products,” the first deputy head of the Ministry of Economy said.
According to him, among other ways for Russia to compensate for these losses is the judicial, claims work of the government of Ukraine against the Russian Federation in international courts. “We are talking about the International Criminal Court, and about the ECHR, and about commercial arbitrations around the world. In each of these courts, Ukraine files lawsuits against the Russian Federation,” Kudin said.
He said that the collection of evidence from Ukrainians about the destruction has begun in electronic form, since it is important to document every fact of destruction jointly by all the people so that this becomes the material basis for claims.
The first deputy head of the Ministry of Economy also named a third way to receive compensation for damage from the aggressor – “the way of reparations after the signing of a peace treaty and the actual surrender of the enemy.” “They [reparations] can be in two forms – in cash and in kind. In the form of reparations, they could receive energy resources and other types of material values that Ukraine needs,” Kudin said.
As reported, Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 for the first time amounted to about $200 billion.
Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021, according to preliminary estimates, will amount to 3.2%, which won’t compensate for the 4% economic decline in 2020, head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Bohdan Danylyshyn has said.
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022 to 3.2%, and in 2023 to 3.5%, while in October last year it expected it to increase accordingly by 3.5% and 3.7%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its estimate of the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 from 3.8% to 3.4%, in 2021 – to 3% from 3.1%.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2021 fell by 13.2% compared to January-November 2020, to $3.607 billion from $4.158 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in 2021 accelerated to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019.
Inflation in the raw food group of goods in 2022 may range from 10% to 20%, which will lead to an inflationary jump to 8-10% and, in turn, will require anti-crisis measures, adviser to the Ukrainian president Oleh Ustenko has said.
The deficit of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine in 2021 amounted to UAH 166.8 billion, while the plan was UAH 220.9 billion, and in December the deficit of the general fund was UAH 109.1 billion, the Ministry of Finance reported with reference to the operational data of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
The total state debt of Ukraine in December grew by 4.04% in U.S. dollars to $97.95 billion, in hryvnias by 4.43%, to UAH 2.671 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance, released on Wednesday.
Industrial production in Ukraine grew by 1.1% in 2021, while a 5.2% decline was recorded in 2020.
Ukraine in January-November 2021 sold industrial products (goods, services) worth UAH 3.185 trillion, which is 44.2% more than in January-November 2020 (UAH 2.209 trillion), including outside the country in the amount of UAH 920.471 billion.
Real wages in Ukraine in December 2021 increased by 11.9% compared to December 2020, and compared to November 2021, the growth was 21.5%.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in 2021 increased by 5.1% compared to 2020, while the growth rate in 2020 compared to 2019, according to updated data, was 5.6%.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine in 2021 increased transportation of goods by 3.3% compared to 2020 – up to 619.9 million tonnes.
Since the beginning of the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of January 21, Ukraine has exported 36.08 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 27.6% more than the figures for the same date of the previous marketing year.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin.
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Ukraine will spend at least $4-5 billion to stabilize the economic situation, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.
“To stabilize our economy, we will spend about $4-5 billion. I do not count on a smaller figure, this is the amount we need,” Zelensky said at a briefing with foreign media representatives in Kyiv on Friday.
The President said that the West, providing Ukraine with funding and assistance, gives an appropriate signal of support for the country.
“But the question is still not in the amount, but in the fact that they believe in the economy of Ukraine and send the appropriate signals,” Zelensky said.
Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal says there are currently no threats to the functioning of the national economy, except for disinformation pressure.
“There are no threats to the functioning of the national economy, except for information, especially disinformation pressure. There are no other factors that can destabilize the national economy today,” Shmyhal said after the NSDC meeting on Monday evening.
